During the past decade, 109 teams have won 10 or more games during the regular season. Of those 109, 102 (or 93.6 percent) made the NFL playoffs.
For that reason, we decided to scan the entire league and draw up a recipe for how each team can get to 10 wins, and thus a probable playoff appearance. Of course, because roughly 11 teams per season will reach the 10-win mark, we also included a more realistic outlook for 2018. Teams are ordered by my projected win totals for each team this season.
Complaints that your favorite team is too low can be directed to biasedfan@madonline.com.
1. New England Patriots
How they can get to 10 wins: The last time the Patriots won fewer than 10 games was in 2002, and they went 11-5 the only season they missed the playoffs over the past 15 seasons. As long as Tom Brady is under center and Bill Belichick is calling the shots, New England won't have trouble hitting double digits for the 16th consecutive season.
Realistic expectations: New England will benefit from what is arguably the worst divisional competition it has faced during the Belichick/Brady era. The Jets, Bills and Dolphins are all bottom-10 -- if not bottom-five -- NFL teams. The unheralded but savvy additions of Danny Shelton, Adrian Clayborn and Jason McCourty will help solidify the defense and make New England the favorite for home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.
My projection: 12.4 | Vegas over/under: 11
2. Philadelphia Eagles
How they can get to 10 wins: The Eagles are absolutely loaded on paper again this season, so they shouldn't have much trouble reaching double digits as long as Carson Wentz (torn ACL) returns to his 2017 form. A step forward by the young cornerback group would go a long way toward the team repeating as NFC East champions.
Realistic expectations: The NFC is loaded with some of the league's best teams, which makes the path to the Super Bowl tougher than it has been in a long time. It also means the Eagles will face one of the league's hardest schedules. Injuries (Timmy Jernigan, Paul Worrilow) and off-the-field drama (Nigel Bradham's suspension and Michael Bennett's felony charge) also have popped up this offseason. Still, the Eagles are stacked with talent and depth at most positions, so they're a strong bet to overcome a few red flags.
My projection: 10.3 | Vegas over/under: 10.5
3. Los Angeles Rams
How they can get to 10 wins: If the Sean McVay-Jared Goff duo proves not to be a one-year wonder, the Rams will cruise to the playoffs again in 2018. Of course, even if the offense takes a step back, the new-look, Wade Phillips-led defense can make up for it -- and then some -- after the additions of Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib.
Realistic expectations: The Rams have Super Bowl aspirations after an aggressive and expensive offseason that also included a trade for Brandin Cooks. Aaron Donald's holdout, questions at linebacker and a quarterback situation that is a step behind many fellow top contenders means we can't quite call the Rams the favorites for the NFC crown.
My projection: 10.2 | Vegas over/under: 10
4. New Orleans Saints
How they can get to 10 wins: Despite the presence of superstar Drew Brees, the Saints have fallen short of eight wins four of the past six seasons. That changed in 2017, thanks primarily to an upgraded defense. New Orleans has the talent to eclipse 10 wins if their 39-year-old quarterback has another year of elite play in the tank and the defense gets competent play from offseason additions Marcus Davenport, Demario Davis, Patrick Robinson and Kurt Coleman.
Realistic expectations: The strength of the NFC is the Saints' biggest roadblock to success. Facing Atlanta, Carolina and an underrated Tampa Bay team two times each, in addition to conference games against Philadelphia, Los Angeles and Minnesota, eats up nine of the team's 16 games. That's going to make winning a ton of games tough, but this team is talented enough that 10-plus wins is a strong bet.
My projection: 10.1 | Vegas over/under: 9.5
5. Minnesota Vikings
How they can get to 10 wins: The pressure is on Kirk Cousins after he signed a fully guaranteed $84 million contract during the offseason. If Cousins brings his A-game and a very shaky offensive line proves competent, the Vikings' offense will take another step forward. There's little reason to be worried about a defense that has all of its top players back and added Sheldon Richardson and first-rounder Mike Hughes.
