Do league insiders think the top-seeded underdogs in Philadelphia have a chance against Atlanta? Will the Minnesota defense shut down the New Orleans offense?
ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asked three NFL execs to pick this weekend's divisional-round games. Here are their picks on Falcons-Eagles, Titans-Patriots, Jaguars-Steelers and Saints-Vikings:
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
Saturday: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: ATL by 3 | PickCenter
All three insiders are taking the Falcons to claim their fourth playoff victory in the past two seasons (they're currently tied with New England for most in that span). They all thought Nick Foles' presence in the Eagles' lineup shifted the odds too far in Atlanta's favor.
"I'm saying Philly can't win without their normal quarterback [Carson Wentz]," one insider said.
Foles has an 8-8 record with 14 touchdowns, 13 interceptions, a 28.4 QBR and 72.6 passer rating in his past 16 starts, which were spread over four seasons. That included a 2-6 record against playoff teams. Foles tossed four touchdown passes with no interceptions in two victories over playoff teams (Arizona and Seattle) in 2015, when he was a Ram.
The Falcons did lose to two quarterbacks who were not starters entering camp (Jay Cutler and Case Keenum). They lost another game to a quarterback who was later benched (Tyrod Taylor). The three combined had five touchdowns with one pick against Atlanta.
"Philly's defense hasn't been doing as great later in the season, and that is the thing that scares me," another insider said. "The D has not been getting enough consistent pressure, and if you don't get pressure in this game, Atlanta is going to kill you with those receivers and backs."
Before resting starters in Week 17, the Eagles played three games against starting quarterbacks who finished among the top 10 in Total QBR. They went 1-2 in those games, beating Dak Prescott in Week 11 while losing to Russell Wilson in Week 13 and Alex Smith in Week 2. Matt Ryan finished the season ranked fifth.
"For the Falcons, I see this game being very similar to the Rams game," the third insider said. "You will see Atlanta open it up a little bit more offensively. They wanted to keep the clock running against L.A. They will not be as conservative against Philly, but the plan will be very much in line with the way the L.A. game went."
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
Saturday: 8:15 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: NE by 13.5 | PickCenter
The Titans' three regular-season road victories came against teams featuring DeShone Kizer, Jacoby Brissett and Blake Bortles at quarterback.
Tennessee did rally to knock off Smith and Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium in the wild-card round, but the three best quarterbacks the Titans faced on the road during the regular season -- Deshaun Watson, Jimmy Garoppolo and Ben Roethlisberger -- passed for a combined nine touchdowns and one interception with a 90.4 Total QBR and 114.9 passer rating.
Advantage: Tom Brady.
With all three insiders picking New England, I asked them how Tennessee could defy expectations as a nearly two-touchdown underdog.
"Tennessee can run the ball, which could give New England fits, especially if they can get those gap-scheme runs going early," one insider said. "Then they will come right back with some zone-reads and then go back to the gap-scheme nakeds and play-actions down the field."
New England allowed 10 pass completions in the second half of the season on throws traveling more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. That was eight fewer than any Patriots team since charting began in 2006. It was tied for the NFL's third-lowest total in that span.
"I would say there has to be turnovers for Tennessee to beat the odds," another insider said. "Maybe multiple turnovers. You are dealing with a veteran coach and a team that no one gave any credence or credit to, and they are liking that underdog mentality. The fact that Mariota can run poses a different threat for New England, which otherwise only has to worry about the running game and then the tight end [Delanie Walker] in the passing game."
The Titans were minus-2 in turnover differential against the Chiefs in the wild-card round. They're 2-12 the past three seasons when finishing minus-2 or worse. Both victories were against the Chiefs. The 12 turnovers New England committed this season were the third lowest of the Brady era, and one off the Chiefs' league-leading total. The Patriots lost the turnover battle three times this season and still won two of those games; Week 14 against Miami without Rob Gronkowski was the only exception.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers
Sunday: 1:05 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: PIT by 7.5 | PickCenter
Roethlisberger has 22 touchdown passes with seven interceptions and a 9-1 starting record since he threw five picks in a Week 5 home loss to the Jaguars. All three insiders thought Roethlisberger's starting record would move to 10-1 after the rematch.
