We're six days away from the official start of NFL free agency, and we're four days away from the start of the "legal tampering period." Meanwhile, all eyes were on Indianapolis for the NFL combine last week, and fans are excited to see where their favorite teams go in the draft in April.
What is the biggest need for each of the 32 NFL franchises? Football Outsiders looks here at the biggest hole on each team's roster as of the beginning of March.
Pieces might refer to Football Outsiders' DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) metric, which takes every play during the season and compares it to a baseline adjusted for situation and opponent. It is explained further here. Sports Info Solutions' charting metrics referenced below are available via subscription at FootballOutsiders.com.
Read through every team, or skip ahead to the division of your choice:
AFC East | AFC North| AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
AFC East
Buffalo Bills: Front seven
Buffalo finished 31st in run defense DVOA last season. They finished 28th in adjusted sack rate, and, per Sports Info Solutions charting, 31st in pressure rate. The defensive line is watching stalwart Kyle Williams become a free agent, and the Bills have received almost no return so far from their first-round investment in Shaq Lawson. Besides Jerry Hughes, this unit is completely barren.
At linebacker, scrap-heap find Lorenzo Alexander was second on the team in hurries, at 22.5. He's turning 35. Preston Brown is a free agent with average-at-best tape. If I put the rest of Buffalo's linebackers in a list with Madden franchise-mode, AI-created draft prospects, only true fans would know the difference.
Then, of course, there's the fact that Buffalo actually has a few weaknesses. They seem hell-bent on getting rid of Tyrod Taylor, Eric Wood's sudden (yet delayed for salary-cap purposes) retirement leaves them with a hole on the interior line, and their wide receivers are still bad. Things could be going better in Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins: Guard and off-ball linebacker
With the return of quarterback Ryan Tannehill, Miami's big issue shifts to the line protecting him, as per usual. After moving Laremy Tunsil to left tackle, Miami could provide only a heaping helping of replacement-level guys who have been kicking around for a while at guard. Jermon Bushrod was probably the best of them, and he wasn't much. Panthers guard Andrew Norwell is the best of the lot in free agency, but the Dolphins don't figure to have much money to spend, as they are one of two teams already over the cap.
Bafflingly committed to Kiko Alonso, the Dolphins were shredded by tight ends last season, allowing a 17.2 percent DVOA to the position that ranked 28th in the league. All Alonso did of note last year was look lost in coverage and ring Joe Flacco's bell on "Thursday Night Football." Lawrence Timmons and Koa Misi are also fairly replaceable at this stage of their careers. The Dolphins will be hoping that second-round 2017 pick Raekwon McMillan can rehab from a torn ACL to fix these problems.
New England Patriots: Front seven
With the expected returns of Derek Rivers (ACL tear) and Dont'a Hightower (torn pectoral), the Patriots have some upside but also some instability up front. Players such as Elandon Roberts and Kyle Van Noy have been inconsistent, and after dealing away Jamie Collins and Chandler Jones, lack of talent was a major reason the Patriots cratered to 31st in defensive DVOA.
The Patriots don't have the means to completely fix this in one offseason because the problem isn't depth -- it's a lack of top-line talent. Elite front-seven talent just doesn't hit free agency often. DeMarcus Lawrence and Ezekiel Ansah have been franchised. The best New England could hope for in these areas are older players on the James Harrison path (Julius Peppers?) or a nice, solid player with some limitations, such as Trent Murphy or Avery Williamson.
The decision to move on from Alan Branch and Martellus Bennett gives them a little more wiggle room under the salary cap. We'll see how they use it.
New York Jets: Quarterback
I figured out why the Jets want to give Kirk Cousins an offer he can't refuse: They don't have a good option at quarterback. Josh McCown is a free agent and can't make it through a full season as a starter anyway. Bryce Petty has proved to be fungible, and Christian Hackenberg ... well, the less said about him, the better.
The Jets enter the offseason with a full war chest of cap space and the sixth overall draft pick in a class that has as many as four franchise-capable quarterbacks, depending on whom you believe in. Even if the answer is not Cousins -- maybe Sam Bradford and a first-round pick battling it out -- the Jets must address the quarterback position in order for the notion of them in the playoffs to become less laughable.
-- Rivers McCown
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens: Wide receiver
The Ravens were 26th in passing offense DVOA, at minus-4.8 percent, and while the offense improved late in the year as Joe Flacco recovered from knee and back injuries, the lack of quality targets hindered the team all season. The team's leading wideout in DYAR (47th overall) was Mike Wallace, who is a free agent. Breshad Perriman is looking like a bust, and Jeremy Maclin might need to redo his contract to stick around.
