Pittsburgh Steelers receiver Antonio Brown exulted when signing a contract to become the NFL's highest-paid receiver two years ago.
"Steelers for life," Brown tweeted at the time, along with a picture showing him beaming with his agents.
Times change.
Brown's Twitter timeline has become a vehicle for requesting a trade. Brown has used the social-media platform to cast Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger as entitled and enabled. Following a Tuesday meeting with Steelers president Art Rooney II, Brown tweeted that both parties agreed it was time for a separation.
While Brown's career in Pittsburgh could be finished, it's not clear what the future holds. Recent conversations with executives around the league set some parameters for a situation with constantly changing dynamics.
How likely is a trade? What could the Steelers get in return? Which teams would be the most logical suitors? NFL execs cover the relevant ground here.
Trade likelihood can fluctuate by the hour
Most execs thought the Steelers would trade Brown.
One was more adamant than the others that they might not, but he changed his thinking Tuesday after reports from the Brown-Rooney meeting suggested all parties agreed a separation would be best. This exec also changed what he thought the Steelers could get in return (more on that below), an indication just how fluid the situation has become.
"I would think they are going to trade him if they can, unless there is no offer that makes sense," an exec said. "I think you would have to be a good team to consider it."
Brown's contract counts $22.2 million against the Steelers' salary cap. That figure would shrink by only $1 million if the team traded Brown before June. The team would gain another $14 million in cap relief by trading Brown after June 1. Those charges are a consideration, but not considered a deal breaker. As one team contract negotiator put it years ago, the public tends to focus on cap, while teams tend to focus on cash.
"If they decide to keep him, it will not be because of the cap consequences," a different negotiator said last month. "It will be because they do not want to give up on a player that is this good and still productive."
My takeaway: There's a better than 50 percent chance the Steelers will trade Brown. Cap consequences for Pittsburgh will not be a primary consideration.
What Brown could command in a trade
There's debate among NFL execs over how much the Steelers might get in return for Brown if they do trade him. Opinions are shifting as variables change.
An exec who initially thought the Steelers would smooth over the situation with Brown and keep him quickly changed his tune Tuesday after reports suggested all parties agreed a divorce could be in their best interests. This exec said he thought the Steelers would ask for a second-round pick and could come away with as little as a third.
"Here is my prediction on the trade," another exec said over the weekend. "I think there is going to be a one [first-round pick] involved. If I am the Packers -- and I'm just using them as an example -- I would give a first and a fourth, and I'd want back a third and a sixth."
Swapping picks in that manner would muddy the waters, allowing both teams to spin the trade to their liking. The Steelers could say they got a first-round pick for Brown. The team acquiring Brown could brag about adding an elite wideout, plus valuable draft capital.
"With all the stuff going on with A.B. off the field, it's going to be more difficult for the Steelers to get a first, in my view," an evaluator said. "If I'm Pittsburgh in this situation, I'm trying to get a second and a player."
Another exec said he'd be nervous giving up a first-round pick.
"If the value is driven down because nobody is sure he will show up and get along, I can see Pittsburgh saying, 'We are not taking a fourth-round pick for the guy,'" this exec said. "If they can turn him into a mid-to-high two, given the risk associated with it, good for them."
My takeaway: Brown will cost less than a first-round pick. If a first-round pick is involved, the Steelers will give back something in return, making the net price lower than a first-round pick.
The most logical suitors for Brown
Execs agreed that New England would be the ideal suitor, but none thought the Steelers would send Brown to a primary AFC rival unless the compensation was unrealistically high.
The San Francisco 49ers, Green Bay Packers, Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles were four interesting NFC destinations execs mentioned. The Oakland Raiders and Denver Broncos were two AFC teams execs thought made sense. The Seattle Seahawks and Kansas City Chiefs were a couple of potentially opportunistic teams an exec thought were worth mentioning.
As for the New York Jets? Keep reading.
