Which receiver will lead the league in targets this season? What about the rookie running back who will have the most rushing yards?
We asked three of our NFL analysts to predict the stat leaders in 23 categories and explain their picks. Then we asked an anonymous NFL executive to give his picks for every category.
Here are their picks for the top passer, rusher, receiver and more, along with Mike Clay's projections (as of Aug. 29) for each category:
Jump to a position:
Quarterbacks | Running backs
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Which QB will have the most passing yards?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. Last season, Mahomes threw for 5,097 yards -- at 8.9 yards per attempt -- and led the NFL with 85 attempts of plus-20 yards. Under Andy Reid, the Chiefs will once again create explosive play opportunities in the passing game, and Kansas City added yet another weapon for Mahomes with rookie wide receiver Mecole Hardman. He's a true blazer with 4.3 40-yard dash speed.
Dan Graziano, National NFL writer: Matt Ryan, Falcons. This is a high-octane passing offense loaded with pass-catching talent, combined with a schedule littered with soft passing defenses and a quarterback who has surpassed 4,000 yards eight years in a row and 4,900 in two of the past three.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers. Although emulating last year's gargantuan 675 passing attempts is unlikely, Roethlisberger has firmly established himself as one of the highest-volume quarterbacks per season, averaging 38.3 attempts per game the past six years. Antonio Brown is gone, but the supporting cast is still excellent.
Anonymous NFL exec: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Mike Clay's projection:
1. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: 4,773
2. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 4,735
3. Matt Ryan, Falcons: 4,627
Which QB will throw the most touchdown passes?
Bowen: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. The passing-game matchups in Kansas City give Mahomes the edge. So does his rare ability to make second-reaction throws when his primary reads are taken away. Mahomes might not top the 50-touchdown mark again this season, but he'll finish as the league leader.
Graziano: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. I don't see him getting to 50 again, but it wouldn't floor me if he did.
Yates: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs. Do I really need to explain why?
Anonymous NFL exec: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
Clay's projection:
1. Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: 35
T2. Carson Wentz, Eagles: 32
T2. Baker Mayfield, Browns: 32
Which QB will throw the most interceptions?
Bowen: Philip Rivers, Chargers. The past five seasons, Rivers has thrown 74 interceptions. That ranks second to Blake Bortles' 75 picks in the same stretch. Rivers is going to challenge tight windows and take some risk with the ball. In fact, watching Rivers reminds me a little bit of playing with Brett Favre. Aggressive throwers.
Graziano: Kyler Murray, Cardinals. He's a rookie slated to play the whole 16-game season in an offense that's going to throw the ball a ton, and we're not even sure yet if that offense is going to work. I believe in Murray and have high hopes for him as an NFL player, but to throw as much as he likely will with as little experience as he has? I think that leads to a high INT total.
Yates: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers. My thinking for this pick started by finding a quarterback who is likely to start 16 games without a backup breathing down his neck, then evaluating those with good job security but for a habit of risk. Winston checks those boxes and will take chances: Coach Bruce Arians lives by the "no risk it, no biscuit" mantra.
Anonymous NFL exec: Jameis Winston, Buccaneers
Clay's projection:
1. Jameis Winston, Buccaneers: 17
T2. Sam Darnold, Jets: 16
T2. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: 16
Which QB will lead the league in Total QBR?
Bowen: Carson Wentz, Eagles. With Wentz entering 2019 healthy, plus some offensive upgrades at the skill positions in Philly, I expect the Eagles QB to be in the MVP discussion. Plus, Wentz's ability to pick up some yards on the ground will boost his overall QBR.
Graziano: Dak Prescott, Cowboys. He was third and fourth in this category his first two years in a league, and yes, he dropped to 17th last season, but with a full season of Amari Cooper, Travis Frederick back at center and the expectation (yes, still) that Ezekiel Elliott shows up in time for Week 1, let's take a flier and say Prescott will have his best year yet.
Yates: Deshaun Watson, Texans. He's accurate in the vertical passing game and precise in the timing passing game. He doesn't frequently throw interceptions, and he is still improving as a player. Watch out for Watson this season.
Anonymous NFL exec: Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs
How many rookie QBs will be starting by Week 8?
