Two events have altered the landscape since the Tampa Bay Buccaneers made the routine decision to exercise their 2019 contract option for quarterback Jameis Winston. The NFL's three-game suspension of Winston was one. Ryan Fitzpatrick's record-setting run of three consecutive 400-yard passing games during Winston's suspension is the other.
This one-two punch has shaken assumptions that Winston would return to the starting lineup following his suspension and then sign a long-term extension before, during or after playing the 2019 season on his fifth-year option salary of $20.9 million.
"It is not a situation where there is a clear-cut right thing to do," an exec from another team said. "It is a hard one -- a dilemma with a lot of variables."
Here we lay out a plan for the Bucs that addresses whether Winston should reclaim his starting job upon returning from suspension in Week 4, whether the team should bring back Winston on his $20.9 million salary for next season, and whether the team should enter into a long-term extension with him. Execs around the league are not unanimous in their suggestions, but one path forward makes more sense than the others.
Stick with Fitzpatrick for now
There's no need to rush Winston back into the lineup. The way Fitzpatrick has produced and the way his teammates have rallied around him makes sticking with Fitzpatrick as the starter the most logical decision in the short term. It doesn't rule out Winston playing in the future -- and perhaps soon, if Fitzpatrick throws interceptions the way he did Monday night before rallying the Buccaneers during their 30-27 defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
"No way do you change it out right now," an exec said. "Fitzpatrick is your starter, and you roll with it as long as Fitz allows."
What about those three first-half interceptions Monday night?
"If there is any time to sit Winston, it is now, to prove a point," another exec said Monday night. "The point is, 'You are not bigger than the team.' He put himself and everyone else in a bind. The team can show, 'Hey, we're not sitting around waiting for you. We have other options.'"
Winston would have to play exceptionally well to improve upon Fitzpatrick's early pace, which saw the 35-year-old become the only player in NFL history to reach 400 yards passing in three consecutive games. Before Monday night, Fitzpatrick became one of five players in NFL history to toss at least eight touchdown passes with fewer than two interceptions through the first two games of a season.
If and when the Bucs do go back to Winston, they will be risking an injury that could lock the team into paying his $20.9 million salary for 2019 before the team knows for sure whether it wants to make such a commitment (that salary is guaranteed only for injury until it becomes fully guaranteed March 13, the first day of the 2019 league year).
"I don't think Fitz keeps up this pace, but I don't think they go away from him until he completely melts down," another exec said. "Players like him, and the guy is playing with house money."
Fitzpatrick led the Bucs to victories over one team that reached the NFC Championship Game (New Orleans) and another that won the Super Bowl (Philadelphia) before nearly knocking off the Steelers. He has posted a 4-2 starting record over two seasons with the Buccaneers. Fitzpatrick has 14 touchdown passes, five interceptions, a 103.0 passer rating and 69.7 Total QBR in those six starts. Winston has a 3-10 record with 19 touchdowns, 11 picks, a 92.2 rating and 52.0 QBR over the same span.
Since Winston entered the NFL in 2015, he and Fitzpatrick have virtually the same completion percentages, touchdown-to-interception ratios, passer ratings and QBRs. The starting record for Fitzpatrick (17-16) is better than Winston's (18-27) for reasons beyond the QBs themselves (for example, Fitzpatrick's teams have been in the 60th percentile or better for defensive efficiency in 46 percent of his starts, compared to a 24 percent rate for Winston in his starts).
"You can't go with Jameis right now," an exec said Monday night. "You gotta stick with Fitzpatrick. He got you a couple wins. You let it ride out and see where it takes you."
This exec even left open the possibility that Fitzpatrick could hold onto the job all season.
"I really don't know if Winston gets his job back," he said before kickoff Monday night. "Fitz is so streaky. He might have a whole year where he does decently well. That is how he is. Then, at the end of the year, some team brings him in, pays him money and he falls off."
Force Winston to prove it -- twice
The pragmatic approach with Winston would be to keep him around in 2019 without committing to him unnecessarily.
"They need him to come through because Fitz is not the future," a general manager said. "I think they let him play out the fifth-year option. If he plays well, they can franchise him and then try to work out a deal to avoid a second tag. That way, they make him perform for two years and prove he is the guy long term. Now, if they fall apart this year, all bets are off. Winston will play elsewhere and they start over."
The $20.9 million option salary for 2019 is a reasonable number in the market.
That figure is lower than the $25 million annual average for the five quarterbacks on veteran contracts who ranked immediately ahead of Winston in my 2018 QB Tiers survey of 50 coaches and evaluators (low to high in the rankings, those quarterbacks are Eli Manning, Alex Smith, Kirk Cousins, Jimmy Garoppolo and Derek Carr).
