SEATTLE -- The young Los Angeles Rams toyed with the aging, injured Seattle Seahawks while handing Seahawks coach Pete Carroll the most lopsided defeat of his eight-year tenure. The Rams' 42-7 victory at CenturyLink Field felt like an NFC West power transfer.
The fallout for Seattle could be extensive, especially if the 8-6 Seahawks fail to reach the playoffs for the first time since 2011, Carroll's second as head coach.
It's why Seattle ranks No. 1 on my list of most intriguing teams in line for offseason overhauls. These teams aren't rebuilding the way the Cleveland Browns are rebuilding. They have been competitive this season (or recently), and all six carried high expectations into 2017. Each is now arriving at a crossroads, and how these teams finish could determine which direction they head from here.
1. Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks' loss Sunday all but assures that 2017 will mark the second time in three seasons that a team other than Seattle will win the NFC West. Arizona won it in 2015, and the Rams will almost surely win the current race. The odds are now stacked against Seattle even reaching the playoffs -- not good for a team that went all-in to maximize its championship window by trading prime draft choices for defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson and tackle Duane Brown.
"Watching the Seahawks on Sunday, it just looked like the Rams' time," a veteran coach from another team said. "Whenever the talent is young together and has not reached the second contract, that is where a team can be at its best. That is where the Rams are. That is not where Seattle is right now. Some guys are injured, some are declining and some think their s--- does not stink. Not everybody is No. 29 [Earl Thomas]."
Seattle's defensive starters were the NFL's third oldest by average age through the first four games of the season, a window that captured lineups before injuries forced mainstay defenders such as Cliff Avril and Kam Chancellor to the injured list.
The neck injuries that Avril (will turn 32 in April) and Chancellor (will turn 30 in April) suffered will probably prevent them from playing again. Even if one or both were able to resume their careers, the Seahawks would have to decide whether to keep them in the fold. Cornerback Richard Sherman (30 in March) will be coming off a torn Achilles tendon while heading into the final year of his contract. Will the team want to bring him back under his $11 million base salary?
"It makes me wonder, do you just blow it all up?" an exec asked.
Richardson and defensive end Frank Clark are two younger defenders with expiring contracts. Seattle figures to make them high priorities for re-signing, but a long list of "name" players beyond the previously mentioned defensive stalwarts could be headed out the door: Jimmy Graham, Eddie Lacy, Luke Joeckel, Blair Walsh and more.
The Seahawks once set the NFL standard for drafting and developing players. As they inevitably go younger on defense, will they be able to develop the next generation without some of the coaches who helped make it happen years ago (former defensive coordinator Dan Quinn comes to mind)? Are staff changes a possibility, or will Carroll decide to stay the course?
Seattle might have expected its veteran defensive core to diminish incrementally over a period of years, but now there is a reckoning all at once. How long before age catches up to the 32-year-old Michael Bennett?
"This will be hard for them to take," another exec said. "They've been on top for six years."
2. Arizona Cardinals
Perhaps no team faces starker choices than the Cardinals.
Arizona could return coach Bruce Arians, quarterback Carson Palmer and the same basic core for one more run in 2018, the final year of Palmer's contract. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald already extended his deal through next season. Was that a tipoff? Palmer won't be worn down after missing much of the season with a broken left arm. Perhaps he'll want to go out another way.
It's just as plausible to think the nearly 38-year-old Palmer could retire, or even that Arizona could decide to move on without him. Would the 65-year-old Arians stick around without a franchise-quarterback replacement on the roster? Will the team decide a coaching change is in order after Arians went from 34-14 in his first three seasons to 13-16-1 over the past two?
"I think they blow it up," an exec said. "Or, at least, I think they should blow it up. Palmer is right there at the end. Fitzgerald is nearing the end. Their whole team is getting old. It is time, or they will look back and say it was a year too late."
Arizona went into this season with the NFL's oldest starters by average age. They also rank among the leaders in 2017 starts by players without contracts for next season. Change is coming to the Cardinals' roster even if Arians and Palmer do return.
