The clock is ticking fast for NFL teams looking to help themselves before the 2016 trade deadline passes on Tuesday afternoon.
The Seattle Seahawks' championship hopes could hinge on their ability to upgrade at offensive tackle. The Green Bay Packers could use help at receiver and/or tight end. Jobs could be on the line for the New York Giants if the team cannot upgrade its rushing attack. Other teams in varying stages of development also have reason to make a move.
Vernon Davis, Mark Barron, Jonathan Casillas and Aqib Talib switched teams near the deadline in recent years, with varying results. Trades are relatively infrequent (see chart below), but thinking through them is still a worthwhile exercise. I've proposed six somewhat realistic ones here, plus one straight from fantasyland (even though it makes sense for both teams).
Deadline deals that make sense
1. Seattle Seahawks acquire LT Joe Thomas from the Cleveland Browns for a second-round pick.
The Seahawks started George Fant at left tackle during their 25-20 defeat at New Orleans. "1st start since junior high" scrolled across the screen as Fox introduced him, as if viewers needed a reminder how far the team has fallen at left tackle since Walter Jones manned the position. The question is, can Seattle afford to play undrafted prospects at both tackle spots while quarterback Russell Wilson lacks the mobility to elude trouble?
This team has overcome brutal offensive stretches to finish fast in recent seasons, but a healthy and supremely athletic Wilson was always a key component. Wilson is still wearing a brace on his injured left knee. He is averaging 6.3 yards rushing per game after never averaging fewer than 30.6 in a season previously. He needs more help than he has ever needed before.
With little conventional ground game to lean on, Seattle constantly finds itself going backward on offense. The Seahawks are averaging 9.6 plays per game with more than 10 yards needed for a first down. That is the highest figure in the league and would be the highest for a Carroll-coached team in Seattle even though Wilson is getting rid of the ball quicker than ever (his sack rate is down to 4.6 percent from 7.8 percent for his career previously).
Adding Thomas would be the least risky trade Seattle has ever made, the opposite of adding Percy Harvin a few years back. The Browns have said they aren't moving him, but what else are they going to say? Cleveland could go 0-16 this season even with Thomas dominating. For Seattle, this could be the one move enabling the team to win big with Wilson at less than 100 percent. It also might give Wilson his best shot at avoiding another serious injury.
Minnesota's championship hopes also could ride on their offensive line, but could the Vikings justify giving up even more draft capital after spending big for Sam Bradford?
2. Green Bay Packers acquire WR Torrey Smith from the San Francisco 49ers for a fifth-round pick.
Green Bay's offense could use speed on the perimeter whether or not Jordy Nelson rounds into previous form. The Packers aren't going to play the Falcons' porous defense every week, after all. They have to proceed as though the Denver, Seattle and Minnesota defenses are blocking their path to winning a second championship with Aaron Rodgers behind center.
The Packers always take the long-range view. They like young receivers Trevor Davis and Geronimo Allison. They love their draft choices and usually want more of them, not fewer. But we're talking about deals teams should make, not ones destined to happen (and this one will never, ever happen under the Packers' current leadership).
Smith possesses the speed Green Bay needs. He would fit better in the Packers' offense than he currently fits in Chip Kelly's system. "Smith is not consistent, but he can stretch the field," a former general manager said. The question here is whether San Francisco can afford to subtract a 27-year-old established talent from its roster for a draft choice that could carry less than a 50-50 shot at helping the team down the line.
Going after a versatile tight end -- say, the Jaguars' Marcedes Lewis -- could also help the Packers' offense regain some of the scheme diversity it needs.
3. The Browns, Tennessee Titans or Philadelphia Eagles acquire WR Alshon Jeffery from the Chicago Bears for a third-round pick
If the Bears' current regime isn't interested in rewarding an inconsistent player inherited from the previous leadership, why not deal Jeffery now? They could wait to collect a high compensatory choice in 2018 or they could try for a 2017 pick in about the same round.
The Titans are suddenly back in the AFC South race and badly need a playmaking receiver to balance out their offense and maximize second-year quarterback Marcus Mariota. Tennessee holds an additional third-round pick in 2017 and could use the remaining games this season to determine what Jeffery might be worth longer term.
