It's not often that respectable starting quarterbacks make it to NFL free agency.
It's especially rare when it happens without extenuating circumstances. Drew Brees bolted from the Chargers after the team used a first-round pick on Philip Rivers. The entire NFL was concerned with the state of Brees' throwing shoulder at the time; it was the reason the Dolphins avoided signing him. When Peyton Manning hit free agency, it was because he had missed a whole season following neck surgery, and the Colts were able to use the No. 1 overall pick on Andrew Luck.
Cousins isn't as good as Brees and Manning were at their peaks, but he is able to say that he's hitting the open market injury-free. Cousins is one year removed from a season with a healthy Jordan Reed, DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon in which he finished fifth in Football Outsiders' passing DVOA and sixth in Total QBR. While he had more mediocre numbers last season -- 18th in DVOA, 15th in QBR -- it's not hard to argue that Cousins is one of the top 15 quarterbacks in the league. He's certainly in the top 20.
Washington moved on by acquiring Alex Smith for a third-round pick and cornerback Kendall Fuller. With Jimmy Garoppolo's new contract setting the bar high, you'll forgive Cousins' agent, Mike McCartney, for being gleeful about the concept of his free agency.
As of this past weekend, we learned that Cousins is down to a final four, but there are two teams that need him more than anyone else.
The two teams that need him most
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have nobody on the roster who should stand in the way of a new quarterback. Trevor Siemian was a nice scrap-heap solution but got skittish last season, and John Elway's 2016 first-round pick, Paxton Lynch, has shown nothing to counter the idea that he's already flamed out. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders were terrific as recently as 2016, and while the secondary receiving options aren't as appealing, that's a good start for Cousins. He'd need to overcome some pressure from a leaky Denver offensive line, but that hasn't been a demonstrated problem for Cousins in the past.
The Broncos finished 31st in offensive DVOA in 2017, sabotaging the entire team despite a good performance from the defense. The Broncos were a historically great defense in 2015 and 2016. They declined but still finished in the top 10 in DVOA in 2017, and they could be due for a bounce-back season in 2018 depending on the moves this offseason.
The Broncos don't actually have much cap space, entering the offseason with $26.8 million according to OverTheCap.com, but they could get creative with salaries. The Broncos still want to compete for a title before the core of their defense gets too old, and Cousins gives them the easy path. They've already been flirting with the idea of trading pricey cornerback Aqib Talib.
Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals have an entirely new coaching staff under GM Steve Keim after Bruce Arians' retirement. Steve Wilks brought in Mike McCoy to oversee the offense, so nobody is married to the previous administration's quarterbacks. The biggest deal of all, though, is Larry Fitzgerald's non-retirement. The Hall of Fame receiver waffled about playing in 2018, which is unsurprising given the promise of several sailed Blaine Gabbert passes, but now that he's coming back, he's on the recruiting trail. While McCoy was run out of Denver, Cousins would be the best non-Philip Rivers quarterback McCoy has worked with.
Arizona is picking low enough in the draft that it's not likely to find a franchise guy in the first round, and it has a good enough defense that an improvement on its 30th-ranked DVOA offense from 2017 could spur a playoff run. David Johnson will come back healthy in 2018, and they won't be losing any important parts of their defensive core to free agency.
Cousins would give the Cardinals an opportunity to stay relevant in a beastly looking NFC West and keep Fitzgerald happy. Arizona, like Denver, probably would have to make some cap moves to make this happen. It can shift around some money on players such as Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson, or perhaps re-sign Deone Bucannon at a lower cap hit in 2018. But this fit makes too much sense to be ignored.
The other finalists
Minnesota Vikings
The Vikings employed three quarterbacks who might start somewhere next year in Sam Bradford, Case Keenum and Teddy Bridgewater. Minnesota is reportedly Cousins' preferred destination, and for good reason -- the offense was productive last year and the Vikings have a terrific group of receivers in Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph.
My personal opinion is that Bradford is a better quarterback than Cousins when healthy, but he has rarely been healthy. Minnesota has a lot to consider at this position this offseason, and Cousins' decision will set a lot of dominoes in motion.
New York Jets
The Jets are somewhat stuck this offseason, insofar as they brought back almost their entire staff, and promoted Jeremy Bates to offensive coordinator from within. Does this team still believe in Christian Hackenberg's talent? Does it believe it can replicate last season's offense without former OC John Morton if it just runs Josh McCown back in?
The Jets actually had some successful offensive games last year with McCown, though their seasonal DVOA is weighted down by the backups who must come in after McCown inevitably gets hurt. They would have to do the least cap-space wiggling of any of the finalists to afford Cousins and would have a lot left over to fill in around him.
Other QB-needy teams this offseason
Buffalo Bills
This team seemed to have a Dion Waiters-level of self-confidence about its internal evaluation of Nathan Peterman. On paper, it's an easy fit for Cousins, if not one where he would be excited about the receivers. But the Bills have a new offensive coordinator in Brian Daboll, and we have only quotes to go on in determining how Daboll's evaluations will play against those of head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane.
Miami Dolphins
What do the Dolphins think about Ryan Tannehill seven years down the road? The Dolphins will be off of Jay Cutler Island, but coach Adam Gase seemed sold on Tannehill during the 2016 season, when he completed a career-high 67 percent of his passes. Has Tannehill's ACL tear changed the way they view him? All we've had in Miami this offseason is radio silence.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have the No. 1 and No. 4 overall picks, one of which is likely to be used on their quarterback of the future. DeShone Kizer's first year was not productive, but there were some flashes of promise as well. There are some interesting skill position players here for whomever the Browns land, but it appears that it won't be Cousins.
Teams out of the mix
There are 25 teams who were never a legitimate contender for Cousins, based on their current situation:
Already paying a quarterback big money (17): 49ers (Garoppolo), Lions (Matthew Stafford), Raiders (Derek Carr), Colts (Luck), Saints (Brees), Ravens (Joe Flacco), Packers (Aaron Rodgers), Seahawks (Russell Wilson), Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger), Giants (Eli Manning), Chargers (Rivers), Panthers (Cam Newton), Falcons (Matt Ryan), Patriots (Tom Brady), Cincinnati (Andy Dalton), Washington (Smith), Jaguars (Blake Bortles)
I would argue that the Ravens, Bengals, Jaguars and Giants should have been interested in Cousins, but the general tendency toward inertia that these teams have already shown makes it unlikely that they'll ditch their current quarterbacks. And obviously, Washington won't be undoing a trade it just made.
Already have a promising young quarterback (8): Rams (Jared Goff), Bears (Mitchell Trubisky), Buccaneers (Jameis Winston), Titans (Marcus Mariota), Cowboys (Dak Prescott), Chiefs (Patrick Mahomes), Texans (Deshaun Watson), Eagles (Carson Wentz)
Obviously, there are some unproven players in this group, and some coming off down seasons, but none of these teams have shown any public indication that these players won't be starting next season.