ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks NFL insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 12. This week's games: Falcons-Saints, Seahawks-Panthers, Browns-Bengals, Steelers-Broncos and Packers-Vikings.
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Thursday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: NO by 13 | Insiders pick: NO (3/3)
All three insiders were going to pick the Saints, but I wondered how much they loved New Orleans and whether they thought the point spread was realistic.
"Divisional games are closer, especially with the Saints," one insider said. "Most teams are not used to the tempo and style of New Orleans and just the way they play. Teams in the division know what to expect. I understand the Falcons' defense is banged up and they are not the same team, but I actually think this could be a pretty good game."
The Saints have played two games against NFC South opponents this season. They lost at home to Tampa Bay in a 48-40 shootout to open the season. They won 43-37 at Atlanta. And while New Orleans routed Philadelphia and Cincinnati by a combined 78 points over the past two weeks, six of the Saints' other eight games were decided by 10 or fewer points.
"Man, the Saints are a buzz saw right now and I don't see Atlanta stopping them," another insider said. "They just have too many weapons right now."
Are the Saints a great team? The insiders called New Orleans very good.
"Their defense is not good -- not good enough to be great," one of the insiders said. "But the way that quarterback [Drew Brees] is playing, the way that offense is playing, it carries them."
The third insider said he thought how teams jelled during the final six or seven weeks would reveal whether they ascended into a truly elite category.
"If it is a back-and-forth game where you can manipulate their defense, they can be exposed, especially their safeties," another insider said. "They love to crowd the box in their run game and bring Vonn Bell down to cover. What they do is get an early lead, then tee off and rush you like the Colts used to, pinning their ears back and playing with house money."
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: CIN by 3 | Insiders pick: CLE (3/3)
The Browns are riding a 25-game road losing streak dating to a 33-30 victory over Baltimore in Week 5 of the 2015 season. All three insiders are taking Cleveland in this matchup. I figured one or two of them might, but all three?
"Cincinnati's linebacker play has been so bad this year, and I think Cleveland can find ways to exploit that with Duke Johnson, [David] Njoku and those guys," one of the insiders said. "I felt like the Bengals' front and pass-rush would have more of an effect."
Before nearly winning at Baltimore last week, the Bengals allowed more than 39 offensive points per game during a four-game stretch against New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Kansas City and Pittsburgh. Those teams have averaged more than 30 points per game against everyone else.
"Without A.J. Green being 100 percent, I don't think Cincy is playing with any confidence," the second insider said. "I also think Baker Mayfield brings a lot of energy to the Browns."
The third insider thought the Browns' defense and running game could make the difference.
"I don't see Cincy blocking Myles Garrett at all," this insider said. "And then the Browns are playing to Baker Mayfield's strengths. The Atlanta game was very impressive. He started 13-of-13 passing. Nick Chubb is getting to run the ball little bit. Coming off a bye, I'll take Cleveland."
Seattle Seahawks at Carolina Panthers
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: CAR by 3.5 | Insiders pick: CAR (2/3)
Counting playoff matchups, these teams have faced each other seven times since Russell Wilson became the Seahawks' quarterback in 2012. Seattle has won five of the meetings, with four of those victories coming at Carolina. However, the Panthers have won two of the past three, and both teams have undergone significant changes since their most recent meeting (2016).
"Carolina laid an egg against Detroit," the insider picking Seattle said. "I did not like the way Russell played against Green Bay. He was not his best self. I think he will be better in this game."
These teams have fielded stout defenses during several of their previous matchups. This time, Seattle ranks 23rd and Carolina is 24th in ESPN's defensive efficiency metric. Carolina is seventh and Seattle 14th on the offensive side. Both teams rank among the league leaders in various rushing stats, with Seattle riding a seven-game streak of at least 150 yards rushing.