It remains to be seen whether the Perriman fiasco scares the Ravens off from selecting a wide receiver in the first round. Regardless, the more probable move is one that has worked out in the past with the likes of Steve Smith Sr. and Anquan Boldin -- snagging cap cuts and offering a Baltimore baptism. Dez Bryant and Randall Cobb leap to mind as strong possibilities for this role, with the likes of Mohamed Sanu a dark horse. The draft doesn't offer many top-flight receivers, but there are plenty of midround options the Ravens could target, including LSU's D.J. Chark and Indiana's Simmie Cobbs Jr.
Cincinnati Bengals: Offensive line
Not much mystery here. While the numbers suggest a line more mediocre than putrid (24th in adjusted line yards, 20th in adjusted sack rate), there's little doubt that the lack of consistent play up front has hamstrung the offense for two years running. Cedric Ogbuehi has been mostly a bust. Jake Fisher's future is in doubt given the irregular heartbeat that ended his season. Only Clint Boling can be counted on as a quality starter headed into 2018.
Certainly, the team will address the line in the draft, and more than once, even if the Bengals don't go lineman with their top choice (No. 12). Coach Marvin Lewis indicated that his return was in part predicated on a new willingness to pursue free agents, though splashing out for the likes of Andrew Norwell remains highly unlikely. Baltimore center Ryan Jensen is a possibility, though other, less expensive AFC Northers such as James Hurst and Chris Hubbard would be more Bengals-esque additions. Fans hope the most important addition is new offensive line coach Frank Pollack, in from Dallas to replace longtime coach Paul Alexander.
Cleveland Browns: Quarterback
As ever. DeShone Kizer was who we thought he was -- an athletic, big-armed specimen with the accuracy of an Imperial Stormtrooper trying to blast an above-the-title member of the Rebel Alliance. The newly hired non-nerds in the Browns' front office will go back to the well to find a starter and perhaps a different backup, too, given their antipathy toward just about everything Sashi Brown & Co. did, personnel-wise (they sure love all those draft picks and cap space, though!).
Whoever winds up as Browns signal-caller, be it a free agent or top draftee (you know the names; guessing who the team will draft/sign at this point is just that -- guessing), will have a sturdy line and a decent group of playmakers to work with, one that surely will be improved in the draft and free agency. The Browns could well add, as a hypothetical, Saquon Barkley, Jarvis Landry, Tyler Eifert, Terrelle Pryor Sr., Derrius Guice and Christian Kirk and still be in a position to draft a quarterback with the first pick and sign a bridge free-agent veteran, all while addressing the defense as well. The team can't help but improve, but it still all starts with the choice for the next quarterback(s).
Pittsburgh Steelers: Safety
Ryan Shazier's injury was not only scary but also crippling to the Pittsburgh defense. Before he went out against Cincinnati in Week 13, Pittsburgh sported the fourth-best defense in the league (13.7 percent DVOA). Without the unit's best player, the Steelers fell to ninth (6.4 percent DVOA), then surrendered 45 points at home to Blake Bortles in the playoffs.
But with Vince Williams, T.J. Watt and enigmatic but toolsy Bud Dupree around, Pittsburgh still has quality linebackers to work with. At safety, however, the outlook is more problematic. Mike Mitchell is a likely cap casualty, while Sean Davis was inconsistent in Year 2.
Kenny Vaccaro and Eric Reid have worrying injury histories, but they are intriguing options for a rebirth with new scenery. The Steelers also will attack the position in the draft, most likely on Day 2. Terrell Edmunds, Tremaine's less heralded brother, had a strong career at Virginia Tech and could be in play, as could a local product, Jordan Whitehead of Pitt.
-- Robert Weintraub
AFC South
Houston Texans: Offensive line
This has been mentioned already, but the Texans are in a rather odd place this offseason. One year ago, they made the divisional round of the playoffs despite essentially being quarterbacked by a lamppost in shoulder pads. They found a franchise quarterback in the draft, forgot they had done so until the second half of Week 1 and promptly finished 4-12 after said quarterback blew out his knee in October. Two of the three best players in their defensive front seven lost almost the entirety of the season to injury, the only 16-game starter in their secondary is a free agent, and they are on their third defensive coordinator in three seasons. A year ago, they looked like they were only a quarterback away. Now the Texans are secure at that position (provided Deshaun Watson's recovery goes OK), but they're putting out fires all over the roster.
The most devastating of those blazes is the one that has annihilated the offensive line. Since the end of the 2015 season, the Texans have lost Duane Brown, Ben Jones, Brandon Brooks and Derek Newton to trades, free agency or injury. Only Brown ever made a Pro Bowl in Houston, but all four were solid players, and with them in place, the Texans' line was once considered the strength of the team. Last year's line was the team's clear and obvious weakness, and with three of last year's starters headed for free agency, every spot except center is likely to be occupied by a different player next season.
