INDIANAPOLIS -- Kyler Murray dominated the 2019 NFL scouting combine without throwing a pass. The Oklahoma quarterback stars in this space as well, headlining 12 compelling combine takeaways that could shake up the NFL this offseason.
Le'Veon Bell, Earl Thomas, Antonio Brown, Derek Carr and even Johnny Manziel make appearances. Oh, and don't forget about Josh Rosen. He's the Arizona Cardinals' starting quarterback -- right now, for sure.
Skip ahead to a topic: Murray vs. Rosen | Jon Gruden's plans
Free agents | Manziel to the Raiders? | Future of Bell, Brown
Takeaway No. 1: There's a growing sense the Cardinals will, in fact, use the No. 1 overall pick for Murray despite having used a 2018 first-round pick for Josh Rosen.
Murray has gone from baseball prospect to potential No. 1 overall NFL pick in short order.
"Arizona is going to take Murray No. 1," a general manager said at the combine.
I asked the GM whether he was betting on it to happen, figuratively.
"I'm not betting," he replied. "I'm telling you, it's going to happen."
As in, take it to the bank? The GM said he was about 75 to 80 percent sure of it, and as I canvassed other league insiders on the subject, most also thought there was fire beneath all the smoke. Cardinals GM Steve Keim did not smother those flames during an on-the-record session with reporters in Indy.
"Is Josh Rosen our quarterback? Yeah, he is, right now, for sure," Keim said.
Arizona has been through this before. The Cardinals drafted Matt Leinart 10th overall in 2006, then fired coach Dennis Green after the season. The next coach, Ken Whisenhunt, entered into an arranged marriage that didn't pan out.
This time, the arranged marriage would be between Rosen and first-year Cardinals coach Kliff Kingsbury. That marriage might wind up being an excellent fit, but the circumstances feel awkward at the moment. Kingsbury was on the record before taking the Arizona job as saying he would select Murray first overall if given the chance to do so.
"I'd rather bet my career on Kyler Murray than on Rosen or any of the other quarterbacks in this draft," an exec said. "Kyler is dynamic. He has the most upside."
Takeaway No. 2: Rosen or Murray? That is not really the question.
Kingsbury's affinity for Murray is obviously part of this equation, but the Cardinals' decision is much bigger than that.
The full question is: Would Arizona rather have Rosen and the No. 1 overall pick, which could be used any number of ways, or would it rather have Murray and whatever Rosen might command in a trade?
On that last part, a coach who has worked with Redskins coach Jay Gruden saw Rosen as a good fit for Washington.
"The downside is that, given the situation, Rosen could be the next coach's quarterback ultimately," this coach said, "but it makes sense. Rosen is a progression passer like Alex Smith. You could start cold and transition to Rosen, knowing Alex might not play again and you have to hedge your bets."
Takeaway No. 3: The Amari Cooper trade that seemed to work so well for Dallas last season carries one potential regret in the eyes of an exec.
"It is too bad Dallas does not have a one [first-round pick]," this exec said, "because the Cowboys would make the most sense for Kyler Murray. If they do not win [much], they'd have a better chance to get a Lincoln Riley."
The Cowboys have not extended coach Jason Garrett's contract beyond the 2019 season. With Murray onboard, they could avoid committing $20 million to $30 million per year to Dak Prescott, who has far exceeded expectations but who also ranked only 17th -- solidly in the third tier -- when I polled 50 coaches and evaluators for my 2018 QB Tiers survey last summer.
Takeaway No. 4: Whether Jon Gruden loves, likes or tolerates Derek Carr is only one aspect to consider when assessing whether the Oakland Raiders will stay the course at quarterback.
The Raiders' pending move to Las Vegas has everything to do with better positioning the franchise from a revenue standpoint, which is why there has been speculation that cash concerns have influenced some of the team's decisions to a greater degree than they might have otherwise.
Speaking of cash: The Raiders are scheduled to pay $20 million in 2019 cash to Carr for a lame-duck season in Oakland before the team relocates.
"Would you trade Carr for a 2020 first[-rounder] that costs you no cash this year?" an exec asked. "Oh, and by the way, the 2020 draft is in Vegas, so now you'd have an extra first-rounder when your team moves there."
The Raiders would need to find a replacement for Carr, of course, and that replacement might not be cheap, but he might be cheaper than Carr. A talented team acquiring Carr could justify giving up the pick on the thinking that the selection might be relatively low in the order, assuming Carr played well.
Takeaway No. 5: There are signs in the buildup to free agency that cash might not be an overriding concern for the Raiders.
An exec plugged into discussions between teams and agents said the Raiders seemed interested in lots of pending free agents. This exec thought the signs were there behind the scenes that Oakland would be aggressive.
"They are in on everyone," this exec said.
Takeaway No. 6: Free agency reeks.
Execs groaned when I showed them a list of the players available in free agency this offseason.
