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NFL experts predict: Week 1 upset picks, fantasy football flops and sleepers

Our panel of NFL experts predicts Week 1's biggest upsets, fantasy football flops and potential sleepers, plus makes a few predictions on the season.

Dive into what our analysts think of Jimmy Garoppolo, Philip Rivers, Dede Westbrook and more players.

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Now's your chance to stake your claim for after Week 1. Which one player will we all be talking about on Monday?

Mike Clay, NFL writer: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. It's a big year in Dallas, as Prescott, Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott all are eyeing pricey contract extensions. Prescott will get his chance to make his case that he's one of the league's best at the position with a light early-season slate that includes a home game with the Giants in Week 1. Expect Prescott to put up big numbers in a commanding victory ... even if Elliott remains out.

Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. Slow preseason notwithstanding, the Week 1 matchup against the Buccaneers is a nice, soft landing for his return from injury. It's a big year for coach Kyle Shanahan and Jimmy G in San Francisco, and I say it gets off to a quick start.

Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Jadeveon Clowney, DE, Seahawks. On Sunday, Seattle's defense faces a Bengals offensive line that's still a work in progress; don't be surprised if Clowney makes an impact from the jump, especially if Ziggy Ansah returns, as expected, on the other side of the Seahawks' front.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns. The Browns have talked all offseason, but Beckham knows he can validate that talk with a monster debut in Cleveland. And offensive coordinator Todd Monken will design plays for Beckham and Baker Mayfield to connect early and often.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Jacoby Brissett, QB, Colts. The opportunity for Brissett is obvious: Play well and a Colts team that has done so much right should be competing for the AFC South again. His first challenge is a good one against the Chargers in Week 1.


In Week 1 last year, the Bucs beat the Saints in a shootout. What's your top upset pick for Week 1 this season?

Clay: Cardinals (+2.5) over Lions. I'm higher than most on the Lions this season, but an opening-week trip to Arizona to face a new-look Cardinals team will be a tough challenge. Though not having Patrick Peterson and Robert Alford could make it tough to slow Detroit's passing game, the fast-paced, Kyler Murray-led Cardinals will put enough points on the board to lead coach Kliff Kingsbury to a 23-21 win in his NFL debut.

Graziano: Jaguars (+4) over Chiefs. Jacksonville's defense is on a mission to return to what it was two years ago, and the Chiefs' defense is going to take a while to come together, if it does at all. Fast start for Nick Foles in his new home.

Kimes: Packers (+3) over Bears. Green Bay invested heavily in its defense this offseason; I expect that unit to pressure Mitchell Trubisky into making mistakes, and a rejuvenated Aaron Rodgers to give the Packers an edge.

Fowler: Steelers (+5.5) over Patriots. Ben Roethlisberger wants to set a tone after a tumultuous 2018, and a hybrid-heavy Steelers defense looks ready for the Tom Brady chess match at the line of scrimmage -- especially with no fear-inducing tight ends in New England's lineup.

Yates: Bills (+3) over Jets. I like the direction of both the Bills and the Jets, but Buffalo's defense should be the most ready unit of either squad in Week 1, with excellent personnel and coaching. A kicker edge -- the Jets are relying upon recently claimed Kaare Vedvik -- could be the difference.


Now's your chance to stake your claim for the entire season. What's the one prediction you want to put on the record now?

Clay: JuJu Smith-Schuster will be the top-scoring fantasy wide receiver. It's not as bold as it seems with 161 targets freed up following Antonio Brown's departure. Smith-Schuster actually paced all wide receivers in pass routes and ranked third in targets last season and is now positioned for more work in an offense that was pass-heaviest in the league and set a franchise record for touchdowns in 2018.

Graziano: Four rookie quarterbacks will start games for their teams this season -- Kyler Murray, Daniel Jones, Dwayne Haskins and Ryan Finley. By the end of the year, the Bengals will have moved on from Andy Dalton and will be trying to figure out whether Finley might be their future.

Kimes: Both AFC wild-card spots go to teams in the AFC North. The easier bet would be that one would go to the AFC West -- the Chargers being the most likely candidate -- but I think the Browns, Steelers and Ravens are all really strong. And I worry about Los Angeles' injuries, as usual.

Fowler: Philip Rivers wins his first MVP award. He's coming off one of his best statistical seasons, the Chargers' schedule sets up well, and it's all on him with Melvin Gordon gone. Beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead in back-to-back years will give Rivers the street cred he needs here.

Yates: Christian McCaffrey will run for 1,000 yards and catch another 1,000 yards. It's rare air to be in, but he's just that dynamic in both phases of the game. Even if Carolina follows through with its plan to limit his snaps a bit, it doesn't seem that it'll limit his touches much this season.


Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?

Clay: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers. Green Bay is expected to run the ball more often this season, and a Week 1 road matchup against the league's best defense in Chicago is going to make it even harder to get the ball rolling in coach Matt LaFleur's brand-new offense. Rodgers shouldn't be viewed as a good fantasy starter in his 2019 debut.

Graziano: Carson Wentz, QB, Eagles. I think Wentz has a big year, that the Eagles have a legitimate shot at the Super Bowl and even that the Eagles win this game. But for all of Washington's shortcomings, it has a far better defensive front than many realize, and this isn't likely to be one of Wentz's best games of the year.

Kimes: Sony Michel, RB, Patriots. The Steelers' run defense was solid last season; it got even better with the addition of Mark Barron and Devin Bush. There's been a lot of talk about Michel catching passes, but I expect Brady to test Pittsburgh's corners with his receivers.

Fowler: Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs. The Jaguars will dedicate resources to stopping Hill, starting with Jalen Ramsey in blanket coverage and forcing Patrick Mahomes to spread the ball around. Hill will make a few plays but won't blow the game open as he often does.

Yates: Aaron Jones, RB, Packers. While he has plenty of talent, the matchup out of the gates against the Bears gives me pause. Beyond that, with a new coach in Matt LaFleur, we're still waiting to see how exactly the Green Bay backfield shakes out.


Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 1.

Clay: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. Jackson was selected as a QB2 in most fantasy drafts, but you'll want him in your lineup against a stripped-down Miami defense in Week 1. We know Jackson has a high floor thanks to his elite rushing ability, an area he should dominate in against the Dolphins' weak front seven.

Graziano: Will Fuller V, WR, Texans. The Texans are likely to find themselves in a Monday night shootout with the Saints. And while Marshon Lattimore has his hands full with DeAndre Hopkins, Deshaun Watson will be looking deep for Fuller.

Kimes: Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions. With Patrick Peterson sitting out with a suspension and Robert Alford sidelined with a broken leg, the Cardinals' secondary is full of question marks. Matthew Stafford ought to air it out early and often (I expect Kyler Murray to do the same).

Fowler: Dede Westbrook, WR, Jaguars. The Jaguars are thin at receiver but believe Westbrook has 1,000-yard ability. The Chiefs' secondary has a penchant for allowing big plays, and Nick Foles will test Westbrook's elite speed with a few deep balls in their first game together.

Yates: Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, 49ers. The 49ers-Bucs game feels likely to be a high-scoring affair, as both teams have defensive holes to monitor going into the season. Garoppolo needs a good start to help fortify his confidence, and I suspect he'll get it against a Tampa defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in many major categories.