There are two major obstacles to a rebuild: the lack of viable free agents, leading to fierce competition for the few who come available, and the team's lack of draft capital stemming from last offseason's quarterback shuffling. Cleveland owns both of Houston's top two draft picks, putting top tackle prospects such as Mike McGlinchey and Brian O'Neill well out of the Texans' reach. The Texans might be able to trade into the second round if a prospect they like is available, but given the breadth of the problem, they might be better off putting as many picks as possible on the roster with a few veteran additions and waiting to see how things shake out.
Indianapolis Colts: Pass defense
The Colts' offense has a few pieces in place, but the defense is full of holes. The run defense was solid enough last year, ranking 10th in DVOA, and the switch back to a 4-3 base should suit interior linemen Al Woods and Johnathan Hankins just fine. What they need now are upgrades to last season's 32nd-ranked DVOA pass defense. Unfortunately, that means literally the entire pass defense: pass rush, cover linebackers and defensive backs.
It helps that the staff knows what it wants to achieve. New defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus already has discussed in some detail his intention to return the Colts to a Tampa 2 base, meaning primarily zone coverages, simplified gap responsibilities and an emphasis on speed over size. Outside linebackers John Simon and Jabaal Sheard will transition to defensive end, while returning safety Malik Hooker should excel as a ball-hawking deep safety tasked with keeping routes in front of him and breaking on the ball.
Everything else is a question mark. The only cornerback to start 10 games for the Colts last season, Rashaan Melvin, is a free agent. Previous top corner Vontae Davis was cut in acrimonious circumstances in November and has since joined the Bills. Early offseason rumors had Clayton Geathers moving to weak-side linebacker, but general manager Chris Ballard has said that Geathers is staying at safety. The team desperately needs cover linebackers and cornerbacks, might need another safety depending who works out next to Hooker and probably needs at least one true 4-3 defensive end added to the rotation with Sheard and Simon. It is not quite the mess of last offseason, when the team switched out almost the entire starting lineup, but the front office has a lot of work to do this year to bring the defense up to the necessary standard.
Jacksonville Jaguars: Quarterback
Just over a week ago, Blake Bortles Joe Flacco'ed his way into a contract extension for the Jaguars after a season in which he was just mediocre enough for the team to make the AFC Championship Game despite him. Big contracts on defense have the Jaguars up close and personal with the salary cap, and re-signing free-agent-to-be Allen Robinson is an expensive offseason priority. This probably factored into the extension: While $54 million over three years is a lot of money for a mediocre starter, the extension lowers Bortles' $19.5 million cap hit in 2018 from his fully guaranteed fifth-year option. The Jaguars have a deep and talented defense, a solid offensive line, talented backs and an apparent knack for finding and developing young receivers. Quarterback is their one glaring weakness: With a better passer, they are likely preseason favorites to win the AFC.
With so much money tied up elsewhere, the options available to actually get a better quarterback are limited. Most of the obvious upgrades in free agency will be too expensive for Jacksonville to squeeze under the cap. Backup Chad Henne is a free agent, so the team is likely to take a quarterback at some point in the 2018 draft. Whether they do so on Day 1, as we suggested in our Bold Moves column or wait until later in the draft will provide some clue to the level of confidence the team has in Bortles for next season and beyond.
Tennessee Titans: Guard, edge rusher
The Titans are quite an awkward team to assess -- they're a marginal playoff squad with a basic level of competence at most positions but very few actual strengths. The offensive line, particularly at tackle, is the strongest unit on the roster, while the loss of Eric Decker and Harry Douglas probably leaves receiver the weakest. Even there, the Titans believe they will have two starting-caliber receivers with some development from second-year professional Corey Davis alongside veteran Rishard Matthews. As always, tight end Delanie Walker will make a big contribution as a pass target, and Taywan Taylor at least offers a credible deep threat. Mike Mularkey was roundly criticized for much of his two seasons as the Titans head coach, but his one definite contribution was to help fashion a solid roster with few glaring problem areas.
That said, age and free agency could open two such holes quite quickly. Right guard Josh Kline is an unrestricted free agent. He's the sort of solid but unspectacular guard who would not typically be expensive to retain but might be a target for other teams competing in a very limited market. Left guard Quinton Spain is a restricted free agent, giving the Titans at least the option to match any contract offer made to him. The loss of either player would open an obvious hole on the roster, but neither is so important that the Titans could not find an adequate replacement.
On defense, the outside pass rush came last year from veterans Derrick Morgan and Brian Orakpo. Morgan is 29, and Orakpo will be 32 on opening day. Both players are still performing well -- they combined for 30 starts and 14.5 sacks -- but backup Erik Walden is a 33-year-old free agent, and the team has basically nobody else at that position. Regardless of what happens with Walden, the Titans are widely expected to add at least one edge rusher in April's draft.
