LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels' journey from top-50 recruit in 2019 to overwhelming 2023 Heisman favorite has been nothing short of incredible. (Note: He won on Saturday night.) Daniels showed early flashes of potential as a true freshman at Arizona State, throwing 17 touchdown passes and just two interceptions. After two up-and-down, frustrating seasons, however, he entered the transfer portal in 2022, landing with the Tigers and new coach Brian Kelly.
And now? Daniels has made a huge improvement over the past two seasons, throwing and running all over the SEC. He had 28 total touchdowns (17 passing) a year ago but leveled up to 50 this season, with 40 through the air and just four interceptions. He has gone from a likely Day 3 NFL draft pick to a legitimate Round 1 prospect in the 2024 class. I have him at No. 4 in my quarterback rankings -- ahead of fellow Heisman finalists Bo Nix and Michael Penix Jr. -- but he would slide up a spot if Colorado's Shedeur Sanders really does stay in school.
We've seen quarterback prospects skyrocket to the top of the board in recent years -- Baker Mayfield (2018), Kyler Murray (2019) and Joe Burrow (2020) all went No. 1 overall -- but the leap Daniels has made is scarcely believable based on what we saw a few seasons ago, both in his passing prowess and in the way he has added weight to his 6-foot-4 frame.
How did Daniels get here? Where has he improved most? And where could he get drafted in April? Let's dive into his biggest strengths and what NFL scouts and front-office executives will be watching for over the next few months:
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Dual-threat ability | Passing improvement
Biggest questions | Draft projection
Jayden Daniels' NFL draft scouting report
Stats over 29 starts at Arizona State from 2019-21: 32 TD passes, 13 INTs while completing 62.4% of his passes; 13 rushing TDs
Stats over 26 starts at LSU from 2022-23: 57 TD passes, 7 INTs while completing 70.2% of his passes; 21 rushing TDs
His strengths as a runner: Daniels is a dual-threat playmaker who can keep defenses off balance with his legs. He's a deceptive runner with the way he can glide by defenders and make them miss, and he has the speed and quickness to produce on designed runs and on scrambles at the next level. He rushed for 1,134 yards during the regular season and has 3,307 rushing yards across five seasons in college.
As much as the NFL has evolved over the past decade to include more dual-threat passers, there are only four starters who had a 1,000-yard rushing season in college: Deshaun Watson (2015), Lamar Jackson (2016 and 2017), Kyler Murray (2018) and Jalen Hurts (2019). That's elite company for Daniels, who averaged 8.4 yards per carry this season, which tops those other four QBs' seasons by more than a full yard.
How much of that was via scrambles, and how much was from designed runs? Daniels averaged 9.1 yards on 58 designed rushes and 12.8 yards on 55 scrambles. (Remember, college football counts sacks toward rushing stats, and he was sacked 22 times.) During Jackson's Heisman-winning season in 2016, he averaged 8.6 yards on a whopping 150 designed rushes and 9.3 yards on his 51 scrambles. So you can see how efficient Daniels was this season, and how dangerous he is when he gets a full head of steam in the open field.
Check out Daniels' awareness and speed on this 49-yard fourth-down scramble against Texas A&M, which happened with LSU down by 10 in the third quarter. He gets near-immediate pressure to his left, slips the edge rusher and makes an immediate decision to "go" -- darting down the sideline before he's chased down by a defensive back. Here's another outstanding run, this time a designed draw that goes for 40 yards against Florida State. He makes multiple defenders miss with his quickness.
Daniels is going to be able to make these plays early and often at the next level, but it's where he has improved in the passing game that has really raised his draft stock.
His strengths as a passer: Daniels has seen tremendous growth in his completion percentage, going from 60.7% in his freshman season at Arizona State to 68.6% in his first year at LSU to 72.2% this season. Let's highlight his improvement on specific throws, though -- ones that aren't easy.
In 2019, Daniels completed 49% of his passes of at least 10 air yards. That ranked 49th in the FBS. That's pretty solid, especially for a true freshman, and he had 11 TD passes and just one interception on those throws. Last season? He completed 52.1% of those passes (27th) and had six TDs with no picks. Again, that's good.
