What is considered a bad 2017 draft for quarterbacks and offensive linemen has led to stunning jumps in salaries at those positions in free agency. Mike Glennon was the headliner at quarterback, getting a $45 million deal from the Chicago Bears. The Carolina Panthers gave left tackle Matt Kalil $31 million guaranteed, despite his playing only 118 snaps last season.
The 2018 free-agency class should prove to be better for talent, depth and salaries, and it could possibly take the total payouts of unrestricted free-agent contracts to $2 billion. This year's class has already exceeded $1.8 billion in total contracts.
There will be more of a fantasy football feel to 2018 free agency, as teams will have better quarterback options, and the first set of players from what was considered one of the best receiving draft classes -- 2014 -- will hit the market.
In fact, offense should dominate next year's free-agency landscape. Defensive options might prove to be a little tricky. We're still waiting on a first-round defender from the 2014 draft to make a Pro Bowl. This year, guards received better salaries than wide receivers, and undrafted defensive backs such as A.J. Bouye and Tony Jefferson got better deals than most of the players from the 2013 draft class who hit the market.
Next year's market will feature veteran players with expiring contracts, 2017 free agents on one-year, prove-it deals and fifth-year-option defenders who didn't get their tenders exercised or couldn't land long-term deals with their teams.
Here are the trendsetters for 2018:
Quarterbacks
Expect two or three quarterbacks to top Andrew Luck's six-year deal in Indianapolis, pushing the QB value to more than $25 million a year. Kirk Cousins isn't expected to be franchised for a third consecutive year, because the franchise tag will be around $34.5 million. Unless the Washington Redskins re-sign him to a long-term deal, he has a great chance of going to the San Francisco 49ers and reuniting with coach Kyle Shanahan.
If the Patriots don't trade Jimmy Garoppolo, he will be a major player in free agency in 2018.
Also, Matthew Stafford's contract is up in Detroit after this season. He will be 30 years old and will clearly command an annual $25 million (or more) contract. It is unlikely the Lions will let him hit free agency.
Then there's Derek Carr. The Oakland Raiders will try to sign him this year, but if not, they can hold him off the market for 2018 and then maybe franchise him for 2019. But for a team moving to Las Vegas, you figure the Raiders will roll the dice and get a deal done, because his contract value will only go up the longer he isn't signed.
The other interesting QB is Drew Brees, who signed a unique extension last year that will make him a free agent in 2018. He will be 39 years old, but he hasn't shown many signs of decline.
Running backs
This might be the most interesting position. Le'Veon Bell (Pittsburgh) will be coming off playing on a $12.12 million franchise tag. Devonta Freeman (Atlanta) is the next young back who is due for a big payday.
The market for running backs continues to be a tough one. Adrian Peterson ($14 million a year) and Jamaal Charles ($9 million) were the highest-paid running backs in 2016, and both were released. That leaves LeSean McCoy (Buffalo) as the highest-paid running back at $8 million a year.
No back topped $5 million a year in this current free-agent market. Bell and Freeman should establish whether the high-end running back market will lean more toward the range of $8 million to $12 million a year.
Wide receivers
Allen Robinson (Jacksonville) and Jarvis Landry (Miami) were each drafted toward the bottom of the second round in 2014 and have been to the Pro Bowl in each of their first two seasons. To retain both next year, the Jaguars and Dolphins might have to pay each as if they're No. 1 receivers. That could cost $14 million a year (or more), or the teams might have to use the franchise tag on each to prevent them from hitting the market.
A sleeper in the group is Davante Adams (Green Bay), who played at a Pro Bowl level last season. He will be only 25.
The 2014 draft had incredible receiving talent in the first round. Sammy Watkins (Buffalo), Mike Evans (Tampa Bay), Odell Beckham Jr. (New York Giants), Brandin Cooks (New England) and Kelvin Benjamin (Carolina) are all expected to get their fifth-year options exercised unless they can get extensions.
When Antonio Brown (Pittsburgh) signed his five-year deal this month, it pushed the receiving market to the range of $17 million a year. One or two of the first-round receivers mentioned above could top Brown's deal.
Offensive tackles
Charles Leno (Chicago), who was a seventh-round pick in 2014, should expect a big jump in salary after a nice 2016 season. If Luke Joeckel (Seattle) starts at left tackle with his new team and succeeds, he could see a nice payday.