-- Andrew Potter
AFC West
Denver Broncos: Quarterback
Over the past two seasons, Trevor Siemian has proved to be fantastic value as a seventh-round pick. Very few late-round quarterbacks are able to prove themselves as decent quarterbacks, much less earn starting jobs for two seasons. However, Siemian is more fit to be a backup or spot starter than the player on whom Denver places its future.
The quarterback on whom Denver did try to place its future, Paxton Lynch, appears to have been a poor investment. Lynch has started just five games in two years since he was a first-round selection in 2016. Heading into both seasons, Lynch was given every opportunity to supplant Siemian as the starting quarterback but hardly came close either time. Lynch is a long shot to develop into what Denver hoped he could be when it drafted him.
Brock Osweiler and Chad Kelly round out Denver's quarterback depth chart from last season. Osweiler started four games for the Broncos in 2017, but he signed only a one-year deal and seems unlikely to be brought back. Kelly was the last pick in the 2017 NFL draft, and he likely will not remain on the active roster if Denver brings in a quarterback via free agency.
Kansas City Chiefs: Inside linebacker
Time is undefeated. After 12 fantastic seasons, Derrick Johnson finally hit a wall in 2017. Johnson lost the speed and suddenness that made his strength so imposing. Tracking sideline to sideline became difficult for Johnson, and he lost his steam as a downhill force in the run game. When Johnson became an unrestricted free agent this offseason, Kansas City made the easy decision to move on.
Assuming none of the team's free agents are re-signed, Reggie Ragland would start alongside Terrance Smith or Ukeme Eligwe in 2018. A late addition last offseason, Ragland proved to be a decent fit in Kansas City, but he is not an impact player. Ragland provides a baseline level of play in the run game while falling flat as a three-down player. Worse yet, Smith and Eligwe are unproven players who could not find snaps in an already bad linebacker group in 2017.
Kevin Pierre-Louis is the team's only pending free-agent linebacker. Pierre-Louis began his career as a strong-side linebacker with Seattle, playing more of an edge-setting role than a true off-ball linebacker position. In his transition to Kansas City's defense, Pierre-Louis did not show signs of being anything more than a functional depth player. Kansas City might benefit from keeping Pierre-Louis, but he is not the answer at inside linebacker.
Los Angeles Chargers: Off-ball linebacker
The Chargers rostered one definitively good off-ball linebacker last season: Denzel Perryman. Unfortunately, an ankle injury kept Perryman off the field for the first half of the season, leaving the team to lean on a slew of Band-Aids to stay afloat until his return. Jatavis Brown and Hayes Pullard ended the season with the most linebacker snaps on the team, yet neither was on the field even half the time, and neither proved to be particularly valuable when on the field.
By season's end, the Chargers even began opting for dime personnel over nickel, subbing out one of their linebackers for a sixth defensive back. Outside of Perryman, the unit could not be trusted in any capacity.
Since 2014, Perryman is the only off-ball linebacker the team has selected within the first three rounds of the draft. The Chargers have not signed a major free agent at the position in that time either. If the Chargers want to fix their mess, they need to throw legitimate resources at the position.
Oakland Raiders: Cornerback
Poor pass defense has plagued the Raiders the past couple of years. The Raiders ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA in 2016, only to get progressively worse by finishing 30th in 2017. Relying on gambles in free agency has not worked out quite the way they had envisioned. Likewise, drafting a first-round cornerback in 2017 (Gareon Conley) did not immediately fix anything. Oakland's cornerback unit needs to be stripped down and rebuilt.
David Amerson already has been cut, and he signed with the Chiefs. If Oakland is sensible, it will allow TJ Carrie to walk as an unrestricted free agent. Finally, Sean Smith, who flopped as a major free-agency signing in 2016, has an option in his contract that allows Oakland to cut him without penalty. That option ought to be exercised.
With Paul Guenther now in the fold as defensive coordinator, it would be wise to stock the cupboard with cornerbacks via free agency and the draft. Guenther came over from Cincinnati, where cornerback talent and depth were never an issue. Investing in cornerback also will allow Khalil Mack to wreak more havoc and help Oakland re-establish a defensive identity.
-- Derrik Klassen
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: Secondary -- as usual
We have identified safety or cornerback as Dallas' biggest need in 2012, 2013 (twice), 2014, 2015 and 2017. We also included the secondary in questioning Dallas' "entire defense" in 2014.
The Cowboys' constant failure to find quality players in their defensive backfield is getting ridiculous. Three Dallas cornerbacks -- Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis and Orlando Scandrick -- qualified for Sports Info Solutions' charting tables due to usage in 2017, but none made the top 40 in success rate. The Cowboys were 21st in coverage against No. 1 wide receivers and 23rd against No. 2s. At safety, Jeff Heath was a nonfactor in his first season as a full-time starter, with more missed tackles (11) than defeats (six).
