NFL draft takeaways from free agency: Impact on top prospects

With most of the top names in NFL free agency off the board, teams will start to turn their attention to next month's 2023 NFL draft. But how exactly has the past few weeks of player movement changed what we can expect on draft day? How have signings and trades altered Round 1 projections? Team needs have changed since Monday. Some roster voids have been filled, some have not. And a lot of money has flown around, even though some playmakers are still available.

NFL draft analysts Matt Miller and Jordan Reid read the tea leaves and came away with six big draft-related takeaways from free agency, from how certain teams might approach the first round to which positions might be heavily targeted on April 27. What have we learned about how teams view the draft class and plan to navigate it? Let's begin with what free agency tells us about how the quarterback picks could play out.

Jump to:
Who needs a QB? | Who could trade a pick?
Implications for the RB, WR, DT positions?
Contender strategies? | All defense for Philly?

QB-needy teams are maneuvering free agency around where they pick in Round 1 of the draft.

Reid: It's definitely an obvious trend from this week. There are four quarterbacks set to go at the top of Round 1 -- Alabama's Bryce Young, Ohio State's C.J. Stroud, Florida's Anthony Richardson and Kentucky's Will Levis -- and if a team isn't inside the top seven picks, it's going to be hard to get one of them. There will be a drop-off to whoever ends up being QB5 in the class (probably Tennessee's Hendon Hooker) on Day 2.

That's why we saw the Panthers leapfrog everyone from the No. 9 overall pick to the top of the draft. And the teams we thought might draft a QB at the top of the draft are still here, too. That might even include the Raiders, who signed Jimmy Garoppolo but could still draft for the future at the position at No. 7.

Miller: We're seeing a trend where a team either goes all-in for a quarterback prospect -- like the Panthers trading up to No. 1 -- or it waits until it is in a position to find the franchise guy in future drafts. There are only so many top-tier quarterbacks to go around this year.

Reid: Yeah, teams like the Buccaneers, Commanders and Falcons seem to be pivoting toward contingency plans and waiting out the 2023 season. Jacoby Brissett to the Commanders, Baker Mayfield to the Bucs and Taylor Heinicke to the Falcons are all stopgap additions. And all three clubs seem open to the young unproven signal-callers already on the roster and want to see if those guys can win the starting job in training camp. If Sam Howell (Washington), Kyle Trask (Tampa Bay) or Desmond Ridder (Atlanta) take the next step, then maybe the quarterback problem is solved for their respective teams. But those middle-of-the-first-round teams could also have their eyes on a solid 2024 crop of passers which includes USC's Caleb Williams and UNC's Drake Maye.

Miller: I'm so glad you mentioned Williams and Maye. So many scouts are already enamored with those two prospects, and I do think there's some truth to the idea that some teams are looking at where they are drafting in 2023, then looking at the caliber of QBs available next April and ultimately opting to wait until 2024. That's especially true if the cost to move up is what Carolina paid in its trade to No. 1. If you're on the outside looking in -- Washington, Tampa Bay, Atlanta and even Tennessee -- it's almost better to wait for the 2024 class than go broke trying to land one of the four guys this year, based on the cost to get into position to do so.

Reid: If a team did want to move up, it would probably be eyeing the Cardinals' No. 3 overall slot. We could still see the Colts or Raiders evaluate such a move, which would set up a similar landscape to the 2021 draft, when QBs were selected with each of the first three picks.

Miller: Yeah, what are the Colts going to do? The beauty of the draft is the mystery of it all ... and Indianapolis is a huge mystery. With the Panthers and Texans atop the board, the Colts could end up with the fourth-best QB in the class if someone else jumps them and trades for the No. 3 pick. And they didn't solve anything with free agency, only signing Gardner Minshew to be a backup.

Will general manager Chris Ballard finally get aggressive and trade up to get QB3 in this class? Are the Colts confident in whichever quarterback falls to No. 4? I think they have to move up given all the pressure to get this right, but perhaps the smarter play would be looking at Lamar Jackson. Trading two first-rounders and paying Jackson -- who is currently on the nonexclusive franchise tag -- big bucks sounds like a steep price, but the risk involved in drafting a quarterback is actually much higher.

After the Panthers-Bears trade, the Cardinals now have the most important pick in the draft.

Miller: We sort of already alluded to this, but first-time general manager Monti Ossenfort is in a great spot with the value of the No. 3 overall pick skyrocketing. The Bears got a haul from the Panthers for the top pick, and now the Cardinals are sitting pretty. Teams like the Colts, Raiders and maybe even the Commanders (No. 16) could all be looking to jump up to secure a top-three quarterback.