The $20.9 million figure is higher than the $17.8 million average for the five quarterbacks on veteran deals who ranked immediately below Winston in the QB Tiers survey (high to low in the rankings, those quarterbacks are Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, Case Keenum, Tyrod Taylor and Blake Bortles).
When we average the APYs for those 10 quarterbacks surrounding Winston in the survey, the resulting number is $21.4 million -- right in line with the $20.9 million.
That $20.9 million figure would rank 14th in the NFL this season, about right for a quarterback who ranks 18th in QBR among the 32 quarterbacks with at least 24 starts since the start of 2015. Winston ranks in the top 10 among those QBs in air yards per attempt (first), first downs per attempt (third) and yards per attempt (10th). He ranks lower in sack rate (12th), adjusted completion rate (23rd), passer rating (24th) and interception rate (27th).
Winston is, statistically speaking, a roughly average starting quarterback. His No. 1 overall draft pedigree says he's more talented than most average starters, which is why it could be in the Buccaneers' best interests to stick with him as long as the price is right and there are no further incidents off the field. If it's true that Tampa Bay made strides this past offseason by improving the makeup of its locker room, the organization must determine how well Winston fits into the new dynamic.
"If you move on from Jameis and commit to Fitz, then the next thing you know, you don't have a quarterback," an exec said. "History has told you that every time somebody makes Fitz their guy, it goes the other way pretty soon."
Think long and hard before entering into a long-term deal
There are less pragmatic coaches and evaluators who think Tampa Bay should part ways with Winston after this season.
"Play out the year with Fitz, win nine games and then draft one," an offensive coach said. "Jameis hasn't proven to be mature, and you can't invest that kind of money in that kind of guy. He has already broken your heart. It's not like he's great when he plays."
There were already concerns about Winston's maturity and character before the NFL suspended him in June after determining that a female Uber driver who accused him of sexual assault was "consistent and credible" in her allegations.
"If he is doing what he is supposed to do in the building, but he has these off-field things, then that is Ben Roethlisberger's story," an exec said.
Roethlisberger served a six-game suspension in 2010 after a woman accused him of sexual assault.
Winston has similar or better numbers through three seasons than Roethlisberger had to the same point in his career. One big difference is that the Buccaneers have ranked 28th in points allowed since drafting Winston, whereas the Pittsburgh Steelers ranked fourth during Roethlisberger's first three years.
"I'm taking Jameis' character out of it, and you probably can't, but Jacksonville bit the bullet on Blake Bortles and it's kind of paying off," the exec who drew the Roethlisberger parallel said. "They have built the team, the culture got better in there, and it seems like he is starting to find himself and play better. So there is something to not changing, because when you change and bring in the rookie, everyone thinks it is going to be the next Carson Wentz and it's going to be great, but that is more the exception than the rule."
Winston's situation in context
It's helpful to consider Winston in relation to the 13 other quarterbacks who were drafted in the first round from 2011 to '15. That time period spans the start of the current labor agreement to the final draft class whose first-round picks have become eligible for extensions by having at least three years in the league.
Four of these 14 players received long-term extensions:
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers, No. 1 overall pick in 2011
Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts, No. 1 overall pick in 2012
Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins, No. 8 overall pick in 2012
Blake Bortles, Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 3 overall pick in 2014
Eight others did not receive long-term extensions (of this group, only Robert Griffin III had his fifth-year option exercised):
Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans, No. 8 overall pick in 2011
Blaine Gabbert, Jacksonville Jaguars, No. 10 overall pick in 2011
Christian Ponder, Minnesota Vikings, No. 12 overall pick in 2011
Griffin, Washington Redskins, No. 2 overall pick in 2012
Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns, No. 22 overall pick in 2012
EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills, No. 16 overall pick in 2013
Johnny Manziel, Cleveland Browns, No. 22 overall pick in 2014
Teddy Bridgewater, Minnesota Vikings, No. 32 overall pick in 2014
The remaining two players from these first-round quarterback draft classes fall into the to-be-determined category, although both did have their fifth-year options exercised:
Winston, Buccaneers, No. 1 overall pick in 2015
Marcus Mariota, Tennessee Titans, No. 2 overall pick in 2015
Of these 14, Luck and Newton were the only slam-dunk candidates for long-term extensions. Tannehill received a we-hope-he-is-the-guy deal after only three seasons. Bortles was re-signed to a deal that falls somewhere between a typical bridge deal and the top-of-market contracts others are getting. His fourth season and how he fit into a remade Jaguars roster were critical factors.
Winston trails only Luck and Newton among these 14 quarterbacks in Total QBR through the first three seasons of their careers. His suspension and Fitzpatrick's emergence complicate his future with Tampa Bay, but there is still time for the organization to gather facts and make a smart decision.