Byron Jones was in the top 10 among safeties with 20 defeats, so you'd think there would be at least one secondary spot nailed down for Dallas headed into 2018. However, by the end of the season, the Cowboys were regularly pulling Jones off the field for about 25 percent or more of the team's defensive snaps. ESPN's Todd Archer reported that the Cowboys might move Jones back to corner, where he played as a rookie in 2015. That would close one hole for Dallas but open another.
It's not that Dallas hasn't tried to find defensive backs. Since 2012, the Cowboys have drafted more than a dozen safeties and corners. Only three of those players, though, are likely to be NFL starters in 2018. Jones is one, and Lewis is another; Morris Claiborne, now with the Jets, is the third. The Cowboys also guaranteed $4 million to Nolan Carroll in free agency last year. Carroll rewarded them by starting all of two games before being cut in mid-October. For whatever reason, the Cowboys regime has completely failed to scout, acquire and develop talent in the defensive backfield for the better part of a decade.
New York Giants: Offensive line
Usually, when a team finishes 30th in both adjusted sack rate and pressure rate, we would say the pass rush is its biggest need. However, Jason Pierre-Paul and Olivier Vernon have a combined cap hit of $34.5 million in 2018. Barring an Osweiler-to-Cleveland type of trade in which the Giants give up a draft pick just to escape a contract, neither player is going anywhere. New York simply will have to hope new defensive coordinator James Bettcher can coax better production out of them than his predecessor, Steve Spagnuolo, did.
New York's offensive line was quite a mess in 2017. Ten linemen started at least one game for the Giants, and only three (John Jerry, Ereck Flowers and Brett Jones) started more than eight. The Giants gave up 34 sacks, which is less than most teams but a lot for a team with Eli Manning at quarterback. Manning's quick release makes him very hard to bring down, but he was sacked 31 times last season, the second-highest total in his career, despite missing a start for the first time since 2004. Manning has taken five-plus sacks in a game only 10 times; two of those came last season against the Chargers and Lions. Now the line could be in for a major overhaul, as three starters (Justin Pugh, Weston Richburg and D.J. Fluker) are about to enter free agency.
The trade for Alec Ogletree cost the Giants fourth- and sixth-round draft picks this year, leaving them with only five total picks in April. Notre Dame guard Quenton Nelson, one of the top overall prospects on the board, will be there for the taking at No. 2 should New York pass on the option to grab a franchise passer and choose to ride with Manning until his arm falls off. Regardless, it's imperative that New York comes out of the draft with at least one offensive lineman ready to start in Week 1 in 2018.
Philadelphia Eagles: Linebacker
It's odd, but most recent Super Bowl champions have barely had time to hoist the Lombardi trophy before they had to fix major problems on their roster the following season. The 2013 Seahawks won the Super Bowl but then had to get to work repairing the offensive line. The Patriots were desperate for cornerbacks a year later. Peyton Manning went and retired for the Broncos, and then the Patriots once again needed defensive help, this time at pass-rusher.
These Eagles, though? This is an awfully solid roster. If anything, they should be more talented come Week 1 than they were in the Super Bowl. They're likely to lose only two starters in free agency, one on offense (running back LeGarrette Blount) and one on defense (linebacker Nigel Bradham). They'll get Carson Wentz and Jason Peters back from injury. Plus they'll add whatever talent they can find in free agency and the draft after trading for Michael Bennett this week. It's pretty hard to find any cracks in the armor here.
That said, it's at linebacker where the Eagles should be most concerned. Bradham's departure would leave Mychal Kendricks as the only returning man at the position who played more than 300 defensive snaps last season. Backups Dannell Ellerbe and Najee Goode are also free agents, so the entire depth chart here could be in for a complete overhaul. The Eagles are hoping that a player such as Alabama's Rashaan Evans or Virginia Tech's Tremaine Edmunds falls to them at the end of the first round. Or they could look to improve at left guard or add depth at running back.
The Eagles are in a quite enviable position here of taking the best player who falls to them -- and even then there might be a better option. Philadelphia has no second- or third-round pick this year due to trades for Wentz and Ronald Darby. No doubt the Eagles will be eager to trade out of the first round and fill what might be their biggest need: draft picks.
Washington Redskins: Defensive line
Washington was a team of extreme strengths and weaknesses along the defensive front. The Redskins had the best pressure rate in the league, according to Sports Info Solutions. That's a credit to the edge rushers, primarily Ryan Kerrigan (37.0 pressures), Preston Smith (31.0) and Junior Galette (25.0). However, they were dead last in adjusted line yards allowed. The blame for that can be laid at the feet of Stacy McGee, Ziggy Hood and Matthew Ioannidis.
