Five years ago, before the Cincinnati Bengals extended Andy Dalton's rookie contract, I wrote a column questioning whether NFL teams should pay upper-tier money for middle-tier quarterbacks. That discussion endures today as the league heads into another potentially wacky offseason at the position.
Joe Flacco, Nick Foles, Teddy Bridgewater, Ryan Tannehill and Eli Manning are among the veterans who could reach the market. They are current or former starting quarterbacks in a league with more teams than truly exciting options at the position. The picture will evolve as teams hire head coaches, evaluate college prospects and figure out how they want to allocate resources, but there will always be demand.
I've separated the most relevant veteran and draft-eligible quarterback options into categories, laying out which teams are most likely to seek their services.
Two team contract negotiators thought the Minnesota Vikings' experience with Kirk Cousins -- paying $84 million fully guaranteed, then firing their offensive coordinator during the season and missing the playoffs -- could hurt veteran free agents this offseason even though Cousins put up good numbers (30 touchdowns, 10 interceptions, 62.0 Total QBR). Both negotiators said one lesson was that it can take years for a quarterback to become a leader in a new environment.
Of course, the Jacksonville Jaguars brought back Blake Bortles in the interests of team chemistry and stability last offseason -- his QBR was actually higher than Cousins' in 2017 -- and it backfired (not that they were obligated to extend his contract, which they did).
The Vikings' choice was between Case Keenum, who had built strong chemistry with teammates during a storybook 13-3 season, and an outsider perceived to be an upgrade. Teams in the market for quarterbacks this offseason typically do not have beloved in-house options coming off breakout seasons. Their choices are detailed below.
Jump to a QB section:
Free-agent class | The wild card
Cut/trade options | Long shots | 2019 draft class
Teams most likely to seek new starting QBs
These are ranked in order of most likely to change starters this offseason:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars
They have not funneled resources into developing alternatives to Bortles. That could change this offseason after Bortles lost his job.
"They have got to do something," an evaluator said. "I would assume that means moving on from Bortles."
Enter Flacco? Manning? Bridgewater? Foles?
It's too early to have much of a feel. Jacksonville doesn't even have an offensive coordinator yet. The team will presumably pursue the formula for winning that executive vice president Tom Coughlin has outlined in the past: solid defense and a run-oriented offense with a play-action passing game designed to provide explosive plays.
2. Washington Redskins
Alex Smith's career-threatening leg injury will force the team to line up alternatives.
"The Redskins might be one of the most quarterback-needy teams out there just because of Alex Smith's injury," an evaluator said. "You almost have to plan as though he is not coming back, worst-case scenario."
3. New York Giants
General manager Dave Gettleman's noncommittal comments regarding Manning kept open the possibility the team could head in another direction with one year remaining on the veteran quarterback's contract.
"Eli has had some really talented skill players, and it looks bad," a personnel director said. "The production has not been there. Some of the tape is just poor."
Others have said the Giants' decision to bypass a quarterback in the 2018 draft was an indication Gettleman thought Manning had two or three years left. If that was indeed part of the thought process, has the thinking changed?
4. Miami Dolphins
Ownership has authorized a long-term rebuild, which might not include a seventh season with Ryan Tannehill as the projected starting quarterback.
"If I'm Miami, I have a lot of other needs to address, so I do not know if I would trade a pick for a Joe Flacco," an evaluator said. "At the same time, I would invest in a Flacco if I'm moving on from Tannehill. I would rather pay Flacco than pay Tannehill."
5. Denver Broncos
GM John Elway said Keenum is the starter "right now" and that the team is always looking for "that guy" ... a clear indication all options are on the table.
"I would list Denver and Miami as equals on here," an analytics specialist said. "You can move on if you feel like you have upgraded from either one."
