- Close
NFL draft analyst- Matt Miller is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation's top pro prospects. A Missouri native, Matt joined ESPN in 2021 and also contributes to SportsCenter, NFL Live and ESPN Radio. Prior to joining ESPN, Matt spent 11 years as a senior draft analyst at Bleacher Report.
- Close
NFL draft analyst- Jordan Reid is an NFL draft analyst for ESPN, providing in-depth scouting on the nation's top pro prospects. Jordan joined ESPN in 2021 and also contributes to SportsCenter and ESPN Radio. He played quarterback at North Carolina Central University and then went on to coach there from 2014-18.
It has been a wild week of NFL free agency, including big-money signings, intriguing trades, cap-saving cuts and roster retooling. But what do the moves mean for the 2024 NFL draft, which is under six weeks away? Have signings and trades altered Round 1 projections? Are there any larger leaguewide trends that could inform what happens at the draft? Can we glean anything from how particular position groups are getting paid and pursued?
NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid read the tea leaves and came away with seven big draft-related takeaways from free agency, from how certain teams might approach the first round -- could QB-needy teams move up? -- to which positions might be heavily (or not-so-heavily) targeted on April 25. What have we learned about how teams view the draft class and plan to navigate it? And which teams could be really interesting to watch on draft night given moves made this week? Let's begin with what free agency tells us about how the quarterback picks could play out.
What free agency means for:
QB | WR | RB | G/C | DT | S
QB-needy teams picking in the teens are going in with backup plans ... because anything could happen.
Reid: It's always important to note which QB-needy teams target bridge options early in free agency. They are often the ones that are also keeping an eye on the draft class for answers. This year, we saw the Vikings sign Sam Darnold to a one-year deal after losing Kirk Cousins, the Raiders bring in Gardner Minshew on a two-year contract and the Patriots sign Jacoby Brissett for one year after trading Mac Jones. Marcus Mariota (one-year deal) is currently holding it down for the Commanders after they dealt Sam Howell, too.
We already know Chicago -- which still hasn't made a Justin Fields move -- Washington and New England could draft quarterbacks in the top three picks, but the rest of this bunch is really interesting. They all showed urgency in adding competent backup options who could potentially go into the 2024 season as QB1 but aren't necessarily perfect choices. To me, those deals for high-level No. 2 passers are clear indicators that those teams will be looking for long-term solutions under center at the draft.
It gets tricky because we're assuming three QBs could be off the board in the first three picks (likely USC's Caleb Williams, LSU's Jayden Daniels and North Carolina's Drake Maye). Will someone trade up for Michigan's J.J. McCarthy? The Giants recently signed Drew Lock (another one-year deal) to compete with Daniel Jones, but neither signal-caller is likely in the long-term picture for that franchise, which means New York could also be in the QB hunt. The point is, all of these teams might be targeting a quarterback, but the supply might not meet the demand after pick No. 3. So these teams are angling to have fallback plans if they don't get the guy they want in Round 1 or even Round 2.
Watch for the trade-up talk to start circling Minnesota and Denver for the next month.
Miller: With Cousins in Atlanta and Russell Wilson in Pittsburgh, the Vikings (No. 11) and Broncos (No. 12) are trade-up candidates. There is considerable buzz about Minnesota trying to move into the top five to secure a quarterback such as McCarthy or potentially Maye/Daniels if either falls past New England. Friday saw the Vikings make a move to add an additional first-round selection (No. 23) from the Texans -- in exchange for 2024 second- and sixth-round picks, plus a 2025 second-rounder. With two first-round picks, the Vikings now own the draft capital to fly up the board for a quarterback. The latest leaguewide rumor has the Vikings trading to No. 4 overall, where the Cardinals are in a sweet spot to trade out with a quarterback-needy team.
The Broncos, on the other hand, are in a weird spot at No. 12 and with no second-round pick to leverage in a move up. The competition for QB4 in this draft is heating up after Minnesota acquired that second first-rounder. The Broncos simply can't compete with the Vikings' draft capital in the 2024 class and would have to blow away a team with 2025 and/or 2026 draft picks in any attempt to trade up. The better move for Denver may be trying to trade down the board to recoup draft picks and select Oregon's Bo Nix somewhere lower in the order. It's that, or roll with Jarrett Stidham and a yet-to-be-added veteran in 2024.
Receivers are going to fly off the board because only a few reached free agency -- and this class is really good.
Reid: A list of the top free agent receivers would have included Tee Higgins, Michael Pittman Jr. and Mike Evans a few weeks ago. But none of the three made it to the open market, getting tagged or re-signed before the negotiating window opened Monday. Outside of Calvin Ridley, who signed a lucrative deal with the Titans in free agency, we haven't seen many massive deals for receivers this week. All signs point to a bunch of WR picks early at the draft.
I heard a lot of chatter at the combine about how much scouts and evaluators love this year's receiver class. It's not only strong at the top, but there's also depth throughout. I expect pass-catchers to fly off the board very quickly, starting with Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU's Malik Nabers and Washington's Rome Odunze in the top 10. There's a real possibility that seven receivers could be picked in Round 1, which would tie for the most since 2004. I have five receivers with Day 1 grades and another 11 with Day 2 marks.
Teams with RB needs don't seem to be waiting for the draft.
