A forgettable Week 11 game that was broadcast only in portions of Arizona, California and Nevada flipped the script atop the 2019 NFL draft.
The Oakland Raiders' last-second victory over the Arizona Cardinals more than doubled Arizona's chances for landing the first overall pick at the Raiders' expense, according to ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI).
While it's relatively easy to project which teams will be picking atop the next draft, the teams themselves do not yet have a clear idea which players they'll select. Early themes did emerge when I polled five NFL executives in recent days. They see two positions and a short list of players as currently in play for the top choice, with some fascinating potential scenarios for teams near the top.
A quick look at the draft order
A rookie kicker with four successful field goal tries in eight career attempts jogged onto the field Sunday in Arizona with more than the game's outcome on the line.
If Daniel Carlson's kick from 35 yards out succeeded, the Raiders' chances for holding the No. 1 overall pick would plummet from 51 percent before the game to 22 percent afterward. The Cardinals' chances would jump to 46 percent from 22 percent before the game.
Carlson made the kick, lifting the Raiders to a 23-21 victory that reset the projected draft order.
ESPN's FPI shows a nearly 90 percent chance that either Arizona, Oakland or San Francisco will hold the first overall pick. The New York Jets are the only other team with more than a 2 percent shot. Tampa Bay and the New York Giants are on the fringes.
One clear favorite ... if he comes out
The five execs agreed that Oregon quarterback Justin Herbert is the No. 1 variable in this draft.
If Herbert declares for the draft, all five execs think he could become the top overall choice for a team needing a quarterback. They do not see other offensive players worthy of the top selection. They see defensive line as the strongest position both overall and at the very top.
"I don't know who is coming out, but the Oregon quarterback is going to be the first quarterback to go -- if not at one, then early," an exec said. "If one of these teams that already has a quarterback is picking No. 1, they are probably looking to trade it."
Would the Raiders trade Derek Carr if they had a shot at Herbert? It's one of the more compelling questions given all the moves coach Jon Gruden and Oakland have made.
"It takes a strong guy to play for Jon and I think it takes a veteran," one exec said. "He might say he's always wanted a highly drafted QB, but what he really wants is Rich Gannon or Brad Johnson. Maybe he goes another year with Carr 'til the right vet comes around."
The four teams with the greatest shot at selecting first overall -- Arizona, Oakland, San Francisco and the Jets -- already have expensive young quarterbacks. The Raiders or 49ers could conceivably part ways with their current starters if they loved Herbert sufficiently, but the Giants could be the team to watch.
"The biggest thing for the Giants is going to be someone trading up over them," another exec said. "Those other teams at the top, none are going to take a quarterback unless the Raiders do. The Giants gotta take one. Herbert is so talented. Someone may fall in love with the Duke quarterback [Daniel Jones] because of [Duke coach] David Cutcliffe, but you get down into some of these other quarterbacks and you might like your own guy better."
Beyond Herbert: Bosa & Co.
Two of the five execs listed Ohio State defensive end Nick Bosa as their choice for the No. 1 pick if Herbert is not in the mix. Another exec mentioned Houston defensive lineman Ed Oliver. The remaining two execs said it was simply too early to focus on a single player.
"I think it's a given that the No. 1 pick will be one of the top D-linemen or the quarterback [Herbert]," an exec said.
Execs mentioned Michigan defensive tackle Rashan Gary, Kentucky outside linebacker Josh Allen, Alabama defensive tackle Quinnen Williams and LSU cornerback Greedy Williams as potential top-five picks. There was some thought Alabama defensive lineman Raekwon Davis could be rated higher by teams than in media reports, and that the gap would close once Davis' physical abilities were on wider display at the scouting combine.
Some also see Jones, the Duke quarterback, as a player who could jump into the top five or 10 picks based on positional value.
"Nick Bosa is my top guy," another exec said. "He is better than his brother [Joey, of the Chargers]. You're getting a guy who gets double-digit sack production every year. You watch him and it doesn't take long to see it."
This exec said there could be 10 or more defensive linemen selected in the first round, unless teams pass on the position under the assumption they can still get a very good player at the position in the second round.
"No matter what type of defensive lineman you want, there is a guy you could justify being atop your board," another exec said. "Bosa, Ed Oliver, Rashan Gary. A lot of these guys are juniors, so it all depends if they come out. I think the Oregon quarterback and the Duke quarterback are legit. Alabama has a couple defensive linemen who are both really good -- top-15 good if they are not No. 1-pick good. I don't know if there are any offensive linemen that warrant that high of a pick."
Quick thoughts on four teams
The four teams with more than a puncher's chance of emerging with the first overall choice have some obvious needs. We address those teams here in order of their likelihood of picking first:
Arizona Cardinals (46.1 percent chance)
Execs agreed that the Cardinals need help at offensive tackle and wide receiver to better support quarterback Josh Rosen, but they didn't think this draft offered players at those positions worthy of the first pick. Trading down from the top spot can be easier in theory than in practice, but if Herbert declared for the draft, the top pick could become more of an appealing asset.
"Arizona has some defensive ends, so if they did not take Bosa, the interior defensive line could be the target," an exec said. "One of the Alabama linemen, maybe Gary from Michigan -- all those guys are legit talents to be up there. Raekwon Davis is a DeForest Buckner/Calais Campbell-type player physically, but the production is not there."
Oakland Raiders (21.9 percent chance)
The Raiders obviously need pass-rush help after trading Khalil Mack and releasing Bruce Irvin. Did they acquire all those picks in the Mack and Amari Cooper trades to find the next Macks and Coopers? Or did they acquire those picks to better maneuver for a quarterback in the future? It's not clear whether the Raiders had a specific plan in place.
"Bosa to Oakland just feels like a fit," an exec said. "There are some concerns about long-term durability for Bosa, but he is a really good player."
San Francisco 49ers (20.7 percent chance)
Allen, the edge rusher from Kentucky, made sense for the 49ers in talking through potential options with a longtime evaluator.
"I don't know if they would look at him as more of a Leo [open-side rusher], but I would say he is more of a Sam," an exec said. "The biggest thing is, he can rush. He has better length and is more athletic than a Cliff Avril, in my opinion. He could help the 49ers."
New York Jets (7.6 percent chance)
The Jets, like the Cardinals, need offensive playmakers. This isn't necessarily the draft to find them at the very top.
"They could really use a corner, too," an exec said, "but whoever the best offensive player is, they need him. They have zero weapons. [D.K.] Metcalf, the receiver out of Ole Miss, is a freak athlete. That is too high for him, probably, but if New York gets desperate and says they need talent for [Sam] Darnold, Metcalf is one guy I could see potentially being up there."