There are few NFL teams that are truly unique. Most teams follow a certain template and fit a historical archetype. The ground-and-pound teams. The all-offense, no-defense teams. The teams that ride a hot run into the playoffs in December. The good-not-great teams that sneak into the postseason thanks to an easy schedule.
We went looking for which archetypes fit the eight remaining playoff teams, and identified a team going back to 1990 that was heavily similar. Of course, no two teams are exactly the same, and similarities in the past don't guarantee future results. So we're not going to tell you the Patriots are going to follow in their own 2011 footsteps by losing the Super Bowl just because they have a similar defense, and we're not going to tell you the Patriots are in trouble this weekend because the Titans are similar to the 1996 Jaguars. However, we can learn something here about each team's strengths and weaknesses and how those may come into play in the postseason.
I started out by comparing this season's playoff teams to past playoff teams based on their ranks in various splits of Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings. Then I sorted through the most comparable teams to find one that was particularly similar when it came to player experience and season narrative. Teams are listed in order based on their chances of winning the Super Bowl (as detailed here). At the end, just for fun, we also tossed on some similarities for the four teams that were eliminated on wild-card weekend.
New England Patriots
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 29.2 percent
Most similar to: 2011 New England Patriots
Our first comparison is an absurdly obvious one. Both the 2011 Patriots and 2017 Patriots went 13-3. Both teams ranked in the top three of offensive DVOA and the top five of special teams DVOA. Both teams were near the bottom of Football Outsiders' defensive ratings -- the 2011 Patriots have the worst defensive DVOA of any team to ever make the Super Bowl -- but ranked much higher in conventional stats. The reasons, however, were different.
The 2011 Patriots were 32nd in yards per drive but improved to 21st in points per drive mostly thanks to turnovers. The 2017 Patriots are 32nd in yards per drive but improve all the way to sixth in points per drive primarily because they are so much better in the red zone than on the rest of the field.
The other major difference between these teams is that the 2011 Patriots were giving up heavy yardage all season long; the 2017 Patriots have distinctly improved over the course of the season, going from 31st in DVOA in Weeks 1-9 to 18th in Weeks 10-17.
Also similar: 2003 Kansas City Chiefs, 2010 New England Patriots, 2011 Green Bay Packers
Pittsburgh Steelers
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 19.8 percent
Most similar to: 2006 San Diego Chargers
The Steelers had a top-three offense in 2017, with both their defense and special teams ranked ninth. Combine that with a 13-3 record, and you get a similar profile to a lot of playoff teams. The 2006 Chargers don't quite fit this profile; they went 14-2 and were not as good as the 2017 Steelers on defense. But they match the Steelers in another important way: Unlike most of the teams that are similar to Pittsburgh on the surface, the 2006 Chargers and 2017 Steelers both saw their offenses get stronger over the course of the season while their defenses got weaker.
The 2006 Chargers dipped to 22nd in defensive DVOA after Week 10; this season's Steelers ranked 21st in that span. The 2006 Chargers also resemble the current Steelers because their pass defense was much better than their run defense. In their first playoff game, the 2006 Chargers outgained the Patriots but fumbled the ball away three times, including after a fourth-quarter Marlon McCree interception that seemed to ice a victory.
Also similar: 1990 Los Angeles Raiders, 1997 Denver Broncos, 2011 Pittsburgh Steelers
Minnesota Vikings
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 18.1 percent
Most similar to: 1998 New York Jets
The 2017 Vikings and 1998 Jets were both surprise division winners after mediocre seasons the year before, despite facing difficult schedules. (We rank the Vikings' schedule in 2017 the eighth toughest; the 1998 Jets were fifth.) Both were well-rounded teams, in the top five on both offense and defense, although uninspiring in the running game. The big difference between the two teams can be found at quarterback, where the Jets had a one-time No. 1 overall pick, Vinny Testaverde, while the Vikings have gotten a surprise MVP-consideration season out of undrafted veteran Case Keenum.
There was a quarterback around the same time whose out-of-nowhere season resembled Keenum's, however. Believe it or not, there are a lot of similarities between the 2017 Vikings and the 1999 "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams, once you filter out strength of schedule. The 1999 Rams played the easiest schedule of any team in the entire Football Outsiders database, going back 32 seasons. Filter that out from their awe-inspiring standard stats, and we rank the Rams fourth in offense and third in defense for 1999, similar ranks to this season's Vikings (fifth and second, respectively). And the 1999 Rams had a pass rush with Kevin Carter and D'Marco Farr that more resembled the 2017 Vikings than the 1998 Jets did.
Also similar: 2015 Arizona Cardinals, 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1993 Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 12.8 percent
Most similar to: 1996 Denver Broncos
A veteran quarterback looking to get back to the Super Bowl. He's throwing less than usual, more dependent on the running game and defense than ever before. There are a lot of similarities between this season's Saints and John Elway's Broncos in the mid-'90s.
When it comes to DVOA splits, the Saints this season were closer to the 1997 Broncos, but the narrative for the team much better resembles 1996. That was the year the Broncos' defense took a huge leap from 27th in DVOA to the top five, and it also was Terrell Davis' first All-Pro season. So this comparison provides a lot of reasons for Saints fans to be optimistic ... if they're willing to wait another year.
