The past year was a profitable time for talented NFL wide receivers seeking new contracts.
The party cranked up March 12 when the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Mike Evans raised the ceiling for elite wideouts with a five-year, $82.5 million contract. A couple of days later, Sammy Watkins leveraged interest from the Dallas Cowboys and Chicago Bears into a three-year, $48 million deal with the Kansas City Chiefs.
By the time Odell Beckham Jr. commanded a receiver-record $18 million per season from the New York Giants in August, NFL teams had signed 10 receivers to deals that spanned at least three seasons, averaged at least $8 million per year and included more than $14 million in guarantees. The bar had been raised more than once.
Twelve weeks isn't long enough to return final verdicts on these deals for Beckham, Evans, Brandin Cooks, Watkins, Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs, Allen Robinson, Tyler Lockett, Paul Richardson and Albert Wilson. Instead, I've placed these signings into four buckets reflecting how general managers should feel about their signings (click on any bucket to skip ahead to that section):
Bucket 1: GM can, with a straight face, brag about the deal to team ownership and anyone else at mythical cocktail parties.
Bucket 2: GM can say he would do the deal again, and the masses would nod in agreement.
Bucket 3: GM can credibly say he would do the deal again, but a jury of his peers might question the value.
Bucket 4: GM would prefer the subject not come up at this time; he'd rather listen to local talk radio following a defeat.
Bucket 1
Brandin Cooks, Los Angeles Rams
Contract: five years, $81 million with $50.5 million guaranteed ($16.2 million APY)
Numbers so far: 59 catches for 964 yards and three touchdowns
16-game pace: 86 catches, 1,402 yards, 4 TDs
The Rams emerged from Week 11 averaging 32.5 offensive points per game while ranking No. 1 in ESPN's offensive efficiency metric. Unlike last season, when the Rams' offense put up big numbers despite only 39 receptions and 593 yards from No. 1 receiver Sammy Watkins, this Rams team is getting big numbers from its top wideout. Cooks has already blown away Watkins' numbers from 2017. He's on pace for career highs in receptions and yardage.
Yes, the Rams gave up first- and sixth-round picks in acquiring Cooks from New England, but they did get back a fourth-rounder in the trade. And by letting Watkins walk in free agency, the Rams are in line to collect a 2019 third-round compensatory choice. They basically subtracted Watkins and first- and sixth-round picks while adding Cooks and third- and fourth-round picks.
Cooks is now tied with DeAndre Hopkins for the fourth-highest APY among wide receivers behind Beckham ($18 million), Antonio Brown ($17 million) and Evans ($16.5 million). Is he as dynamic as those guys? He headed into the Rams' Week 12 bye leading this list of 10 receivers in targets (14), receptions (seven) and receiving yards on passes traveling at least 25 yards past the line of scrimmage.
"When he is in the game, you have to watch out for him running deep and catching the ball," a veteran defensive coach said. "He is a game-plan consideration because of the speed. Not all these guys are."
Another question: Did the Rams really need to invest so much in the position when less-heralded wideouts are flourishing under Sean McVay?
Teammate Robert Woods has matched Cooks' production through 11 games, not just overall but in the explosive-play category as well. Both emerged from Week 11 tied for second behind Julio Jones in receptions longer than 15 yards (26 apiece). Woods, Cooper Kupp and even Josh Reynolds have all contributed front-line numbers when called upon. Would the offense be humming along just the same if the Rams had held onto the 23rd pick in the draft and selected DJ Moore or Calvin Ridley?
These are fair questions, but the bottom line is that Cooks is producing career-best numbers for arguably the NFL's best offense, and the Rams are 10-1.
Tyler Lockett, Seattle Seahawks
Contract: three years, $30.75 million with $20 million guaranteed ($10.25 million APY)
Numbers so far: 43 catches, 661 yards, 8 TDs
16-game pace: 63 catches, 961 yards, 12 TDs
Lockett was the receiver who got behind the Carolina Panthers' secondary on an improvised play for a 43-yard reception to set up the winning field goal Sunday. It was his seventh reception of the season on passes traveling at least 25 yards past the line of scrimmage. Five of the seven have come in the fourth quarter, with four of those adding between 16.5 percent and 30.4 percent of win probability.
The main concern in re-signing Lockett was that he'd suffered a severely broken leg in a 2016 Week 16 game against Arizona and did not appear to possess all his previous speed last season. The $10.25 million annual average was arguably steep for a player with 1,152 yards and three touchdowns over the previous two seasons.
In retrospect, Lockett would be in line for much more if the team had decided to wait another year before determining whether he was all the way back from the injury. Seattle now looks smart for prioritizing Lockett over Paul Richardson when calculating which young receiver to re-sign before free agency this past offseason.
Lockett has supplanted the banged-up Doug Baldwin as Russell Wilson's most dangerous target. The 2015 third-round pick emerged from Week 12 with more receiving touchdowns than any of the 10 wideouts on this list despite playing in Seattle's low-volume pass offense.
