The 2018 NFL quarterback carousel was chaotic, with movement all across the league in free agency, the draft and via trades. The 2019 carousel? It's expected to be much less frenzied. That's partly because five signal-callers went in the first round of the draft, and because teams doled out huge offseason deals to players such as Kirk Cousins, Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan, locking them into their spots for the foreseeable future.
Still, there are teams with interesting QB decisions to make. Will the Jaguars move on from the recently benched Blake Bortles? Is the Eli Manning era over in New York? Will the Bucs and Titans commit long term to Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota?
We asked ESPN national NFL writers Dan Graziano, Mike Sando and Field Yates to project the 2019 starting quarterbacks for all 32 teams. They reached consensus in picking several 2018 starters to return, but they also landed on 10 intriguing teams that could be in the market for a new signal-caller.
They explain their picks for all 10 teams below -- you can see them in bold -- and discuss each team's other options:
Jacksonville Jaguars: Two votes for Justin Herbert, one for Tyrod Taylor
QBs under contract in 2019: Blake Bortles ($16 million), Cody Kessler ($912,000)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 9
Projected cap space: minus-$19 million
Graziano: The Jaguars are a year late with their entry into the quarterback market. They should have called Kirk Cousins last year and certainly should have addressed the position in the draft. Fortunately, it appears they'll be back in their accustomed top-five spot in the draft, possibly surrounded by teams that don't need to draft quarterbacks. So I say give them Oregon's Herbert, the top QB in this year's class, and they end up getting lucky. What to do with Bortles? Doesn't much matter. They could cut him, owe him only $6.5 million in guaranteed money next year and get by with a rookie who's making very little, making their total QB spend reasonable (even including $16.5 million in dead money). They could keep Bortles as the backup, even at a $21 million cap number, for the same reason. Point is, it's past time for the Jaguars to think about a post-Bortles future at the position.
Yates: The Jaguars seemed to have cast their die when they signed Bortles to a three-year deal this offseason that would carry that hefty dead-cap charge if cut before 2019. The narrative has changed now that Bortles has been benched. How can they keep him as the starter? If Jacksonville keeps losing and gets a top-five pick, Herbert -- or the top-ranked QB prospect if Herbert decides to return to school -- makes a ton of sense. As Dan said, who else at the top of the draft needs a quarterback? It could be an interesting battle between Tom Coughlin's new team and his former team in New York for the No. 1 signal-caller. Either way, the Jags' QB problem can't persist into next season.
Sando: The Jaguars effectively made a two-year commitment to Bortles last offseason, which puts them in a predicament now. Maybe they do bring in Taylor, who is a free agent after the season, in hopes his low-turnover style lets the Jaguars win with their defense and ground game. I expect them to redouble their efforts to field the defense and ground game to support a limited QB. They could draft a prospect as well -- even if he doesn't start right away -- and monitor the Eli Manning situation.
Baltimore Ravens: Consensus for Lamar Jackson
QBs under contract in 2019: Joe Flacco ($18.5 million), Jackson ($911,000)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 22
Projected cap space: $27.6 million
Graziano: The Lamar era is upon us! It's already begun! Look, I have no idea what happens in Baltimore at quarterback the rest of the way. My instinct is to say that whatever the Ravens are designing for Jackson isn't ready yet and Sunday's game plan likely isn't sustainable for a team trying to make the playoffs and save coaches' jobs, so Flacco plays again at some point if he can get healthy. But Jackson was the first-round pick, and the Ravens aren't going to want to wait long to transition to him. I think it's his job next year, and that Baltimore's offense looks a lot different from the one we're used to seeing.
Sando: You're probably right on this one, especially if the team keeps winning with Jackson in the lineup. Cutting Flacco would save the Ravens $10 million under the 2019 cap, and they could spread the $16 million in dead money over two seasons. This could be the time to make the break. It's tough to know whether Jackson can hold up physically and pass the ball consistently enough, but the alternative is ... Joe Flacco, so why not see what Jackson can do?
Yates: It's not often that a team pivots to a new coach and a new starting quarterback in the same offseason. It could happen for the Ravens, however, as John Harbaugh's job likely isn't safe unless the team makes the playoffs, and Jackson has helped Baltimore win three straight games with Flacco out of the lineup. Flacco has a $26.5 million cap hit in 2019, a huge number for a backup. Can the Ravens realistically keep him on the roster if he's not going to play? Jackson should make major strides during his first full NFL offseason.