49ers: San Francisco has an obvious need at the position. Coach Kyle Shanahan has gotten outstanding production from a range of players during his years as a playcaller, including established talents (Andre Johnson, Julio Jones) and lesser-known ones (George Kittle). Shanahan would be high on every list of playcallers who might get max value from a talented receiving target.
Packers: Green Bay might not have been on this list during Ted Thompson's run as general manager. There's a perception the team's new leadership could be more open to making moves perceived as aggressive. The Packers already have a No. 1 receiver in Davante Adams (111 receptions in 2018), but with an additional first-round pick this year and a new head coach hired to maximize Aaron Rodgers, why not add firepower?
"Having a high-functioning pass offense with a quarterback known for getting the ball to whoever he wants could be critical in making a trade," an exec said.
Another exec noted that Green Bay already looks good for trading back in the first round last year and still landing cornerback Jaire Alexander. The 2019 first-round pick the Packers acquired in that draft-day trade with New Orleans gives them ample firepower to land another elite receiving target for Rodgers.
Rams: The Rams already have Brandin Cooks, so why go after another receiver? Because Brown is an elite producer who happens to be available. Last offseason, the Rams did not let Aaron Donald's presence at defensive tackle deter them from signing Ndamukong Suh, the biggest-name defensive tackle on the market.
Coach Sean McVay could find room for another receiver in an offense that used three wideouts 91 percent of the time last season, easily the NFL's highest percentage (the Steelers were second at 78.4 percent).
Eagles: They've been leaders in the trade market over the years and were active in the market for receivers during the season, acquiring Golden Tate.
Raiders: Coach Jon Gruden is a former receivers coach who has shown an affinity for acquiring veteran wideouts over the years, from Jerry Rice to Jordy Nelson. Gruden is flush with draft capital this offseason and has an obvious need at the position after trading Amari Cooper.
"To me, there is no doubt Gruden would do it," an exec said.
Another exec said he thought Gruden could sell Brown on coming to the Raiders if the Steelers allowed Gruden and Brown to meet or speak, but he did not think the pairing was automatic.
"Now you are talking West Coast," this exec said. "Not that Brown necessarily has any say in where he goes, but that is a tough one to call."
Broncos: Execs thought the Broncos saw themselves as a team trying to win right away, backed by an improved defense under new coach Vic Fangio. Emmanuel Sanders' torn Achilles tendon makes Denver an obvious candidate to add receiver help.
"Denver does not have a deep threat and A.B. is so much better than Sanders," an evaluator said. "That team does make sense to me, and I do think [GM John] Elway is in win-now mode. They are not giving up the 10th pick for him, but they make sense."
Seahawks: Seattle seems like a long shot given that the team has no second-round choice, four picks overall, significant resources invested in other receivers and a run-heavy offense. The Seahawks also are going young. They have been willing traders in the past, however, so one exec cautioned against ruling them out. Perhaps a 2020 pick would be involved.
Chiefs: Again, it's difficult to envision the Steelers trading Brown to a primary AFC rival, which might leave Kansas City in the same category as New England. With Tyreek Hill entering the final year of his rookie deal, Sammy Watkins coming off an underwhelming first season with the team and Andy Reid calling plays for Patrick Mahomes, Brown could carry obvious appeal.
My takeaway: It's too early to know where Brown might land. The scouting combine is next week. Lots of business gets done there. A clearer picture of suitors could emerge at that point.
About the Jets
The Jets might be the most obvious potential suitor for Brown based on team needs and available resources.
While some execs thought the Jets should rank high on any list, others pointed to new coach Adam Gase's tenure with the Miami Dolphins in making the case that Gase's new team would not build around players with big personalities and histories of conflict. If that line of thinking holds true, Le'Veon Bell also might not be an ideal fit for the Jets.
"Adam wants the right culture," an exec said.
Others thought any team could justify adding such a productive player.
"I think you can justify from a couple perspectives why the Antonio Brown situation fell apart in Pittsburgh," an evaluator said. "People will believe that Roethlisberger was part of the problem, and that Mike Tomlin did not hold him accountable."
Would Brown be interested in the Jets?