When evaluating 3-4 defensive linemen, it's less about how many plays they make and more about where they make them. Washington's defensive linemen made their plays way too far downfield last season, consistently getting blown off the line of scrimmage. Only 19 defensive linemen in the league made at least 15 run tackles last year and allowed an average gain on those tackles of 3.0 yards or more, and Washington had two of them, in Hood and Ioannidis. Hood's stop rate of 52 percent on run tackles was worst among any starting defensive lineman; Ioannidis was sixth-worst at 58 percent. McGee's average run tackle rate wasn't much better, coming 2.5 yards past the line of scrimmage, though his stop rate of 70 percent was clearly the best of the bunch.
Jonathan Allen, the 17th overall pick in last year's draft, played only five games as a rookie due to a foot injury. If he can get healthy and play up to his draft position, that would go a long way in making Washington a better football team. So would an infusion of youth. Washington has the 13th pick in this year's draft and might get to choose from among (the University of) Washington's Vita Vea, Alabama's Da'Ron Payne or Florida's Taven Bryan.
-- Vince Verhei
NFC North
Chicago Bears: Pass-catchers
Rookie head coach Matt Nagy has his work cut out for him. Sure, he has a possible franchise quarterback in Mitchell Trubisky to groom, but what kind of toys will he have for the youngster to play with? In Kansas City, Nagy had an outstanding trio of weapons in Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill. In Chicago, there isn't enough Elmer's Glue to keep Kevin White in one piece. Markus Wheaton wasn't any fun in Pittsburgh, and he's not going to get better in Chicago. Cameron Meredith flashed some potential in 2016, but he is coming off an ACL tear and is a restricted free agent. Kendall Wright and Dontrelle Inman are impending free agents, and neither is a true WR1 or WR2 at this point. Even Josh Bellamy, who was third on the team with 46 targets, is a restricted free agent, and tight end Zach Miller is a free agent after he almost lost his leg due to a dislocated knee.
With all of those problems, you can see why this was the most conservative passing offense in the league last season -- built heavily on failed completions to running backs Tarik Cohen and Jordan Howard. For that reason, any receiver coveted in the draft or free agency can be linked to Chicago. Whether it's a slot receiver or a pass-catching tight end or a speed demon or a jump-ball winner, the Bears should find plenty of upgrades over anyone they currently have or had last season. If that means signing Green Bay rival Randall Cobb should he become available, then so be it. Trubisky is going to need some reasons to throw the ball beyond the line of scrimmage.
Detroit Lions: Running back
This one is tricky because Detroit has done a lot of recent work to build a roster around quarterback Matthew Stafford. He has a very good trio of wide receivers in Golden Tate, Marvin Jones Jr. and Kenny Golladay. The offensive line added T.J. Lang and Ricky Wagner last season and hopes to get a full season out of left tackle Taylor Decker again. You could go with tight end as a weakness, but Eric Ebron is under contract for one more season (his fifth-year option was picked up). Defensively, there's either a recent first- or second-round pick or established player at each level.
We end up going back to the familiar story of the Lions not being able to find a quality running back ever since Barry Sanders retired. Ameer Abdullah stayed healthy enough in 2017 (14 games), but he ranked dead last in rushing success rate (35 percent) for a run game that brought up the league's rear in rushing yards and yards per carry. Some of that has to fall on the offensive line that ranked last in adjusted line yards, too. According to ESPN Stats & Info, the Lions ranked 29th in yards before first contact per rush (1.97). Even after breaking tackles, the Lions ranked 30th in yards after first contact per rush (1.40). Theo Riddick is solid as a receiving back, but the Lions could still use that workhorse, do-everything back who can be a reliable part of this offense.
Green Bay Packers: Edge rusher
You can argue that the Packers are still lacking in the cornerback department, despite numerous premium draft picks in recent years, or that the tight ends have underwhelmed for years now. Martellus Bennett, in particular, was a big disappointment last season. Those are still needs, but what about a consistent pass-rushing force off the edge? Clay Matthews has hit 8.0 sacks only once in the past five years, and he'll be 32 in May. Nick Perry had a career season in 2016, but the Packers didn't have any defender rank in the top 50 in pass pressures in 2017.
Because this is Green Bay, the draft is the expected option to get better at this position. Mike Pettine is taking over for Dom Capers at defensive coordinator, so Green Bay should be fielding another aggressive 3-4 defense. The outside linebackers tend to shine in that scheme, but the Packers could have their work cut out for them in a draft pool that doesn't appear to be overflowing with talented edge rushers.
Minnesota Vikings: Guard
The Vikings have a very good roster, so we almost went with kicker, as Kai Forbath is a free agent who has missed eight extra points in two seasons with the team. Then we almost went with quarterback because this is one of the most unique situations in NFL history, with three viable Week 1 starters all ready to hit free agency after being on the roster in 2017: Sam Bradford, Teddy Bridgewater and Case Keenum. But there's no shortage of options there, and the Vikings are likely to re-sign one of them (or free agent Kirk Cousins) before a hole actually opens up.