"That cross-country travel will be tough for Seattle," one of the insiders picking Carolina said. "Green Bay controlled their game until they didn't at the end. I think Carolina should bounce back. They run the ball well enough, Cam [Newton] is throwing the ball well enough and the game is at home. I'm thinking what happened in Detroit was an abnormal game, an aberration."
The third insider noted that the Panthers' Christian McCaffrey is averaging nearly 20 touches per game, up from 12 last season. He wondered whether the 5-foot-11, 205-pounder could hold up under such a workload for the full season.
"Carolina has fallen off a little bit in the past couple weeks and their offense is not playing at quite the same level," this insider said. "Seattle is starting to get healthier. I trust Russell Wilson more than Cam Newton, but if I have to pick, I'll say Carolina will not lose three in a row and will win this game at home."
The NFL Live crew debates which franchise QB is a better runner: Russell Wilson or Cam Newton.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: PIT by 3 | Insiders pick: PIT (2/3)
The Steelers are 15-1 in their past 16 road games. The Broncos are holding on. Defeating the Chargers on the road pumped up Denver's long-shot playoff chances from 1.1 percent to 4.1 percent, according to ESPN's Football Power Index.
"Denver won an ugly game against the Chargers and I'm taking them to win back-to-back games with Vance Joseph's job on the line," the insider picking Denver said. "The realist in me says Pittsburgh will win, but I'll lean with Denver at home in one of those games where the Steelers lose and you go, 'Wait, why did they lose this one?'"
One of the insiders picking Pittsburgh based his thinking on the Steelers' ability to protect Ben Roethlisberger. The quarterback's 3.3 percent sack rate is the lowest of his career through the Steelers' first 10 games of a season and less than half the 6.7 percent average.
"The only reason I'm going with Pittsburgh is they have been able to keep Ben Roethlisberger upright," the second insider said. "It has been pretty impressive how they have been keeping him healthy and protected. This is a tough matchup with [Von] Miller and [Bradley] Chubb and normally I would not pick against Denver at home, but I'm making an exception."
The third insider said he loves the way Pittsburgh's front seven plays and thinks the Steelers' defense will present a stiff challenge for Denver even though Case Keenum was sterling in his execution of the winning 76-yard field goal drive with 1:51 left and no timeouts last week.
"The way they use their linebackers, [T.J.] Watt and [Bud] Dupree, they are very multiple and hard to prepare against," this insider said. "If you can protect, you can pick apart their back end, but they are really good at breaking you down."
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: MIN by 3.5 | Insiders pick: MIN (2/3)
It feels like the Packers are reeling and perhaps they are, but in losing road games to the Rams, Patriots and Seahawks over the past month, they were quite competitive. The schedule relents late in the season, but not before Green Bay visits Minnesota.
"I'm still in wait-and-see mode on Green Bay, but their defense can be pretty porous and Minnesota is a tough place to play," one of the insiders picking the Vikings said.
The insider picking Green Bay thought the Packers would finally notch a breakthrough road victory after coming tantalizingly close against the Rams and Seahawks.
"All the drama is going to bring those guys together," this insider said. "Whether they reach the playoffs or not, I think they can still get on a nice little run and I think it starts this week. Go back to the first game they played against Minnesota. Green Bay had that game won. The bad roughing call on the sack changed it."
The third insider thought injuries to Rodgers' receiving targets, including Jimmy Graham, would tilt this matchup in the Vikings' favor.
"Rodgers looked out of sync in Seattle and you rarely see him look like that," this insider said. "Minnesota is not what they used to be, either, especially in the secondary. I just think Aaron is trying to do too much."
This insider was curious whether Vikings safety Andrew Sendejo and Packers receiver Randall Cobb would return from injuries. He saw both as important players even though Sendejo's replacement, Anthony Harris, has played to rave reviews, collecting two picks last week.
"I think Sendejo is a difference-maker in terms of the tempo and urgency he brings to the secondary, and then Green Bay needs all the weapons it can get on offense," this insider said. "Both QBs are going to have no wind and a fast track. It is a good matchup and test to see where these two are at."