For Week 4, our panel of NFL Insiders pick over/unders on Mike Clay's stat projections for the four starting rookie quarterbacks -- Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen and Josh Rosen -- over the rest of the season. We asked Clay to create projections for each QB's passing yards, total touchdowns and interceptions in the 13 remaining games, then had our expects pick "over" or "under" on all of them.
Plus: Which rookie signal-caller is set up best for short-term success, and which is looking better in the long term.
Over/under rest-of-2018 for Baker Mayfield, Browns:
3,321 passing yards, 19 total touchdowns, 12 interceptions
Pat McManamon, Browns reporter: Under, under, under. Let's keep some perspective. DeShone Kizer started 15 games last season and threw for 2,894 yards; Tim Couch started 14 games as a rookie and threw for 2,447. Mayfield will get 13 starts with an offense that wants to run the ball. He was great against the Jets, and he might continue to be great, but topping 3,000 yards in 13 games with a team that wants to run the ball isn't realistic. The 19 touchdowns is close, but in the Browns' first three games they've thrown for three TDs and run for five. Mayfield might change that ratio, but the late-season weather in Cleveland will be in play, too. As for interceptions, one of his strengths is avoiding them (though he saw one dropped against the Jets). That trend should continue.
Domonique Foxworth, The Undefeated senior writer: Under, under, under. For Mayfield to hit those numbers, he would have to average 255 yards, 1.5 TDs and 0.9 INTs. That would be almost identical to the 2017 per-game averages for one of the highest-paid veteran quarterbacks in football, Kirk Cousins. At some point Mayfield will be better than Cousins, but I doubt the Browns will ask him to carry the offense. So his stats will suffer.
Mike Sando, senior NFL writer: Under, over, over. From 2008-17, only two rookie quarterbacks (Andrew Luck, Jameis Winston) have exceeded 3,039 yards passing after Week 3. A dozen other rookie first-round picks with at least 300 pass attempts after Week 3 averaged 2,671 yards over those weeks. The total TD projection is right on the dividing line between totals for mobile and non-mobile rookie first-round starters over the past decade. I'll take the over because I'm generally optimistic about Mayfield, but that is a high bar to clear (only Luck, Winston, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton exceeded that total as rookies since 2008). While I initially leaned toward the under on interceptions, Mayfield strikes me as the fearless type who could risk the ball without regret.
Kevin Seifert, NFL national writer: Under, over, under. I think we're due for a fun ride with Mayfield and a relatively talented offensive group. If I had to guess, the Browns will rely on their running game enough to depress Mayfield's raw yardage numbers, especially as the weather worsens in Cleveland. But his mobility and aggressiveness suggest he'll be involved in plenty of their touchdowns, and his accuracy gives him a chance to minimize interceptions.
Field Yates, NFL analyst: Over, under, under. Precision passing is going to be a catalyst for Mayfield, who has an intriguing group of receivers led by Jarvis Landry. While mistakes are inevitable for any rookie quarterback, I have the most confidence in Mayfield staying under that 13-interception threshold among any of these projections. He's so accurate with the ball.
Over/under rest-of-2018 for Sam Darnold, Jets:
3,185 passing yards, 16 total TDs, 15 INTs
Rich Cimini, Jets reporter: Under, over, over. The Jets will be competitive in most games, so I don't think Darnold will rack up a lot of concession yardage in blowouts. They also face some tough pass defenses. He'll surpass the TD total, in part, because of his mobility. He hasn't scored a rushing touchdown yet, but it's coming. He could easily score two or three. While Darnold shows promise as a passer, the interception issue will linger. He's an anticipation passer, and sometimes that gets him into trouble.
Foxworth: Over, over, over. Darnold has shown that he has big-game potential, but he is also turnover-prone. This season, he will have some 300-yard games with multiple touchdowns and some games with multiple interceptions. For the Jets' sake, I hope there are more of the former than the latter.
Sando: Under, under, under. The past 14 rookie first-round picks with 300-plus pass attempts after Week 3 had median production of 2,741 yards, 15 total touchdowns and 10.5 interceptions. It is possible Darnold will be a bit of an outlier, but I'm not sure that is likely.
Seifert: Over, under, over. The Jets are going to be in plenty of games that require an abandonment of balanced intentions. In other words, Darnold is going to throw a bunch and rack up yardage -- whether or not his team is winning. He has also displayed a rookie's tendency to throw wildly and take the kind of ill-advised chances that lead to interceptions.
Yates: Under, over, under. My feel on Darnold has not altered much through three weeks: He has some unique traits but will also endure struggles with the football in terms of turnovers. The Jets don't have a robust talent level at receiver, which gives me caution on his passing-yardage total.
Over/under rest-of-2018 for Josh Allen, Bills:
2,811 passing yards, 16 total TDs, 13 INTs
Mike Rodak, Bills reporter: Over, under, over. Allen managed 196 passing yards Sunday despite starting drives from an average of almost midfield in the first half and attempting only four second-half passes. Reaching the projected average of 216 yards per game over the remainder of 2018 seems attainable, especially as the Bills potentially open up the offense later in the season to see what Allen can do. Averaging more than a touchdown per game is a tough sell when Allen has thrown only two through almost 2½ games, while red zone targets Kelvin Benjamin and Charles Clay have been underwhelming. Allen's aggressive style of play will result in more interceptions than projected, as evidenced in his Week 2 start vs. the Chargers. This is no longer the Tyrod Taylor offense; Allen will take his chances and make mistakes in the process.
Foxworth: Over, under, over. Allen is a great athlete with a strong arm, but he is not a precise passer. Combine that with the fact that he doesn't have a great corps of pass-catchers, and you get less than 16 TDs and more than 13 interceptions. He could rack up some passing yards late in games because the Bills are sure to be trailing in the fourth quarter most weeks. So the 2,811 number is attainable.