Bowen: Three. We know Kyler Murray is slated to start Week 1 for the Cardinals, and I believe the Redskins will turn to Dwayne Haskins early in the season. He gives that offense more juice in the vertical passing game. That leaves Daniel Jones as my third, and I suspect he will get a shot to run the Giants' offense by the middle of the season.
Graziano: Two. Murray and Haskins. If I know the Giants the way I think I do, they'll be stubborn with the Eli Manning/Jones thing and not turn things over to Jones until they're sure they're out of the race.
Yates: Two. In addition to Murray, I suspect Washington will hand the keys to Haskins, and Jones will be another few weeks away.
Anonymous NFL exec: Three. Murray, Haskins and Ryan Finley (Bengals)
Who will be the NFL's leading rusher?
Bowen: Saquon Barkley, Giants. Elliott would have been the pick here if we were assured that the veteran back would be on the field for Week 1. Instead, I'll go with Barkley, who averaged 5.0 yards per carry as a rookie. He also ripped off a league-leading 16 runs of 20 yards or more in 2018. The big-play talent puts him at the top.
Graziano: Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys. I'm still not buying the idea of him missing games. Since he has been in the league, he has led in rushing every year except the one in which he was suspended for six games. He led the league in rushing yards per game that season. If he shows up in time for Week 1, he's the clear-cut favorite in this category.
Yates: Saquon Barkley, Giants. With uncertainty surrounding Elliott's return to the lineup, I'll go with the other obvious choice. Predicting a rushing crown is difficult, as massive rushing production is perhaps a bit less common than one might think: Todd Gurley is the only player with back-to-back seasons of 1,000 rushing yards.
Anonymous NFL exec: Nick Chubb, Browns
Clay's projection:
1. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: 1,376
2. Saquon Barkley, Giants: 1,289
3. Derrick Henry, Titans: 1,265
Who will be the leading rookie rusher?
Bowen: Josh Jacobs, Raiders. It's all about the volume with Jacobs. He's slated to see a heavy workload in Oakland this season. Give me Jacobs -- and his pro-ready traits -- to win the rookie rushing title.
Graziano: David Montgomery, Bears. Sure, I trust Jacobs' opportunity more. But I trust the Bears' offense more than I trust the Raiders' offense, and Montgomery is a guy they love.
Yates: Josh Jacobs, Raiders. This might be the chalkiest piece of these predictions, but why argue against it? He's due for a massive rookie year.
Anonymous NFL exec: Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Clay's projection:
1. Josh Jacobs, Raiders: 1,040
2. David Montgomery, Bears: 968
3. Miles Sanders, Eagles: 775
Who will lead the league in rushing touchdowns?
Bowen: Alvin Kamara, Saints. With 22 rushing touchdowns in the past two NFL seasons, only Gurley -- 30 rushing touchdowns -- has found the end zone more than Kamara. The Saints running back plays for a high-scoring offense, and his contact balance near the end zone is ridiculous.
Graziano: Nick Chubb, Browns. I think the Rams will look to give Gurley breaks, and the goal line might be a place where they can do that. Chubb is the centerpiece of the Browns' running game, and I don't think Kareem Hunt is the threat to his second-half workload that many believe him to be.
Yates: James Conner, Steelers. Pittsburgh is going to visit the red zone frequently, and though there are other talented backs who will contribute to this offense overall, I view Conner as the best option to finish drives. He scored 12 times last season, and that number could grow.
Anonymous NFL exec: Le'Veon Bell, Jets
Clay's projection:
1. Todd Gurley, Rams: 12
2. Derrick Henry, Titans: 12
3. Sony Michel, Patriots: 11
Which RB will have the most catches?
Bowen: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. McCaffrey caught 107 passes in 2018 and sits at 187 receptions over his first two years in the league. In the Carolina offense, McCaffrey is a passing-game weapon. I expect the volume to stay pretty consistent, given his ability to win matchups as a receiving target.
Graziano: Saquon Barkley, Giants. Who else is the Giants' quarterback going to throw it to?
Yates: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. Would it surprise you if McCaffrey posted 1,000 rushing yards and 1,000 receiving yards on 100-plus catches? Me neither.