"I can't imagine there being a worse year for free agency," one of them said.
The quality of players available is not the only disincentive for teams.
The NFL's system of compensatory draft choices provides another reason to tread carefully when signing unrestricted free agents from other teams. Heeding this disincentive helped the two best teams in the NFL last season -- the champion New England Patriots and runner-up Los Angeles Rams -- lead the league in comp picks (each received two third-rounders for players they lost but didn't miss).
There are so many other ways to acquire players. Why jeopardize comp picks while wasting limited cash resources by overpaying for UFAs? Some will point to the mostly mediocre players selected with recent comp picks -- small-sample-size alert! -- but that is missing the point.
Comp picks became much more valuable when the NFL made them tradable beginning in 2017.
Would the Patriots give back the third-round comps they received for Nate Solder and Malcolm Butler so they could employ those players on their current deals? Of course not. Similarly, the Rams would not surrender their third-rounders for Trumaine Johnson or Sammy Watkins on those players' deals. Both teams would rather take the comp picks and allocate the cash toward players they value more.
Takeaway No. 7: Not all cap space is the same, one reason why the New York Jets and Indianapolis Colts are on different planets entering free agency.
Overthecap.com projects the Colts will have $106 million in cap space this offseason, compared with $96 million for the Jets. Those figures seem similar, but the underlying fundamentals are vastly different.
The Colts already have $130 million committed to players in 2019, compared to less than $100 million for the Jets. As a result, the Jets would be much more likely to spend aggressively this offseason even if all else were equal.
All else is not equal, starting with GM Mike Maccagnan's tenuous status entering his fifth season. That is why the Jets were a near-unanimous choice among execs as the most desperate team entering free agency.
"Look at what the Jets did with Trumaine Johnson [$14.5 million per year] last year," one exec said. "It is really scary when you look at how bad this free-agent crop is going to be. If you're not careful, you can base your decisions on what is in the best short-term interests of the GM as opposed to the best long-term interests of the team."
The 49ers are another team to watch. They have won 10 game in two seasons under coach Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch. That is the NFL's fourth-lowest total. They have won 17 games over the past four seasons, more than only Cleveland. Does Jimmy Garoppolo's return from injury reverse those fortunes? Can the 49ers afford to assume it will?
"I think there is tremendous pressure to win," an exec said. "They have to get past the Rams and Seahawks in their division."
That is partly why one GM predicted the 49ers would land longtime Seattle safety Earl Thomas in free agency.
Takeaway No. 8: Even though free agency reeks, some players will still come away with sweet-smelling contracts, including these two.
One GM predicted Patriots defensive lineman Trey Flowers could command $15 million per year in free agency despite not being an elite outside rusher.
Another exec thought the bidding for Los Angeles Chargers receiver Tyrell Williams could reach $12 million per year. A third exec projected $10 million to $12 million per season for Williams and mentioned Oakland as a possibility.
Takeaway No. 9: If Johnny Manziel does return to the NFL, Oakland is the logical destination for him.
Gruden's relationship with Manziel and affinity for the quarterback made one exec sure the Raiders would be the team to sign him. Manziel's recent CFL demise was the genesis for that discussion.
Takeaway No. 10: Timing could be everything for the big, surprising moves.
The Raiders traded Khalil Mack right before last season, not when free agency began. Some of that was simply natural timing. However, an exec noted that making controversial moves shortly before the season carries a strategic advantage because teams' revenue streams are locked in by that time. Selling season tickets is no longer a big concern at that point.
"If you are the Lions right now looking up at the Bears, Packers and Vikings, you really have no momentum in the market if you trade your quarterback," an exec said, using Detroit as an example. "If you decide to give your coach a year, trade [Matthew] Stafford and then trade for someone like Case Keenum and pay him a lot less, you could save $15 [million] to $20 million."
Takeaway No. 11: The Steelers' handling of Ben Roethlisberger raised eyebrows.
With receiver Antonio Brown pushing for a trade from Pittsburgh in part because he thinks the team has enabled Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers GM Kevin Colbert doubled down on the organization's support for the quarterback.
Peers respect Colbert's record in Pittsburgh, but they questioned the wisdom behind this approach with Roethlisberger. A personnel director and a defensive coach thought supporting the quarterback so unconditionally could undercut the head coach's ability to hold everyone accountable.
By the way, I found no consensus on where Brown or Le'Veon Bell might wind up next season. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported that Oakland, Tennessee and Washington were leading candidates for Brown.
An exec I spoke with thought Bell's willingness to sit out the 2018 season called into question how badly the running back wanted to play in the future, especially if no team comes close to meeting Bell's expectations.
Takeaway No. 12: Expect Robert Kraft to settle his prostitution-solicitation case with authorities in Florida.
A settlement would result in punishment for the Patriots' owner, but he wouldn't be losing at trial, making it easier for Kraft to uphold public claims that he broke no laws.