Realistic expectations: Aaron Rodgers is healthy, which means the Vikings will need to fend off the Packers for the NFC North crown in 2018. The schedule is also a little tougher for Minnesota than it is for Green Bay thanks to the Vikings' 2017 division title. Still, this team is loaded on paper, and Cousins has proved competent enough that the Vikings are legit contenders for a Super Bowl LIII appearance.
My projection: 9.6 | Vegas over/under: 10
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
How they can get to 10 wins: The Steelers have won at least 10 games each of the past four seasons. They're a good bet to make it five with Ben Roethlisberger leading arguably the league's most-talented group of offensive starters. A leap forward from recent early-round draft picks T.J. Watt, Bud Dupree, Artie Burns, Sean Davis and Terrell Edmunds would all but lock in another AFC North title.
Realistic expectations: The Steelers' loaded offense coupled with a weak AFC positions them as a very good bet for a playoff berth and potentially another first-round bye. However, it's fair to be concerned about a Ryan Shazier-less defense with significant question marks or straight-up weak spots at every level aside from defensive tackle.
My projection: 9.4 | Vegas over/under: 10.5
7. Green Bay Packers
How they can get to 10 wins: The Packers have won 10-plus games each of the past seven seasons in which Aaron Rodgers has appeared in 15-plus games. During the two he hasn't, they failed to eclipse eight wins. Rodgers is arguably the best player in the NFL, so if he's on the field, the Packers are a strong bet for double-digit wins.
Realistic expectations: Ten wins is realistic with Rodgers under center, but Green Bay's defense remains a work in progress and figures to cost them a chance at a Super Bowl appearance and perhaps even a playoff berth. Muhammad Wilkerson was a strong addition, but Jake Ryan is out for the season. A lot will depend on whether a revamped cornerback group can overcome the curse of Casey Hayward.
My projection: 9.3 | Vegas over/under: 10
8. Atlanta Falcons
How they can get to 10 wins: After scoring 58 offensive touchdowns during their explosive 2016 campaign, the Falcons fell to 33 scores in 2017. Although they didn't make it quite as far in the playoffs, their win total only fell from 11 to 10. Atlanta had a relatively quiet offseason for a reason -- the roster has very few holes. The Falcons can clear double-digit wins if the offense bounces back in OC Steve Sarkisian's second season.
Realistic expectations: The defending division champion Saints only got better during the offseason, so while an NFC South title is certainly attainable, the Falcons' most likely path to a third straight playoff appearance is the wild card. Matt Ryan is one of the best in the business and is leading a loaded offense. The only potential red flag is a shaky/unproven defensive line, but this is certainly a playoff team on paper.
My projection: 9.1 | Vegas over/under: 9.5
9. Los Angeles Chargers
How they can get to 10 wins: Believe it or not, the Chargers haven't won 10 games in a season since 2009, although they have hit nine wins four times since, including in 2017. The path to getting over the hump will depend a lot on an offensive line that has struggled in recent years but is ticketed for a step forward with Forrest Lamp and Mike Pouncey in the mix. A solid year from newcomer Caleb Sturgis also would move the needle after last year's kicking disaster.
Realistic expectations: Season-ending injuries to Hunter Henry and Jason Verrett already have eliminated two of the team's top talents, but the Chargers are strong enough from top to bottom that they still should be considered the favorite in the AFC West. The defense was already very good in 2017 (allowed only two more touchdowns than the Jaguars), and a healthy Denzel Perryman and first-round pick Derwin James make it even better.
My projection: 9.0 | Vegas over/under: 9.5
10. Jacksonville Jaguars
How they can get to 10 wins: The Jaguars predictably took a big step forward last season after building an elite defensive unit. Of course, their 10-6 record marked the first time the franchise hit double-digit wins since 2007. A repeat is certainly possible with all of last year's top defenders still rostered and after the addition of elite free-agent guard Andrew Norwell.
