The Denver Broncos could have won the Super Bowl this past season with just about any credible journeyman NFL quarterback. That's not a knock on Peyton Manning or his brilliant career. But Denver's defense was incredible. Every Broncos opponent in the postseason scored between 10 and 18 points, all but assuring victory for Denver.
The math is simple and striking. NFL teams won 82.5 percent of their games over the past decade when keeping opponents in that 10-18 scoring window. Tarvaris Jackson has a 10-1 starting record when his teams give up that many points. The record over the past decade is 17-2 for Vince Young, 16-2 for Matt Schaub and 14-1 for Ryan Tannehill. Tim Tebow, John Skelton and Gus Frerotte are a combined 16-0 in these games over the 10-year period in question. (Manning, for what it's worth, is 44-1.)
The Broncos could win many, many games with Brock Osweiler at quarterback if their defense continues to play as well as it played during the most recent postseason. That level of defensive dominance typically is not sustainable, however, and that means Denver probably will need more from its offense to remain a contender. Osweiler might yet leave the Broncos in free agency, but for now, he is the top candidate to lead an offense that has fallen off a statistical cliff.
Has Osweiler shown enough through seven starts to assure he can bridge the gap between this anticipated defensive regression and continued championship contention? The Broncos have already answered that question.
The Broncos have been in an awkward spot politically while waiting for Manning to announce his plans. Announcing a long-term deal with Osweiler while Manning was mulling his future could have come off as disrespectful. Still, if the Broncos loved Osweiler, they could have done more to keep him from hitting the market -- including leaving him in the lineup through the playoffs.
Now, with the franchise tag allocated for Von Miller, Denver no longer controls whether its projected starting quarterback returns.
That is somewhat remarkable in a league populated with teams that routinely embrace the status quo in fear of the unknown. The Philadelphia Eagles might or might not be one of those teams, but they just paid $18 million a year for Sam Bradford, who ranked 33rd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks in Total QBR last season. Perhaps even more damning, Bradford ranks 27th out of 29 qualifiers since entering the league in 2010. Only Mark Sanchez and Chad Henne rank lower on that list. Meanwhile, Washington is set to pay Kirk Cousins nearly $20 million as a franchise player after one productive season.
For entertainment purposes, consider the chart below showing statistics for Osweiler, Bradford and Cousins through their first seven NFL starts. There's simply no way to know from the numbers alone what Osweiler might become. The Broncos have had Osweiler in their building and on their practice field for four seasons, so they know enough about him to make a reasonably informed decision.
Denver's willingness to wait on Osweiler says something about the Broncos and about Osweiler. General manager John Elway isn't one to panic and overpay. He is secure enough in his job to risk letting his unproven starting quarterback walk out the door in the absence of an established alternative. Elway likewise did not blink when trading away Tim Tebow following a season featuring a playoff victory. Bottom line: If the Broncos were convinced Osweiler had a bright future, surely they would pay him enough to stick around. They still might.
The Broncos have to know they'll need better play from their quarterback specifically and their offense generally to remain a championship contender. They simply cannot bank on their defense remaining great. They were one of 12 teams with a QBR south of 55 last season and the only one with a winning record.
Miller's salary has already jumped significantly. Denver could have a hard time keeping Malik Jackson, a dominant nickel pass-rusher and key member of the Broncos' pass-rush rotation. If Jackson stays, his salary will consume valuable resources. If he leaves, the Broncos' pass-rush might go from great to just good, especially if DeMarcus Ware leaves or declines. Teams that win Super Bowls tend to have deep and formidable pass-rush rotations. That was certainly the key for Denver.
As contract challenges affect their formula, and the Broncos' defense inevitably regresses from great to simply very good, the offense will have to make a jump. Denver averaged 1.08 points per drive during the playoffs, which ranked 96th out of 120 playoff offenses over the past decade. The unit was 108th out of 120 in offensive expected points added per game (the other 19 teams ranked worse than No. 100 were one-and-done).
Problems on the offensive line were arguably the No. 1 reason the Broncos' offense struggled in 2015. If Elway and coach Gary Kubiak subscribe to this thinking, they might be figuring that upgrading the line to at least a baseline level of proficiency could be enough for Denver to contend as a run-oriented team that plays good defense. If that is the formula, then why pay big money for Osweiler or another quarterback who might not be able to win outside that context? It's a question some teams are afraid to ask, but one the Broncos could be in position to embrace based on all they have going for them in the bigger picture.