Each NFL team's offseason is filled with small moves and marginal personnel decisions. Sometimes, that series of small moves will build a winner. But a big, bold move always helps by dramatically improving talent at an important position or changing the overall direction of the franchise. Football Outsiders has suggested a bold move for each team. Some of these are realistic and others are more far-fetched, but each would provide a significant change and improve the team's chances of winning future Super Bowls.
You might see references to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here. Moves are suggested for each team independently of the moves suggested for other teams; for example, targeting Patrick Peterson in a trade could be a bold move for multiple teams.
Note: Scan through all 32 teams by division, or click the logo below to skip ahead to your team:
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Sign Adam Humphries
For the first time since the uncapped year in 2010, the Cowboys have a sizable amount of cap room to play with -- nearly $50 million. Yes, some of that will go toward signing DeMarcus Lawrence to a long-term deal, and now is the time to start thinking about how to budget the next Dak Prescott contract, but the Cowboys have the space to make a few big moves.
We saw what adding a talented wideout did for Prescott and the Dallas offense, which saw its passing DVOA jump from minus-14.1 percent (29th in the NFL) to 7.7 percent (19th) after adding Amari Cooper. With Cole Beasley, Terrance Williams and Tavon Austin unlikely to return in 2019, the Cowboys need playmakers, preferably at the slot position. Humphries has seen both his production and his efficiency rise every year that he has been in the league, despite Tampa Bay's questionable quarterbacking situation; he'd be an upgrade over Beasley. Sticking him in the slot and letting Cooper and Michael Gallup work outside is the best chance the Cowboys have of turning 2018's late-season offensive improvement into a great 2019 passing attack.
Earl Thomas is obviously a much-desired free agent in Dallas; replacing Jeff Heath is a major need, and Thomas and the Cowboys have been making bedroom eyes at one another for more than a year now. We would make sure to get that slot receiver first, however, and only then add the free safety.
New York Giants: Cut Eli Manning
The Giants seem finally resigned to the fact that the Eli Manning era is nearly over, with most rumors having them either taking a quarterback with their first overall pick or bringing in a free agent such as Nick Foles to run the offense. However, both Manning's agent and local newspaper reports seem to indicate that the team would like to bring Manning back as the starter for 2019, likely as a bridge to a rookie quarterback of the future.
This is a bad idea on multiple levels. Cutting Manning would save $17 million against the salary cap this season, money the Giants could use to fix their holes on the right side of the offensive line or replace Damon Harrison or sign Landon Collins to a long-term deal. If the Giants draft a first-round quarterback, it's exceedingly likely that Manning and all those cap dollars will be on the bench by December, where they won't do any good. Letting Manning go means the preseason and training camp can be devoted to getting the next Giants quarterback ready and devoting the majority of first-team reps and time with coaches to preparing him for action. This isn't a necessity for a young quarterback to become a star -- see Patrick Mahomes, who did just fine after sitting for his rookie season -- but in general, more reps help players get better faster.
In addition, "Rookie QB Replaces Veteran Placeholder" is a slightly less stressful headline than "Rookie QB Replaces Franchise Legend." Manning is a franchise legend, no doubt about it -- but it's time for the Giants to start looking forward, and that means cutting their ties to the past.
Philadelphia Eagles: Cut Jason Peters, Nelson Agholor and Tim Jernigan
As of late February, the Eagles have the second-lowest cap space in the league, with just $2.1 million to spend. Foles, Jordan Hicks, Ronald Darby, Brandon Graham and a half-dozen other key players are pending free agents. The Eagles find themselves in need of some liquidity. That means saying goodbye to some big names.
At age 37, Peters' best days are behind him, as he has struggled to stay healthy the past two seasons. Peters refused to take a pay cut last year, and the Eagles decided to keep him anyway; the $10.5 million in salary-cap space gained by cutting him is too much to pass up this year. Jernigan's back injury last season, suffered away from the team, turned his $11 million salary in 2019 from a guaranteed number to an optional one; he's unlikely to get $11 million on the open market, so the Eagles might be able to cut him and re-sign him to a cheaper deal. It's a deep year in the draft for defensive linemen, too, so it's not the end of the world if Jernigan goes.