Realistic expectations: The Jaguars were super lucky in the injury department last year, so it will be interesting to see if they can overcome some regression to the mean in that area. Although the defense remains stacked, the question mark at quarterback remains. Blake Bortles was better last season, but he still barely cleared a 60 percent completion rate and tossed 13 interceptions. His presence makes it hard to project a leap forward for this team, despite all its strengths.
My projection: 9.0 | Vegas over/under: 9
11. Tennessee Titans
How they can get to 10 wins: The Titans haven't hit the 10-win mark since 2008, but nine-win seasons in 2016 and 2017 coupled with another strong offseason put them in position to compete for a division title. A big leap forward from the Marcus Mariota-Corey Davis battery under new OC Matt LaFleur will be the biggest difference-maker, but significant contributions from defensive newcomers Malcolm Butler, Kenny Vaccaro and first-round pick Rashaan Evans could be what pushes this team over the top.
Realistic expectations: It's hard to project a major leap for an offense led by a quarterback who threw more interceptions than touchdowns last season and an OC who has never called plays. That said, it's hard to argue with the talent on this roster. The backfield duo (Derrick Henry, Dion Lewis) and offensive line rank among the league's best, and the defense is solid or better on every level. The Titans are very much positioned for a run at the AFC South title.
My projection: 8.9 | Vegas over/under: 8
12. Houston Texans
How they can get to 10 wins: Deshaun Watson tore up the league while healthy last season, and although he's a lock for some regression to the mean, Houston's path to 10 wins will primarily depend on his health, playmaking, mistake avoidance and ability to overcome a suspect offensive line. The Texans' defense is loaded with star power, but strong play from youngsters Zach Cunningham and Kevin Johnson, as well as newcomers Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieu, can push this unit back into the elite.
Realistic expectations: The elephant in the room is that Houston's offensive line is arguably the league's worst on paper. Plain and simple, it's going to be hard to keep Watson upright and get the most out of the running game (especially considering Lamar Miller's efficiency woes). The defense has elite upside, but how much will they get from J.J. Watt after he has missed all but eight games over the past two seasons? The South isn't a cakewalk anymore, and Houston's red flags figure to prove costly.
My projection: 8.1 | Vegas over/under: 8.5
13. Kansas City Chiefs
How they can get to 10 wins: In a word: Mahomes. The Chiefs made the bold decision to trade Alex Smith, who was fresh off the best season of his career, and hand the torch to their 2017 first-round pick. If Patrick Mahomes makes Andy Reid look like a genius, the Chiefs' offense could be even more productive, especially after the signing of Sammy Watkins. Productive campaigns from key defensive additions Breeland Speaks, Anthony Hitchens, Kendall Fuller and David Amerson also will be necessary.
Realistic expectations: The Chiefs won at least nine games during all five of Smith's seasons with the team, including 10-plus during four of those seasons, but figure to have trouble getting there in 2018. The importance of turnover margin can't be overstated, and going from Smith to Mahomes, combined with the team's extremely shaky secondary, is problematic. The defense has a few stars but is clearly top-heavy on paper. Kansas City does have the benefit of a weak AFC, which keeps them in the playoff conversation.
My projection: 7.9 | Vegas over/under: 8.5
14. Detroit Lions
How they can get to 10 wins: The Lions have managed two 10-plus win seasons since 1996, although they've reached nine wins each of the past two seasons. An offense led by Matthew Stafford and one of the game's top lines should be more than serviceable, leaving this team's path to the playoffs on the shoulders of the defense. The Lions can hit the 10-win mark if youngsters Jarrad Davis, Teez Tabor, A'Shawn Robinson and Anthony Zettel take a big step forward in 2018.
Realistic expectations: It's simply hard to get behind a team that is good on one side of the ball and extremely shaky on the other. Relative to the rest of the league, Detroit is without much defensive star power -- Darius Slay, Glover Quin and Ziggy Ansah are the best players -- leaving new head coach Matt Patricia with a lot on his shoulders. He may be able to get this unit to average, but that's probably its ceiling in 2018, barring major breakthroughs from multiple players.
