Our panel of NFL Insiders predicts Week 11's biggest upsets, fantasy flops and potential sleepers.
Plus: Realistic 2019 fits for Le'Veon Bell and potential second-half breakout players.
What's your top upset pick for Week 11?
Matt Bowen, NFL writer: Packers +2.5 over Seahawks. Short week and a long trip out West, but I'm going with Green Bay here. Aaron Jones is finally getting the volume of a No. 1 back, and that's going to create passing game opportunities for Aaron Rodgers versus the Seahawks' three-deep zone coverages. A balanced offensive game plan and Mike Pettine's defense dialing up some pressure give Green Bay an upset win on Thursday night.
Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Titans +2 over Colts. You could see a letdown after Sunday's big home victory over the Patriots, but I just feel like the Titans' defense is playing too well right now. Their front seven should be a match even for an Indy offensive line that's playing lights-out, and Marcus Mariota is finally hitting his groove in the new offense.
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Vikings +3 over Bears. Mitchell Trubisky has put up some monster performances, but they've mostly come against awful defenses. The Vikings' defense has rebounded from a dysfunctional start. Since Week 5, they've allowed opposing quarterbacks to put up an average Total QBR of 37.5, which is second lowest in the league. While Trubisky has taken steps in the right direction, Minnesota poses a real challenge.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Redskins +3 over Texans. Houston has played one game against an opponent that had a winning record at kickoff: a Thursday night home victory over a Brock Osweiler-led Dolphins team that had a 4-3 record despite having lost three of its previous four games. The Redskins are not a great team. They are not an exciting team. But they are 2-0 at home against teams that had winning records at the time, having knocked off Green Bay and Carolina.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Titans +2 over Colts. The Titans do a lot well defensively, which includes playing with an imposing style. They are sure tacklers, are able to generate pressure from a few different angles and have found a recent offensive rhythm. This game features two teams with unquestionably bright futures. This will be a fun one.
Who's your pick for an under-the-radar guy who is going to break out down the stretch of the season?
Bowen: Rashaan Evans, LB, Titans. The rookie is starting to flash the game speed and striking ability that he showed on his college film at Alabama. The next step is to rack up impact plays. And Evans can do that in Mike Vrabel's system.
Graziano: Derrick Henry, RB, Titans. I know, I know, he hasn't been very good. But I also know from talking to Titans coaches that they believe he'll be a factor for them before the year is over. It was obvious Sunday that he's a part of their plan when they get near the goal line, and Tennessee's remaining schedule features a bunch of teams they should be able to build leads against. Once they do that, Henry remains a potent late-game weapon when it's time to run the ball and put teams away.
Kimes: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts. While the second-year player had a quiet game on Sunday, he has been an integral part of the Colts' offense. Much of his improvement stems from the blocking up front. Mack is averaging 3.12 yards before first contact this year, which ranks eighth in the league; in 2017, he averaged just 1.6 rushing yards before getting hit.
Sando: Harold Landry, OLB, Titans. The rookie second-round pick showed enough in the season's first half to suggest he could have a couple breakout games. He had a sack and four tackles two weeks ago against Dallas.
Yates: Marquez Valdes-Scantling, WR, Packers. The rookie has been really fun to watch this season, taking on a larger role almost weekly as the Packers deal with injuries to wide receivers. Not only does MVS offer obvious natural ability, but the Packers also have a generous late-season schedule (Falcons and Jets during the last quarter of the season).
Who's your pick to be the biggest fantasy flop this weekend?
Bowen: Marlon Mack, RB, Colts. Mack still has RB2 value, but don't expect the Colts' feature back to rip off a 100-plus yard day versus the Titans' defense. Mack was held to just 29 yards on 12 carries against the Jags in Week 10, and Tennessee's defense ranks as a top-five unit versus opposing fantasy running backs.
Graziano: Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings. I still like Cook as a helper down the stretch if you've held onto him this long. But it might take until Week 12 for him to really get going. It'll be tempting to play him coming off a big game and a bye, since he's finally healthy for the first time in what feels like forever. Just keep in mind that he's on the road in Chicago, and the Bears are the stingiest team in the league against fantasy running backs.