That leaves 2015 first-rounder Agholor. He ranked 77th out of 84 receivers (minimum 50 targets) in receiving DVOA last season and has had only one season inside the top 70. The trade for Golden Tate last season showed that the Eagles thought they needed more out of their wideout position than Agholor was providing. Agholor is set to earn $9.4 million on his fifth-year extension; the Eagles can likely get similar production for a much lower rate.
Washington Redskins: Sign Teddy Bridgewater
Washington is in an awkward position, with Alex Smith's future very much in question. As hard as it is to swallow, Washington's best option from here on out is likely to assume that Smith is finished, make other plans at the quarterback position and be delightfully surprised if Smith does attempt to make a comeback in 2020.
Foles is the biggest name on the quarterback market, but Washington is unlikely to be able to fit him under its salary cap while competing with the likes of Jacksonville, Miami and a possible Philadelphia franchise tag. Nor is Washington likely to get a top quarterback prospect in the draft, sitting back at No. 15. The next-best option is Bridgewater, who has remarkably returned to the league following his own career-threatening injury. Bridgewater's one game under center for New Orleans didn't go particularly well, but it was his first start in three years on an offense starting mostly backups. A quarterback room of Bridgewater, Colt McCoy and a midround draft pick (Jarrett Stidham?) is probably the best Washington can (or is willing to) cobble together, given its cap situation.
-- Bryan Knowles
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Trade Danny Trevathan
The Bears need to make sacrifices to salvage their cap situation. Already in the bottom quartile of cap space in the league, with about $11 million available, the Bears probably cannot afford to keep both of their priority free agents, Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan. Additionally, the Bears have dealt away their first- and second-round picks in the upcoming draft. The lack of top draft picks matters because players on rookie deals provide cheap production and depth compared to most veterans. Having fewer such players moving into the next couple of offseasons will hinder the Bears' roster building.
Trevathan should be the cap casualty to clear space. The linebacker is a good player and leader for the Bears, but that is not the argument. Trevathan has just one year left on his contract, and the Bears likely will not be in position to re-sign him. Conversely, Trevathan could be traded for a draft pick or two and net the team $4.75 million in cap savings right now. A number of Chicago's key contracts either end or open up to options during the 2020 offseason, so getting ahead of the curve with some savings and more draft picks for cheap roster spots could be of great value when it comes time to retool the roster next year.
Detroit Lions: Commit to hybrid defense; sign Preston Smith and Shaquil Barrett
Head coach Matt Patricia comes from the Bill Belichick hybrid defense tree. With limited personnel last season, Patricia deviated from his typical 4-3 defensive structure by using outside linebacker Devon Kennard as a pseudo-edge player and mixing up the alignments of the defensive line. It was clear that Patricia had a plan for the defense, but without the experience or talent to make full use of the plan, the Detroit defense fell dramatically short.
The Lions can turn things around by committing to a more hybrid, free-flowing defense, starting by signing Smith. Although Smith never notched more than eight sacks in a season in Washington, he constantly provided pressure off the edge and was a quietly disruptive run defender. He might not be the pure pass-rushing devil Lions fans are hoping for, but his athleticism and schematic ambiguity are perfect for Patricia's defense.
If the Lions really want to spend, they can also make a play for Barrett. He was the third pass-rusher in Denver for years and always played like one of the league's best substitute rushers. Being a high-end sub rusher might not be a flashy title, but given the value of passing and pass rush in this league, the luxury of an effective pass-rusher off the bench is wonderful. A three-headed edge monster of Smith, Barrett and Kennard would provide the Lions just enough pass-rushing juice and versatility to give Patricia a chance to call a real defense.
Green Bay Packers: Cut Tramon Williams; pay Earl Thomas
New faces in the secondary are a must for the Packers. The team's crew of young cornerbacks could blossom into a strong group, but the safety position remains a major question moving forward. As the roster stands now, Kentrell Brice is up as a restricted free agent and might be allowed to walk, and Williams can be cut for a $1.625 million penalty for a net gain of $4.75 million in cap savings.
The sensible, though uncharacteristic, move for Green Bay would be to cut Williams, attempt to keep Brice for as little as possible and make a play for Thomas. Free safeties of Thomas' caliber almost never hit the market, and the Packers' defense desperately needs a new star and leader with the possible departure of Clay Matthews. Thomas would fill Williams' role as the free safety and so much more.
The range and security Thomas provides in the back end would give the Packers' young cornerbacks a reliable environment to develop their skills. Thomas can also pair with hybrid defensive back Tony Brown in moving all around the field if the Packers do not want to limit themselves to strictly one-high safety looks. It is difficult to overstate how much a safety of Thomas' talent and versatility would do for this Packers defense.
