The hype for the quarterback class in the 2018 NFL draft has been off the charts. ESPN draft experts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay each have three quarterbacks ranked among their top six prospects overall, and there are a few other signal-callers on the fringe of the first-round discussion.
With Josh Rosen and Sam Darnold squaring off this weekend (8 p.m. ET on ABC), let's take the pulse of the class and evaluate what I've seen on tape for seven of the top prospects -- both the positives and negatives. I'm also including Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield, Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk here.
Though we don't know which of these QBs will be in the draft -- this list includes five underclassmen, and the deadline for underclassmen to declare for the draft is Jan. 15 -- we have seen enough from all of them on tape to make an early opinion. It's important to note, however, that a lot could change before the draft in April. The order below is based on Kiper's latest QB ranking:
Sam Darnold fires a perfect strike to Tyler Vaughns for a 19-yard touchdown. Also on the play, Dasmond Tautalatasi is ejected for targeting.
Josh Rosen, UCLA Bruins
Junior | 28 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 1
The good: Rosen is the most gifted passer of this group. I could go all the way back to his freshman tape to see that. He can make every throw in the book. There's natural arm talent here for a prospect with the frame (6-foot-4, 218 pounds) and pocket ability to fit a pro scheme on the first day of camp. Plus, Rosen has been asked to carry the load for a UCLA team that lacks a defensive identity. It's squarely on the arm of Rosen to lead this program, just as he did during the epic Week 1 comeback win over Texas A&M. Drive the team down the field and deliver a dime on a back-shoulder fade in the final minute (see above). That still jumps out to me. Put the ball in Rosen's hands and go get a win. That's leadership on the field.
The bad: Rosen doesn't have the athleticism or mobility of some of the quarterbacks in this class, and his sophomore tape lacked consistency before he went down with a shoulder injury. Plus, he is still over-aggressive with the ball at times, as we saw in the loss at Arizona. Rosen threw two red zone picks, forcing one into a tight window over the middle, and he was extremely late on an outside comeback that turned into a pick-six for the Wildcats. NFL scouts will have to take a hard look at that tape.
The verdict: With much more consistent play and overall accuracy in his junior season, in an offense that asks Rosen to chuck the ball around, he has climbed into the mix with Darnold at the top of the class. And if the UCLA star can ace the pre-draft process, he's going to be hard to pass up for some QB-needy teams near the top of the draft.
Josh Allen finds Austin Fort in the end zone for a 20-yard touchdown pass.
Sam Darnold, USC Trojans
Third-year sophomore | 21 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 2
The good: Darnold's 2017 Rose Bowl performance against Penn State -- 453 yards, five touchdowns and a pick -- pushed his draft stock through the roof. I still go back to that tape. The surgical accuracy, the ability to throw outside of the pocket and the bucket throws in critical game moments. It's all there. And Darnold (6-4, 225 pounds) created some late-game magic again in the win over Texas earlier this season. Step up and make a play. Those are the intangibles I want at the position. With the ability to effortlessly thread the ball into tight windows, such as the post route he tossed for six in the win over Arizona State (see above), and the mobility to dice up coverages on the run, Darnold is a perfect fit for today's NFL game.
The bad: Darnold's 18 turnovers are the most by any player in college football this season. The picks, the fumbles, holding the ball too low in the pocket -- those add up. Go check out the Washington State film. Darnold carelessly put the rock on the turf in a late-game moment against a free rusher during the Cougs' upset win. And his mechanics and release are being questioned (again). Darnold has to clean up those areas of his game, and I expected much more consistency and growth this season coming off that Rose Bowl performance.
The verdict: Even with those concerns and some up-and-down 2017 tape, I still see Darnold as the most pro-ready QB in this class. You can't teach accuracy, and Darnold is already ahead of the curve with his movement, vision and ability to work through full field reads. He has the makeup of a top-five pick.
Baker Mayfield off the play-action passes to Lee Morris for the 18-yard Oklahoma touchdown.
Josh Allen, Wyoming Cowboys
Fourth-year junior | 25 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 3
The good: Allen's raw ability and 6-5 frame will be a major draw in terms of his overall ceiling. Look, the tools are there. A rocket arm, solid athleticism and the ability to make off-schedule plays -- Allen has monster upside. Go back to the touchdown pass against Boise State when Allen rolled outside to dial up six (see above) or the strike from the pocket in the win over New Mexico. He just flicked that ball and put it on a rope from 45 yards out. Allen can launch the ball from any platform, and the velocity means every route is in play. This guy can sling it.
The bad: Allen didn't flash much in his two major tests this year against Iowa and Oregon. I expected more there. And he hasn't lit up the lower-level competition in the Mountain West Conference, leaving plays on the field like the seam route that was picked against Boise State. Gotta hit that window and drive the ball. Add in the sandlot plays that have a short shelf life in the NFL and I see a QB who has a ways to go before he hits his true ceiling. Even with the amount of talent that left Wyoming after last season, Allen, who's dealing with a shoulder injury now, hasn't quite played up to the hype.
The verdict: This is about projecting talent. And the Wyoming quarterback has plenty of it. He's going to wow NFL teams in the pre-draft throwing sessions, and he should test well at the combine. Now, I don't see a top-15 prospect here, even projecting out his ceiling. But don't be surprised if he comes off the board much earlier than expected. Some team is going to bite. There's too much raw ability to pass up.