Reid: I would be really surprised if the Cardinals didn't take advantage and try to trade back. Following the first stage of free agency, a strong argument can be made that the Cardinals now have the worst roster in the entire league. The Arizona roster has multiple needs on both sides of the ball, so accumulating assets could make a lot of sense. With quarterbacks likely to go 1-2, the Cards could trade the third pick to the highest bidder -- even if such a move doesn't happen for a while.

Miller: Trading back a spot with the Colts and staying in position to select Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. is the dream scenario for the Cardinals. They need a pass-rusher. And I wonder if we see the Colts -- or Raiders -- get impatient and try to jump up the board now, rather than wait it out and risk missing the opportunity. The Panthers-Bears trade was super early, and the Jets traded up to No. 3 overall in 2018 on March 17. The 49ers' trade up to No. 3 in 2021 was on March 26. So there's some precedent for getting the deal done early -- but the Cardinals have to know that the value of the pick only goes up the closer we get to the draft.

The NFL's disinterest in the free agent receiver and running back groups means teams could target those positions in the early rounds.

Miller: It took three days, but we finally saw movement at the running back and wide receiver positions in free agency. But even once the signings started coming in, there weren't any huge ones like we saw in 2022. New England's JuJu Smith-Schuster and Las Vegas' Jakobi Meyers got the top receiver deals with matching $33 million numbers over three years. Miles Sanders topped out the running back market, getting four years and $25 million from the Panthers. Even teams like the Giants, who have a real need at wide receiver, opted to re-sign Darius Slayton rather than pay for a top-end option. General managers know this is a deep draft class for running backs and wide receivers, and it seems like they'd rather have younger and less expensive options at those positions as opposed to paying top dollar for veterans.

Reid: Scouts agree that this free agency receiver class just was not all that intriguing, whereas the draft class is full of complementary options who can help out an NFL offense right away. There aren't any WR1 types like we've seen in recent years, but many of these pass-catchers are seen as instant-impact types who could serve distinct roles.

Miller: Yeah, it's a down year for top-tier offensive playmakers outside of the tight end class (which is amazing). Even my top-ranked wideout -- Ohio State's Jaxon Smith-Njigba -- is facing uncertainty after playing only three games in 2022 while dealing with a hamstring injury. He had an elite workout at the combine, but it just feels like we won't see a big-ticket free agent deal or an early-Round 1 receiver this offseason. The middle-to-late parts of Round 1 and Day 2 will be the sweet spot for this receiver crop.

Reid: My biggest question is with the running backs. When will Texas' Bijan Robinson get drafted? Every scout I've talked to says he will be picked inside the top 20, but there aren't many sensible landing spots. He's one of the five best prospects in this draft class, but the fact he plays such a devalued position means his true draft range is unclear.

Miller: It will be fun to see where Robinson lands and which team will prioritize a true game-changing back. But I also think we're seeing the after effects of Isiah Pacheco, Dameon Pierce and Tyler Allgeier proving solid Day 3 picks. If you can't get Robinson -- or don't want to spend a first-round pick on a running back -- there's plenty of talent to be found later in the draft. In fact, Robinson's backup at Texas, Roschon Johnson, is one of those midround backs who could be an immediate starter in the NFL thanks to his power, his pass-blocking ability and what he adds as a pass-catcher.

Reid: Yeah, this running back class is loaded, starting with Robinson and Alabama's Jahmyr Gibbs. Evaluators are in agreement that this class is very deep, and it's one of the biggest reasons why the free agency running back market has been slow moving and full of short-term commitments.

Defensive tackles are getting paid in part because draft class lacks depth there.

Reid: A bunch of the interior defensive linemen got big deals this week. Daron Payne agreed to $90 million over six years and Javon Hargrave earned $84 million over four years. Dalvin Tomlinson, Dre'Mont Jones and Zach Allen all got in the ballpark of $30 million guaranteed. Demand is high at defensive tackle, but the lack of supply has teams exceeding some asking prices here. And for me, it's a clear indicator of how NFL teams feel about this year's draft class on the interior. Scouts have used phrases like "underwhelming" and "lacking high-end players."

Miller: Outside of Georgia's Jalen Carter, it's really hard to imagine another defensive tackle going in the top 15-20 picks. Pitt's Calijah Kancey has awesome first-step quickness and was incredibly productive in college, but at 6-foot-1 and 281 pounds, he's undersized. He won't be a fit for every scheme and team, but in a 4-3 defense, he could have a ton of success as a 3-technique pass-rusher.