Minnesota Vikings: Trade Trae Waynes
If any team has the luxury of trading away a starting cornerback, it is the Minnesota Vikings. Xavier Rhodes is a known quantity and former All-Pro who can lock down one side, but the Vikings also have two young, promising cornerbacks in Holton Hill and Mike Hughes. The pair were rookies last year, one undrafted (Hill) and the other a first-round pick (Hughes), and they flashed their potential when given opportunities, especially Hill.
In turn, Waynes is not exactly expendable, but the Vikings have the depth to move on from him before he needs to be re-signed. Waynes is currently owed just over $9 million for the fifth-year option of his rookie deal. The aforementioned depth at the position, particularly when one of those players was a first-round pick, suggests that the Vikings would be fine skipping out on re-upping Waynes' contract. In that case, they should try to exchange him for a draft pick or two right now, rather than waiting on potentially not re-signing him and earning a compensatory pick in a later draft class. The move would free cap space to spend on the offensive line or elsewhere in free agency.
-- Derrik Klassen
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Sign Sheldon Richardson
The Falcons are the one team in the NFC South with the cap room to do something about their immediate needs in free agency without having to trim their roster first. Better yet, any big-name free-agent signing on the defensive front would empower them to trim their roster, as a sizable chunk of any first-year payment to Richardson (or whomever else) could be offset by cutting the expensive and unproductive Vic Beasley.
Richardson brings with him a track record of production in Atlanta's biggest area of need: Even if they are able to retain Grady Jarrett, the Falcons' defensive line is desperate for an infusion of talent. Richardson can dominate as either a true nose or a 3-technique tackle in Atlanta's version of the 4-3 and even as a 5-technique end on the strong side of the formation. He would enhance the Falcons' front against the run and the pass, which is good because they need plenty of help against both, and allow them to make smaller moves elsewhere in the defensive front on the basis of Richardson's package versatility. With the best free-agent edge rushers -- Frank Clark, Demarcus Lawrence and Jadeveon Clowney -- all candidates for the franchise tag, the best available interior defender would make a very welcome consolation prize.
Carolina Panthers: Trade up for the best possible defensive end
The Panthers are probably too tight against the salary cap to pick up any worthwhile free agent to fill their chasm at defensive end, though they should absolutely sling resources at two or three situational players such as Alex Okafor and Dante Fowler. Instead, the Panthers should make their biggest splash in the draft: packaging their first-round pick with either a second- or both third-rounders ought to get them into the lower reaches of the top 10, where they have a chance at the third defensive end off the board, whether that be Rashan Gary, Clelin Ferrell or somebody else they might prefer.
High-quality edge defenders are a key component of Ron Rivera's defensive system, and the Panthers have the ammunition to make sure Rivera is picking from the widest pool available, rather than settling for who's left in the middle of the round. They might be well served to double- or triple-dip in the later rounds, too.
New Orleans Saints: Trade up for Kyler Murray (if he slides)
The Saints do not have much room to make any genuinely bold move. They are even tighter against the cap than the Panthers. Cuts are unlikely to help: The one player left who could be cut for significant cap savings is starting guard Andrus Peat, who has moonlighted as a viable left tackle during Terron Armstead's frequent injury layoffs. An extension that lowered Peat's 2019 cap hit would be a significant boon to both the future and present of the franchise, but his price is likely to be high.
The draft situation is no better: The Saints have only one pick (No. 62 overall) in the first four rounds, which might mean they need to be dissuaded from throwing next year's picks at this year's board. The only worthwhile exception would be if Murray begins to slide à la Teddy Bridgewater, in which case a package including next year's first or second, depending on the length of the slide, could be worth paying to get a prospective heir apparent for the sake of the future of the franchise.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Trade for Patrick Peterson
One of the big stories from the first half of last season involved reports that Peterson had requested a trade out of Arizona. Although Peterson later denied the story, the rumors persisted beyond the Oct. 30 trade deadline, as people speculated on possible landing spots. None of those potential suitors makes more sense than Tampa Bay: Peterson excelled in Arizona under Bruce Arians and Todd Bowles, and he seems to have become a malcontent only since Arians left. He would immediately become the unquestioned No. 1 corner the Buccaneers desperately need while bringing immediate familiarity with the approach and coverages likely to be deployed by the team's new defensive coordinator.