So we finally get back to the offensive line, which was the major problem a year ago, but the team helped solve a lot of that issue by adding Riley Reiff and Mike Remmers at tackle and drafting center Pat Elflein. Still, right guard Joe Berger is a free agent and could retire, leaving an opening in the starting lineup. A right guard won't make or break your team's season, but it is Minnesota's biggest weakness, which is a testament to the strong roster the Vikings have assembled.
-- Scott Kacsmar
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: Defensive tackle
The Falcons don't have too many holes to fill this offseason, but an infusion of youth and athleticism along the defensive line would be a welcome addition for a defense that has made strides every season under coach Dan Quinn. Grady Jarrett and Takkarist McKinley look like superstars in the making, while Vic Beasley still can be a productive player as he moves back to defensive end. However, with the potential losses of Dontari Poe, Courtney Upshaw and Adrian Clayborn (who occasionally kicked inside on passing downs), they'll need to add some young blood on the interior through the draft and free agency. Having a young trio of Jarrett, Beasley and McKinley is a major plus for the Falcons, but they'll need to keep establishing depth along the defensive line if they want to go on another postseason run.
Atlanta ranked 28th in defensive success rate on short-yardage runs, which speaks to their need to get a bit more talented at the line of scrimmage. Veterans such as Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson will be names to watch for the Falcons.
Carolina Panthers: Wide receiver
It feels like this has become a yearly offseason talking point, but the Panthers desperately need to find more weapons at receiver for Cam Newton. By the end of the season, Kaelin Clay and Brenton Bersin were receiving starter reps. This is partially due to the injury of Curtis Samuel, but he wasn't exactly lighting up defenses while he was healthy. Devin Funchess was the only Panthers receiver to register enough targets (minimum 50) to qualify for our wide receiver DVOA tables, in which he ranked 33rd among 86 qualifying players. Within Carolina's division, the Falcons (Julio Jones, Mohamed Sanu) and the Saints (Michael Thomas, Ted Ginn Jr.) each had two receivers finish higher in DVOA than Funchess.
If the Panthers hope to maximize what Newton has to offer, they'll need to do whatever it takes to give him the receiver talent that he needs.
New Orleans Saints: Defensive line
New Orleans was poised to have one of the more intriguing defensive tackle duos in the league after Sheldon Rankins and Nick Fairley picked up steam in the back half of the 2016 season. Unfortunately, a heart condition forced Fairley to miss all of 2017, and as Rankins developed, his play didn't become as consistent as the Saints would have hoped. Rankins still has the potential to grow into an upper-echelon defensive tackle, but he needs a potential running mate for the future after Fairley was cut early in February.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Defensive tackle
Besides Gerald McCoy, the Buccaneers don't have any playmakers along the defensive line. They already have cut ties with free-agent bust Chris Baker, leaving the unit razor-thin. Their lack of defensive line talent was a major reason they finished the season 32nd in defensive DVOA. Tampa Bay ranked dead last in total sacks and adjusted sack rate. They also were the worst defense in the league when it came to runs coming off the side of the left tackle.
Luckily, Tampa Bay has $71 million in cap space, according to Over The Cap. A reunion with former Tampa first-round pick Adrian Clayborn would make sense, as would spending the seventh overall pick in this year's draft on a defensive lineman.
-- Charles McDonald
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals: Quarterback
Carson Palmer has called it quits after 15 seasons, which means the Cardinals have no quarterbacks under contract. Unless new head coach Steve Wilks wants to experiment with a David Johnson-based single wing attack, Arizona is going to need to add multiple quarterbacks this offseason.
The Cardinals will have to decide if they're looking for a veteran quarterback to build around or simply a bridge while they develop a long-term quarterback of the future. With the return of Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald on offense and the fourth-best defense by DVOA, there's certainly an argument for plugging in a veteran and trying to compete. They have only $22.2 million of cap space, though, which makes them heavy underdogs in the Kirk Cousins sweepstakes. That might make someone such as AJ McCarron, Josh McCown or "whichever quarterback Minnesota doesn't re-sign" a solid option for a couple of years while they develop someone with more potential.
The Cardinals were too good for their own good in 2017. They're stuck with the 15th selection in the draft; all the top quarterbacks likely will go off the board long before they get to pick. That means they're likely going to have to settle for the next tier down of college prospects -- Washington State's Luke Falk or Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph, perhaps -- to groom someone for the long term.
