In every article this season, we've focused solely on point spreads when attempting to pinpoint NFL betting value each week. However, there are other bet types that sharp bettors can take advantage of en route to a profitable NFL season. In this week's article, we will examine totals (also known as over/unders) instead of point spreads to find undervalued lines among the slate of Week 12 games.
With apologies to serious bettors for the quick explainer, "totals" are wagers based on the total amount of points scored in a single game as opposed to betting on a specific team. For example, last week's "Monday Night Football" game between the New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers closed with a total of 46.5 at Pinnacle. The game finished with a final score of 24-20, meaning 44 points were scored. Anyone who made a total bet of under 46.5 points would have won that wager, while anyone on the over would have a loser.
For more information regarding totals, as well as all other bet types, make sure to check out ESPN Insider's sports betting glossary.
As we steamroll to the end of November, below-freezing temperatures will become more and more common in cold-weather cities, which could have an effect on games going over or under closing totals. However, how will these games be affected? Do cold temperatures lead to less scoring and games going under the total or is this simply another mainstream myth that sharp bettors can exploit to find value?
There are currently a handful of Week 12 games forecasted to kick off with temperatures of 32 degrees (Fahrenheit) or lower. As a result, I used our Bet Labs data analysis software to determine how we can take advantage of the expected cold weather this weekend.
To start, I used Bet Labs' "Temperature" filter to examine all NFL games with temperatures of 32 degrees or below at kickoff. In these matchups, 56.9 percent of games actually went over the total, indicating there are potential market overreactions to cold-weather games. The table below summarizes the results of the analysis: NFL games with a kickoff temperature of 32 degrees or below, since 2004.
To analyze this further, I added the "Closing Total" filter to isolate only games that closed with lower totals. This improved results even further, pushing the win rate for betting overs to an impressive 60.8 percent and a profit of plus-24.62 units.
Why does this work?
The analysis above identifies a clear overreaction in the betting market when games are played in below-freezing temperatures. There is an assumption among fans and analysts that cold weather leads to lower scoring. Oddsmakers expect an influx of public money on unders in these games and react by dropping totals even lower.
In fact, by examining only games with totals of 46 (meaning the games that are "expected" to be lower scoring) and below, we see clear value in betting overs in these situations.
Week 12 system matchups
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (Over 41)
With an expected temperature of 29 degrees, this game clearly fits our analysis above. Furthermore, there is currently a 50 percent chance of snow and high winds, so this total may drop even further as public money jumps on the under and oddsmakers adjust their numbers.
San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (Over 41)
Eight of Kansas City's 10 games have gone under the total this season, including last week's nationally televised matchup against Denver. Not only does this game fit our Week 12 betting system, but also offers contrarian value in taking the over based on Sunday's Chiefs-Broncos final score.
Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (TBD)
This game is currently off the board as oddsmakers wait for Minnesota to name a starting quarterback. However, with Aaron Rodgers already ruled out for Green Bay, this game could fit our system once sportsbooks open lines for this matchup. Be sure to check back at ESPN Insider's NFL PickCenter for updated lines throughout the week.