My projection: 7.9 | Vegas over/under: 7.5
15. San Francisco 49ers
How they can get to 10 wins: The 49ers haven't won more than eight games in a season since 2013, but expectations are the highest they've been since the Jim Harbaugh era after Jimmy Garoppolo won all five of his starts down the stretch last season. The 49ers can compete with the Rams for the NFC West crown if Garoppolo proves to be the real deal and their young, talented defense enjoys a breakout campaign.
Realistic expectations: The sky is the limit for this team. The combination of DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Arik Armstead, Reuben Foster, Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon and Jaquiski Tartt has massive upside on defense, and Garoppolo has looked good enough that the offense shouldn't struggle to find the end zone. There is a lot of talent here, but also a lot of risk. The 49ers are probably a year away from a playoff spot in a loaded NFC.
My projection: 7.8 | Vegas over/under: 8.5
16. Cleveland Browns
How they can get to 10 wins: The Browns have combined for four wins over the past three seasons, so a 10-win campaign may seem impossible. It's not. This team is way better than you probably realize on paper, especially after the offseason additions of Tyrod Taylor, Carlos Hyde, Jarvis Landry, Chris Hubbard, Mychal Kendricks, Denzel Ward, T.J. Carrie, E.J. Gaines and Damarious Randall. Yeah, that's a lot of impactful players. If Taylor protects the ball as he did so well in Buffalo and the defense takes a step forward, Cleveland can shock the world.
Realistic expectations: The Browns are on the upswing but are still likely another good offseason away from make a serious playoff run. Then again, I said that about Jacksonville last season. The fact is, the AFC is extremely top-heavy, which leaves the conference's wild cards available for the taking. Cleveland has the roster talent to push for seven or eight wins and sneak into the tournament.
My projection: 7.7 | Vegas over/under: 5.5
17. Baltimore Ravens
How they can get to 10 wins: Last season, we saw Alex Smith post a career year at age 33 after the team traded up and selected Patrick Mahomes in the first round of the draft. This season, the Ravens will hoping for something similar from 33-year-old Joe Flacco after they traded up for Lamar Jackson. Baltimore's defense is still in terrific shape, so if Flacco connects well with a revamped group of pass-catchers led by Michael Crabtree, Baltimore can get back to 10 wins for the first time since 2014.
Realistic expectations: Even if Flacco improves, it's hard to imagine a huge leap for a player who posted the ninth-worst yards per attempt (5.72) of the past decade last season and who has 52 touchdowns and 40 interceptions over the past four seasons. Still, the offense figures to, once again, be bailed out by a defense that is strong up front and has one of the league's best secondaries.
My projection: 7.6 | Vegas over/under: 8
18. Seattle Seahawks
How they can get to 10 wins: Seattle may be going back to a run-heavy offense, but never has Russell Wilson had so much on his shoulders. The Seahawks won nine games last season, which ended a streak of five straight 10-plus win campaigns. Wilson will need his A-game and a step forward from the team's weak offensive line in order to keep the offense afloat. Defensively, Bobby Wagner, K.J. Wright, Frank Clark and (hopefully) Earl Thomas will need to carry the load.
Realistic expectations: Lost in the offseason were Michael Bennett, Richard Sherman, Kam Chancellor, Sheldon Richardson, Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham. Thomas is looking like a long shot to return as well, which means Seattle has lost a devastating amount of talent. Wilson and Wagner are superstars who can help keep this team in the mix for eight wins, but it's more likely Seattle will be drafting in the top 10 than competing in the playoffs.
My projection: 7.6 | Vegas over/under: 8
19. Dallas Cowboys
How they can get to 10 wins: A full season of Dak Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and an intact offensive line that's still one of the league's best should keep Dallas in the mix for 10 wins. This is a team that won 13 games in 2016 before falling to 9-7 last season. DeMarcus Lawrence and Sean Lee provide the defense with star power, and this could be a strong unit if recent early-round picks Taco Charlton, Jaylon Smith, Leighton Vander Esch and Chidobe Awuzie step up.
