ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 7. This week's games: Patriots-Bears, Vikings-Jets, Saints-Ravens, Cowboys-Redskins and Bengals-Chiefs.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: NE by 3 | Insiders pick: NE (2/3)
The Patriots have allowed 40 or more points four times since the start of the 2013 season. That includes three times against Andy Reid's Kansas City Chiefs and a fourth against Doug Pederson's Philadelphia Eagles, with three of those games taking place since the start of last season.
The Reid-Pederson connection is relevant for this matchup because Bears coach Matt Nagy worked with both in Kansas City before joining Chicago this season.
"Couple that with a capable Bears defense at home and I will take Chicago," the lone insider picking an upset said.
Bears quarterback Mitchell Trubisky has nine touchdown passes with one interception in his past two starts.
"He has played well, but I still don't trust him," an insider picking the Patriots said. "I think the Bears' defense will step up a good bit, but that quarterback for New England, he's pretty good."
The Bears suffered a 31-28 defeat at Miami last week, becoming the only team to allow more than 30 points to a team featuring Brock Osweiler in the starting lineup. The jump from Osweiler to Tom Brady is obviously significant. Khalil Mack's health is a key variable. He suffered an ankle injury early in the Miami game and was not his usually productive self.
"I'm expecting New England to go after Chicago's linebackers in the passing game," the third insider said.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: MIN by 3.5 | Insiders pick: MIN (3/3)
Both teams have defense-minded head coaches responsible for big-picture design, in-game adjustments and calling plays. That makes this matchup an interesting one for defensive coaches.
"[Jets coach] Todd Bowles is a good defensive coordinator who plays lots of complicated packages with a ton of jersey numbers that can wreak havoc on protections," one of the insiders said. "He plays 4-2, 3-3, big nickel, little nickel and everything but a wooden nickel. For Minnesota, it's an uncommon opponent out of the conference, so if that is challenging for Kirk Cousins on the road with the line issues they have, the running game could be important."
Andrew Luck had four touchdown passes with three picks in a 42-34 loss to the Jets last week.
"If the Jets can own the line of scrimmage and force Cousins to win in a muddy pocket, which he is not necessarily the best at doing, that is a chance for the Jets to win," another insider said. "I think the Vikings are going to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if it goes the other way because Minnesota has been inconsistent and if there is a way to beat them, the Jets' strength could play into that."
As for Jets rookie Sam Darnold against the Vikings' defense?
"I think [Mike] Zimmer can game plan a rookie quarterback and limit them a little bit," the third insider said. "Minnesota has some injuries in the secondary, but I'm not sure the Jets have the firepower on the edge to take full advantage. Cousins is playing well and the Minnesota defense is starting to bounce back."
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Sunday: 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: BAL by 2.5 | Insiders pick: BAL (2/3)
This was the toughest game for the insiders to pick. New Orleans leads the league in offensive points per game. Baltimore ranks first in fewest points per game allowed to opposing offenses.
"I want the Saints to win," an insider from an AFC team said, "but I think Baltimore's defense is real. On the flip side, I don't think the Saints play as well defensively on the road. This one could go back and forth, but I don't think it is going to be a shootout like some of these other games."
The Saints' defense has been about the same at home as on the road this season, according to ESPN's efficiency metric. It was much better at home than away last season.
"This is the game of the week to me," another insider said. "The Ravens' D has been dominant so far, but you have to look at the offenses they have played -- Buffalo, Tennessee, Denver, Cleveland. I expect this game to be more like when Baltimore played Cincy [34-23 Bengals win]. The first team to 25 points wins, and I'm betting on [Drew] Brees over [Joe] Flacco."
The Ravens have held five of their six opponents to 14 or fewer points, including Pittsburgh. They sacked Marcus Mariota 11 times in a 21-0 victory over the Titans last week.
"Drew Brees holds the ball for one-hundredth of one second, which is a pretty good strategy against the club that just had 11 sacks," another insider said, exaggerating Brees' ability to get the ball out fast. "There are reasons Drew has played for 18 years and had all of his relatives -- and all of his relatives' relatives -- there when he broke the passing record. He will solve that riddle."
Brees has not taken more than three sacks in a game in 39 starts since the beginning of the 2016 season.
"The big key is going to be [Alvin] Kamara as a receiver against Baltimore's linebackers," the third insider said.
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: WSH by 1.5 | Insiders pick: WSH (2/3)
The Cowboys' 40-7 domination of Jacksonville was the most surprising score from Week 6. There is still room on the Dallas bandwagon, apparently.
"I'm expecting an ugly back-and-forth game that comes down to who doesn't turn the ball over, the type of game that could be 13-10," one of the insiders said. "I see the Cowboys flying high after the big win and coming back to earth. It'll come down to whoever manages the game better between Dak [Prescott] and Alex Smith. I'm expecting the under."
The other insider taking Washington said he expected a score more in the 27-23 range. He said he trusted Smith more than he trusted the Dallas defense.
"The Cowboys totally blew my mind winning 40-7 against Jacksonville," the insider picking Dallas said. "I will stick with them off that. They got the run game going. Their defense doesn't have the big-name guys, but they play their asses off."
Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: KC by 6 | Insiders pick: KC (3/3)
The Chiefs have allowed a league-high 49 pass plays longer than 15 yards. The Bengals have allowed 39 of them, which is tied for the fourth-highest total.
"I will lean with K.C. on the basis of this being a shootout and expecting them to outscore Cincy, but I would not be surprised to see Cincy go to Arrowhead and get a win," one of the insiders said.
The Chiefs suffered their first defeat of the season at New England last week despite putting up 40 points. The Bengals scored 34 or more points in three of their first four games, but they needed defensive points to beat Miami in Week 5 and then suffered a dispiriting 28-21 defeat at Pittsburgh.
"K.C. has to limit plays down the field and then contain [Joe] Mixon, who is a dynamic back and probably under the radar as one of the top five backs in the league," one of the insiders said. "Cincy has great D-line depth -- their second line might start for some teams. A.J. Green is showing why he was a higher pick than Julio Jones. [Tyler] Boyd is doing a nice job. They are a formidable team, a playoff team that had a tough loss in a game they probably should have won last week."
ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Chiefs a 70 percent chance of winning, favoring them by about seven points. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has four interceptions over the Chiefs' past two games after throwing none previously, but he has a 74.6 Total QBR over that stretch regardless, and the Chiefs have scored 70 points in those games.
"I do believe Cincinnati will be able to score," the third insider said. "I just haven't seen anybody have enough to cover the Kansas City skill guys. Now, the Chiefs' defense is so bad and it will catch up to them. The one thing I like about the Kansas City quarterback is he don't care, he just wings it. The negative thing about him is, he don't care, he just wings it. You just don't know how long that is going to be sustained."