Stefon Diggs, Minnesota Vikings
Contract: five years, $72 million with $40 million guaranteed ($14.4 million APY)
Numbers so far: 79 catches, 790 yards, 6 TDs
16-game pace: 126 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs
Diggs should easily reach 100 receptions and 1,000 yards receiving, which would represent career highs and a strong return on investment. Bigger picture: Getting this deal done helped allay concerns that the Vikings might struggle to re-sign core players after committing so much to Kirk Cousins.
The question is whether you're comfortable slotting $14.4 million per year for a very good receiver who isn't necessary a game-plan consideration along the lines of Beckham, Julio Jones and the top guys. On the other hand, $14.4 million is much less than Beckham is getting, and it's less than Jones would command if he were not already locked into a deal averaging $14.25 million.
"Diggs is a good signing," an exec said. "He is a good route runner who offers a security blanket for two different quarterbacks, [Case] Keenum and Cousins. The only thing you'd like is a little more top-end speed. He isn't Beckham, but he is going to have 90 catches and a good number of touchdowns."
Diggs' durability is one concern. He missed one game to a rib injury this season and has never logged a 16-game season. He has never missed extended stretches, however, and his production has not waned. He caught 13 passes for 126 yards and a touchdown against Chicago in his first game back from the rib injury.
Minnesota knew the price for Diggs was only going to climb as he drew closer to free agency (his four-year rookie deal was set to expire in March 2019). The Vikings also knew that Diggs, like Lockett, had not made big money on his rookie deal. Those factors allowed the team to reach agreement with Diggs on a deal that, while expensive, fit into its salary structure.
"Diggs can win outside or in the slot," a veteran offensive coach said before the Vikings extended Diggs' deal. "That is what you are looking for if you are going to pay him like an elite guy."
Bucket 2
Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants
Contract: five years and $90 million with $65 million guaranteed ($18 million APY)
Numbers so far: 74 catches, 1,017 yards, 5 TDs
16-game pace: 108 catches, 1,479 yards, 7 TDs
My first priority in starting this project was to watch every pass target for all 10 receivers in their past three games heading into Week 12, just to get a better feel for them. It didn't take long to see that Beckham really is different from the others.
The first play that popped onto the screen was Beckham's incredible left-handed grab for a 44-yard gain against Washington despite pass interference from the Redskins on the play. Beckham also made a leaping one-handed grab in traffic for a 15-yard gain in the same game, keeping his feet when he landed and nearly breaking away for a longer gain. Those were the two most memorable plays from all the receivers' targets.
There can be no bragging about this deal from a GM's perspective, however. The Giants are not having a great season, the price for Beckham was higher than it was for the other receivers and Beckham remains disruptive with his public criticisms of the coaching staff. Still, the Giants were able to retain a truly elite young talent without resorting to tactics such as the franchise tag. Beckham is on pace for career highs in receptions and yardage.
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Contract: five years and $82.5 million with $55 million guaranteed ($16.5 million APY)
Numbers so far: 62 catches, 1,073 yards, 5 TDs
16-game pace: 89 catches, 1,561 yards, 7 TDs
The Buccaneers, like the Giants, aren't playing well enough to brag about this deal, but the team can feel good about keeping Evans for the long haul. Evans passed 1,000 yards receiving for the season Sunday and has a career-best 1,073 through 11 games.
Is he a game-plan consideration?
"In the red zone," a defensive coach who faced Tampa Bay last season said. "He is a catching-radius guy, not a speed guy, and he is dealing with a quarterback situation in flux, and still producing."
Evans ranks No. 1 by a wide margin among these 10 receivers in air yards per target (14.8), a reflection of Tampa Bay's aggressive downfield passing attack. Evans also heads this list by a wide margin in percentage of receptions made after aligning wide instead of in the slot (90.3 percent), a reflection of his reliance on size, not shiftiness. He's tied with Cooks for second behind Beckham in receptions gaining more than 15 yards. He is first among these 10 in number of third-down catches for first downs.
Bucket 3
Jarvis Landry, Cleveland Browns
Contract: five years and $75.5 million with $47 million guaranteed ($15.1 million APY)
Numbers so far: 60 catches, 630 yards, 2 TDs
16-game pace: 87 catches, 916 yards, 3 TDs
The Browns needed a proven receiver, but it's easy to question giving up fourth- and seventh-round picks for the right to pay $15.1 million per year to a slot receiver with a career average near 10 yards per reception.
Landry is the only receiver on this list with more than half his receptions (63 percent) coming from the slot (Albert Wilson is at 50 percent).
"I like him and would love to have him, but there is no comparison with the other guys who are making more than $15 million," a personnel director said.
The table ranks these 10 receivers by percentage of receptions made aligned wide. Slot production is obviously valuable, but at the highest level, evaluators also grade wideouts on their ability to win outside. Landry is less feared in that department.