Anonymous NFL exec: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Clay's projection:
1. Christian McCaffrey, Panthers: 93
2. Saquon Barkley, Giants: 88
3. Alvin Kamara, Saints: 82
Will any RB join the 1,000-1,000 club, and who will it be?
Bowen: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. McCaffrey rushed for more than 1,000 yards in '18 on 219 carries. If that volume stays in the same range, McCaffrey can produce more than 1,000 yards rushing and receiving, given the passing-game impact we just talked about above.
Graziano: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. He's just getting better and better. He's in shape to take on the workload. He has shown that he can be the centerpiece of the offense. McCaffrey will get MVP votes if the Panthers make the playoffs.
Yates: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers. See my answer above. Run CMC is a beast.
Anonymous NFL exec: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Which player will have the most total touchdowns?
Bowen: Alvin Kamara, Saints. If we knew that Gurley would see a consistent workload over the course of the season, then I would go with the Rams running back in an L.A. offense that finishes drives in the red zone. Instead, I'm looking at Kamara, who has totaled 31 touchdowns in his first two years in the league.
Graziano: James Conner, Steelers. I explained my reasoning on Gurley above. I expect Latavius Murray to be a factor in New Orleans, Cam Newton to siphon some of McCaffrey's goal-line work as usual and the Giants' offense to limit Barkley's scoring opportunities. Conner is determined to hold up this year and is a factor in the short passing game as well as the running game.
Yates: Alvin Kamara, Saints. There are so many talented backs in the NFL, but I'm not sure any is a better red zone threat as a pass-catcher than Kamara. He's a ridiculous route runner matched with a playcaller in Sean Payton who has found innumerable ways to get him involved. Plus, of course, there's his rushing ability.
Anonymous NFL exec: Christian McCaffrey, Panthers
Clay's projection:
1. Todd Gurley, Rams: 16
2. Alvin Kamara, Saints: 14
T3. Ezekiel Elliott, Cowboys: 13
T3. Derrick Henry, Titans: 13
Which WR will have the most catches?
Bowen: Michael Thomas, Saints. Thomas led the NFL with 125 receptions in 2018, and I don't see the volume dropping by much, given the passing-game structure in New Orleans. The Saints wide receiver averaged 7.76 air yards per target last season. It's the quick passing game that wins with Thomas, and quarterback Drew Brees doesn't miss much on these high-percentage throws.
Graziano: Michael Thomas, Saints. He's the one Brees trusts the most. He's the one with the big new contract. He's the best route runner with the surest hands. The Saints didn't add much at WR this offseason (though TE Jared Cook will see some usage), and there's no reason to expect Thomas to be used any differently than he was a year ago.
Yates: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans. He led the NFL with a target share north of 33% in 2018, and though that did not include Will Fuller V being healthy for the full season, he's the best bet to continue to dominate targets like a vacuum. He's paired with an excellent quarterback and seemingly catches anything within 12 feet of his catch frame.
Anonymous NFL exec: Michael Thomas, Saints
Clay's projection:
1. Michael Thomas, Saints: 113
T2. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: 103
T2. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers: 103
Which rookie WR will have the most catches?
Bowen: Deebo Samuel, 49ers. I don't expect Samuel to start the season as a high-volume target for the 49ers, but I love his overall fit in Kyle Shanahan's offense. Look for Samuel to emerge as a reliable option in San Francisco's passing game this season.
Graziano: KeeSean Johnson, Cardinals. Flip a coin in Arizona on which receiver will see the most action, but I've had enough league executives and scouts talk this guy up as pro-ready that I'll pick him. The Cardinals, as you might have heard, are going to do some throwing.
Yates: Hunter Renfrow, Raiders. He has a chance to be a day one starter, which is not something we can say about many rookie wideouts. With injuries to N'Keal Harry and Marquise Brown limiting their preseason availability, Renfrow takes the cake. He's going to be very good.
Anonymous NFL exec: KeeSean Johnson, Cardinals
Clay's projection:
1. DK Metcalf, Seahawks: 47
2. Marquise Brown, Ravens: 41
3. A.J. Brown, Titans: 41
Which WR will have the most targets?
Bowen: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans. Over the past three seasons, Hopkins leads the NFL with 503 targets. He is the prime option for quarterback Deshaun Watson in Houston.