Tampa Bay is not awash with cap space, but it can free up around $40 million with a few relatively painless cuts and/or trades. For a cornerback this talented, it would almost unquestionably be worth it.
-- Andrew Potter
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Trade Patrick Peterson
Peterson reportedly asked for a trade in October, and though he apologized for that request in January, a deal could still make sense for everyone involved. Peterson remains one of the best cornerbacks in football, but he is also one of the most expensive cornerbacks in football, with cap numbers of $11.9 million and $13.2 million in 2019 and 2020, respectively, according to Over The Cap. Meanwhile, the Cardinals were the league's worst team in 2018. Their next playoff window likely won't open for two more years -- and at that point, if they want to retain Peterson, they'll need to re-sign him to a huge extension just as he enters the decline phase of his career. Peterson admitted that the Cardinals would "have some decisions to make" when he hits free agency in 2021.
The Cardinals can make things much simpler and prepare for the future by dealing Peterson now, and if they put him on the trading block, their phone lines will blow up with quality offers. The Rams acquired Marcus Peters last year for a 2018 fourth-round pick and a 2019 second-rounder. Arizona should get better than that for Peterson, who is older and more expensive than Peters but also more reliable and a superior player. The Cardinals can let Peterson pursue a championship elsewhere while adding quality weapons for Josh Rosen as he matures.
Los Angeles Rams: Cut Mark Barron, Michael Brockers and Marcus Peters
The Rams aren't necessarily in salary-cap hell, but they face some tough budgeting issues this offseason. They're below average in effective cap space, according to Over The Cap, and they'll need to pony up some cash to re-sign several starters entering free agency, including Rodger Saffold, Cory Littleton, Lamarcus Joyner and Ndamukong Suh. Those are just the guys they have on hand now -- they'll need to spend even more if they want to add players this offseason.
The Rams can clear up some room by releasing a trio of disappointing, overpriced defenders. They were 28th in run defense last season, according to the advanced numbers at Football Outsiders, which is not a good sign for defensive lineman Michael Brockers or linebacker Mark Barron. That duo didn't offer much pass rush either, with just one sack each in 28 combined starts. Peters, meanwhile, was a disaster in his first season in L.A. He averaged 9.7 yards allowed on 67 targets, ranking 80th out of 85 qualifying cornerbacks, according to Sports Info Solutions. Releasing those three would clear up $25.7 million in cap space while leaving the Rams with just over $4 million in dead money. L.A. should have little trouble finding younger, cheaper and likely better players at those spots.
San Francisco 49ers: Blow up the pass defense
Casual observers might blame San Francisco's 4-12 record on the injuries that knocked out the starters at quarterback and running back for most of the season, but that's overlooking the fact that the defense was terrible, too. In fact, the 49ers ranked higher in scoring offense (21st) than they did in scoring defense (28th). The pass coverage was particularly weak. San Francisco struggled to cover everyone: opposing wide receivers, running backs or tight ends.
Richard Sherman is obviously sticking around -- he was still a top-10 cornerback by success rate, according to Sports Info Solutions. But the 49ers should be looking to upgrade everywhere else in the defensive backfield. Injuries knocked out first-string safeties Jaquiski Tartt and Adrian Colbert for half a season each, but neither was playing like Ronnie Lott when healthy. Jimmie Ward, Antone Exum and Greg Mabin are free agents, and GM John Lynch should thank them for their time and let them walk.
The good news is San Francisco has more than $65 million in effective cap space, so it can be aggressive in acquiring talent. Go sign Earl Thomas and Landon Collins. Add Morris Claiborne, and trade for Patrick Peterson. With the second pick in the draft, the 49ers should get a quality edge rusher such as Ohio State's Nick Bosa, Kentucky's Josh Allen or Michigan's Rashan Gary. That will make any secondary look better.
Seattle Seahawks: Reverse their draft strategy
Sitting back and waiting to take the best available defender might not sound like a bold move, but this is the Seahawks we're talking about. Remarkably, Pete Carroll and John Schneider have moved down in the first round or out of it entirely seven years in a row -- sometimes for veterans (Percy Harvin, Jimmy Graham), sometimes for more picks, sometimes for both. As a result, the Seahawks last season were left with a mediocre defense that had no glaring weakness but just one young star (defensive end Frank Clark, who will likely get the franchise tag). Meanwhile, some of the picks they have traded away have been used to select All-Pros (Fletcher Cox, Xavier Rhodes) or promising youngsters (Takkarist McKinley, Jaire Alexander). By trading back so frequently, the Seahawks have surrendered their best chance to replace the Legion of Boom with players of similar talent.