Realistic expectations: After the departure of Jason Witten and Dez Bryant and David Irving's four-game suspension, Dallas has holes and/or depth concerns at multiple positions, including wide receiver, tight end, defensive tackle and defensive back. It's going to be tough to keep up with much better and deeper teams in the NFC.
My projection: 7.5 | Vegas over/under: 8.5
20. Oakland Raiders
How they can get to 10 wins: Jon Gruden's new-look Raiders have taken a lot of criticism for some head-scratching moves, but they've also done a nice job filling some defensive holes that have hurt this team for years. They include adding Tahir Whitehead and Derrick Johnson at linebacker, Maurice Hurst at defensive tackle and Rashaan Melvin at corner. The Raiders still have one of the league's better offensive lines, so if Gruden can get Derek Carr headed the right direction, the Raiders can post only their second 10-plus win season since 2002.
Realistic expectations: Oakland may have made some solid defensive moves, but the offense will be relying heavily on a quarterback who has underachieved, two "older" running backs (Doug Martin, Marshawn Lynch) and three wide receivers coming off poor 2017 seasons (Amari Cooper, Jordy Nelson, Martavis Bryant). The odd decision to lean on the running game just makes it even harder to bet on this team making the playoffs.
My projection: 7.5 | Vegas over/under: 8
21. Carolina Panthers
How they can get to 10 wins: Since Ron Rivera and Cam Newton arrived in 2011, the Panthers have failed to reach .500 four times, but they have won 11-plus games the other three seasons. Carolina can hit that mark again if Newton doesn't show any sign of a slowdown at age 29. The defense is very top-heavy and will need another great season from anchors Kawann Short and Luke Kuechly and will need a revamped secondary to exceed low expectations.
Realistic expectations: Carolina went 11-5 in 2017, but stud guard Andrew Norwell is gone and the defensive is overloaded with weak spots, especially in the secondary. The team will be asking a lot of 37-year-old Mike Adams, 38-year-old Julius Peppers and 35-year-old Thomas Davis (who is suspended for four games), and there's minimal help coming in the form of recent early-round picks. The Panthers are a strong bet to take a step back in a stacked NFC.
My projection: 7.4 | Vegas over/under: 9
22. Indianapolis Colts
How they can get to 10 wins: The Colts have gone 11-5 three times during the Andrew Luck era but haven't eclipsed eight wins since 2014. Luck's health has been the primary culprit, but if he's a full go for Week 1, he has the talent to get the Colts back into the playoff mix. This team has loaded up on early-round picks (Quenton Nelson, Tarell Basham, Kemoko Turay, Tyquan Lewis, Darius Leonard, Quincy Wilson and Malik Hooker) the past few seasons, and a breakthrough season for the group would go a long way.
Realistic expectations: As determining win totals go, Luck is certainly one of the most influential players in the league, but the major holes on this roster can't be overlooked. Indianapolis will enter 2018 with one of the league's shakiest (if not straight-up worst) situations at running back, wide receiver, offensive line, linebacker and defensive back. The Colts are a good bet to improve on last season's 4-12 record, but a playoff berth is a long shot.
My projection: 7.4 | Vegas over/under: 6.5
23. Chicago Bears
How they can get to 10 wins: The Bears are hoping to be the 2018 version of last season's Rams -- the team that hires a young, offense-minded head coach and teams him up with a second-year, first-round quarterback en route to a major leap forward in the standings. Major progression from Mitchell Trubisky will be key, but productive campaigns from offseason additions Allen Robinson, Trey Burton, James Daniels, Aaron Lynch and first-round pick Roquan Smith can get this franchise back to double-digit wins for the first time since 2012.
Realistic expectations: The Bears may want to re-create what the Rams did last season, but let's be honest, that's a best-case scenario. Trubisky still has to prove he belongs in the NFL, and he'll have his work cut out keeping up with Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford. The Bears are actually a decent team on paper, especially on defense, so there's hope. But with so much competition in the NFC, they're probably at least one year away.
