There's no shortage of Super Bowl predictions -- unless you're looking for unfiltered analysis from coaches who have devised a game plan for the Atlanta Falcons and New England Patriots.
I've learned plenty about the matchup this week from candid conversations with three coordinators, one head coach and a defensive assistant. Here are the game predictions and insights directly from those in the know.
Note: Four of the five coaches faced the Falcons and/or Patriots this season, while the fifth has big-game experience against the Patriots and has studied both teams since his own season ended.
1. Defensive coordinator
In big games, I always begin with the defensive side. Atlanta's defense has been playing well because it has been getting production out of its edge rushers, but when you look at New England, the Patriots don't worry about the outside guys. They will let those guys run by, and Tom [Brady] will just step up in the pocket.
If you remember when New York beat New England [in Super Bowl 42], sure, [Michael] Strahan and Osi [Umenyiora] had great games, but [Justin] Tuck was really the guy who gave the Patriots issues inside. If Tom can't step up because there are issues inside, then it becomes more challenging for them. But in the Pittsburgh-New England game last week, I kept looking at the center-guard-guard battle and those guys stayed stout the whole time. They protect the spot. If Tom can sit on that spot long enough, some of those guys will get open.
I think New England will be able to do a little bit more against Atlanta's defense than Atlanta will do against New England's defense, although I do think Atlanta will move the ball. Atlanta has enough headaches with those backs and Julio [Jones] that it will give the Patriots some issues. It will come down to how well the Patriots play in the red zone.
The pick: Patriots
2. Offensive coordinator
I just wonder what [Bill] Belichick is going to try to stop. Obviously, Julio is the guy who you say, 'OK, beat us with someone else.' But if you look at the Patriots this season, they had some issues against receiving backs like the guy from Seattle [C.J. Prosise] and 25 from Cincinnati [Giovani Bernard]. Atlanta's backs are in the same vein. They can do the exact kind of thing against those guys, and they did that against Denver, too.
The Falcons just have so many guys. They have [Mohamed] Sanu, too. All those guys are really good players. So, take away Julio and I'm sure they are going, 'Fine, double him and we have all these other guys who can play.'
The defenses are probably going to be a wash. I was shocked New England was the No. 1-scoring defense. There are lots more defenses I'd rather not play. I don't have as much respect for the secondary of New England as most people do. [Malcolm] Butler is a good player, obviously, but the other guys may struggle with Atlanta a little bit. I've heard people talk about some of the Patriots' other guys really coming on, but I didn't have the same feel.
On the other side, Brady should be able to go after 34 [Brian Poole]. That guy can get turned around a little bit. And then 23 [Robert Alford] is a penalty waiting to happen. You could give him a penalty every play for how much he grabs and holds. Another thing to watch for is how New England could keep [Dwight] Freeney and Vic [Beasley] off the field. Atlanta only plays Freeney on third down and known passing situations. Beasley plays in the nickel. I watched the Green Bay game and I'm sure Beasley was out there almost every play, but you can take those guys off the field depending on what personnel you play.
For me, it comes down to just how Atlanta is so well-rounded offensively. The Falcons can run the ball, they have two great running backs -- those backs can go out and catch passes -- they have a great receiving corps, and then Matt Ryan is playing about as good as you can play right now.
The pick: Falcons
3. Head coach
It is hard for me to ever go against New England and here is why. The Patriots' defense is really shutting down the run, but when you pass it against them, they are dropping so many guys consistently that it is hard to get over the top. If you get impatient, that is where you can turn the ball over.
Everybody talks about Julio, Julio, Julio, but with what New England is doing, it is really hard to get behind the Patriots' secondary. My biggest fear for the Falcons is, if they can't run the ball and they start throwing it, can they be patient enough to understand you are probably not going to get Julio Jones over the top? Can you stay patient and just throw short?
Now, when you throw short, it is still tough because there are eight guys dropping more times than not. With the coverages New England is playing right now, Atlanta is not going to get those favorable coverage matchups with its backs.
