Seven quarterbacks established themselves as NFL starters in 2017. No, I'm not talking about Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott. I'm talking about rookie QBs who started a bunch of games (Deshaun Watson, Mitchell Trubisky and DeShone Kizer). I'm talking about veterans who took hold of their chance to start (Case Keenum and Jimmy Garoppolo). And I'm talking about young guys with high ceilings who showed they can win in this league (Jared Goff and Jacoby Brissett).
So how would I rank them in terms of whom I'd start my team with? I'm talking about projecting their future upside and putting them in order from 1 to 7. It starts in Houston, in my opinion, with the rookie whose spectacular season was cut short:
1. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
2017 stats: 126-of-204 passing (61.8 percent) for 1,699 yards with 19 touchdowns, 8 interceptions in 7 games (6 starts); 81.9 Total QBR
What I saw this season: Watson made some rookie throws and was at times baited into trouble by veteran defensive backs. Those are correctable moments, however. What simply can't be coached is Watson's playmaking talent or the unique intangibles he brings to the field. Playing in a Texans system that smartly adapted to maximize his skill set, the No. 12 overall pick showed the ability to move defenders with his eyes in the pocket, make off-schedule plays and use his athleticism to create stress for defenders. That allowed Houston to use the play-action game, quick passing and quarterback-designed runs to light up opposing defenses before Watson went down with a knee injury.
Why he's ranked here: The ACL injury has to be discussed here, but Watson has been through a knee rehab before, and he's only 22. Age is a huge part of his high ceiling -- it's why he's No. 1 on this list. He'll come back strong next season. Watson is a perfect fit for the modern NFL game with movement schemes, run-pass options and the ability to attack all three levels of the field from multiple throwing platforms. Plus, I love watching him compete. That's why Watson can play through in-game adversity and come back to drop a dime over the top of the secondary. And he's just getting started. You want upside? This is it. And this is the young quarterback I'd build my team around.
2. Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers
2017 stats: 120-of-178 passing (67.4 percent) for 1,560 yards with 7 touchdowns, 5 interceptions in 6 games (5 starts); 80.6 Total QBR
What I saw this season: After being traded in the middle of the season, Garoppolo made a smooth transition into Kyle Shanahan's offense. Yes, that system is legit and it will create some open throwing windows. But to have a QB come in and show total command of the offense -- the Niners went 5-0 in Garoppolo's starts -- in that short of a time frame? Super impressive. Now, add in Garoppolo's lightning-quick release, the on-point ball placement and mobility. Those are traits that apply to any NFL system. Yes, it's still a small sample size, but there is no question about Garoppolo's ability to attack tight windows, manipulate defenders with his eyes or make stick throws on the move. His tape passes the test. And I expect him to be better with more time learning Shanahan's concepts. Shanahan coached Matt Ryan to an MVP season in his second year with the Falcons.
Why he's ranked here: At 26, Garoppolo hasn't yet entered his prime, but he showcases so many traits of an experienced, veteran quarterback. That's the poise, decision-making and leadership in critical game moments. Plus, how can we not see the seamless fit with Shanahan? The middle-of-the-field throws, the deep-ball opportunities off play-action or the leveled targets when Garoppolo pulls the ball on boot action. With Shanahan's playcalling, and Garoppolo's advanced skill set to dice up coverages, the expectations should be sky-high in San Francisco. It's why 49ers fans are pumped heading into 2018.
3. Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams
2017 stats: 296-of-477 passing (62.1 percent) for 3,804 yards with 28 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 16 starts; 52.1 Total QBR
What I saw this season: Goff started only seven games as a rookie, and there were still questions about him under former coach Jeff Fisher's staff. That's why his second-year jump was unexpected, though there was a reason he was picked No. 1 overall. Give credit to new Rams coach Sean McVay, though, for developing his quarterback in a system that creates positive opportunities. And that allowed us to see Goff's skill set at work. I love the arm talent, the ability to put touch on the ball and his improvement in field vision. Goff has the accuracy to make bucket throws over the top and thread the ball between defenders. Plus, think about his footwork and the growth we've seen in Year 2. This guy looks like a different player when resetting his throwing platform. And like Garoppolo, he is playing in a system that will highlight his strengths.
Why he's ranked here: Goff is still only 23, and I expect even more signs of development after another offseason with McVay. He is just getting started. But I also want Goff to grow as a passer when things are taken away, like what we saw in the wild-card loss to the Falcons. Goff can improve his pocket management and show the ability to respond to defensive game plans that limit the top routes he wants to throw. I don't think Goff is near his ceiling yet. And that's a major positive when talking about upside. With McVay running things in L.A., expect Goff to take another step forward next season.
4. Case Keenum, Minnesota Vikings
2017 stats: 325-of-481 passing (67.6 percent) for 3,547 yards with 22 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 15 games (14 starts); 69.6 Total QBR
What I saw this season: Keenum had made 24 NFL starts across four seasons prior to the 2017 season, but there was a reason he signed a one-year, $2 million deal with the Vikings last offseason to back up Sam Bradford. No teams saw the former undrafted free agent as a starter. But he was thrust into the mix as the Vikings' starter because of Bradford's knee injury in Week 1, and Keenum used that opportunity to produce legit numbers in Pat Shurmur's offense. With the arm talent to challenge defenses vertically inside of the numbers, the movement skills to deliver the rock outside of the pocket and the veteran moxie to make things happen, Keenum was mentioned as a possible MVP candidate late in the season. Look, the 6-foot-1 Keenum has some sandlot ball to his game. And I like that. This guy can create when things break down, and he's smart with the ball. He was accurate on the tape I watched and played within the system to put pressure on opposing defenses.