One QB who defies categorization
Nick Foles
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
Current APY: $14.5 million
Foles, Flacco and Bridgewater are three intriguing potential options. Their statistical profiles over their past 16 starts, counting playoffs, are strikingly similar, as the table shows. It's as though middle-tier quarterbacks are interchangeable:
Foles' future could go any number of directions. He could become a free agent. He could get the franchise or transition tag, although one team's contract negotiator doubted the Eagles would go that route, for fear of getting stuck with the bill if Foles signed the tender, guaranteeing the elevated salaries that come with those tags.
Foles could decide he wants to stay in Philly at a negotiated rate. He could win another Super Bowl for all anyone knows at this point.
It's a highly unusual situation with a range of interesting variables, including what Foles wants for his future and whether other teams think a couple of late-season runs in Philly translate to consistent success over time in another setting.
Foles can become a free agent two ways. The most direct route would involve the Eagles declining a $20 million option for 2019. The less direct route would involve Philly exercising the option and Foles then paying back $2 million of his 2018 signing bonus to void the option, as the contract allows him to do.
If Foles does opt out, the Eagles could then use the franchise or transition tag to retain control of him, soliciting trade offers or even keeping him. How the Eagles' ongoing playoff run unfolds from here will play a role.
Four notable free-agent QBs
These veteran quarterbacks without contracts for 2019 have been primary starters in the past five seasons.
Teddy Bridgewater
Team: New Orleans Saints
Current APY: $6 million
The former Minnesota starter and current New Orleans backup has attempted 25 passes over the past three seasons. His Week 17 start in a meaningless game that saw the Saints rest starters did not go particularly well, but Bridgewater's reconstructed knee made it through the game.
If concerns over durability lower Bridgewater's price tag, he could represent better value than other Tier 3 quarterbacks (he was ranked 23rd and in the third tier in both of my 2015 and 2016 QB Tiers surveys of NFL coaches and evaluators).
"Preseason, before he got traded, he showed some flashes, and then the game he played this year for New Orleans wasn't very good," an evaluator said. "He is talented. He is young enough to be a guy. I don't see him as a guy I'm going to sign for the next five years, but I'm saying that as a team that has a quarterback. If I did not have one, I would consider drafting one and signing Teddy as well, with a Tyrod Taylor-type deal."
Bridgewater ranked 21st among 32 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR over his 2014 and 2015 seasons with Minnesota, before the injury.
Because QBR is scaled from 0-100 and correlates with winning, his 55.9 average carried an expectation he would win about 56 percent of starts with an average supporting cast. That equates to a 9-7 record over one season and 16-12 over the games Bridgewater started. Bridgewater did go 16-12 in those starts. He got above-average support from the Vikings' defense and special teams.
For a team like the Jaguars, whose 38.3 average QBR equated to 6.1 expected victories with average support this season, Bridgewater's previous production could be worth about 2.8 additional victories.
"If I'm Bridgewater, I consider staying in New Orleans to be the successor to Drew Brees, because that is a good position to be in," another evaluator said. "Or, you can take the money elsewhere, be like Mike Glennon and then a year or two later, maybe you are let go with money that your family has for generations."
Ryan Fitzpatrick
Team: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Current APY: $3.3 million
The Buccaneers will be paying nearly $21 million to starter Jameis Winston in 2019, a big raise that will make him the team's highest-paid player. That could affect how much money they allocate to the backup position. Teams probably will not view Fitzpatrick as a starter in the market based on his age (36) and inconsistency.
Tyrod Taylor
Team: Cleveland Browns
Current APY: $15.25 million
The Browns traded a third-round pick to Buffalo for Taylor last offseason, then benched him for Baker Mayfield after three starts. The thinking held that Cleveland might get a 2020 compensatory choice after Taylor signed a free-agent deal this offseason. There might not be much of a market for the 29-year-old as a starter based on how things went in Cleveland.
Josh McCown
Team: New York Jets
Current APY: $10 million
McCown is mulling retirement and would seemingly be a good fit as Sam Darnold's backup if he does continue playing.
Twelve other free-agent QBs
These quarterbacks without contracts for 2019 project as backups.