Kimes: Allen Robinson, WR, Bears. Robinson broke out in a big way this weekend, but I don't expect him to repeat his performance against Minnesota's pass defense, which leads the league in DVOA against No. 1 wide receivers, according to Football Outsiders.
Sando: Lamar Miller, RB, Texans. Miller produced strong fantasy outings in recent victories over Jacksonville and Miami, but now he faces a Washington defense that has generally held opposing backs in check (Tevin Coleman was one giant exception in Week 9).
Yates: Eric Ebron, TE, Colts. Don't bench him, especially given the thin depth at the tight end position, but Ebron hasn't had more than three catches in a game since Week 6, though he has piled up touchdowns. Those are simply harder to sustain week-to-week, and with Jack Doyle playing an unquestioned steady role in Indy, Ebron doesn't figure to be high-volume. By the way, no team has surrendered fewer points to opposing tight ends this season than the Titans, Indy's Week 11 opponent.
Which team is the best fit for Le'Veon Bell in 2019, and why?
Bowen: Texans. I thought about the Bills here. And the Eagles if they got super creative with the salary cap. But the Texans could be a nightmare to defend with the addition of Bell. Misdirection schemes, zone runs and pass game matchups for Deshaun Watson in an offense that already features proven playmakers.
Graziano: Texans. They'll have the cap room and the motivation, whether they win the division this year or not. Putting even more star-caliber pieces around Watson will continue to be Houston's goal, and Bell would help take the offense to a new level.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler discusses Le'Veon Bell deciding not to show up this season for the Steelers and how Pittsburgh is going to have to move on with James Conner.
Kimes: Jets. The Eagles, Bills and Texans all make sense to me, but the Jets seem like the perfect fit. They need to improve their run game, they don't have too much money tied up in the position and they have the second-most cap space in the NFL next season. Adding Bell to the Jets' offense would take some pressure off Sam Darnold, who could also lean on him as a reliable pass catcher.
Sando: Buccaneers. It's way too early to know where Bell might land, but the Buccaneers are the type of team that could make sense. The team needs help at the position. This would be a splash move that could appease ownership following a run of disappointing seasons. Bell would also pay no state income tax in Florida, which should appeal to him as he tries to make up the financial ground he lost by staying away all season (also the case in Houston, another team that comes to mind).
Yates: Jets. The Jets are poised to spend just about limitlessly in free agency, as the team is well positioned with Darnold on his rookie deal (allowing the team to take an aggressive roster-building approach). The Jets are currently devoid of consistent elite offensive playmakers, with the running back position being no exception. Bell would immediately become the centerpiece of the offense.
Pick a fringe fantasy player who should be started in Week 11.
Bowen: Marcus Mariota, QB, Titans. In his past two games, Mariota has posted 468 yards passing and four touchdowns, while adding 53 yards and a score on the ground. With the Colts on tap in Week 11, Mariota will have opportunities to attack 2-deep zone looks and use the play-action passing game to create open window throws in the middle of the field.
Graziano: Alex Collins, RB, Ravens. The Bengals' defense has been a mess and is allowing the fifth-most points to fantasy running backs. Baltimore is at home, coming off a bye and potentially making a change to a rookie quarterback. They're going to want to run the ball in a must-win game against a team that throttled them earlier this season, and I believe they'll have success doing that.
Kimes: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens. Joe Flacco's status for Week 11 is still unclear, but if Jackson takes his spot, he couldn't pick a better opponent for his first NFL start. The Bengals' battered defense has been a tire fire in recent weeks, and it is allowing the third-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Look for Jackson to gain some serious yardage on the ground in this one.
Sando: Josh Reynolds, WR, Rams. The next man up after Cooper Kupp's injury caught two scoring passes against Green Bay in Week 8, when Kupp was unavailable. Why not bet on the Rams' offense against Kansas City?
Yates: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys. While Dak has been inconsistent throughout 2018, the Falcons' defense has been consistently generous to opposing quarterbacks this season. While Nick Foles struggled against Atlanta in Week 1, every quarterback since has thrown for at least 300 passing yards or three passing touchdowns (some have accomplished both) against the Falcons.