Schedule matters in the NFL. Last year, the Philadelphia Eagles had the second-hardest schedule by Football Outsiders metrics and went 7-9. This year, the Eagles' schedule ranks 30th so far, and they've got the best record in the NFL at 8-1. The New England Patriots rode the NFL's easiest schedule to a 14-2 record last season; the Carolina Panthers rode the easiest schedule to a 15-1 record the year before.
The timing of home and road games matters as well. Last year, the Denver Broncos started defending their Super Bowl 50 title with a 6-2 record, thanks in part to five home games in the first eight. They played five road games over the final eight, and went 3-5 the rest of the way.
Which teams have the most favorable and least favorable schedules in the second half of the season? To figure that out, we looked at the expected winning percentage of a perfectly average team against each team's remaining schedule. This method incorporates both the quality of the teams left on the schedule (based on Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings, explained here) and the split of home and road games.
Probabilities for playing teams such as Green Bay and Houston are adjusted for backup quarterbacks, and the probability of beating Dallas is adjusted during running back Ezekiel Elliott's suspension.
Note that our list includes only teams with at least a 10 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Five easiest remaining schedules
1. Jacksonville Jaguars (average team winning percentage: .596)
The NFL schedule-makers have lined up a series of offensive cupcakes for the breakout Jacksonville defense to gobble up over the final two months. Cleveland, Arizona, Indianapolis, Houston and San Francisco are all on the menu. Even an average team would win each of those games at least 60 percent of the time, despite playing three of the five contests on the road. The only two above-average opponents left on the Jacksonville schedule are Seattle (home, Week 14) and Tennessee (road, Week 17). That latter game could decide the AFC South title, but given how easy the rest of this Jacksonville schedule is, it probably won't.
2. Kansas City Chiefs (.591)
Kansas City was the hottest team early in the season despite the hardest schedule in the AFC to this point. The average team would have gone .437 against Kansas City's past schedule, so things are about to change significantly. Four of Kansas City's final seven games are at home, and only one of those opponents has a winning record: the collapsing Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs also fly to beautiful New Jersey twice in the next three weeks, taking on the Giants on Sunday and then the Jets in Week 13, and they finish the season in Denver. Each of those three road opponents ranks in the bottom 10 in overall DVOA.
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (.558)
The Steelers have one of the easiest remaining schedules based on what we would expect for an average NFL team, which would be a more useful measure if the Steelers played anything like an average NFL team. Instead, they've been the Steelers, which means they play down to bad opponents on the road, but generally play well against good opponents, except when they were smashed by Jacksonville, which happened at Heinz Field, thus disrupting the whole "Ben Roethlisberger is great at home and terrible on the road" pattern.
For an average team, certainly, playing five of the final seven games at home would be a huge bonus. The Week 15 game against New England will be difficult (and hugely important). But the Titans have a below-average DVOA despite their 6-3 record, the Packers are easier to beat without Aaron Rodgers, and the Steelers already handled the Ravens easily in Baltimore. They finish the season against Cleveland, a cakewalk unless the Steelers get to rest starters because of guaranteed playoff seeding.
A trip to Cincinnati for Monday Night Football in Week 13 should be feisty, but the Bengals are not good this year. A trip to play the Tom Savage-led Houston Texans on Christmas Day would be easy for an average team, but here it sets off the "2017 Steelers road disappointment" sirens.
4. Baltimore Ravens (.545)
The Ravens are still in the thick of the AFC playoff race at 4-5 for two reasons. First, there are only six teams in the AFC that even have winning records. Second, the schedule. Four of Baltimore's final seven games are at home, and Detroit is the only one of those opponents that's above average in DVOA. (Houston, Indianapolis and Cincinnati are the others.) A trip to Pittsburgh in Week 14 will be difficult, but the Ravens' defense (third in DVOA) should have fun toying with Packers backup QB Brett Hundley (this Sunday) and Cleveland's DeShone Kizer (Week 15).
5. Buffalo Bills (.541)
The Bills' strength of schedule is peculiar. It's easier than average, but the high win probability is all packed into three games in the final month: Indianapolis and Miami at home in Weeks 14 and 15, then a trip to Miami to finish out the season. The other four games are all more likely to be losses: road trips to face the Chargers and Chiefs the next two Sundays, and a home-and-home with the New England Patriots. The average team would be expected to win an average of 3.8 games against this schedule, but that's mostly three wins against Miami and Indy, and 8-8 probably won't get Buffalo into the playoffs. Somewhere in there, the Bills need to turn 3.8 expected wins into four or five, and that's going to be much tougher.