Colin Kaepernick, free agent: Two seasons have passed since Kaepernick's most recent game, with no indication any team is interested in signing him. His collusion case against the NFL remains unresolved. Kaepernick ranked 29th, atop the fourth tier, in my 2016 QB Tiers survey, conducted before Kaepernick began protesting social injustice by kneeling during the national anthem. Some saw him as a solid Tier 3 quarterback if placed in a system that could utilize his dual-threat abilities.
Sam Bradford, free agent: The Cardinals benched Bradford after three starts in 2018, then released him to improve their standing in the compensatory-pick equation and unload his contract.
Brett Hundley, Seattle Seahawks: Seattle acquired him from Green Bay for a 2019 sixth-round pick.
Nate Sudfeld, Philadelphia Eagles: Completed 19 of 23 passes for 134 yards and a 34.4 QBR in the 2017 finale, his only significant playing time.
Trevor Siemian, Minnesota Vikings: Has a 13-11 starting record despite a 41.1 QBR, thanks to his team's defense playing well -- 50 or higher in ESPN's efficiency metric -- in 83 percent of starts.
Brock Osweiler, Miami Dolphins: Has a higher QBR but worse conventional stats than Ryan Tannehill over the past four seasons, on more attempts.
Robert Griffin III, Baltimore Ravens: Has said he hopes to return as Lamar Jackson's backup next season.
Geno Smith, Los Angeles Chargers: Has one start in the past four seasons.
Tom Savage, Cincinnati Bengals: Started seven games for the Texans in 2017, throwing five touchdown passes and six interceptions.
Mark Sanchez and Josh Johnson, Washington Redskins: Sanchez was an emergency signing after Alex Smith's injury, while Johnson took over after Sanchez's benching.
Five QBs who could be cut or traded
These five veterans entered 2018 as starters, remain under contract for next season and could plausibly be available.
Joe Flacco
Team: Baltimore Ravens
Current APY: $22.1 million
The Ravens owned the NFL's third-best record (54-26) when Flacco was playing on his rookie contract. They rank 15th (50-46) since making Flacco the highest-paid quarterback following their Super Bowl victory. Baltimore's QBR has remained relatively flat while the Ravens' offensive and defensive efficiencies have fallen. That suggests the supporting cast has deteriorated, partly because of the resources set aside for the quarterback position.
Any team acquiring Flacco by trade would also acquire his contract, which carries an $18.5 million base salary for the coming season. The salaries are higher for 2020 ($20.25 million) and 2021 ($24.25 million), but because there would be no new bonus money involved, the acquiring team could exit the deal without negative cap consequences. Flacco's new team would be getting him on a three-year, $63 million deal with no guarantees, which would average out to No. 13 among quarterback APYs, same as for Eli Manning.
The Ravens could clear between $10.5 million and $18.5 million in 2019 cap space by trading or releasing him, depending on how and when the move was made.
Flacco ranked 23rd and deep into the third tier of my 2018 QB Tiers survey. He could be an upgrade for some teams.
"He has a strong arm and can throw it," a personnel director said. "The only thing is, his lack of mobility. If you have a sound offensive line, I could see him being a fit. Miami could make sense. I am not saying they have a great line, but they have enough. Jacksonville would have to get their offensive line solidified and get some more skill players around him."
Ryan Tannehill
Team: Miami Dolphins
Current APY: $19.25 million
The Dolphins will have a new coach and could change direction at quarterback as Tannehill enters his age-31 season. They could save between $13.2 million and $18.75 million under their 2019 cap if they traded or released him.
Tannehill's 49.1 career QBR is lower than the 55.1 figure for the entire league since 2012, his rookie season. Flacco, Jay Cutler, Case Keenum and Sam Bradford outrank him over that span.
"I could see Tannehill maybe being traded, depending on the team, but more likely cut than traded," an evaluator said.