Seattle's odds of trading down this year are limited by the shallow pool of quarterbacks in this year's class (in years past, the Broncos and Vikings made deals with Seattle to move up for Paxton Lynch and Teddy Bridgewater, respectively). The most obvious veteran trade target would be Pittsburgh's Antonio Brown, but would a team as reluctant to throw as Seattle make a big investment in a wide receiver? With no obvious trade partners coming to mind, Carroll and Schneider might be forced to use their first-round pick themselves -- which could be the best thing for the franchise.
-- Vince Verhei
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Make a play for former Broncos center Matt Paradis
Loaded to the gills with cap space, the Bills have the money to fill several of the holes on their roster. One of the biggest is at center, where the hole left by Eric Wood's retirement haunted the team all season. Ryan Groy and Russell Bodine predictably struggled, and the Buffalo running attack finished in the bottom third in rushing DVOA despite Josh Allen's ridiculous season as a runner. Allen's 192 DYAR running as a quarterback is the most the league has seen at that position since Russell Wilson hit 269 rushing DYAR in 2014 -- it's a number straight out of Michael Vick's career -- and the Bills were still a bad rushing attack.
Paradis is coming off a fractured fibula but has been a star for the Broncos for the past couple of seasons and hits free agency as the clear No. 1 center on the board. He'd be a perfect replacement for Wood and, coming from a background in Idaho and Boise State, probably wouldn't be as concerned as some free agents about the lack of Buffalo nightlife. We realize the Bills signed Spencer Long, and that's cool, too -- they could use multiple interior linemen, and Paradis is still a big upgrade on Long.
Miami Dolphins: Release (or trade) several underperforming players
Looking like a team in search of a new direction with Brian Flores and Chris Grier newly empowered, the Dolphins need to cut ties with several salary-cap anchors. With the team unlikely to compete for the postseason in 2019, there's no reason to worry about cap hits. The obvious ones are Danny Amendola, Akeem Spence and Daniel Kilgore, who all create no dead money on release. But we're even talking about players such as Kiko Alonso, T.J. McDonald and Andre Branch. Get these guys off the cap, and see what kind of young solutions can be scrounged up. Dolphins fans don't deserve another season of wild Alonso head-hunting and blown coverages.
We would stop short of recommending a Ryan Tannehill release, if only because Tannehill has Sam Bradforded his way into some occasional good play over the years and might look different in a scheme not designed to completely take away his deep ball. But that cut also wouldn't be surprising, especially if the Dolphins happened to take a quarterback with their first-round pick.
New England Patriots: Offer multiple Day 2 picks to the Bengals for A.J. Green
With the long-term quarterback situation cast aside until Tom Brady declines, where the Patriots have the most uncertain future is at receiver. Josh Gordon is awesome when he's playing, but he's also Josh Gordon, so you can't count on him playing. Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett are free agents. Julian Edelman will be 33 next season, and Rob Gronkowski is openly flirting with retirement and runs like Antonio Gates in the open field, even though he's nearly 10 years younger than Gates.
Green is probably the most approachable of the star wideouts that could be had, and the Steelers have already said they're not trading Antonio Brown to the Patriots. Green is coming off season-ending injuries in two of his past three seasons, and without Andrew Whitworth, the Bengals' offense has imploded, failing to give Andy Dalton time to spot Green deep. Green's still an electric talent, and turning 31 before July, he might be ready to become a ring-chaser. There's no better place to do that than in Foxborough, perhaps for the price of a second- and a future third-round pick.
New York Jets: Don't wildly overspend for the top tackles on the market
This is a big free-agent year for the Jets, who have nearly $100 million in available cap space, trailing only that of the Colts. It's essentially a given that somebody from the edge rusher tier -- whomever is available, really -- is going to land a big deal from the Jets if he wants it. It's something the Jets have needed for multiple seasons, and it's something that should get done regardless of whom the first target is.