Los Angeles Rams: Edge rusher
For all the praise the Rams' defense received in 2017, that unit found itself struggling, at times, to pressure opposing quarterbacks. Its pressure rate of 31.2 percent was firmly in the middle of the pack -- and that can be attributed mainly to Aaron Donald. Donald had 52 pass pressures on the season, but no one else on the team hit 20.
Robert Quinn used to be one of the top edge rushers in the game, but he hasn't hit double-digit sacks since 2014. Blame it on the lingering effects of injuries that ended both his 2015 and 2016 seasons or the shift to a 3-4 outside linebacker in Wade Phillips' scheme, but Quinn hasn't been the consistent terror he once was. It looked like the Rams were hanging on to Quinn when they declined to include him in the Marcus Peters trade, but shortly thereafter, they dealt him to the Dolphins for a middle-round draft pick.
Connor Barwin is a pending free agent and is aging into a more situational player -- he's still a solid support piece, but he doesn't shed blockers like he did in his 20s. No one else on the roster keeps opposing offensive tackles up at night.
There isn't exactly a bumper crop of free-agent pass-rushers on the market this year, so keeping Barwin on a short-term, cheap deal might make sense. The Rams then could pair him with a first-round pick such as LSU's Arden Key or a middle-tier free agent such as Aaron Lynch. Let's be honest: The Rams' biggest need is, by a wide margin, the least crucial need in the division. We're talking about shoring up a team that finished fifth in adjusted sack rate last season, after all. Adding more pop to the pass rush could take a frightening defense and make it absolutely unstoppable.
San Francisco 49ers: Interior offensive line
The 49ers have plenty of issues to address if they want to be competitive in 2018. Their starting cornerbacks finished in the bottom seven in success rate among qualified players. They ranked just 22nd in defensive pressure rate and could use some more talent at edge rusher. They could use a true No. 1 receiver to open up the offense. But if you've just spent more money than anyone in history on a quarterback, your top priority has to be keeping him upright, so we'll focus on the offensive line. The 49ers allowed 43 sacks and 116 quarterback hits in 2017, and though Jimmy Garoppolo did a better job avoiding pressure than Brian Hoyer or C.J. Beathard, those numbers have to go down.
The 49ers gave center Daniel Kilgore a three-year extension, which is a head-scratcher. Kilgore is, at best, serviceable, and has a difficult time dealing with complicated stunts or pressures up the middle. He's good for at least one baffling blown block a game and really should be a swing backup as opposed to the starter at center. At guard, former first-round pick Joshua Garnett missed all of 2017 with a knee injury and wasn't winning a camp battle with Brandon Fusco before he went down. Fusco's a free agent who struggled at times when right tackle Trenton Brown was out, though he was far from the weak link on the line. That would be left guard Laken Tomlinson, whose lack of mobility made him both a bad fit for the 49ers' outside zone scheme and an easy target for interior pass-rushers. All three spots could stand to be upgraded.
The 49ers still have the fifth-most cap room in the league, even after the Garoppolo deal, so they'll be attached to every free-agent lineman available. Andrew Norwell, Justin Pugh and Josh Sitton sit atop their wish list. Alternatively, they could hope Notre Dame's Quenton Nelson falls to them in the draft; on paper, he's a great fit for the system, though it's unlikely he'll be there for him at No. 9.
Seattle Seahawks: Offensive line -- as usual
We have now highlighted offensive line as the Seahawks' biggest weakness in every offseason stretching back to 2014. We'll probably be here saying the same things in 2019. The Seahawks, on a very basic philosophical level, do not invest in the offensive line position.
The Seahawks ranked 31st in pressure rate, forcing Russell Wilson to dodge defenders on 36.7 percent of offensive plays in 2017. They ranked 26th in adjusted sack rate and 31st in adjusted line yards. For the fifth straight season, they gave up more than 40 sacks. Their 121 QB hits allowed were third-most in the league. All of this is with Wilson, who might well be the best quarterback in the league at avoiding pressure, so if anything, the raw numbers are flattering Seattle's line. The Seahawks did finally move on from Tom Cable, which has to help -- the Seahawks gave up an even 300 sacks in Cable's six-year run as offensive line coach. Perhaps now the Seahawks will try to draft offensive linemen to play offensive line, rather than hoping converted tight ends, defensive ends or basketball players can protect their MVP-caliber signal-caller.
The Seahawks need to add multiple players to their line this offseason. Acquiring Duane Brown during the 2017 campaign to shore up the left tackle position was a great start. They need to repeat that on the right side, where Germain Ifedi led the league in penalties and is terrible in space. They might be able to get more value out of Ifedi by moving him back inside to his original guard position, though he was terrible there as a rookie in 2016. None of Luke Joeckel, Oday Aboushi or Ethan Pocic was at all acceptable inside in 2017, though Pocic might improve if the Seahawks pick a position for him and stick with it. No matter what, an immediate talent infusion is needed.
-- Bryan Knowles