Graziano: Michael Thomas, Saints, for all of the reasons I mentioned above.
Yates: DeAndre Hopkins, Texans. Wash, rinse, repeat with my answer regarding Hopkins leading the league in catches. He's just too good to ignore.
Anonymous NFL exec: Michael Thomas, Saints
Clay's projection:
1. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: 158
2. Antonio Brown, Raiders: 155
3. JuJu Smith-Schuster, Steelers: 152
Which WR will have the most receiving touchdowns?
Bowen: Mike Williams, Chargers. Williams saw an 18.8% red zone target share in 2018, posting 10 touchdown grabs. With that long frame and catch radius at the point of attack, Williams has high-end matchup ability for a Chargers offense that will put points on the board.
Graziano: Julio Jones, Falcons. This is the season that makes up for all of the frustration his fantasy owners have felt about this category in recent years.
Yates: Davante Adams, Packers. Perhaps quietly, Adams has 10 or more receiving touchdowns in three straight seasons, and he is the only player in the NFL who can say as much. Call him underrated, call him underappreciated, but know that he is an absolute stud.
Anonymous NFL exec: Mike Evans, Buccaneers
Clay's projection:
1. Davante Adams, Packers: 11
2. Odell Beckham Jr., Browns: 10
T3. DeAndre Hopkins, Texans: 9
T3. Tyreek Hill, Chiefs: 9
Which TE will be the most productive, factoring in yards, catches and touchdowns?
Bowen: George Kittle, 49ers. I don't see Kittle topping his record-breaking numbers from 2018, but the 49ers tight end can still rack up impact numbers this season. It starts with his ability to run after the catch in an offense that creates open-field opportunities in the route tree. The former Iowa Hawkeye is a weapon with the ball in his hands.
Graziano: Travis Kelce, Chiefs. Only a true Iowa homer would go with Kittle over Kelce here. Oh, wait. Sorry, Matt. Didn't see you there.
Yates: Travis Kelce, Chiefs. He led the NFL with 15 games of five or more catches last season and figures to stay nearly as busy this season catching passes from the prodigious Patrick Mahomes.
Anonymous NFL exec: Travis Kelce, Chiefs
Clay's projection:
1. Travis Kelce, Chiefs: 98-1,229-10
2. George Kittle, 49ers: 82-1,151-6
3. Zach Ertz, Eagles: 86-873-8
Which defender will lead the league in sacks?
Bowen: Myles Garrett, Browns. Garrett posted 13.5 sacks last season, but I can see him up near the 16-17 sack range. The natural pass-rushing traits absolutely jump off the screen when watching tape on Garrett. He has freakish stuff.
Graziano: Aaron Donald, Rams. He is the best player in the league on either side of the ball and can do anything he wants to do. And he went to training camp this year, so he's even more ready for this season than he was for the past two. That's scary.
Yates: Aaron Donald, Rams. Because Aaron Donald.
Anonymous NFL exec: Aaron Donald, Rams
Clay's projection:
1. Aaron Donald, Rams: 16
T2. Danielle Hunter, Vikings 13
T2. Joey Bosa, Chargers: 13
4. Cameron Jordan, Saints: 12.5
Which defender will lead the league in interceptions?
Bowen: Eddie Jackson, Bears. He is a natural playmaker who can find the rock. With that Bears pass rush, Jackson will get even more opportunities to finish on the ball. He has star potential.
Graziano: Eddie Jackson, Bears. Once I could no longer pick Derwin James (sniff), I felt like this had to be a Bear because of how incredibly strong they are up front and the opportunities that creates for their studs on the back end. Jackson has all the tools to make all the plays.
Yates: Jalen Ramsey, Jaguars. Whether teams throw the way of Ramsey frequently or not, his length, ball skills and physicality make him an awesome bet to take home this crown. He's going to own this season.
Anonymous NFL exec: Kyle Fuller, Bears
Clay's projection:
T-1. John Johnson III, Rams: 4
T-1. Earl Thomas, Ravens: 4
3. 17 tied with 3
Which rookie defender will make the biggest impact?
Bowen: Devin Bush, Steelers. Bush fills a need at the second level of the Steelers' defense, and the traits are there for the rookie to make an immediate impact. I expect Bush to post high-end numbers for a team that will contend for a division title.