Sando: Over, under, under. The projections for Allen are closer to the median production after Week 3 for recent rookie first-round quarterbacks. I'll take the over for yardage based on the assumption Buffalo will have to throw quite a bit. I'll go under on the touchdowns because only four of the past 14 qualifying first-round rookies (Luck, Winston, Newton, Griffin) beat that total over the past decade. History says I should take the under on the interception total, too, so I will, but I'm glad there isn't money riding on it.
Seifert: Over, over, over. The Bills looked great against the Vikings, largely because they kept their foot to the pedal with an aggressive, pass-first approach. Whether they keep with it, or if they are simply playing catch-up, the Bills will get Allen some big passing numbers. Like Mayfield, his mobility could add to his touchdown total. But his inconsistent accuracy will drive up the interception numbers.
Yates: Under, over, over. Week 3 was fun, huh? Allen showed a ton in his first road start. His weapons are limited, but he's perhaps the best equipped to pile up yards on non-designed runs when he needs to ad lib.
Over/under rest-of-2018 for Josh Rosen, Cardinals:
3,110 passing yards, 16 total TDs, 12 INTs
Josh Weinfuss, Cardinals reporter: Over, over, over. There's no doubt in my mind Rosen is ready to take over this offense, but that doesn't mean he's going to be perfect in it. I think his big arm will let the Cardinals do more in the passing game, which will lead to some unexpected touchdowns, but he's still a rookie and has had trouble when defenses disguise coverages, which will lead to the high interception numbers.
Foxworth: Over, under, under. In my view, Rosen was the most NFL-ready of all the rookie quarterbacks. So I expect him to look good in his first start. The Cardinals are a team that will be trailing quite a bit. That'll boost his yardage, but his lack of weapons will hurt his touchdowns.
Sando: Under, under, under. I'll take the unders because I think there is a good chance he will not hold up well enough physically. He looks like he needs to get stronger. If he does hold up, there's still a chance the team could go back to Sam Bradford at some point.
Seifert: Under, under, under. The Cardinals just don't have the firepower to support big passing numbers from a rookie quarterback. I do think Rosen will be careful enough to avoid 12 interceptions, though.
Yates: Under, under, under. Plain and simple, the Arizona offense looks as lethargic and uninspiring as any in the league this season, with or without Rosen.
Which rookie QB is most likely to win Offensive Rookie of the Year?
Clay: Mayfield. The Browns' offensive line started slowly, but this unit should be solid if it can get competent play at left tackle. Mayfield also has a solid group of assets in Landry, David Njoku, Duke Johnson Jr. and the emerging Antonio Callaway. Mayfield's outstanding efficiency at Oklahoma was why he was selected first overall in April's draft, and if last Thursday is any indication, it has carried over to the NFL. I also think Mayfield has the best team around him, including defense, which could help the Browns to the best record of the four teams in question.
Foxworth: Darnold. Despite losing to Mayfield and the Browns in their third game in 11 days, the Jets will have a better season than the Browns, Bills or Cardinals. Darnold will make a lot of mistakes this season, but he will also get a lot of credit for the Jets' improved record.
Sando: Mayfield. We've seen less from Mayfield than we've seen from some of the other rookie quarterbacks, which makes it tougher to see the ceiling. I'll bet on the unknown after seeing some of the other rookies flounder at times, though.
Seifert: Mayfield. Although he's in far from a perfect situation -- the Browns have allowed pressure on 38.2 percent of dropbacks, second highest in the NFL -- Mayfield has more going for him than other rookie quarterbacks. None has a receiver as reliable and productive as Landry, or a tight end as athletic and dynamic as Njoku. Plus, Mayfield's moxie will help him navigate unpredictable obstacles.
Yates: Mayfield. All are perhaps a long shot, as Saquon Barkley's sizzling start is likely to persist in New York and could well yield him this honor. But Mayfield has the best supporting cast in terms of pass-catchers available, plus a defense that will keep games competitive. Individual awards often tie into team success. If Cleveland wins 6-8 games, Mayfield will merit serious consideration.
Which rookie QB is in the best spot for long-term success?
Clay: Mayfield. Ex-general manager Sashi Brown set the Browns up with tons of salary-cap space and draft capital, which allowed them to vastly improve the roster during the 2018 offseason. Cleveland already has a solid defense in a place that includes emerging stars like Myles Garrett, Denzel Ward and Larry Ogunjobi. Combine that with Mayfield -- if he's the real deal -- and the Browns will quickly be back in the playoff mix on an annual basis.
Foxworth: Mayfield. Mayfield's skills and experience under Lincoln Riley at Oklahoma make him the best-equipped guy for the future of NFL quarterback play. We will see in the next few weeks if Todd Haley is the right offensive coordinator to help Mayfield flourish long-term.
Sando: Mason Rudolph, Steelers. Evaluators obviously think less of his talent, but sitting behind a veteran quarterback in Pittsburgh seems like a good situation for a rookie. The Steelers organization is so stable in fielding good teams.
Seifert: Mayfield. And for the same reasons he has the best chance to win Rookie of the Year. The hardest element to predict is whether he is in a stable coaching environment. General manager John Dorsey did not hire coach Hue Jackson, and sometimes that dynamic leads to replacement. One of the biggest career detours for young quarterbacks is early coaching instability.
Yates: Mayfield. I'll concede this answer is a dart throw, as the NFL is rapidly evolving and changing. This projection includes Mayfield's abundance of skills and leadership, experience he already has had (which, naturally, includes his storied college career), players around him and the ability to affect an offense in multiple ways (while a lethal thrower of the football, he also added 21 rushing touchdowns in college).