Older tackles such as Donald Penn (Oakland) and Nate Solder (New England) will be around. Morgan Moses (Washington) will be available at age 27. Still, there aren't a lot of big-ticket tackles available.
Guards
Kevin Zeitler's five-year deal with the Cleveland Browns sent shock waves throughout the league, as terms of his deal pushed the guard market to $12 million annually. Trai Turner (Carolina) could take that number to a higher level in 2018.
Gabe Jackson (Oakland) was a Pro Bowl alternate and will have great value at an estimated $8 million a year or more. Zach Fulton (Kansas City) will draw considerable interest.
Centers
The market for the center position has been consistent for two years. Rodney Hudson got $8.9 million a year to go to Oakland in 2015, and Alex Mack went to Atlanta for $9 million a year in 2016. Both were difference-makers.
A great batch of centers has come out of the 2014 draft, including Justin Britt (Seattle), Corey Linsley (Green Bay), Brandon Linder (Jacksonville), Spencer Long (Washington), Weston Richburg (Giants), Travis Swanson (Detroit) and Russell Bodine (Cincinnati).
If one of them hits the free-agent market, he could top the mark of $9 million per year. The key will be for each of their teams to re-sign them for between $6 million and $9 million a year and not break the bank.
Tight ends
A couple of recent bad tight end drafts leaves this position looking thin. Jimmy Graham (Seattle) is finishing his four-year contract, but it's not out of the question for the Seahawks to give him an extension. Antonio Gates (Chargers) could be available at age 38. Jason Witten (Dallas) went off the board on Tuesday when he signed a four-year extension.
Instead of 2018 free agents at this position, teams will likely focus more on this year's draft, which is filled with top tight end prospects.
Defensive tackles
Dontari Poe (Atlanta) and Bennie Logan (Kansas City) signed one-year, $8 million contracts this year. We'll see if Johnathan Hankins (Giants) is added to the list of available 2018 free agents if he's forced to sign a one-year contract with New York or another team.
The Panthers face a conundrum, as both of their starting defensive tackles could hit the market. Kawann Short will play on the franchise tag in 2017, and Star Lotulelei is set to be a free agent next March. Minnesota will have a big decision to face with Sharrif Floyd, who has flashed some talent. The Vikings have a lot of money committed to defenders.
Defensive ends
One of the defensive ends from the 2014 draft needs to have a good year to prop up the prospects. DeMarcus Lawrence (Dallas), Aaron Lynch (San Francisco) and DaQuan Jones (Tennessee) are a few players to watch, but they're not likely to move the market.
New England took a one-year flier on Kony Ealy in a trade with Carolina. The Patriots also have a decision to make on veteran Rob Ninkovich. Sheldon Richardson (Jets) has 18 career sacks but is an enigma.
Linebackers
There might not be any market moves in a group that includes Preston Brown (Buffalo), Christian Kirksey (Cleveland), Telvin Smith (Jacksonville), Anthony Hitchens (Dallas) and Devon Kennard (Giants).
Vontaze Burfict (Cincinnati) will be an interesting case. The former undrafted free agent will hit the market at age 27 after the extension he signed in 2014 ends. He has started only 12 games the past two seasons, but he has three career 100-tackle seasons.
Melvin Ingram (Chargers) will likely get a long-term deal after playing on the franchise tag in 2017.
Cornerbacks
Trumaine Johnson (Rams) will be coming off two franchise tags and should set a pretty high market for cornerbacks. There are some aging corners with market value -- Vontae Davis (Indianapolis), Jason McCourty (Tennessee) and Brent Grimes (Tampa Bay).
Bashaud Breeland (Washington), E.J. Gaines (Rams), TJ Carrie (Raiders) and Aaron Colvin (Jacksonville) will all be coming off their rookie deals by next year. As we saw with A.J. Bouye, a good fourth season could vault these players' value.
Safeties
The top safety market is now at the level of $12 million a year. Kam Chancellor (Seattle) will be a free agent in 2018, but it might be hard for him to make that jump in pay; he's making $7 million a year. Morgan Burnett (Green Bay) will be available. The young market for safeties has not yet been established.