Miami Dolphins: Two votes for Ryan Tannehill, one for Joe Flacco
QBs under contract in 2019: Tannehill ($18.7 million), Luke Falk ($570,000)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 13
Projected cap space: $13.9 million
Sando: The Dolphins can't bank on Tannehill staying healthy or playing well. Will they have better options? If they cut Tannehill, they would take on $13.4 million in dead money to save not quite that much under the cap. This team could plausibly finish 7-9 or 8-8, which would push Miami outside the top 10 in the draft order. If you can't draft a 2019 Week 1 starter, how do you feel about paying, say, $18 million to a veteran (think Case Keenum last offseason) while eating $13.4 million in dead money for Tannehill? How Tannehill finishes should provide additional clarity for the Dolphins.
Graziano: It could, but the reason I went with Flacco here is because of the potential for big change at the top in Miami. The injuries are reaching a critical point, and it's possible the Dolphins bottom out and move on from coach Adam Gase, who is Tannehill's biggest supporter in the organization. And while you're right, Mike, about the difficulty they'd face trying to find Tannehill's successor in the draft, this could be the funkiest QB free-agent offseason we've seen in a while, with guys like Flacco, Tyrod Taylor, Eli Manning, Jameis Winston and more out there looking for jobs. I was figuring a new coach would bring in a new QB, and Flacco was as good a guess as any -- especially if that new coach is, say, John Harbaugh!
Yates: Whoa -- the Ravens are on a three-game winning streak! Both of you make great points, and I whittled this down to Tannehill or a veteran free agent as the Dolphins will likely need to mortgage draft capital to reach high enough in the order to select a top signal-caller in what many across the league view as a weak QB class. I landed back on Tannehill, as there's no assurance that a veteran signing provides a huge difference in play, and we know there will be a significant price tag involved, as Mike says.
Oakland Raiders: Consensus for Derek Carr
QBs under contract in 2019: Carr ($20 million), AJ McCarron ($5 million)
Projected 2019 pick: Nos. 2, 23 and 25
Projected cap space: $72.3 million
Yates: One way to look at this situation: There's an easy out in Carr's contract after the season, and Jon Gruden and his quarterback already have had one high-profile sideline disagreement so far. Another way? Carr is extremely talented, just 27, and has four manageable years left on his contract. The Raiders have plans to rebuild the roster through the draft, and they have the capital to do it. Despite their abundance of picks, they can't fill every hole, and Carr is a key roster piece to keep.
Graziano: With a trio of first-round picks in 2019 and two more in 2020, Gruden will be able to control this year's draft. If there's a quarterback he sees as the future of the Las Vegas Raiders, he'll be in position to make sure he gets him. And as Field points out, there's nothing in Carr's contract that would prohibit the Raiders from moving on. Nevertheless, I still see one more year, at least, for Carr with the Raiders. If Gruden takes a young guy in the draft, the rookie might not be ready to play right away. And if he doesn't -- as it's possible Gruden decides to use all of those high picks to rebuild his defense -- the Raiders will need Carr the caretaker around until they figure out the replacement. This is the part where Carr's contract helps the team operate any way it wants. If the Raiders have to keep him and pay him $20 million next year, that would be among the least of their problems.
Sando: I think there's a decent chance the Raiders will trade Carr this coming offseason and a better chance Gruden will have a different starter before the team plays its first game in Las Vegas in 2020. Long term, Carr simply is not going to become the steely leader Gruden wants his quarterback to be. He would still seem to be the favorite to start in 2019.
New York Giants: Two votes for Teddy Bridgewater, one for Eli Manning
QBs under contract in 2019: Manning ($17 million), Kyle Lauletta ($570,000)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 6
Projected cap space: $23.9 million
Sando: I didn't have the heart to print it at the time, but a GM told me early in the season that he could see the Giants getting hot late in the season, once the offensive weaponry had become established in the new system. That could be happening now, and if the trend continues, bringing back Manning to mentor a newly drafted quarterback and serve as a bridge starter could appeal to the Giants. I see them drafting a quarterback in the first round. If Justin Herbert stays at Oregon, the Giants could turn to a prospect like Daniel Jones from Duke, whose association with David Cutcliffe could give the organization some comfort in light of the Manning brothers' affinity for the highly regarded coach.