Graziano: Devin Bush, Steelers. He has a chance to be the missing piece that restores the Steelers' defense to its once-dominant ways. He comes into the league out of a Michigan program that prepares its players for the pros. His mindset has impressed his teammates already, and he looks poised to be a young leader.
Yates: Devin White, Buccaneers. White has a chance to be Tampa Bay's best defensive player this season. He's going to pile up tackles and, more importantly, orchestrate a defense that needs to improve dramatically under new coordinator Todd Bowles.
Anonymous NFL exec: Devin Bush, Steelers
Clay's projection:
1. Devin White, Buccaneers: 118 tackles, 2.5 sacks
2. Devin Bush, Steelers: 112 tackles, 2.5 sacks
3. Nasir Adderley, Chargers: 80 tackles, 2 INTs
Which team will lead the league in points per game?
Bowen: Chiefs. Kansas City averaged a league-leading 33.13 points per game in 2018 while ranking second overall in red zone efficiency at 71.8%. This year's offense has even more speed for Andy Reid to plan around.
Graziano: Rams. Are we really going to let the Super Bowl flop distract us from what Sean McVay has accomplished over two years in terms of scoring points? It's tough not to pick the Chiefs here, as I still think their defense has major questions, but I think the Rams will be at least as motivated.
Yates: Chiefs. The Chiefs will roll out much of the same offense that we saw last season, one that did not meet its match hardly at all during the regular season. Patrick Mahomes might not throw 50 touchdowns, but 40 or more would be no surprise.
Anonymous NFL exec: Chiefs
Clay's projection:
1. Chiefs: 29.3
2. Rams: 28.4
3. Saints: 28.2
Which team will have the league's worst defense in points allowed?
Bowen: Cardinals. Arizona has to get through the NFC West slate, and star cornerback Patrick Peterson will miss the first six games of the season. That's tough for a defense that gave up an average of 26.56 points per game last season.
Graziano: 49ers. They're playing the Steelers, Browns, Packers, Falcons and Saints outside of the division and the Rams and Cardinals twice. As much as the 49ers have devoted high draft picks to the front seven in recent years, this still feels like a unit that's full of holes in key spots.
Yates: Buccaneers. The Buccaneers play in a really tough division, are dealing with key injuries and have a talent dearth.
Anonymous NFL exec: Giants
Clay's projection:
1. Buccaneers: 420
2. Giants: 414
3. Raiders: 414
Which team will lead the league in point differential?
Bowen: Saints. The Saints should roll out a top-five scoring offense this season. I'm betting on the New Orleans defense too. It's the pass rush there, plus a secondary with coverage players in Dennis Allen's aggressive scheme.
Graziano: Eagles. They just went 9-7 in a Super Bowl hangover season. It's possible that people are missing out on how dangerous this team is. Philadelphia might have the deepest and most potent roster in the NFL.
Yates: Patriots. The Patriots are a balanced team that frequently ranks well in points allowed on defense. A strong defense and potentially potent offense with a reshaped receiver group make them a good bet.
Anonymous NFL exec: Cowboys
Clay's projection:
1. Rams: +97
2. Saints:+96
3. Patriots: +94
Which new coach will win the most games in Year 1?
Bowen: Freddie Kitchens, Browns. I'm buying the Cleveland offense this season, and that Browns pass rush could be pretty nasty. Kitchens might reach the 10-win mark in his first season as a head coach.
Graziano: Freddie Kitchens, Browns. I'm not picking the Browns to win the Super Bowl or maybe even the division this year, in spite of all the hype. I still worry a little bit about their offensive line and their overall volatility. But I think the other first-year coaches are facing stiffer challenges, and the talent level of Cleveland's roster is impossible to ignore.
Yates: Matt LaFleur, Packers. They should challenge for the NFC North this season, and double-digit wins would not be a surprise. The defensive front is outstanding, and Aaron Rodgers is a wizard.
Anonymous NFL exec: Freddie Kitchens, Browns
Clay's projection:
1. Freddie Kitchens, Browns: 10.0
2. Matt LaFleur, Packers: 9.1
3. Adam Gase, Jets: 7.2