My projection: 7.3 | Vegas over/under: 6.5
24. Denver Broncos
How they can get to 10 wins: Denver has won 14 games in two seasons since Peyton Manning's retirement, but the playoffs are back on the minds of Broncos fans after the Case Keenum signing. If Keenum plays as well as he did last season when he led Minnesota to the NFC Championship Game, the Denver offense will be significantly better. Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. provide the defense with a pair of superstars, and impactful seasons from the likes of Justin Simmons, Bradley Roby, Derek Wolfe and first-round pick Bradley Chubb can get this team back to 10 wins.
Realistic expectations: Keenum "broke out" at age 29 last season, but it's risky to assume he'll be as good on a roster without as much talent as he benefited from in Minnesota. The Denver defense isn't quite as loaded as it has been in year's past. The loss of Aqib Talib can't be overstated and leaves the team with depth concerns at corner, as well as question marks at linebacker and safety. Denver needs a lot to go right in order to snag a playoff berth.
My projection: 7.2 | Vegas over/under: 7
25. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
How they can get to 10 wins: The Buccaneers actually have one of the league's better teams on paper. Vita Vea, Mitch Unrein, Beau Allen, Jason Pierre-Paul and Vinny Curry were all added to an outstanding front seven that also includes Gerald McCoy, Kwon Alexander and Lavonte David. The offensive line is solid and, led by Mike Evans, Tampa Bay has one of the league's deepest and most talented pass-catching groups. Add that to another step forward from Jameis Winston and Tampa Bay hits 10 wins for the first time since 2010.
Realistic expectations: The Buccaneers' sleeper appeal took a hard hit when Winston was handed a three-game suspension. It's going to be very difficult for this team to avoid a slow start with the Saints, Eagles and Steelers on tap while Winston is out. And that's a slow start they can't afford in a competitive NFC South. The secondary is also in rough shape, which will make it tough to slow the likes of Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.
My projection: 7.2 | Vegas over/under: 6.5
26. Washington Redskins
How they can get to 10 wins: There are few things more important to an NFL team's win total than turnover margin, and this is an area in which Washington could dominate in 2018. The Redskins ranked ninth in interceptions last season and brought in Alex Smith, who hasn't thrown more than eight picks in a season since 2010. Washington has the talent to hit the 10-win mark for only the fourth time since 1992. The health of Jordan Reed and the emergence of high-pedigree prospects Josh Doctson, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Ryan Anderson can get them where they need to be.
Realistic expectations: If I've said it once, I've said it like 15 times: The NFC is loaded, so even mid-pack teams with upside will be hard-pressed to hang in the playoff race in 2018. The Redskins are solid and/or have a good prospect in place at most positions -- and are thus one of my favorite sleeper teams -- but they still fall short of the conference's top teams overall.
My projection: 6.8 | Vegas over/under: 7
27. Cincinnati Bengals
How they can get to 10 wins: The past two seasons have been a disappointment, but the Bengals hit the 10-win mark during each of the previous four seasons. Reliance on strong defense was key during that stretch, and that side of the ball is still in good shape thank to standouts Geno Atkins, Carlos Dunlap, Vontaze Burfict and William Jackson III. A 10-win season will bank on an offensive leap, which is possible if talented youngsters John Ross, Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon take a step forward and Tyler Eifert stays on the field.
Realistic expectations: There are certainly things to like about the Bengals, but a shaky quarterback situation coupled with one of the league's worst offensive lines -- even after the Cordy Glenn and Billy Price additions -- is likely to do them in this season. Burfict's four-game suspension is just another roadblock to overtaking the Steelers in the AFC North.
My projection: 6.7 | Vegas over/under: 6.5
28. New York Giants
How they can get to 10 wins: Believe it or not, the Giants have fallen short of 10 wins six of the past seven seasons. The path to getting there in 2018 will lean heavily on the team's core group of stars, including Saquon Barkley, Odell Beckham Jr., Damon Harrison, Janoris Jenkins, Olivier Vernon and Landon Collins. If Eli Manning can take advantage of his improved weapons and the defense returns to its 2017 form, the Giants will be back in the playoff discussion.
