ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in select games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 4. This week's games: Dolphins-Patriots, Ravens-Steelers, Bengals-Falcons and Chiefs-Broncos.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Sunday: 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: NE by 7 | Insiders pick: NE (3/3)
All the insiders see the Patriots as more vulnerable than usual. But they weren't quite ready to pick against them at home, even though Miami has a 3-0 record and beat New England last season.
It's striking to see the Dolphins leading the NFL in touchdown receptions from the slot (five) while the Patriots struggle to get much going from that spot. Miami has completed 24 of 29 passes for 303 yards when targeting slot receivers. That includes 210 yards after the catch. New England has completed 18 of 29 for 202 yards (72 YAC) and three scores when targeting slot players.
"They really desperately need that slot player," an insider said. "They miss [Julian] Edelman, and then they drafted [Braxton] Berrios, who was often-injured and got injured. The troubling thing to me was just how badly Detroit dominated New England at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, when that was supposedly Detroit's weakness."
The Patriots are second to San Francisco in percentage of offensive snaps from 21 personnel (two running backs, one tight end), but opponents are increasingly using sub packages to defend that traditional base offense, making it tougher for New England to exploit mismatches when backs align as receivers.
One key to this game: Miami has started nine drives in opponents' territory, the second-highest total in the league behind Cleveland.
"New England has been historically great as far as not turning over the ball," another insider said, "so can Miami go toe-to-toe against Tom Brady without those extra possessions and short fields?"
Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Sunday: 1:00 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: ATL by 5 | Insiders pick: ATL (2/3)
The insider picking Cincy couldn't get past the Falcons' growing injury list, which now includes starters Andy Levitre, Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen on injured reserve.
"That secondary is gone, so if A.J. Green is OK, I like Cincy," this insider said.
Green's injured groin might or might not be OK. He did not finish the Bengals' 31-21 loss at Carolina in Week 3.
"I was amazed Carolina put up 30 on Cincy like that," another insider said. "It is really hard to go into Atlanta and win. I will pick Atlanta because I think they are a better team offensively, but this could turn into a track meet. The difference is going to be whether Cincinnati can get to Matt Ryan with a four-man rush. If they can, they can win the game."
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: PIT by 3.5 | Insiders pick: PIT (3/3)
This year's Ravens and the 2003 Chiefs are the only teams since at least 2001 to score touchdowns on all their red zone possessions through the first three games of the season. They have 12 touchdowns on those drives, five more than the 2003 Chiefs managed.
Yet when I asked one of the insiders to pick the winner, he took the Steelers because, in his words, he couldn't trust Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco. Never mind that the Steelers' Ben Roethlisberger has thrown twice as many interceptions (four) as Flacco has thrown through three games.
"That red zone production is definitely going to regress, but that tells you scheme-wise Baltimore is doing some things," another insider said. "You can pencil me in for picking the Steelers on this one, but Roethlisberger just has not looked that good on a consistent basis. He will make throws where only he can make that play, but there are others where you go, 'Why did he throw that?'"
The third insider said he thought Pittsburgh might "flip the switch" after beating Tampa Bay.
"It will be close, but I don't think Baltimore wins it," he said. "I'll take Pittsburgh at home, even though if anybody in the division is going to win there, it is Baltimore. They aren't afraid of anybody."
AFC North teams are 2-13 at Pittsburgh the previous five seasons, including 1-4 for Baltimore, 1-4 for Cincinnati and 0-5 for Cleveland.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
Monday: 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN | Point spread: KC by 4.5 | Insiders pick: KC (2/3)
The Chiefs are 4-0 against the Broncos since Peyton Manning took his final snap with Denver. They have won five straight in the series and have collected 17 turnovers in those games.
"I can't bet against K.C. right now," an insider said. "Plus, Denver's defense is not Denver's defense from the past. Their pass defense has not been great, and they are going against a team that passes the ball well and picked them apart even when Denver was good."
The Chiefs did "pick apart" Denver's pass defense during a victory late in the 2016 season. Otherwise, the Chiefs' passing stats were not particularly strong against Denver during the current win streak in the series. Of course, that was when Alex Smith was Kansas City's quarterback. Patrick Mahomes' 13 touchdown passes are more through three games than Smith ever had through six games in any season with the Chiefs.
"Denver has enough defense to pressure him [Mahomes], and they are fast enough to chase him down, too," another insider said. "I'll take Denver on the theory that the train has to slow at some point. They need some strip-sack fumbles with Mahomes holding it too long and swinging that ball around."
The third insider thought having Phillip Lindsay for a full game could give the Broncos a chance to beat Kansas City by following the blueprint Detroit used against New England. But with the Chiefs' offense playing so well, this insider still took Kansas City.
"I would not be surprised if Denver wins with a last-second field goal or something," he said. "That is just the way the NFL is."