Reid: Clemson's Bryan Bresee had a solid pro day, but there are mixed opinions about his 2022 season and how he projects at the next level. In short, there just isn't a lot of top-end talent here, so it's not a surprise that teams are paying big money to free agent defensive tackles.

There's also the Carter question. He was arrested on misdemeanor charges of racing and reckless driving during combine week and was briefly jailed before posting bond and returning to Indianapolis. He was sentenced to 12 months of probation, a $1,000 fine and 80 hours of community service after pleading no contest. Carter also had a rough pro day, weighing in nine pounds heavier than he was in Indy and being unable to finish his position drills. What are you hearing, Matt?

Miller: Carter is the real wildcard here. While there is off-field uncertainty and his pro day workout wasn't great, scouts continue to tell me he'll be drafted in the top 10 picks. The consensus around the league is Carter has too much talent to fall very far. And one scout I spoke to this week said Carter is the hands-down best player in this class. Seeing the Seattle Seahawks sign Jones seems to indicate they're out of the running on Carter, but the Cardinals letting Allen walk in free agency might point to their willingness to make him the No. 3 overall pick. And Chicago looms at No. 9, should he get there.

Teams at the back end of Round 1 are investing heavily via free agency since the draft class has a serious drop off.

Reid: Teams at the end of the first round have especially focused on the offensive line in free agency. We've seen the Chiefs (Jawaan Taylor), Bengals (Orlando Brown Jr.) and Ravens (Ben Powers) all sign blockers to lucrative deals. Evaluators around the league say a big reason for that is the expectation OTs will fly off of the board in the middle of the first round. Plus, the interior line class is below average.

Miller: You nailed it, Jordan. Teams know that all of the top tackles -- Peter Skoronski (Northwestern), Broderick Jones (Georgia), Paris Johnson Jr. (Ohio State) and Darnell Wright (Tennessee) -- could be gone in the first 20 picks. And there is a really big drop-off to the second-tier tackles. On the interior, you won't hear many Round 1 grades at guard or center. In polling scouts around the league, only Florida guard O'Cyrus Torrence and Minnesota center John Michael Schmitz are thought to be top-31 picks there.

For contenders picking in the Nos. 21-31 range, there's also the risk of relying on a rookie to protect your franchise quarterback. Look at Kansas City and Cincinnati; neither front office is comfortable waiting until April 27 to secure protection for their signal-callers.

Reid: Kansas City is a great example to use. With a roster already loaded and 10 total draft picks, it's smart for the Chiefs to add proven players this year in free agency. And I think they could be aggressive in moving around a bit in the draft. That could mean up the board slightly if a top-tier talent slips and GM Brett Veach sees an opportunity to land an instant-impact prospect. But it could also mean down the board, if value just isn't there at No. 31.

Miller: It sets up perfectly for those teams at the end of Round 1 -- Kansas City, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Buffalo -- to trade back and start loading up future picks. Good teams make smart decisions, and getting out of the late-first round is certainly smart this year if a run on pass-rushers depletes the board of value.

The Philadelphia Eagles will go all-defense with their two first-rounders.

Miller: The Eagles were able to bring back key contributors, but this team is still staring down a future exodus on defense. General manager Howie Roseman has done a brilliant job manipulating the salary cap to keep key veterans, but like they did in last year's first round, the Eagles have to draft for future needs. I still see a team, with the No. 10 and No. 30 overall picks, that has to go heavy on defense in the first round. After losing Hargrave (San Francisco) and T.J. Edwards (Chicago), and potentially losing safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson (free agent), even a team that has drafted well for the future has holes.

Reid: I wouldn't be surprised to see Roseman again look to move around in the draft. He often has his eyes on the future when making early picks, and the Eagles could try to gain more selections by moving down. But don't be surprised to see Philly draft a heir apparent to Brandon Graham or Fletcher Cox on the defensive line.

Miller: I definitely think we could see movement from the Eagles, especially since Roseman enters the draft with just six total picks, including none in Rounds 4-6. He'll want to pick up extra selections to do what you said Jordan -- start drafting for future needs at defensive end, defensive tackle, cornerback and right tackle. I think there's a good scenario where the Eagles slide back from No. 10 to collect future draft capital and still target a cornerback like Devon Witherspoon (Illinois) or Christian Gonzalez (Oregon).

Reid: Offensive line could be a target, too. And yes, the talk about Bijan Robinson will pick up now that Sanders signed in Carolina. But the Eagles have been hesitant to invest early draft capital in running backs, and they already signing Rashaad Penny and brought back Boston Scott. So while a midround pick could be in play, Philadelphia seems to be in a good place at the position.