ESPN senior writer Mike Sando asks league insiders to pick winners in selected games each week. Three evaluators joined the panel for Week 5. This week's selected games: Patriots-Buccaneers, Panthers-Lions, Seahawks-Rams, Packers-Cowboys and Chiefs-Texans.
New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Thursday: 8:25 p.m. ET, CBS | Point spread: NE by 6
Road teams were 5-13 on Thursday nights last season. That has flipped to 3-1 this season, counting Kansas City's opening-week victory at New England, when there was not a short week of preparation as a potential factor. Two of the three insiders expect the Patriots to make road teams 4-1 on Thursday nights this season.
"Everyone wants to jump on the bandwagon of New England fading, but Tom Brady is going to say, 'Not so fast, my friend,' and win the game," one of the insiders said.
This insider also questions how well an ultracompetitive Jameis Winston will handle a chance to outshine Brady in a prime-time matchup.
"[Winston] is going to hold it a little long and someone is going to come around that edge and strip it," this insider predicted.
Since Winston entered the NFL in 2015, Brady has the best interception percentage and Winston the worst among 19 players with at least 1,000 pass attempts.
The other insider picking New England thinks the Patriots will figure out their defensive issues over the course of the season. He also isn't yet sold on Tampa Bay's offense, calling it an up-and-down unit. The third insider said some of the same things, but he leans toward Tampa Bay winning a close game, especially if Doug Martin can boost the Bucs' ground game.
"Doug Martin can take pressure off the quarterback, who should be able to hit Mike Evans," this third insider said. "I think the matchup is between the Tampa receivers and the New England corners, and then New England's run defense against Doug Martin."
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions
Sunday: 1 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: DET by 2.5
Two of the three insiders have Detroit winning by about a touchdown in a game featuring quarterbacks selected first in their draft classes.
"I'm saying Carolina because whatever Detroit's got going on ain't going to last," one insider said. "Three non-offensive touchdowns in four games, that has to catch up with them. Carolina is battle-tested. They have been in some absolute melees and they are a physical, line-oriented team."
The Lions are tied with Jacksonville for the league lead in points off turnovers (47). They were 31st with 28 such points all last season.
"Detroit is playing extremely well on defense, and while the quarterback hasn't played as well as he normally does, they are still grinding games out," another insider said. "Ameer Abdullah being healthy gives them another dynamic."
The third insider thinks Lions QB Matthew Stafford had become a more consistent player than Panthers QB Cam Newton, making the Lions easier to trust. Newton lit up New England for three touchdown passes on Sunday. He has five TDs and five picks this season. Stafford has seven TDs and one pick.
"I'm going to have it as a more lopsided game, like 27-14 for Detroit," the third insider said. "Detroit plays 100 miles an hour to the football on defense, but I just think the passing offense of Detroit and the quarterback play will be the deciding factor."
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
Sunday: 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: LAR by 1.5
The Rams are on pace to score 568 points, which would trail only the 2013 Broncos and 2007 Patriots since the NFL adopted a 16-game schedule. None of the insiders thinks this Rams team will ultimately challenge those leaders, but all three are picking Los Angeles to win at home against an opponent the Rams have beaten even when Seattle has been heavily favored.
"This is where we will truly see where the Rams are at, because those guys can really play defense in Seattle," one of the insiders said. "Now, having said that about Seattle, they don't play as consistently as they used to. I think it's because too many guys have been paid and patted on the back for too long, and those two things take a toll."
The Rams have gone from averaging 14 points per game last season to averaging 35.5 this season. No team since at least 2001 has improved more than 13.7 points per game from one full season to the next.
There is precedent for a team with a new coach or key addition making a dramatic jump. Kansas City jumped by 13.7 points per game with coach Andy Reid's hiring in 2013. Carolina made a similar jump after drafting Cam Newton. New England did it after adding Randy Moss. New Orleans and Denver made double-digit scoring gains after adding Drew Brees (with Sean Payton) and Peyton Manning, respectively.
Though Seattle lost 9-3 at the Rams in Week 2 last season, Vegas has set the point total at 47 this time. The Seahawks' scoring has increased each week, reaching 46 against Indy last week, but Seattle could be down to its third left tackle, which seems problematic against a Rams defense that frequently lines up Robert Quinn and Aaron Donald on that side. However, Rees Odhiambo was medically cleared Wednesday.
"Your house is as strong as its foundation, and Seattle's offensive line against the Rams' defensive front is a losing battle," another insider said. "The question is, can Sean McVay craft a plan to go against Pete Carroll's defense? The Rams' offensive line appears to be better. I think with Todd Gurley getting going, it allows [Jared] Goff to do more play-action. And I think they have enough established weapons on the outside now to push Seattle."
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys
Sunday: 4:25 p.m. ET, Fox | Point spread: DAL by 2
Two of the three insiders are taking the Cowboys, but with Dallas having suffered a couple worrisome defeats, it's not a bad time to revisit what an insider said about the Cowboys heading into Week 1.
"I say Dallas is going to go for a huge fall this year," the insider said at the time.
That insider, who wasn't part of the panel picking games this week, thought a perfect storm of good things helped Dallas ride a wave in 2016, and that defensive shortcomings and a diminished offensive line would make life harder this season.
"I think the Packers will have their starting tackles back," the insider picking Green Bay said, "and if Sean Lee does not play for Dallas, it does not bode well."
The insiders picking Dallas don't sound particularly convinced. They seem to be giving the Cowboys another chance to prove they're the team that won the NFC East with a 13-3 record last season. And there is some thought that Dallas will play better against a marquee opponent in a game with a backs-against-the-wall feel.
"Dallas has to know that if they have any chance to win this year, they have to get their personality back," one of the insiders picking the Cowboys said. "They have to throw it to Cole Beasley in the weakside slot from empty, they have to throw it to the tight end on nakeds, and they have to hand the ball off so the quarterback [Dak Prescott] can do what he can do. They have to get back to basics or they won't win enough."
Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans
Sunday: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC | Point spread: KC by 1.5
Two of the three insiders are taking the Texans to win at home. The third insider also thinks there is a good chance Houston will win. The Chiefs are coming off a short week and will not have their offensive line at full strength, which could be a huge problem against J.J. Watt, Whitney Mercilus and Jadeveon Clowney.
"I think Kansas City is better, but they cannot block those guys in the pass game, and there are only so many screen plays you can run," an insider picking Houston said. "All week, Kansas City is going to be talking about, 'We have to be able to run the ball and we have to have these quick little screens that are like runs.' If any of that stuff dries up and they end up in third-and-7 or longer too much, oh my god."
The insider picking Kansas City thinks the Chiefs might be able to run the ball against the Texans, as Jacksonville did in Week 1.
Former Texans quarterbacks Brock Osweiler and Brian Hoyer combined for two touchdowns and seven interceptions in three games against the Chiefs over the past two seasons, counting playoffs. That included a 19-12 home victory in Week 2 last season despite two picks from Osweiler.
"With all the man coverage Kansas City plays, Houston's quarterback [Deshaun Watson] will run for significant yardage on scramble plays and make plays throwing the ball that way," one of the insiders said.