We're through four weeks of the college football season, which means it's time to reset what we know and don't know about the 2022 NFL draft. When I did my preseason rankings earlier this month, I noted all of the changes that were likely to come this fall. That's because this is such a crucial evaluation period for underclassmen and seniors; games matter, and what happens in them far exceeds the importance of the hype off the field. So far, we've seen a few risers, fallers and surprises from the top of my Big Board, along with a couple of notable injuries.
I'll have my updated Big Board and position rankings on ESPN.com later this week, but I wanted to take a few questions from readers about what I've seen so far. I'll start with a question about my top-ranked quarterback before the season, Oklahoma's Spencer Rattler, who was booed by his own fans on Saturday. A few more names I'll hit: Matt Corral, Derek Stingley Jr., Evan Neal and Kayvon Thibodeaux. (Questions have been edited for clarity.)
I also picked a prospect who is rising after Saturday's games, plus an under-the-radar prospect to keep an eye on throughout the rest of the season:
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Draft riser | Under-the-radar prospect
Has Spencer Rattler's play this year changed your opinion on him? (via @KevinEidt)
Definitely. His decision-making hasn't improved. He has thrown some really poor interceptions. The preseason Heisman Trophy favorite doesn't look like a franchise quarterback right now.
What's most concerning is that Oklahoma's competition hasn't even been strong. In three home games against FBS opponents (Tulane, Nebraska, West Virginia), Rattler has thrown three TD passes and three picks, averaging just 7.1 yards per attempt. He's completing 73.4% of his passes, but that's because so many of his throws have been short. He's not finding star wideout Marvin Mims downfield (just 10 total catches so far). In 10 games against FBS teams last season, 57.5% of Rattler's completions went for at least 10 yards. This season? That's way down to 41.3%. Where are the "wow" throws we saw down the stretch in 2020? He and the Sooners just aren't clicking.
Now, Rattler was up and down early last season, too, before he finished with 15 TD passes and two INTs in the final seven games as OU won the Big 12 title and Cotton Bowl. He has shown his arm talent and flashed moments of brilliance this season, but he hasn't been close to consistent. His offensive line has been an issue, sure, but he's supposed to elevate those around him. I haven't seen that so far.
All the pressure is on Rattler, who looks more like a fringe first-rounder than a candidate to be picked No. 1 overall next April. He has the talent to bounce back, but it'll have to happen quickly. Over the next three weeks, the Sooners play at Kansas State, get Texas in Dallas and then play TCU at home. These are going to be major evaluation games for NFL scouts. I'll have a new Big Board update later this week, and it's safe to assume that Rattler won't be ranked as high as he was before the season.
Talk to me about Matt Corral's upside. (via IfUSeekCintron)
Unlike Rattler, Corral has passed the eye test. The Ole Miss quarterback looks like a potential first-rounder through three games. He torched Tulane last Saturday -- a common opponent with Rattler and OU -- to the tune of seven total touchdowns (three passing, four rushing) and a nearly perfect 97.5 Total QBR. He has a quick release, scans the field well and has shown great ball placement.
As I wrote last week, Corral's problems last season came in two disastrous games in which he combined for 11 interceptions (six vs. Arkansas, five vs. LSU), and he has a tough schedule the rest of the way. The Rebels play at Alabama on Saturday, then get Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn in four straight weeks. He's going to have to play well to continue his rise. But if we're talking about upside, Corral could be a top-10 pick and the top quarterback in the 2022 class. There is a long time to go before we have to make a full evaluation, but he's rising in my rankings.
What are the odds a team drafts Derek Stingley Jr. as the first defender above Kayvon Thibodeaux? (via @andrewbecker95)
I don't see that happening. NFL teams value elite edge rushers much more than lockdown corners. If you recall, former LSU corner Patrick Peterson was No. 1 on my final Big Board before the 2011 draft, and he dropped to the fifth pick. It will take a corner playing consistent, lights-out football, and Stingley isn't doing that right now.
The LSU defender missed Saturday's game with a foot injury, and he had an up-and-down 2020 season. The reason he's my top-ranked corner is his upside, which he showed as a true freshman in 2019. He was phenomenal for the national champs, and he hasn't been consistent since. Still, he's likely to be a top-seven pick if he can get back on the field and stay healthy. Oregon pass-rusher Thibodeaux, meanwhile, was No. 1 in my preseason rankings but has missed the past three games with an ankle injury. He's the clear top edge defender in this class, though he needs to work on a secondary pass-rush move.
I'll have new CB rankings later this week, and look for Stingley to remain No. 1, followed by Auburn's Roger McCreary. The No. 3 spot is tough; Clemson's Andrew Booth Jr. is in the mix, but he had a rough day on Saturday. I also like Florida's Kaiir Elam and Washington's Trent McDuffie. Stay tuned.
Do you see a guard/center being drafted before an offensive tackle in 2022? (via @CFBcaveman)
No chance. That's because Alabama's Evan Neal is likely to be in this draft (he's a true junior). He's an elite tackle with experience at guard who is moving closer to being a top-10 lock. There is no Quenton Nelson in this class; Iowa center Tyler Linderbaum is the best interior lineman, but I see him as more likely to be drafted in the range of picks Nos. 15-25.
The Giants will likely have two top-15 picks. Should they use both for offensive line, and who should they be looking at? (via @dhagg71)
The ESPN Football Power Index projects the 0-3 Giants to have picks Nos. 4 and 7, the latter coming from the Bears from the trade last April. And speaking of Neal, he'd fill a void here. They took tackle Andrew Thomas at No. 4 overall in 2020, but he has been just OK so far, and they could also use an improvement at right tackle. Neal could play either spot.
Realistically, though, the Giants have a lot of needs, and they can't take two first-round linemen. I think Daniel Jones is talented enough to be their quarterback of the future, but that's a decision they're going to have to make at the end of the year. Their defense has taken a step back this season. Could Kayvon Thibodeaux be an option? Rookie second-rounder Azeez Ojulari has flashed this season, but they need more. Thibodeaux might not make it to No. 4, so Michigan's Aidan Hutchinson, another top pass-rusher, could be available. Cornerback could be a possibility in the top 10, too.
Prospect on the rise after Week 4
Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas
Check out this 85-yard run and catch. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound Burks created separation and showed some burst. He finished the win over Texas A&M with six catches for 167 yards and that score. He could play inside or outside, and you just saw his ability to run after the catch. Quarterbacks love Burks because of his catch radius. He does try to catch the ball with his body sometimes -- he had two drops against Rice -- but he's still a first-round receiver. I ranked him as my No. 2 WR before the season, but he might move up a spot on my next Big Board.
Kj Jefferson with 91-yard TD Pass to Treylon Burks vs. Georgia Southern
Under-the-radar prospect you should know
Pierre Strong Jr., RB, South Dakota State
Strong was incredibly impressive in the Jackrabbits' Week 1 win over Colorado State, rushing 13 times for 138 yards and two touchdowns. Against Indiana State on Saturday, he had 20 carries for 150 yards and a score. At 5-foot-10, 205 pounds, he's a one-cut runner who can do damage bursting through gaps and breaking off long runs. He's also a solid pass-blocker. Strong is a high-upside Day 3 pick who could be a really good No. 2 back at the next level.