Eli Manning
Team: New York Giants
Current APY: $21 million
The Giants have made no public declaration about their plans for the position as Manning enters the final year of his contract. That contract is scheduled to pay $5 million to Manning on March 15, the third day of the league year. The team could save $17 million under the 2019 cap by releasing or trading Manning before that bonus is due.
"I always thought they would bring him back," an evaluator said, "unless [Pat] Shurmur is just ready to move on. It felt like Gettleman was going to play out that contract."
Case Keenum
Team: Denver Broncos
Current APY: $18 million
Keenum's QBR last season (46.9) was about what it was in 24 career starts before a breakout 2017 season with Minnesota made him attractive to Denver. His contract carries an $18 million salary for 2019, including $7 million guaranteed. Keenum could become available if the Broncos can find what they perceive to be a better option.
Blake Bortles
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
Current APY: $17,483,500
Bortles has $6.5 million of his $14 million salary for 2019 guaranteed, and another $1 million coming his way if he remains on the Jaguars' roster on March 17, the fifth day of the league year. He ranked 29th in QBR (45.7) among the 30 quarterbacks with at least 300 pass attempts this season and lost his job to Cody Kessler after 72 consecutive starts.
Four long-shot QB options
These quarterbacks aren't likely to be moved, but keep an eye on their teams and situations:
Derek Carr
Team: Oakland Raiders
Current APY: $25 million
Carr turns 28 in March and should be entering his physical prime. Raiders coach Jon Gruden seems to like him, but does Gruden love him? Could Gruden fall in love with one of the college prospects or come across a veteran he'd rather build around? Carr's contract is easily tradable if Oakland decides to go in another direction.
Andy Dalton
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
Current APY: $16 million
About that contract extension for Dalton, signed before the 2014 season ...
Dalton has been better than AJ McCarron, whom the Bengals drafted in the fifth round that year. He has arguably outperformed the five quarterbacks selected in the first two rounds of that draft: Bortles, Johnny Manziel, Bridgewater, Derek Carr and Jimmy Garoppolo. Dalton has done it at a lower price in some cases, and his deal hasn't been a huge drain on resources.
Dalton's relatively low (for a starting QB) salary makes him a potential bargain relative to the prices other teams are paying for Tier 2-3 quarterbacks. Cincy has favored stability over risk when making the most important decisions. Also, Dalton has produced at a high level when the supporting cast was strong, notably in 2015. Those factors make it seem less likely Dalton would be available. He's signed through 2020.
As a general manager put it a few years back, "If you have a guy that proves he is up to winning [with the right supporting cast], no matter if he is not quite what you want, it is damn hard to move on. If you have to play with a castoff guy, all of a sudden you are like, 'F---!'"
Matthew Stafford
Team: Detroit Lions
Current APY: $27 million
Most NFL execs I've consulted expect Stafford to be the Lions' starting quarterback for 2019, with some saying they would be shocked if that were not the case. A few think the Lions' current leadership could consider a franchise reset that would put all options on the table, including a quarterback change. The salary-cap ramifications could be severe depending on the timing of any move with Stafford.
Marcus Mariota
Team: Tennessee Titans
Current APY: $20.92 million
Mariota enters his fifth-year option season as the Titans' presumed starter if he bounces back from the nerve injury that ended his 2018 season. The Titans will have yet another offensive coordinator after losing Matt LaFleur to the Packers. While there are questions about Mariota's long-term outlook both in terms of health and performance, he will presumably be part of the team's plans in 2019.
Five 2019 draft prospects to watch
The 2019 class of quarterbacks is interesting, but there are still several unknowns more than three months away from Round 1:
Dwayne Haskins, Ohio State: Likely first-round pick with a shot at being the top QB selected.
Kyler Murray, Oklahoma: Two-sport star has options and will have NFL suitors, perhaps early in the draft, if he enters.
Daniel Jones, Duke: Association with QB developer David Cutcliffe could help.
Drew Lock, Missouri: Physical tools could push him into first couple rounds.
Will Grier, West Virginia: Has potential to rise in what is seen as thin QB crop.