3. New York Giants
The overhaul has already begun for the Giants. They will have a new head coach and new general manager. They could have a new starting quarterback.
"Do they change their whole philosophy?" an exec asked.
Not necessarily.
The Giants hired former GM Ernie Accorsi to consult on their GM search. When Accorsi served in a similar role for Carolina several years ago, he recommended the Panthers hire Dave Gettleman, who was Accorsi's longtime lieutenant with the Giants. Accorsi could be inclined to recommend Gettleman or someone else with ties to the Giants and reverence for how the team has operated. But with so much in flux until the Giants set a course for the future, they need to be on this list.
4. Oakland Raiders
The Raiders fired defensive coordinator Ken Norton during the season, but their offense has been more disappointing than their defense. Do they decide to bring back coach Jack Del Rio and offensive coordinator Todd Downing? Do they look at the way Sean McVay turned around an underperforming Rams team and decide a coaching change is the way to go?
Oakland needs a defensive talent overhaul, especially at linebacker, no matter what happens. That seemed clear heading into the season, and it's obvious now that Oakland is ranked among the bottom five in ESPN's metric for defensive efficiency.
How far will the overhaul reach?
Del Rio signed a contract extension after last season, which means the team would take a financial hit for firing him. But with Nevada taxpayers picking up much of the tab for the Raiders' future stadium home, money could be less of an object, an executive from another team suggested.
"No rational person should fire Del Rio if they go 6-10 this year, but no rational person should have given Del Rio the extension last year when they were 12-4 for the first time," another executive said. "So, what is rational?"
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Bucs fired Lovie Smith after going 2-14 and 6-10 during his two seasons. Dirk Koetter took the record to 9-7 last season, and the Bucs' excitement for 2017 was palpable during their appearance on "Hard Knocks." They embraced the hype, only to start 4-9 this season.
What if the Bucs go 4-12? The question seems timely with Tampa Bay inducting Jon Gruden into its Ring of Honor on Monday night.
The annual speculation about Gruden possibly leaving the ESPN broadcast booth for an NFL sideline comes with a twist this year, because so many teams with promising young quarterbacks could be looking for head coaches.
Tampa Bay, Oakland, Tennessee and Indianapolis all have highly drafted franchise quarterbacks who are not meeting expectations. All could be looking for coaches, and multiple execs polled Sunday said they thought a Gruden return was likely in 2018, with Tampa as the most likely destination. There was also some thought Oakland could be a strong player if the Raiders decided to make a change, on the thinking that Derek Carr could be a strong draw.
Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston faces a somewhat uncertain future pending an NFL investigation into his behavior toward a female Uber driver.
Tampa's personnel appears relatively strong overall, but if the team replaced Koetter with a high-powered head coach, big changes could follow.
6. Cincinnati Bengals
Owner Mike Brown has long been a stay-the-course guy, so there are no guarantees the organization will seek an overhaul.
The team might simply think that a coaching change could jump-start a franchise that ranked fifth in regular-season win percentage from 2012 to '16.
Head coach Marvin Lewis appears on his way out after 15 seasons. That change is momentous by Cincy standards. Quarterback Andy Dalton has reached the point in his contract where the team could move on from him without incurring undue salary-cap consequences. Brown, the owner, turns 83 in August. Is it time to make a bold move?
"The answer is no, they probably will not overhaul it, but if you are ever going to do that, maybe now is the time," a longtime evaluator said. "At some point, your team is not very good. They got bad in a hurry. The other thing is, you look at Dalton and wonder if he is really good enough. If I am Mike Brown, I am asking myself that question."
Other considerations
Tennessee Titans: Closing home games against the 10-4 Rams and 10-4 Jaguars are threatening to drop the Titans to 8-8 after road losses to Arizona and San Francisco. The Titans missed this list on the thinking that any overhaul would focus more on the coaching staff than on personnel.
Denver Broncos: The thinking on Denver was that GM John Elway would force changes to the staff while searching for a quarterback but that the personnel changes would be less dramatic overall.
Detroit Lions: What are they? Where are they in their development? The Lions won in Week 15 and could realistically get to 9-7, which could ward off big changes.