"Look at what those big receivers are doing for Derek Carr in Oakland," a longtime evaluator said. "Tennessee needs that guy."
The Browns are also flush with picks in 2017 -- two firsts, two seconds, three fourths and three fifths -- and could add a young, established talent at a reasonable cost.
The Eagles might be the No. 1 team in the market for a wideout and their GM, Howie Roseman, hasn't been afraid to move aggressively.
And if Jeffery bolted from one of these teams for riches in the 2017 free agency period, the team he left could recoup a compensatory selection in 2018.
One question is whether any team will value Jeffery highly enough based on his one-dimensional skill set. Jeffery is a jump-ball receiver, not a refined route runner. There's another complication. Rules prevent Jeffery and other franchise players from negotiating new contracts until after the season. Teams generally want to strike long-term deals when acquiring front-line talent at significant prices.
"The Titans are determined to get younger and could be looking for someone to groom along with their young quarterback, as opposed to adding a player like Jeffery who has been through the ringer a little bit," one personnel evaluator said.
4. San Diego Chargers acquire WR Andrew Hawkins from the Browns for a late-round pick.
Hawkins is a 30-year-old slot receiver in the third year of a four-year deal, with about 80 percent of his $13.6 million deal having been paid out already. That makes him an appealing addition from the acquiring team's standpoint.
Adding another weapon for Philip Rivers could help San Diego keep pace in the competitive AFC West after injuries hurt the Chargers at wide receiver. Hawkins caught a pair of touchdown passes against the New York Jets on Sunday. Imagine what he could do with Rivers throwing short passes to him in a more advanced passing game.
The Browns could justify the deal if they felt as though Hawkins could be the odd man out once rookie Corey Coleman returns from injury. Hawkins' history with Browns head coach Hue Jackson could make Cleveland less excited about making the deal, but Coleman is a young player who needs the reps.
5. Oakland Raiders acquire DT Brandon Williams from the Baltimore Ravens for a third-round pick.
The Ravens are getting very good production from undrafted defensive lineman Michael Pierce, which could give them flexibility to get value for Williams, who is signed only through 2016. Baltimore could get a decent compensatory pick in 2018 if Williams were to leave in free agency. Why not try to get something in the 2017 draft instead?
New York Jets defensive lineman Sheldon Richardson could also be a logical target for teams such as the Raiders and Indianapolis Colts, but the Jets have reason to hold onto him or set a high price. Richardson's status as the 13th pick in the 2013 draft makes his option-year salary lower than it would be for a player selected among the top 10. The Jets could let him play out his contract and then let him go for a compensatory choice.
6. Detroit Lions acquire CB Logan Ryan or someone else from the New England Patriots.
Lions GM Bob Quinn came to Detroit from New England and is trying to infuse some of the Patriots' culture. The Lions are perceived to be further along than the Titans, another team run by a Patriots alumnus. They might be more apt to seek established talent.
Ryan is one of several Patriots players in line for a new contract after this season. New England already unloaded Chandler Jones and might have to make choices at other positions as well. Ryan or another relatively young veteran player could become expendable.
Carolina also needs cornerback help, but one longtime executive predicted the Panthers would be "too proud" to make a move that would be perceived as admitting error on the Josh Norman front.
One trade from fantasyland
1. Titans acquire WR Sterling Shepard from the New York Giants for RB Derrick Henry.
Shepard and Henry were both second-round picks in 2016. The Titans selected Henry before they could be sure DeMarco Murray would revitalize his career in spectacular fashion. The Giants selected Shepard when they thought they'd be OK with Rashad Jennings as their featured back.
And now? The Giants' running game is so bad that it could jeopardize their season and potentially even bring down GM Jerry Reese. They could part with Shepard and still have one of the game's very best No. 1 receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. Meanwhile, the Titans are flush at running back, but need receiving help for their young franchise quarterback.
This one isn't going to happen. The other ones probably will not happen either.
"It's worth reminding people how hard it is to pull off a trade in the middle of the season," a league insider said. "Teams trust what is currently on the roster more than what may be out there and the reasons players may be available can leave them apprehensive. Teams need to have the necessary cap room. They need to know they can work out an extension. There are so many moving parts."