Yates: Manning will be 38 in January, and the Giants could easily move on from him after the season, incurring just $6.2 million in dead-cap charges. That means turning to someone like Bridgewater, who might be the best free-agent option on the QB market, even though he has attempted only three regular-season passes over the past three seasons. The Giants believe their talent is far better than their record, and Bridgewater, who was on the Vikings' roster when Giants coach Pat Shurmur was there, could be a more attractive option than a rookie. A team like the Giants will likely view Bridgewater as a capable talent ready for a second act as the starter.
Graziano: One of the criticisms the Giants have absorbed this year as they've stuck by Manning is that he isn't mobile enough to allow for sufficient creativity or flexibility on offense. Bridgewater would address that issue in a way that would appeal to the fan base and a coach who knows him from their time together in Minnesota. If Herbert stays in school, or if the Giants win enough games in December that they aren't in position to draft him, they'll have to do something at the position. Bridgewater still carries enough whiff of future potential that it won't feel to the fans (or the locker room) as if they're bringing in some late-career retread to hold down the fort until they come up with a better answer. As Field says, Bridgewater is a great compromise between drafting a kid and signing an old guy.
Denver Broncos: Consensus for Case Keenum
QBs under contract in 2019: Keenum ($18 million)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 20
Projected cap space: $39.7 million
Sando: The Broncos need to line up their future at the position, so I understand the feeling they could draft a quarterback in the first round. But with Keenum having $7 million in guaranteed salary for 2019, he could be part of the equation as well -- especially if Denver finishes in the 7-9 or 8-8 range, which is definitely possible when taking into account upcoming games against the 49ers, Browns and Raiders. The Broncos also get a home game against the Chargers, whom they already defeated.
Yates: Opportunity cost is essential to consider for quarterbacks, so let's assess what Denver has: With a draft pick likely to be in the middle of the first round, finding a surefire quarterback would require trading up. Do John Elway & Co. really want to use those assets to move up? Keenum has been average this season, and while he doesn't profile as the long-term answer, he's good enough for Denver to either consider a quarterback prospect to develop behind him -- maybe even in Round 2 -- or wait a year to go shopping again.
Graziano: Unlike the Jaguars, who are working with years of evidence that they're never going to get any more from Bortles than what they're getting, the Broncos could absolutely talk themselves into another year of Keenum at his current price. Factor in their thirst for stability at the position after changing starters three times last season and twice the year before, and they might even be leaning that way -- even if they draft a QB in the first round to take over when Keenum's time there is up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Consensus for Jameis Winston
QBs under contract in 2019: Winston ($20.9 million)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 10
Projected cap space: $13.9 million
Yates: There's speculation that Tampa Bay will turn over its front office and coaching staff this offseason, which might actually increase Winston's chances of sticking around. A new regime could decide that parting ways with Winston -- despite his $20.9 million price tag in 2019 -- would be too much change for one team in an offseason. Remember: While Winston has had no shortage of poor decisions on the field during his career, an incoming coach could talk himself into a 25-year-old No. 1 overall pick who threw for more than 8,000 yards in his first two seasons. And Winston is under contract only through 2019.
Graziano: Agree with Field here -- I think Winston finishes this season strong and ownership decides it can't risk letting him go elsewhere and flourish. It may even be, after all the turmoil and controversy of this season, that the Bucs can get Winston to agree to knock down that 2019 price by agreeing to a two-year, Bortles-style contract extension. Pack the thing with incentives and let Winston earn his way back into trust. It might be a better option than heading back out into the QB wilderness, where teams can get lost for decades.
Sando: Winston could be playing his way into the job, so I will lean toward him for now. The problem is, the Buccaneers cannot trust him on or off the field. That is tough enough with Winston's $6.3 million annual salary ranking only 11th on the team. Imagine the message ownership would be sending if Winston returned as the highest-paid player on the team. If Winston plays well enough down the stretch, the Bucs will fall in the draft order, increasing the odds he returns. Otherwise, a prospect such as Jones could be the second or third QB off the board, and the Bucs could be in position to nab him. Much could also hinge on whether the Bucs have new leadership.