Miller: If your favorite NFL team had a need at running back (unless you're a Dallas fan), chances are it added a starting-caliber back within the first few days of free agency thanks to a deeper class of talent than we're used to seeing in March. That group included Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Tony Pollard, Austin Ekeler and D'Andre Swift. Sure, most of the deals were one- or two-year contracts, but teams hurried to get their guy. And in just about all of these cases, they were able to land starter-level talent for under $10 million per year.
But this is also about the weak running back draft class. There is no Bijan Robinson or Jahmyr Gibbs. We might only see a few backs -- Texas' Jonathon Brooks, Tennessee's Jaylen Wright and Florida State's Trey Benson -- get drafted in the second round. Brooks is my top-ranked runner at No. 46 overall. I started covering the draft in 2011, and I've never had a class' RB1 ranked lower. Some of it is based on positional value and how the league has depressed the running back market, but there are definitely question marks around the top backs this year. Teams know it and have acted accordingly in free agency.
Teams are valuing interior offensive linemen more than ever ... and that could be reflected in Round 1.
Miller: Carolina handed out a five-year, $100 million deal to Robert Hunt and a four-year, $53 million deal to Damien Lewis. New England gave versatile lineman Mike Onwenu $57 million over three years. Center Lloyd Cushenberry got $50 million from the Titans on a four-year deal, including $26 million guaranteed. And the Rams spent $51 million on Jonah Jackson and $48 million on Kevin Dotson, both on three-year deals. To summarize, NFL teams are clearly prioritizing the interior of the offensive line -- and that's a trend that should hold in the first round of the draft.
Looking strictly at players projected to play inside and not counting tackles who could move to guard (such as Alabama's JC Latham), there are four potential first-rounders. Troy Fautanu (Washington), Jackson Powers-Johnson (Oregon), Graham Barton (Duke) and Zach Frazier (West Virginia) are all ranked inside my top 32 right now. The 2022 draft had four interior linemen drafted in the first round, and we could see that number tied this year.
On the flip side, if you can rush the passer on the interior, get ready to see your draft stock soar, too.
Miller: Look at the annual average salary of top players at each position, and then look at the typical draft value of those positions. Quarterbacks, left tackles, wide receivers, edge rushers and cornerbacks are the highly paid positions in the NFL, and we also see prospects at those spots get drafted early in Round 1. Well, add defensive tackle to that list.
This offseason saw Chris Jones (Chiefs), Christian Wilkins (Raiders) and Justin Madubuike (Ravens) all top $24 million in per-year averages on new deals, which will push up the value of rookie contract defensive tackles for NFL teams. This is great news for Byron Murphy II (Texas), Darius Robinson (Missouri) and Jer'Zhan Newton (Illinois) as potential first-round picks. Teams such as the Dolphins, Texans, Bears, Cardinals, Giants and Vikings are all teams to watch in the top 50 selections, as the NFL leans more into prioritizing inside pass rushes. Jones, Wilkins and Madubuike each posted at least nine sacks last season and got paid. The ability to pressure offenses and collapse the pocket from the interior is crucial (and in turn, it's why offensive guards tasked with stopping these DTs are seeing their own salaries go up).
The NFL seems to be devaluing the safety position -- and it will continue in April.
Reid: We've seen this happen with running backs and non-elite linebackers, and safety appears to be the next position in line. At the start of free agency, an argument could have been made that safety was the deepest position, especially after Justin Simmons and Jordan Poyer were released. And yet, the market has been somewhat stagnant (at least outside of Xavier McKinney, who signed a four-year, $68 million deal in Green Bay). With the NFL trending toward more two-high coverages and defenses, teams have scaled back on paying safeties.
Could this lead to some reaching at the position in the draft? Not necessarily. This year's safety class is weak. And over the past five drafts, the second round has been the sweet spot to find talent. Players such as McKinney, Antoine Winfield Jr., Brian Branch and Kyle Dugger were all early-Day 2 picks. Minnesota's Tyler Nubin, Miami's Kamren Kinchens, Georgia's Javon Bullard and USC's Calen Bullock are all potential Day 2 picks, but there are mixed opinions about their draft ranges. And if we're not including Iowa's Cooper DeJean -- a potential first-round corner who could end up at safety -- we might not see a safety drafted inside the top 60 picks.
Based off free agency, which team is suddenly really intriguing in Round 1?
Reid: Los Angeles Chargers. They have already released Mike Williams, traded Keenan Allen and restructured the contracts of both Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. Where does that leave them with the No. 5 pick? Pass-catching help is an obvious need, and they could have their choice between Nabers, Odunze and Georgia tight end Brock Bowers. There's also a scenario where the Chargers look to trade back. New GM Joe Hortiz and coach Jim Harbaugh have an interesting decision on their hands during Year 1 in Los Angeles.
Miller: Arizona Cardinals. The start of free agency saw them do very little to improve positions of need, outside of adding veteran tackle Jonah Williams on the right side and cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting. Both are good players but are unlikely to move the needle on whom the Cardinals select with two first-rounders. At No. 4 overall, will Arizona stick and take the best available wide receiver (perhaps Harrison), or will it trade out for a haul of picks? The Cardinals could easily finish Round 1 having made three selections if they acquire both of Minnesota's first-rounders and keep pick No. 27.