Why he's ranked here: Keenum will turn 30 next month, so his upside is obviously lower than that of Watson, Garoppolo and Goff. Plus, Shurmur has to get some of the credit for Keenum's production. The Vikings offensive coordinator did an excellent job in drawing up the game plan. But Keenum is going to hit free agency -- if the Vikings don't lock him up long term -- with several suitors. And he should be paid starting money on the market. He's a guy I would target if my squad needs a veteran leader at the position. The 2017 tape tells the story with Keenum. He's going to fit in multiple schemes based on his skill set and ability to create -- and he's going to get paid.
5. Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears
2017 stats: 196-of-330 passing (59.4 percent) for 2,193 yards with 7 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 12 starts; 29.2 Total QBR
What I saw this season: We didn't get to see the entire picture with Trubisky, who played in an extremely limited offense in Chicago. From the game plan to the lack of weapons at wide receiver, the 2017 campaign was more about game reps for the Bears quarterback. And that includes the rookie mistakes. Trubisky did show us flashes of some real upside, however. Just look at his ability to rip the ball between the numbers, the accuracy when moving to the edge of the pocket and the athleticism to pull the ball or produce on QB-designed runs. With a solid frame to work inside of the pocket and the talent to make those off-schedule plays when things go south, the No. 2 overall pick has a pretty high ceiling. He's tough too. And with the Bears making a coaching change, Trubisky should be in a position to play in a more QB-friendly offense under new coach Matt Nagy. That's why I'm expecting a sizable leap in his development in 2018.
Why he's ranked here: Given his limited starts at North Carolina (13) and the 12 games he played this season in that limited system, the book is still wide-open on Trubisky. Even with those flashes he showed and the athletic skill set that fits today's NFL, his grade is still incomplete. Trubisky will be put in a position to play more aggressive football in a modern system under Nagy, however. Think of the core West Coast routes, play-action and the college spread concepts that will cater to Trubisky's overall game. And because he is just 23, the Bears can go all-in with Trubisky: Upgrade the talent around him and begin to truly develop his skill set as a pro passer.
6. Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis Colts
2017 stats: 276-of-479 passing (58.8 percent) for 3,098 yards with 13 touchdowns and 7 interceptions in 15 starts; 37.9 Total QBR
What I saw this season: In only his second NFL season, Brissett had to learn the Colts' system on the fly after being traded to Indianapolis leading up to Week 1. And given those circumstances, we have to look at the positives to the game of the 2016 third-round pick. He has the big frame to hang in the pocket, some touch on boundary throws over the top of underneath defenders and the arm talent on deep inside cuts. He can sling the rock on the dig route/skinny post. Plus, he plays with good body control. Yes, Brissett isn't a blazer when he pulls down the ball to run. But he has enough wiggle to his game to make a defender miss, along with the toughness to take a hit. What would I like to see? A quicker process in the pocket. Brissett was sacked 52 times in 2017, the most in the league. And while those aren't all on him, he has to get the ball out with more speed, while also developing some touch throughout the entire route tree.
Why he's ranked here: Brissett, 24, is coming off his first season as a No. 1 quarterback. With more reps and some tweaks to his release/mechanics, he has the talent base to develop in an offensive system built on rhythm and timing. Footwork, eyes and ball placement -- those are the next steps for Brissett's growth. But where does that happen? With Andrew Luck expected to return healthy for the Colts next season, Brissett is intriguing as a trade option. He is still on his rookie contract, with two more years left at less than a $1 million per season. And he brings 17 starts to the table. Yes, Brissett has areas of his game that need to improve. But after going back through the tape, there are a lot of positive traits here that can be developed. And I could see a team dealing for him this offseason.
7. DeShone Kizer, Cleveland Browns
2017 stats: 255-of-476 (53.6 percent) for 2,894 yards with 11 touchdowns and 22 interceptions in 15 starts; 29.6 Total QBR
What I saw this season: I can see why Kizer came off the board as a Day 2 pick in the 2017 draft. The rookie out of Notre Dame has a lot of raw talent. Just look at the velocity he can generate on the ball. Rockets. That can put him in a position to throw deep out cuts, attack a tight window up the seam or challenge the secondary down the field. And with that pro-ready 6-foot-4, 233-pound frame -- plus the mobility to skate away from trouble -- he has a lot of the tools that coaches want in terms of future development and upside. But Kizer was tossed into the mix in Cleveland when he wasn't quite ready to contribute, and he struggled to protect the ball, which is one of the most important things a quarterback has to do. Some of that can be attributed to his lack of touch and decision-making. I get that. But I also saw a young quarterback whose confidence was shaken by the coach's management of the depth chart at the position.
Why he's ranked here: I don't question that Kizer has upside. There is talent here to develop with coaching and more game time. The issue moving forward, and why I have Kizer ranked at the end of this list, comes down to opportunity in 2018. With the Browns making a front-office change -- and holding the Nos. 1 and 4 picks in the draft -- will Kizer get a shot to compete for the starting spot in Cleveland next season? Or is this a situation in which the Browns pick a QB early and roll with another rookie? Remember, so much of the development at this position comes down to the team situation and opportunity. And Kizer might not have the chance to get those much-needed reps in 2018.