"I don't know that the Jacksonville defense plays different, but I know the offense in Pittsburgh will be better," one of the insiders said. "Playoff pressure will affect Blake Bortles. He already cracked last week. He is going to crack even worse this week."
The Jaguars are 9-0 this season when Bortles throws zero interceptions; he has 16 touchdown passes in those games. They are 2-6 in the rest of their games, with Bortles throwing six touchdown passes and 13 interceptions. Their wild-card victory over Buffalo last week and their upset of the Steelers earlier in the season are the Jags' only victories over 2017 playoff teams. Bortles has five picks and nine sacks in three losses to playoff teams.
"I expect to see Pittsburgh go a lot of empty and spread it out, mix tempo up and even turn around and run it," the second insider said. "Pittsburgh will be all over the place offensively against them. I don't think they are going to boat-race them because Jacksonville's defense is good enough to hang in there, but I just don't see Jacksonville doing enough on offense. The only thing would be if Big Ben had, like, two interceptions. If Jacksonville is going to win, it has to be with turnovers and a slow pace of play."
Including the playoffs, Jacksonville has held nine opponents to 10 or fewer points, the most in the NFL since Baltimore in 2008 (also nine). The 2002 Tampa Bay Buccaneers did it 11 times.
"The Jaguars can run the football, and Pittsburgh is not as good as they used to be at stopping the run," one of the insiders said. "So if the Jaguars can get some of that going, it is going be a real game, but if they can't and it turns into three-and-out after three-and-out because Bortles can't throw it, Pittsburgh will crush them. And I think they will eventually. I just don't know by how much."
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings
Sunday: 4:40 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: MIN by 4.5 | PickCenter
Two of the three insiders picked the Vikings to win a playoff game for the first time since Brett Favre and Sidney Rice led them to a 34-3 victory over Dallas following the 2009 season.
"Minnesota has a big advantage with the crowd noise in the indoor stadium, which helps the get-off for a D-line that can really get off," one of the insiders picking Minnesota said. "[Everson] Griffen has 13 sacks. Linval Joseph is a ridiculous Pro Bowl snub and a game-plan consideration at nose. [Drew] Brees likes to get under center and fool around at the line of scrimmage, but the crowd can affect some of that. He also likes to slide and step up instead of escaping the pocket. Well, Minnesota will have a good four-man rush plan for him, and that is where the get-off advantage is."
The Vikings' defense ranked second and the Saints' defense ranked 20th in ESPN's efficiency rankings for the second half of the season. Both offenses were in the top five. The Saints were 15th and the Vikings 25th in special teams.
"Minnesota is great at not giving up big plays, but Minnesota is in the same defense over and over and over again, which is not good when you have Sean Payton on the other side," another insider said. "Minnesota, as good as they have done offensively, if they kick a couple field goals and the Saints get one or two long scores, then it is going to be hard on Minnesota. Brees has such a huge playoff experience advantage on [Case] Keenum, and if Minnesota falls behind, that is just not their forte."
Another insider noted that the Vikings trailed only New England in avoiding turnovers in scoring territory, defined as the 35-yard line and closer. The Patriots have one turnover in that area. The Vikings have two. New Orleans has eight, which ranks 26th. That means fewer wasted scoring opportunities by Minnesota.
The third insider said he'll be watching to see how Payton handles game management. He noted that a timeout New Orleans called in the second quarter of the Week 1 game between the teams enabled a Vikings touchdown drive. Last week, Payton came under criticism for risking field position by passing on fourth-and-2 while protecting a late lead.
"Coaching decisions will be magnified," this insider said.