Also similar: 2008 Carolina Panthers, 1992 Houston Oilers, 2006 Philadelphia Eagles
Philadelphia Eagles
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 11.1 percent
Most similar to: 1990 New York Giants
Nick Foles, meet Jeff Hostetler. Like the Eagles, the 1990 Giants went 13-3 as a No. 1 seed but lost their starting quarterback (Phil Simms) to an injury in mid-December. Hostetler started two games at the end of the year and then led the team through the playoffs and to a Super Bowl title.
Another similarity between the teams is that each one had a defense rated better than its offense. That's probably not a surprise about the Bill Parcells/Bill Belichick Giants with Lawrence Taylor, but it might surprise you to know that the Eagles ranked higher in defensive DVOA than offensive DVOA this season. (This was true even before Carson Wentz was injured, as the Eagles ranked fourth on offense and third on defense through Week 14.) The biggest differences are that the Eagles are far better in run defense than the 1990 Giants, while the 1990 Giants were stronger running the ball and on special teams.
Also similar: 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2010 Pittsburgh Steelers, 1998 Green Bay Packers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 4.2 percent
Most similar to: 2007 Tennessee Titans
There were no great defenses in the NFL in 2007, and no historically terrible defenses, either. But thanks to a ferocious pass rush and superb (Cover 2) zone coverage, the Titans overcame week-to-week inconsistency and finished No. 1 in Football Outsiders' defensive DVOA ratings. They finished No. 1 despite ranking only 16th against the run. At 14.4 percent more efficient than average, the 2007 Titans are the worst defense to ever finish No. 1 in Football Outsiders' ratings.
If you've been reading Football Outsiders this year, or my writing at ESPN Insider, this should sound awfully familiar. The Jaguars finished the year 16.1 percent more efficient than average, making them the third-worst defense to ever finish No. 1 in Football Outsiders' ratings. They did this despite finishing just 26th against the run, because they combined a ferocious pass rush and superb (Cover 3) zone coverage. The 2017 Jaguars were even more inconsistent than the 2007 Titans.
And the other similarity: Both teams had average offenses built around a young power back (LenDale White, Leonard Fournette) and a young quarterback nobody could trust in the playoffs (Vince Young, Blake Bortles).
Also similar: 1991 Denver Broncos, 1993 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2001 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 3.6 percent
Most similar to: 2005 New England Patriots
The 2016 Falcons didn't finish the job, while the 2004 Patriots finished a dynastic run of three titles in four seasons. But after those Super Bowls is where the similarities begin. Both the 2005 Patriots and the 2017 Falcons had to replace coordinators on both sides of the ball. Both offenses were strong, but not as strong as the year before. Both defenses underwhelmed despite plenty of young talent. (The Falcons were 22nd in defensive DVOA this season, while the 2005 Patriots were 27th.) Both teams had to overcome top-10 schedules to finish 10-6, but were expected to do better.
Like the Falcons, the 2005 Patriots led off the playoffs by spanking a team with a better record, though unlike the Falcons, the Patriots were at home and clear favorites against the 12-4 wild-card Jaguars. The following week, the Patriots went to Denver and lost 27-13 in what I've always called the "No Magic Beans" game. That game was the first time in a while where Patriots fans had to accept that Bill Belichick and Tom Brady had no special magic beans. They weren't going to dominate every opponent and win every single title, and sometimes the opponent was just going to be better.
Unfortunately, Falcons fans already have dealt with this realization about their team. Depending on where they went to college, they've dealt with this realization about two teams.
Also similar: 2006 Kansas City Chiefs, 1998 Jacksonville Jaguars, 2011 New York Giants
Tennessee Titans
Chances of winning Super Bowl: 1.2 percent
Most similar to: 1996 Jacksonville Jaguars
As today's Jaguars are similar to the Titans of the past, so too are the Titans similar to this Jaguars team of the past. It's hard to find similar playoff teams for a squad that was outscored during the regular season, because very few teams make the playoffs after getting outscored during the regular season. But that was the story of the 1996 Jaguars, another middle-of-the road team with a young quarterback that went 9-7 thanks in part to an easy schedule. The 1996 Jaguars ranked 21st in schedule strength by average DVOA of opponent; this season's Titans were 30th. The Jaguars also sneaked into the playoffs on a complicated multi-team tiebreaker and upset a powerful offense with a fourth-quarter comeback. (They were down 27-20 to Jim Kelly and the Buffalo Bills and came back to win 30-27.)
The 1996 Jaguars then went on to upset the No. 1-seeded Broncos. That doesn't mean the Titans are going to do the same thing to the Patriots this Saturday night, but it's a reminder that it's possible.
Also similar: 2012 Minnesota Vikings, 1991 New York Jets, 1997 Minnesota Vikings
Eliminated teams
Similar to: 2012 Seattle Seahawks, 1992 Pittsburgh Steelers, 2013 Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City Chiefs
Similar to: 2000 St. Louis Rams, 2005 Cincinnati Bengals, 2004 Green Bay Packers
Carolina Panthers
Similar to: 2000 Philadelphia Eagles, 1997 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 2002 Atlanta Falcons
Buffalo Bills
Similar to: 2002 Cleveland Browns, 1996 Minnesota Vikings, 1994 Chicago Bears