Realistic expectations: Manning is now 37 years old and has struggled badly in recent seasons. I mentioned the star power on the roster, but there are glaring weak spots behind those players, especially at linebacker, in the secondary and on the offensive line. The Giants don't stack up well with the division-favorite Eagles and are arguably worse on paper than the Redskins and Cowboys.
My projection: 6.6 | Vegas over/under: 7
29. Miami Dolphins
How they can get to 10 wins: Ryan Tannehill must be terrific in his return to action after last season's torn ACL. DeVante Parker and Kenyan Drake will need to take their games to another level with more on their shoulders this season. Recent early-round defensive additions Raekwon McMillan, Jerome Baker, Charles Harris, Xavien Howard and Minkah Fitzpatrick will need to make a significant impact to keep the defense afloat.
Realistic expectations: Coach Adam Gase is preaching culture, and it has led to a shipping off of talent in the form of Ndamukong Suh, Mike Pouncey, Jarvis Landry and Jay Ajayi. With the likely exception of edge rusher and safety, the Dolphins have question marks or straight-up voids at nearly every position. That's going to make it very hard to keep up with the league's well-stocked teams. Miami will need to beat up on the weak division rival Jets and Bills in hopes of sneaking into a wild card.
My projection: 5.8 | Vegas over/under: 6.5
30. Buffalo Bills
How they can get to 10 wins: One of Josh Allen or AJ McCarron emerges and is, at least, serviceable at quarterback. LeSean McCoy is on the field and isn't showing rust at age 30. Corey Coleman and/or Zay Jones rebound after rough starts to their careers. An offensive line that lost Eric Wood and Richie Incognito holds down the fort. Twenty-year-old rookie Tremaine Edmunds makes an immediate impact, and veteran additions Star Lotulelei, Trent Murphy and Vontae Davis enjoy bounce-back seasons.
Realistic expectations: I know, I know. The Bills won nine games and made the playoffs last season. But they also scored 57 fewer points than they allowed and got much worse on paper during the offseason (at least in the short term). Even in a weak AFC, the Bills have to overcome too many roster holes, especially on offense, in order to get in the playoff discussion.
My projection: 5.7 | Vegas over/under: 6
31. Arizona Cardinals
How they can get to 10 wins: David Johnson scored 20 touchdowns in 2016, and if he's back to form after last season's wrist injury, the Cardinals' offense will make a big push forward. The offense also will need competent quarterback play from Sam Bradford or Josh Rosen and another year of production from 35-year-old Larry Fitzgerald. Chandler Jones and Patrick Peterson will need to hold down the fort defensively, and the unit will need breakout campaigns from youngsters Budda Baker, Haasan Reddick, Robert Nkemdiche and Markus Golden.
Realistic expectations: The Cardinals have a few stars in the form of Johnson, Fitzgerald, Peterson and Jones, but there are significant problem areas across the starting 22. Quarterback is obviously a gigantic question mark, wide receiver and tight end lack firepower, and the offensive line is average at best. Aside of a strong safety trio, the defense has major concerns at every level.
My projection: 5.6 | Vegas over/under: 6
32. New York Jets
How they can get to 10 wins: Josh McCown played well last season and another strong (and healthy) campaign from the 39-year-old would be key. The Jets also will need Robby Anderson on the field and making big plays like he did in 2018. The offensive line and edge rushers will need to overachieve. Key defensive offseason additions Henry Anderson, Avery Williamson and Trumaine Johnson will need strong seasons, as will unproven youngsters Darron Lee, Jamal Adams and Marcus Maye.
Realistic expectations: The Jets outperformed the expectations of most last season and that still led to only a 5-11 record. They filled some holes with a few solid offseason acquisitions, but they also lost Demario Davis, Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Kony Ealy and Muhammad Wilkerson. This roster has holes at nearly every position on both sides of the ball (the interior defensive line being the obvious exception). The Jets still face an uphill battle on their path to the playoffs.
My projection: 5.4 | Vegas over/under: 6