Mason Rudolph throws a beautiful ball to James Washington for a 35-yard touchdown pass.
Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma Sooners
Fifth-year senior | 43 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 4
The good: Mayfield jumps off the tape with a playmaking skill set, vision and the ability to make tight window throws. Although he doesn't have a cannon for an arm, he has a quick release. That allows him to attack small creases in coverage. His pocket awareness is developing, and his eyes are always moving. He passed a prime-time test against Ohio State earlier this season, threading the ball between defenders and ad-libbing to create explosive plays (see above). And he just torched Oklahoma State and TCU for more than 900 passing yards in key matchups with College Football Playoff implications. I like that. Give me the quarterback who welcomes the big stage. That's the high-level drive I want to see at the position.
The bad: NFL scouts will point to Oklahoma's innovative spread offense and leaky Big 12 defenses as a catalyst for Mayfield's ridiculous numbers. He won't get that many free looks over the top in the league. And scouts will want to see him take the next step with his patience in the pocket before hitting the eject button and looking to scramble. Have to wade through those muddy waters. Plus, will Mayfield hit the 6-foot mark at the combine? His height will be a discussion point through the pre-draft process.
The verdict: Mayfield should test well athletically, and his overall game fits the modern NFL. Quick passing, play-action and inside vertical throws. Plus, he's going to create some opportunities outside the box. Given his frame, Mayfield should check in as an early Day 2 pick. And he should play as a rookie.
Lamar Jackson completes to Jaylen Smith for a 75-yard touchdown to give the Cardinals the lead in the second quarter.
Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Senior | 38 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 5
The good: Rudolph is the model of consistency in the Oklahoma State system. He has the size and toughness in the pocket that NFL scouts want. And he has played a ton of football -- 38 starts for the Cowboys. He has improved in every season. I see enough pop in his arm to challenge over the top or outside of the numbers. He can push the ball up the seam, and he shows good touch down the field (see above). Plus, Rudolph has shown me he can attack tight windows. That comes from his ability to see coverages and anticipate small slices of daylight.
The bad: I wouldn't expect Rudolph to wow scouts in athletic testing. He's not a quick-twitch athlete. I don't see the lateral movement skills or the sudden glimpse of speed on tape. He can pull the ball down to run on designed schemes or when the pocket starts to fold up, but he's not a natural athlete. Scouts are also going to question the Cowboys' run-pass option system that produces plenty of open windows for Rudolph to deliver the ball. There are a lot of targets running free. He misses those throws a little too often.
The verdict: This is a strong, experienced quarterback who has the makeup of an accurate pocket thrower in a progressive NFL route tree. Even if Rudolph puts up average numbers in testing, his size (6-5, 230 pounds) and ability to throw from inside the pocket will boost his overall grade. I see him as a second- or third-round pick.
Lamar Jackson, Louisville Cardinals
Junior | 31 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 7
The good: With unlimited athletic ability and improved accuracy in the passing game, Jackson has seen his stock climb this season. He has tweaked his release and is showing the ability to deliver the ball on time and with zip. Go check out the North Carolina tape and the ability to evade the rush, step up and make the throw with perfect touch over the top (see above). Plus, Jackson will test off the charts at the combine. I'm talking about freakish numbers for a quarterback. Blazing speed and amazing body control. He looks like a low 4.4 40-yard dash guy on tape. And he can shake defenders in the running game.
The bad: Jackson struggled in the loss to Clemson, completing 21 of 42 passes, and he was baited into a pick-six. He forced some throws. And he must develop more when working from a stable platform in the pocket. Even with his electric speed to escape pressure, Jackson must show the ability to consistently slice up coverages from the top of the drop. At a listed 6-3, 211 pounds, with a lean frame, scouts will question the number of hits he can take given his playing style.
The verdict: Based on his 2017 tape, I see Jackson as a much more polished passer. His release has really improved. And I think he's reading the field quickly. I would love to work with Jackson if I were an NFL coach. You don't find this type of athleticism often at the quarterback position. And once he develops, watch out. Jackson is a tremendous talent who should come off the board on Day 2, though I wouldn't be surprised if a team took him late in the first round and let him develop.
Luke Falk, Washington State Cougars
Fifth-year senior | 39 starts | Kiper's QB ranking: No. 10
The good: The tape tells us that Falk can work through full-field reads and attack opposing secondaries with precision throws and on-point ball placement. He can put some zip on the ball to target the upfield shoulder against tight coverage or take something off to expose a defender's leverage in the secondary, just as he did when exposing the Stanford secondary on a deep middle of the field throw for six (see above). When he has time to throw and scan the field, Falk can be one of the most accurate passers in the class.
The bad: The mobility concerns are real, and Falk will be asked to get the ball out with much more speed against NFL defenses. Can't sit and wait for lanes to open in the league. He must be more decisive and quicker in the pocket. Find the read and get it out. This isn't a guy who can buy considerable time with his legs. Falk went to work on the USC defense earlier this season in a high-profile matchup, then had a disastrous night in an upset loss on the road at Cal, throwing five interceptions.
The verdict: Scouts will point to Falk's inflated numbers in Mike Leach's Air Raid system at Washington State. He also doesn't have a big-time arm. As a pure pocket passer with limited mobility who could test below average at the combine, Falk looks more like an early Day 3 prospect.