But we want to throw the caution flag up on spending too heavily for the best offensive linemen in the class because most of them don't have much of a pedigree. Trent Brown was acquired for almost nothing last offseason and joined an offensive line on which Dante Scarnecchia uses witchcraft to make everybody better -- he isn't the guy the Jets should lock in on. Ja'Wuan James has hardly been a star in Miami, either. We're bigger fans of the idea of rehabilitating someone such as Daryl Williams, Ty Nsekhe or even Cameron Fleming than going bananas over the top of this tackle market.
-- Rivers McCown
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Let go of Terrell Suggs unless he's a bargain
Baltimore is in an interesting place after the Joe Flacco trade. The Ravens have enough money to settle up with linebacker C.J. Mosley and maybe make one more big play in free agency or trade. Maybe they go after a star wideout, maybe they go after an interior lineman, or maybe they go after one of the bevy of pass-rushers who will hit the market.
One thing the Ravens can't do is allow their love of Suggs and their desire to make him a single-team player to become determining factors in their negotiations with him. Suggs is still quite talented, but going into his age-37 season, the Ravens can't afford to budget him as if he's a superstar edge rusher at this point and still make another big splash in free agency. Suggs registered 35 hurries in 2018, finishing in the top 20 per Sports Info Solutions, so he should still have a market. By all means, keeping Suggs is nice if it happens -- but hard decisions might need to be made in the chase to improve elsewhere.
Cincinnati Bengals: Sign William Jackson to an extension
Look, it's the Bengals. We can tell them to sign big-money free agents or trade A.J. Green until we're blue in the face, and nothing will change. This team is allergic to bold moves. What we can also recommend is committing to Jackson. Jackson had a down 2018 in which he still finished in the top 25 in yards per pass allowed (6.7) among qualified cornerbacks, per Sports Info Solutions' charting. In 2017, in a smaller sample, he allowed a paltry 3.3 yards per pass.
By negotiating with the leverage of the last year of his rookie deal and the fifth-year option, the Bengals can spread cap hits around a bit more by opening negotiations now. One thing they have tended to do is re-sign their stars early -- this is another situation in which they should do that and lock up the 26-year-old corner's remaining prime years.
Cleveland Browns: Make a play for DeSean Jackson
After reeling in Jarvis Landry last offseason, the Browns have a settled group of solid possession receivers for Baker Mayfield to target underneath. Last season, they relied on Antonio Callaway as a deep receiver, and he caught just 54 percent of his passes, leaving a trail of drops and fumbles in his wake. Callaway might grow up, or this might just be who he is.
Why not get one of the league's pre-eminent field stretchers in Jackson to both show Callaway how it's done and improve the short-term upside of the Browns' offense? Mayfield and Freddie Kitchens played off each other to create an aggressive scheme, and new offensive coordinator Todd Monken called plays for the Bucs last season, helping Jackson to a 12.2 percent DVOA and some huge games even with Ryan Fitzpatrick as his quarterback.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Mend fences with Antonio Brown
Brown seems pretty far gone at this point, but he has done so much to hurt his own trade value that the Steelers can't possibly bank on getting much back for him. Diving out of the locker room and not playing in a must-win Week 17 are things that don't sit well with the authoritarian culture that permeates most NFL organizations. But hey, we said these were bold moves, didn't we?
Brown will turn 31 before the season starts. Most organizations are going to look at a 31-year-old wideout as a year-to-year proposition, and even as great as Brown is, when age-related decline hits wideouts, they are usually toast in a hurry. If the market bears a second-round pick and the Steelers can renegotiate a contract for Brown as part of that trade to keep him from destroying their salary cap (trading him would leave $21 million in dead money), terrific! If they can't get that much, though, it's probably better to smooth things out with Brown -- maybe give him a small contract restructure à la Julio Jones last year -- than to shrug their collective shoulders about how things have gone down.
-- Rivers McCown
AFC South
Houston Texans: Find a new set of cornerbacks
The Texans were the best run defense in the league by DVOA in 2018, but they finished just seventh in defense overall, despite a pass rush featuring Jadeveon Clowney and J.J. Watt. The primary reason was poor coverage when the pass-rushers did not get home. On deep passes (more than 15 yards downfield), the Texans ranked 25th by DVOA.