Sammy Watkins, Kansas City Chiefs
Contract: three years and $48 million with $30 million guaranteed ($16 million APY)
Numbers so far: 40 catches, 519 yards, 3 TDs
16-game pace: 64 catches, 830 yards, 5 TDs
Upon signing Watkins, the Chiefs lauded him as an "elite playmaker" who could become the NFL's best receiver. They called it a rare opportunity to acquire such a talent. Watkins, landing with his third team in three seasons, instantly embraced the opportunity to diversify his route tree and become more than just a deep threat. It might be too early to say exactly where this is headed.
For now, Watkins is averaging 8.4 air yards per target. That is down from 14.7 for his career previously, and less than the career average for Seattle tight end Ed Dickson. At his current pace, Watkins would finish with 830 yards, which would be down from 982 with the Rams last season, which was down from 1,047 with Buffalo the year before.
These are minor concerns for a team averaging 34.2 offensive points per game while ranking behind only the Rams in offensive efficiency.
"There are only so many times you can throw deep in a game and Tyreek Hill is still making those plays," an exec said.
Indeed, Hill has 11 receptions on passes traveling at least 25 yards past the line of scrimmage, four more than any other player in the NFL. Cooks, Evans and Lockett are part of a group tied for second with seven. Watkins has one, same as Kareem Hunt.
That will presumably change at some point. For now, we wonder: Instead of creating a $16 million-per-year slot for Watkins, would the Chiefs be better off having re-signed Albert Wilson for $8 million while adding another $8 million player in free agency? Then again, it's tough being better off than 9-2.
The table shows air yards per target for the 10 wideouts:
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears
Contract: three years and $42 million with $25.2 million guaranteed ($14 million APY)
Numbers so far: 34 catches, 457 yards, 4 TDs
16-game pace: 68 catches, 914 yards, 8 TDs
In a perfect Bears world, the team would have signed Robinson to a one-year, prove-it deal, working out an extension only if Robinson fit in well and bounced back strong from the torn ACL that precipitated his departure from Jacksonville. In the Bears' actual world, they were desperate enough for help at receiver to chase hard after both Watkins and Robinson until they got one or the other, and they had to do a multiyear deal for significant money to get their guy.
Such is the nature of free agency. Robinson, Watkins, Wilson and Richardson were the four wideouts on this list who reached the market. They're the ones filling most of the third and fourth buckets. Teams know going into the process that they'll almost always overpay in free agency, and they'll usually get players carrying question marks. For Robinson, it was the knee. Some also questioned whether he could handle press coverage from the better corners the way true No. 1 receivers can.
So far, Robinson's numbers line up pretty closely with the numbers for Watkins. His deal isn't quite as expensive. The Bears, like the Chiefs, are much improved on offense. Robinson, like Watkins, is part of that improvement without driving it.
Unlike Watkins, Robinson has four receptions on passes traveling 25-plus yards downfield, matching the 2017 Bears' entire team total for all 16 games. Robinson is only nine games into his return from ACL surgery, so that deep-ball production is encouraging. But he has missed two games with a groin injury
Albert Wilson, Miami Dolphins
Contract: three years and $24 million with $14.45 million guaranteed ($8 million APY)
Numbers so far: 26 catches, 391 yards, 4 TDs
16-game pace: 59 catches, 894 yards, 9 TDs
Wilson doesn't compare to most of the receivers on this list in terms of playing style and contract. Instead of signing one of those other wideouts for $14-16 million per year, the Dolphins reached that combined total by signing Wilson and Danny Amendola. Wilson made three starts in seven games before suffering a season-ending hip injury one week after a breakout game against Chicago.
Wilson's stats project to career highs for receptions, yardage and touchdowns had he sustained them for 16 games, but the injury he suffered in Week 7 will make this the fifth time in six seasons Wilson will miss multiple games.
"How much do you hold it against them when a guy gets hurt who has been hurt before?" an exec asked. "That probably determines where you place him."
Bucket 4
Paul Richardson, Washington Redskins
Contract: five years and $40 million with $20 million guaranteed ($8 million APY)
Numbers so far: 20 catches, 262 yards, 2 TDs
16-game pace: 46 catches, 599 yards, 5 TDs
The Redskins are suffering through a brutal season on the injury front. While they never could have anticipated quarterback Alex Smith suffering a Joe Theismann type of injury, they knew Richardson's medical history was extensive.
The shoulder injury Richardson suffered in Week 1 this season lingered until the team placed him on injured reserve earlier this month.
Not every team believes past injuries predict future ones, but the pattern seems clear with Richardson since the 6-foot, 180-pound receiver entered the NFL.
Richardson suffered a torn ACL in the playoffs following his 2014 rookie season. He returned in December 2015 and made a 40-yard reception -- his only catch of the season -- only to suffer a season-ending hamstring injury on the play. Richardson returned to catch 21 passes with no starts in 2016. His 44 receptions for 703 yards and six touchdowns in 2017 led Washington to sign him in free agency.