Offensively, for New England, it just hasn't changed. Tom is efficient. His guys know exactly what to do. They are protecting him better than I have seen in a long time. You have to have a very talented defense to match up well against them. You have to make Tom hold onto the ball long enough so your pass rush can get there, which is hard to do. You had better have a great scheme as far as being able to take away his first read. And if you are not doing that, then it is going to be a b---- because he won't get touched, and if he doesn't get touched, as the game goes on, it is only going to get worse.
Special teams will probably be a bigger factor than what anybody will give it credit for. Every game New England almost screwed up was because of a special-teams turnover or miscue. Atlanta had issues against Seattle in the return game, and now it faces [Dion] Lewis from New England. I see this game being close in some capacity, and if it is close in the fourth quarter, can the Falcons make the one or two or three plays they need to swing the game?
The pick: Patriots
4. Defensive assistant coach
It's a tough matchup between Matt Ryan and the combination of Bill Belichick with [defensive coordinator] Matt Patricia and what New England has been able to do against the opponent's No. 1 offensive threat. I could see conceivably where Julio Jones doesn't have a very big impact on the game directly, but then you are into: At what cost? That is an interesting chess match.
The Falcons' offense takes advantage of undisciplined defensive players with the way they tie in their running game with their play-action game. They also like to use stack, bunch and contracted formations, often using misdirection with the tight ends behind the line of scrimmage. I've seen them cause disarray on man-coverage teams, expressly working against the undisciplined eyes of defenders. But that is exactly what New England is good at: not being undisciplined.
Atlanta on defense is going to say, 'This is exactly what we are doing and we will be faster to our technique than you are to yours, Tom Brady.' New England on defense is going to say, 'We are going to play multiple defensive coverages and schemes and take away Julio Jones, and on video you are not going to see undisciplined eyes and keys.'
I like New England's offense against Atlanta's defense for those reasons. You know how Atlanta's defense plays exactly. The Falcons just line up and play, like Seattle does. Can Atlanta's defense do to New England what Seattle's defense did to Denver in the Super Bowl a few years back, when there was unexpectedly a lot of crowd noise that Denver had to deal with? It can be done, but it is not very likely. Has Atlanta in one calendar year recreated Seattle's defense?
I have this uneasy feeling that the ball is going to move fairly freely against Atlanta's defense in the short passing game with the Falcons' lack of ability to rush in base and the quick release times of Brady. Atlanta has beaten Drew Brees, Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers in three consecutive games. Those are three of my Tier 1 guys, but all those games were in the Georgia Dome, which gave the Falcons' defense the huge advantage of pass rush get-off with crowd noise.
New England can push down the gas pedal on offense any time it wants. The Patriots can do tempo whenever they want. So, let's imagine it takes 30 points to win. I like New England. Let's imagine it takes 21. I like New England.
The pick: Patriots
5. Offensive coordinator
New England has way more guys who have already been there, and I think it matters. However, Atlanta is the perfect challenger that has never been there before because the Falcons can score so many points and they have so much positive mojo going. They are the best challenger that has never been there. Their quarterback's mind is wired right, they have a big-time receiver that New England is going to have to prepare for, and I think they can run the ball decently.
If Atlanta can run the ball a little bit, look out, New England could have problems. There is not going to be a lot of pressure on the quarterback [Ryan] because New England does not bring a lot of guys. Ryan is going to have time to do his thing. It's just, can the combination coverages and who is getting doubled slow Matt Ryan up to where he has to scramble a lot? And then, can he make that play on the move late, and will his receivers scramble with him and get open on the run?
New England's defense is better than anyone thinks. There is not really a player over there where you say, 'Oh my gosh,' but the Patriots play so well together and they get so much out of their offense with the guys that they got. When you play New England, you just feel like every time you are not on the field, the next time you are out there, you are seven more points down. I mean, the flea-flicker out of three wides last week [against Pittsburgh]? Come on, nobody does that. There is a pressure that New England creates on you that Atlanta creates, too, because the Falcons score so much. It's a really nice matchup.
I think New England wins. Atlanta doesn't do enough on defense to confuse the quarterback. The Falcons are in the same spots all the time. Their pass-rushers -- they are good, they got better -- but it's not like they can get home with four all the time. And if the Atlanta offense stumbles, the defense's confidence is going to get rattled.
The pick: Patriots