But this season? Daniels took it to a different level. He completed 62.6% of his passes of at least 10 air yards, with 29 TDs and one INT. That completion percentage ranked second -- just behind Michigan's J.J. McCarthy (64.2%) -- and his TD numbers blew away the competition, with only Nix (22), Penix (21) and Liberty's Kaidon Salter (21) topping 20. In fact, Daniels' 29 TDs on those throws ties him for fifth-most in a season since 2013, with Joe Burrow (34 in 2019), Baker Mayfield (31 in 2016) and Watson (29 in 2016) among the passers in the top group.
Jayden Daniels increases LSU's lead with a 26-yard touchdown pass to Malik Nabers.
Daniels' jump in accuracy has been amazing, and he's only going to get better. He sees the field incredibly well and makes good decisions. I highlighted a few of his passing stats above, but he also ranked second in the FBS this season in catchable pass attempt rate (85.3%), third in adjusted completion rate (78.5%) and fourth in off-target rate (6.8%).
The best part about Daniels? He only runs when a play breaks down. He does almost all of his passing damage from inside the pocket. Thirty-five of his 40 touchdown passes this season were from inside the pocket, which ranked first in the FBS. Watch him step up into this 26-yard touchdown throw to Malik Nabers against Army. That's precision. Here's a beautiful 29-yard deep ball to Kyren Lacy that went for a score against Ole Miss. And here's a perfect go-ball to Nabers that came on fourth down against Mississippi State, resulting in a 33-yard score.
All of these throws show Daniels' growth as a pure passer, as he only averaged 6.9 yards per dropback in the pocket last season. He was at 10.8 in the same stat this season.
The other strength I haven't mentioned much is Daniels' ability to take care of the football. He has 20 career interceptions on 1,438 attempts, which is simply incredible. He has lost six of 11 fumbles over his five college seasons, including two in 2023. To put that into perspective, Jackson and Hurts combined for 50 fumbles -- 25 apiece -- over seven college seasons.
Where he will be scrutinized: I mentioned Daniels' ability to scramble for yardage when plays break down, but sometimes he needs to do a better job of keeping his eyes up. He almost always moves outside the pocket to run, not to find an open receiver. You want a quarterback to make a quick decision, but Daniels is going to have to protect his body at the next level, and being able to scramble to throw will be extremely important. Just five of his touchdown passes in 2023 came outside the pocket, which is even fewer than Nix's seven. This should improve in time.
Scouts will also wonder whether Daniels' big jump in passing numbers was because of his improvement or because he had two stellar wideouts to catch those throws. Nabers is likely to be a top-15 pick in next year's class, while Brian Thomas Jr. could be a top-50 pick if he enters the draft. They combined for 29 scores and 2,625 yards. Based on the tape, there's no question Daniels made them better with his pinpoint passes, but they helped him, particularly after the catch. LSU pass-catchers averaged 3.1 yards after first contact per catch, which ranked second in the FBS. Again, based on the game-over-game improvement, I would put most of this on Daniels, but NFL execs will carefully study his one-year jump.
If you had asked me to scrutinize Daniels as a prospect last year, I would have mentioned his slender 6-foot-4 frame, as he played at under 200 pounds for most of his career. This season, though, he looked noticeably bigger, as LSU listed him at 210 pounds. That extra weight was sorely needed, as he took some devastating shots this season. He's going to have to get better at avoiding those hits when he pulls the ball to run.
Where he projects in the draft: I don't have an elite, top-five grade on Daniels -- Caleb Williams (USC) and Drake Maye (North Carolina) are higher on my board -- but he's trending toward being a first-round pick, especially in a draft in which multiple teams have quarterback issues. I have a Round 1 grade on him. I could see Las Vegas (projected by ESPN's Football Power Index to have the No. 9 pick), Tampa Bay (No. 10), Atlanta (No. 13) and Minnesota (No. 21) all doing intensive work on this QB class with an eye toward a Round 1 passer.
Daniels, who turns 23 later this month, has the edge over Nix and Penix because of his size, playmaking ability and week-to-week consistency. He distanced himself from those guys down the stretch, taking the next step in his development. He could be a fantastic NFL player.
What now? Daniels almost certainly will take home the Heisman Trophy on Saturday night, and then he has to make a decision about whether he'll play in the ReliaQuest Bowl on Jan. 1. After that, I wonder if he'll participate in practices at the Senior Bowl, where teams can get a closer look at him. This is the first year in which underclassmen can participate in the event. Regardless, Daniels is a great example of staying in school for another year -- I had a fourth-round grade on him a year ago -- and developing his skill set with an eye toward moving up in the draft.