"He would be in New York, he would get a lot of attention and he would be playing with a good young quarterback who would probably feel under pressure to get him the ball," an exec theorized. "For not a lot of great reasons, but reasons nonetheless, that could be an appealing place for a receiver."
Of course, most teams would love to add an elite receiver on a contract carrying no guaranteed money and very manageable base salaries of $12.6 million (2019), $11.3 million (2020) and $12.5 million (2021). That is why Brown could land almost anywhere if the Steelers trade him, especially if a team's leadership is desperate enough (speaking of such teams, some execs thought Washington qualified from a coaching standpoint, although perhaps not with the Redskins' quarterback situation being so unsettled).
My takeaway: The Jets aren't a great fit on the surface. If they do acquire him, it'll be interesting to hear what the head coach has to say.
The elephant in the room: Would Brown demand a new deal?
Brown recently posted a video in which he touched on a range of subjects. He twice alluded to wanting guaranteed money from his next team.
Brown's deal averages $17 million per year, second to Odell Beckham Jr. ($18 million) among wide receivers. Mike Evans ($16.5 million), Cooks ($16.2 million), DeAndre Hopkins ($16.2 million) and Watkins ($16 million) round out the group earning more than $15.1 million.
However, Brown has reached a point in his deal where the remaining salaries are not guaranteed. Joe Flacco had reached the same point in his contract with Baltimore, which enhanced his appeal to the Broncos and other teams. Pittsburgh might get more in return for Brown if the acquiring team were confident Brown would produce on his current deal. Having to rework that deal could complicate matters.
"He has been paid and it is not like he is working under a bad contract," one exec said.
Some execs said they would seek assurances from Brown's agents that the receiver would not expect a new contract upon completion of a trade.
Another exec said he would consider adding guaranteed money after Brown played the 2019 season under his current deal.
"You buy a year and I think that is fair," this exec said.
My takeaway: Brown will want some of his contract guaranteed. A creative team contract negotiator should be able to work out something if Brown is indeed motivated to leave Pittsburgh and not set on getting a new deal entirely.
Is Brown's age a concern?
Brown and 2019 Pro Football Hall of Fame semifinalist Torry Holt are the only players in league history to produce six consecutive seasons with at least 1,250 yards receiving. Brown's streak is current. Holt did it for the "Greatest Show on Turf" Rams teams in St. Louis.
Brown turns 31 in July. While overall production from 30-plus wide receivers has declined over the past 15 years, many elite wideouts have produced at a high level in their early 30s. Andre Johnson, Jimmy Smith, Reggie Wayne, Marvin Harrison, Donald Driver, Rod Smith, Terrell Owens, Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald are among the receivers with 3,000 yards over their age 31-33 seasons during the past two decades.
"The really good receivers can play for a while," a former GM said. "There are a lot of guys who have been productive at that age and, just watching Antonio Brown, he doesn't appear to have slowed down at all. He makes you better right away because you have to prepare for him."
Others mentioned Brown's age as a minor concern offset by his elite production and the potentially favorable nature of his contract. Some evaluators have characterized Brown as a "freelance" receiver whose long-established rapport with Roethlisberger is critical and might not transfer in full to another team. That doesn't mean Brown could not produce elsewhere, but it's a consideration, at least.
My takeaway: Brown's strong work ethic should help him remain productive for the next two seasons, at least. Starting over with a new QB could make it unrealistic for him to reach previous heights statistically.
That other receiver: Odell Beckham Jr.
Execs perked up when asked about a recent musing from Fox analyst Jay Glazer that Beckham could be traded this offseason.
Every exec asked about the subject thought this was a situation where smoke signaled fire. If Beckham were available, that could obviously impact the market for other receivers. Beckham is younger than Brown and could be considered more appealing.
One GM thought the 49ers would be an interesting team to consider for Beckham. Another thought Oakland could use Beckham's star power to headline a coming move to Las Vegas.
It's all talk at this point -- fun, interesting talk, but just talk.
My takeaway: We haven't heard the last about a potential Beckham trade.