It's refreshing in this world of nervous, reactive NFL front offices to see a team operate as fearlessly and successfully as the Denver Broncos have with John Elway as general manager.
Watching projected starting quarterback Brock Osweiler leave for the Houston Texans on the first day of free agency Wednesday was the latest headline-grabbing development reflecting the security Elway enjoys as a Broncos legend with Super Bowl rings on his fingers. It should come as no surprise the Broncos refused to keep their projected starting quarterback at all costs.
Elway cast aside Tim Tebow amid an outcry. Elway fired coach John Fox following four consecutive AFC West titles. Elway forced Peyton Manning into an awkward contract renegotiation, one of several moves informing Manning he was about to live life on the team's terms. Every one of these moves seemed risky from a public-relations standpoint. Every one worked out well for the organization.
The Broncos' decision to bench Osweiler for the playoffs complicated their negotiations with him, but in the end, Denver simply wasn't willing to pay keep-him-off-the-market money for a quarterback who had not played especially well when given an opportunity to start. Denver could be taking less risk than the Texans are taking even though most would regard the Broncos' situation -- no starter on the roster! -- as the ultimate NFL horror.
Osweiler finished the 2015 season with an 86.4 passer rating (25th) and a 59.6 Total QBR score (24th). Texans starter Brian Hoyer was actually better in both categories, but because he bombed in the playoffs against Kansas City, keeping him in place as the starter became politically untenable for Texans leadership. The Texans previously passed up two chances to draft Derek Carr, purportedly because David Carr's struggles as a Texan made selecting Derek Carr politically untenable. Houston previously replaced Ryan Fitzpatrick with Hoyer, a lateral move at best.
Hoyer completed 60.7 percent of his passes with 19 touchdowns and seven picks last season. His passer rating (91.4) and QBR (59.6) were right at the league averages for the NFL's 35 qualifying quarterbacks.
The Texans and Broncos have proven they can win without top-tier quarterback play. Both ranked among the top five in defensive expected points added (EPA). The Texans' defense and soft AFC South schedule has allowed them to finish 9-7 each of the past two seasons. They are surprisingly one of nine teams to post winning records in 2014 and 2015. The Broncos' defense carried Denver to much greater heights in spite of statistically poor-to-average quarterback play.
As noted in another column recently, the Broncos allowed between 10-18 points to their playoff opponents during this past postseason. Just about everyone wins, regardless of the quarterback, when the scoring bar is set so low. Tebow, John Skelton and Gus Frerotte were a combined 16-0 over the past decade when their teams allowed 10-18 points. The Texans are betting that Osweiler can become good enough for Houston to win even if the defense falls off. He might be able to do that, but the evidence is lacking. The Broncos were willing to take their chances with another quarterback.
They could still wind up paying good money for one, particularly if they acquire Colin Kaepernick.
The reality regarding Osweiler is that coaches and evaluators around the league aren't all that excited about him on the whole. Some questioned his athleticism and overall quickness even before he ran directly into defenders on multiple bootlegs. I suspect most will place him in the third tier of our next "Quarterback Tiers" project. That is hardly a kiss of death for a player with only seven starts, but the list of young veterans falling into that range last offseason remains plastered with question marks. Nick Foles, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick, Ryan Tannehill, Derek Carr, Teddy Bridgewater and Sam Bradford were the youngest quarterbacks voted into the third tier of our 2015 survey. None has proven he can win consistently without a strong defense.
Osweiler might wind up being better than Hoyer and some of those third-tier quarterbacks. If Osweiler is bound for stardom and the Texans could see it better from afar than Elway could see it from up close, good for them. But let the record show that Houston was the team too fearful to draft Derek Carr or stay the course with serviceable, low-priced veterans such as Fitzpatrick and Hoyer.
Elway operates in the absence of such worries. He can proceed knowing he has the higher batting average and the confidence to make moves for the right reasons, not out of desperation.