Houston tried to address corner this past offseason, signing Aaron Colvin away from the Jaguars and hoping for a bounce-back season from former first-round pick Kevin Johnson. But Johnson went to injured reserve early, and Colvin finished the season as a healthy scratch. If Johnson is healthy, the Texans should release him before his fifth-year option becomes guaranteed at the start of the league year. Colvin is likely to be around, since his salary is fully guaranteed. Given the limited depth available at corner in free agency, though, a team that misses out might be willing to give a late-round pick for him.
That limited depth will hamper the Texans' ability to completely rebuild the position group. What they have, though, is plenty of cap space and, unlike last year, multiple early draft picks. Trading Whitney Mercilus, who was moved away from his best use on the line of scrimmage, could provide more ammunition to address corner.
Indianapolis Colts: Trade for Antonio Brown
Chris Ballard's quiet 2018 offseason, adding Ryan Grant and a couple of Day 3 picks to a receiving group with T.Y. Hilton and not much else, turned into a fine 2018 regular season. The Colts went into the year wondering just how well Andrew Luck would play and whether they could stop anybody on defense. Then Luck ranked fifth in Total QBR, and the defense improved to 10th in DVOA. The 2018 Colts were a lot closer to the top of the AFC than it appeared they would be heading into the season, which creates an opportunity to win now that Ballard should try to take advantage of.
With no top edge rusher likely to be available in free agency or the late first round, where the Colts pick, the best option might be to improve DVOA's No. 10 offense into one of the league's elite by trading for Brown.
Before a down year in 2018, Brown ranked first in the league in receiving DYAR three of the past four seasons, in part because he excelled in yards after the catch on short throws like those Frank Reich's offense prioritizes. Turning 31 in July, Brown is not young, but he should be a top receiver for the next couple of seasons. The Colts have the quarterback to take advantage of that, one whose personality has shown no signs of wearing thin on teammates. They also have the cap space to pay Brown what he wants.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Acquire a veteran quarterback and draft a QB
The Jaguars' defense unsurprisingly slipped a bit from its outstanding 2017 play, but the unit was still very good, ranking sixth by DVOA. The difference between 10-6 and 5-11 was quarterback play. Blake Bortles plummeted from 12th in Total QBR among qualifying quarterbacks to 30th.
Given that the Jaguars' defense featured top cornerback play from A.J. Bouye and Jalen Ramsey, getting in favorable game scripts is especially important. Jacksonville had the league's best offense and second-best passing offense by DVOA in the first quarter in 2017 but the fourth-worst offense and sixth-worst passing offense in the first quarter in 2018. It is clear now that Bortles is no longer the future at quarterback and probably should not be the present.
Since Bortles is not the future, the Jaguars should take advantage of the high draft pick they earned by finding their next quarterback of the future, even though that likely means trading up from the 10th pick. But a rookie who likely came out early might not be good enough for a Jaguars defense that has shown it is good enough to win games now. That's why Jacksonville should also add a veteran quarterback capable of playing competently in 2019, even if he is not outstanding. The Jaguars don't need to win a big free-agency sweepstakes like the Vikings did for Kirk Cousins last year, but adding one of several options that might include Ryan Tannehill, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor or others should be on the table.
Tennessee Titans: Upgrade at backup quarterback
It is another crucial season for Marcus Mariota, who gets to work with his teammates on learning from yet another offensive coordinator. Thus far, Mariota has yet to become the top quarterback the Titans hoped they were drafting second overall, instead ranking between 12th and 22nd by Total QBR in each of his four NFL seasons. He also has yet to play a full 16 games, leaving the Titans' potential playoff trip in the hands of a backup late in the year in 2016 and 2018.
Mariota's missing time has revealed one weakness of Tennessee's strategy: The Titans keep signing one of the worst quarterbacks in the league from the previous season as his backup. Only four quarterbacks with at least 150 passes had a worse Total QBR in 2017 than 2018 backup Blaine Gabbert, while only two were worse in 2015 than 2016 and 2017 backup Matt Cassel. (Naturally, one of those was Mariota's then-backup, Zach Mettenberger.)
Paying a backup quarterback a significant salary will mean forgoing improvements elsewhere now that Mariota is in his option year and much more expensive. But if they pay the market price for a player such as Tannehill, Keenum or Taylor, the Titans wouldn't have to hope for a miracle late in the season, and they would have a bridge quarterback for 2020, should they choose not to extend Mariota.