Five toughest remaining schedules
1. Los Angeles Rams (average team winning percentage: .469)
Even as the Rams have gradually convinced doubters that their success is not a fluke, the upcoming part of the schedule has always loomed on the horizon. So far, the Rams have played one of the five easiest schedules in the league. Only three of their past opponents currently have a winning record. But in their next six games, the Rams will face five different teams with winning records, including the other three current NFC division leaders. Four of their final seven games come on the road.
That being said, the Rams' remaining schedule is not as hard as the No. 1 listing here would make you think. First of all, two of those three contests against division leaders are in Los Angeles. The Rams must travel to Minnesota this week, but they will host the Saints in Week 12 and the Eagles in Week 14. Second, note the caveat above that we are only writing up playoff contenders. The Rams' remaining schedule is actually third in difficulty, behind the Jets and 49ers. And third, this is simply a year without killer second-half schedules. When I wrote a similar article last season, the five hardest second-half schedules all came out as tougher than what the Rams face for the rest of 2017.
2. Atlanta Falcons (.471)
The Falcons get four of their final seven games at home, but they still have almost their entire division schedule awaiting them. That's a problem, because the New Orleans Saints look like the hottest team in football right now. The Falcons face the Saints in Week 14 (at home on Thursday Night Football) and Week 16 (in New Orleans). The Falcons also have to end the season against Carolina. At least a home-and-home with Tampa Bay should be easier. However, Atlanta's two non-division games include a trip to Seattle next Monday night and a home game against the NFC North-leading Minnesota Vikings in Week 13. So five of the Falcons' final seven opponents are 6-3 or better.
3. Green Bay Packers (.473)
A win against the Bears has kept the Packers in the playoff hunt, even with Hundley at quarterback. But it doesn't get easier from here on out, especially for Hundley, because the rest of the schedule is packed with tough defenses. Three of Green Bay's next five games come against teams currently ranked in the top five in defensive DVOA: home against Baltimore, at Pittsburgh and at Carolina. There's a tiny chance that Rodgers might be able to come back, maybe even by the time the Packers play Carolina in Week 15. But if he can't, Hundley has to finish the season against two division rivals who also rank among the top dozen defenses: Minnesota (eighth) at Lambeau in Week 16, then a trip to Detroit (12th) for Week 17.
4. Seattle Seahawks (.476)
In the middle of their final seven games, the Seahawks get a little tour of this season's three biggest turnaround teams: Philadelphia in Week 13, Jacksonville in Week 14, and the Los Angeles Rams in Week 15. At least the Eagles and Rams games are at home in front of the 12s, but after that the Seahawks will travel to Dallas and face a very well-rested Elliott. Atlanta this week is the other hard remaining opponent, but that one is also at home. Week 12 at San Francisco and a season-ending home game against Arizona should give the Seahawks a bit of a break.
5. Dallas Cowboys (.477)
With three games separating Dallas and Philadelphia, it's unlikely the Elliott suspension will decide the NFC East on its own. However, it would be Philadelphia on this list instead of Dallas if the Eagles had to face the Cowboys with Elliott twice instead of just once (in Week 17). Instead, the Cowboys qualify with one of the five toughest remaining schedules, simply because they play Philadelphia twice.
Dallas will face the Eagles this week short-handed: no Elliott, no Sean Lee, and probably no Tyron Smith again, either. However, the rest of the schedule is not too tough, partly because four of Dallas' final seven games are at home. This week starts a three-game homestand that also includes a Thanksgiving matchup with the Chargers and the following Thursday night game against Washington. The fourth remaining home game is Christmas Eve against the Seahawks. The road games include trips to face the Giants and Raiders before the Week 17 rematch in Philadelphia.
Note: You might have noticed all the easiest schedules among playoff contenders are AFC teams, and the toughest were all NFC teams. The easiest remaining schedule for an NFC contender is Detroit (.540). The hardest remaining schedule for an AFC contender is Oakland (.482).