Dallas Cowboys: Consensus for Dak Prescott
QBs under contract in 2019: Prescott ($720,000), Cooper Rush ($645,000), Mike White ($570,000)
Projected 2019 pick: Traded to Oakland Raiders
Projected cap space: $43.1 million
Sando: Prescott has the makeup to be the franchise quarterback in Dallas. The team can win with him leading a run-heavy offense as long as the defense is strong, which increasingly seems probable. Jerry Jones is not yet financially committed to Prescott, so there's always a chance he'll pivot away from his public support for the third-year quarterback. I just think Jones would rather build around the known (Prescott) than invest in a veteran retread or, worse, dive back into a college quarterback evaluation process so treacherous that Jones himself once thought Paxton Lynch was far preferable to Prescott.
Yates: There are times when I wonder whether Jones publicly states the Cowboys' intentions to extend Prescott beyond this season in order to help build the QB's confidence for this season, but whatever the motivation, Jones has not been shy with his plans. Even if Prescott is not extended, he's such a ridiculous bargain ($720,000 salary for 2019) that the Cowboys are likely to continue to build the roster around him in lieu of replacing him.
Graziano: My understanding of the Cowboys' plans is that Jones believes in Prescott, wants him to succeed and means what he says about extending him. Whether that happens might ultimately depend on the price -- i.e., is Dak willing to take an Andy Dalton-style deal or does he hold out for an Aaron Rodgers-style deal? The Cowboys are loaded with cap space in 2019 and have the ability to extend Prescott, DeMarcus Lawrence, Amari Cooper and Byron Jones if they so choose. I believe that's their plan, and that they view Prescott as the guy for the future.
Tennessee Titans: Consensus for Marcus Mariota
QBs under contract in 2019: Mariota ($20.9 million), Blaine Gabbert ($1.5 million)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 19
Projected cap space: $20.4 million
Graziano: It's easy to pick apart Mariota for his inconsistency and his lack of refinement as a thrower. But as is the case in so many other places, you have to ask yourself what the alternative is. The Titans love Mariota as a person. They love him as a leader. They love what he brings in terms of his athleticism. I don't think there's a question about whether he's there next year. I think the question about Mariota is whether they do a long-term deal with him. And as was the case when I discussed Winston and Prescott, I think the ultimate answer to that question depends on how much he's willing to accept. As for 2019, I have no current reason to believe he won't be the Titans' quarterback if healthy. Which, I know, I know, is a fairly big if.
Sando: I don't think the Titans are married to Mariota, and I'll be a little surprised if they wind up entering into a long-term deal with him this offseason. Injuries could very well make that decision for them. Tennessee might not have a better alternative, which is why I'm listing Mariota as its most likely starter in 2019. In the long term, however, I suspect the Titans' current leadership will want to select its own QB to build around, and will look for a prospect with greater durability than Mariota has shown.
Yates: Make no mistake about it, Mariota has room to grow as a player. He has been up-and-down as a passer, and he has never been a perpetually dangerous runner, despite the athletic ability he showed in college. But the respect Mariota carries within the Titans building is indisputable, and while being a tremendous person is not the only criterion that matters for quarterbacks, he has the intangibles, leadership and football character -- plus an obvious physical skill set -- that teams covet. Look for the Titans to work to continue to let Mariota develop under offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur.
Washington: Consensus for Alex Smith
QBs under contract in 2019: Smith ($15 million), Colt McCoy ($3.5 million)
Projected 2019 pick: No. 15
Projected cap space: $12.8 million
Sando: Smith's injury was devastating and could cost him his trademark mobility, and even his career. I'm going to keep Smith penciled in as the 2019 starter based on his track record as a tough and determined pro. He seems to have capably handled setbacks throughout his career. This looks like his biggest challenge yet.
Graziano: I acknowledge it's going to be tough for him to make it back for Week 1 and maybe at all. There's just no obvious other option on the roster right now. While I'd expect Washington to draft a quarterback -- and it's projected to pick in the middle of Round 1 -- I don't know how likely he'd be to start Week 1. So I'll say Smith with a hedge as the player most likely to lead this team in quarterback starts in 2019, with the understanding that Washington will be in the offseason QB market, which could change things.
Yates: Washington should absolutely draft a developmental quarterback in April. As Dan noted, though, can it get a Day 1 starter with a pick outside the top 10? Smith got $71 million guaranteed when he signed an extension with Washington in the offseason, and the team can't easily move on from him until after the 2020 season because of his contract. That means he is the odds-on favorite to be the starter next season ... if healthy.