We'll find out who won the draft day trade in three or four years, they say. Nonsense!
NFL general managers don't have the benefit of hindsight when it comes to making trades -- why should we when evaluating those trades? We're grading these draft day deals immediately, based on the information available -- just like the teams are doing.
To evaluate these deals, we'll be relying heavily on our Approximate Value-based draft pick value calculations, along with important factors such as positional value, salary cap implications, veteran player impact and short- and long-term team outlook.
Trades during the draft can be enormously consequential and can set the direction for a franchise for years to come, so don't sleep on the importance of faring well here.
We'll update this page with deals as they come in throughout the draft.
Eagles trade for Swift, Lions receive 2025 fourth-rounder and 2023 seventh-rounder
Detroit Lions get: 2025 fourth-round pick, 2023 seventh-round pick (No. 219)
Philadelphia Eagles get: D'Andre Swift, 2023 seventh-round pick (No. 249)
Eagles grade: C+
Lions grade: B+*
Let's start with the Lions here because the B+ grade above comes with just about the largest asterisk you can imagine. The reason Detroit is trading Swift is because he became the team's third running back after it selected Jahmyr Gibbs with the No. 12 overall pick (and signed David Montgomery in free agency). If I were grading the entire chain of decisions -- trading down from No. 6 to No. 12, selecting Gibbs there and then trading Swift, I'd give the entire ordeal an F. The selection of Gibbs was an awful misjudgment of positional value, comes with massive opportunity cost (the chance to draft a player worthy of the No. 12 overall pick) and was a reach for a player that would have likely been available later. All that being said: Once the Lions made the draft choice, to get a future fourth for Swift when he has just one year left on his contract is a good piece of business.
For the Eagles, Swift fills a need, yes. But what kind of player are they getting? Swift has been mediocre on the ground accruing a mere six rushing yards over expectation over his entire career. His value comes in the receiving game: He's caught 156 passes over his career and last season had a 63 overall score in our Receiver Tracking Metrics, which ranked eighth among running backs. Receiving skill is where a lot of running back value is, and Swift is a fine player for the Eagles to roster, but they are dealing a future fourth for just one season of him. If the Eagles spent that kind of draft capital on a running back (or two later picks on two) in this year's class, there's a pretty good chance they would find someone roughly on par with Swift at a lower salary and with four years of control.
Texans trade with Arizona, move up to No. 3 to select Anderson
Houston Texans get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 3), 2023 fourth-round pick (No. 105)
Arizona Cardinals get: 2023 first-round pick (No. 12), 2023 second-round pick (No. 33), 2024 first-round pick, 2024 third-round pick
Texans grade: C-
Cardinals grade: A-
The best thing a team can do to fast-track a rebuild is to take a first-round quarterback without having to trade up. It's a gift the Texans were given when they took C.J. Stroud at the No. 2 overall pick. In fact, they had one better -- an additional first-round pick in this year's draft. But by trading up, they squandered a lot of the surplus value they had accumulated.
NFL teams are regularly overconfident in their ability to assess prospects, and the result is a trade market that punishes teams that trade up for non-quarterbacks. According to ESPN's AV-based draft value calculations, Houston is surrendering the equivalent of a top-10 pick in extra value to make this selection. In fact, the picks this year (12 and 33) would almost be enough to get to fair value for picks 3 and 105.
That being said, two factors take the sting out of this for Houston, though:
1. Will Anderson Jr. is a consensus elite prospect that plays a premier position.
2. They did not pay as much as the 49ers did to move from 12 to 3 to select Trey Lance a few years ago. That deal was exorbitant, and at least the Texans did not consider that to be a set market price.