-- Tom Gower
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Sign Jared Cook
Jeff Heuerman is both a free agent and not particularly inspiring as a player. Jake Butt tore his ACL for the third time in September, and you have to wonder whether he'll ever stay healthy. The Broncos could use some value out of their tight end position, especially with Demaryius Thomas gone and Emmanuel Sanders likely following him out of town. New starter Joe Flacco has had success working with tight ends his whole career, from Dennis Pitta and Todd Heap in the past to Benjamin Watson and Mark Andrews in more recent years. It's a deep class of tight ends in the draft, sure, but why use a draft pick on a tight end when you can hurt a division rival in free agency?
Cook is coming off career highs in catches, yards and touchdowns, as he became Oakland's leading receiver because of a lack of other options. Cook's 146 DYAR and 13.8 percent DVOA marked his best performance in FO metrics since his 2011 season in Tennessee, as Cook has historically struggled to turn his obvious athleticism into on-field success. Buying high on the 32-year-old Cook is definitely a bold move, as you're betting on a guy to repeat a career year. If he's able to do so, however, he would be a huge get for a passing offense that was stuck in the mud in 2018.
Kansas City Chiefs: Trade for Patrick Peterson
The Chiefs have two second-round picks this season, thanks to the Marcus Peters trade last offseason. Their offense puts them right smack dab in the middle of a Super Bowl window, but their defense makes sure that that window isn't all the way open quite yet. More than half of Kansas City's defensive starters could stand to be upgraded -- and why bother working in unknown rookies when you want to win now?
Trading one of their second-round picks to rebuilding Arizona for Peterson makes sense for all parties involved. Peterson was unhappy with the Cardinals last season, and though he has rescinded his midseason trade demands with the hiring of Kliff Kingsbury, there's still some drama there. Arizona is rebuilding and needs draft picks -- Peterson's contract will likely be expired by the time the team is competitive again. Kansas City might lose Steven Nelson in free agency, and even if the Chiefs keep him, adding one of the least targeted cornerbacks in football is an obvious upgrade. David Merritt was Peterson's defensive backs coach last year in Arizona, and he's Kansas City's new secondary coach. The trade almost makes too much sense not to happen.
Los Angeles Chargers: Draft a first-round quarterback
The Chargers do not need an immediate replacement for Philip Rivers, who finished seventh in QBR (as well as third in DYAR and DVOA) last season at the ripe old age of 37. However, the tread on Rivers' tires is growing thinner and thinner. The success of Tom Brady and Drew Brees well into their grey-beard years makes hanging on to an older quarterback seem more enticing, but the fact remains that only a handful of quarterbacks have excelled as starters past their 38th birthdays. Rivers looks set to join that club in 2019, but the days ahead of him are surely fewer than the days behind, and it's better to prepare for his eventual decline a year or two too early than a year or two too late.
A wise decision would be to use a second-day pick on a Jarrett Stidham, Ryan Finley or Will Grier type -- someone who might not be ready on day one but has traits you could mold. The bold move, though, would be to follow Kansas City's model and take your next quarterback right there on opening night. Drew Lock is a prospect the Chargers could realistically get, probably with a slight move up in the draft order. He's a gunslinger-type who could benefit from a more consistent coaching staff than he had at Missouri. If Lock pulls a Mahomes and turns into the quarterback of the future, the Chargers could then deal Rivers to an NFC team in 2020 and get more draft capital in return.
Oakland Raiders: Draft four first-round defenders
The Raiders have too many issues to fix in one offseason, even with four of the top 40 picks in the draft. They have a solid offensive line, even with a little depth in case Donald Penn can't come back at age 36. Every other position on the roster is a question at best and a wasteland at worst. At least the Khalil Mack and Amari Cooper trades gave the Raiders some needed draft capital.
The Raiders should be taking the best players available whenever they draft, but they should also be trading down multiple times to get more picks. They have the most draft capital in the league by a mile and need to get as many starters as possible to kick-start a franchise that was both old and bad in 2018. Essentially, we would have the Raiders follow a simple philosophy: If the best player available is a defender, draft him; otherwise, trade down. Focusing on one side of the ball like that is the strategy most likely to produce at least one competitive unit in 2019, as well as give the Raiders a sense of identity heading into their Las Vegas move. The first round of this year's draft is loaded with defensive talent, making that the logical side of the ball to work with. If April 25 sees Oakland come away with, say, Clellin Ferrell, Jachai Polite, Trayvon Mullen and Dre'Mont Jones, that's quite the defensive core to build around.
-- Bryan Knowles