With most college football teams playing three games so far, we've gotten a decent look at what's real and what's a mirage after an offseason of evaluating the top prospects in the 2022 NFL draft. We know that Alabama is the best team in the country -- again -- and that its roster is loaded with NFL talent. Clemson and Ohio State, on the other hand, are off to rocky starts after seeing their first-round quarterbacks get drafted.
So I was asked this week: "Mel, which prospects have surprised you most this season?"And well, it's a long answer. I still don't quite know what to make of the 2022 quarterback class. There have been some inconsistent performances in the first month. I still have some questions about how the edge rusher and wide receiver classes will shake out, and the running back class is deep and always shuffling.
I picked a few of my early-season surprises, starting with a quarterback who was on my preseason Big Board and looks like the real deal. I also picked a prospect who is rising after Saturday's games, along with an under-the-radar prospect to keep an eye on throughout the rest of the season:
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Draft riser | Under-the-radar prospect
Biggest surprises of the season so far
QB Malik Willis is no one-year wonder
OK, so Liberty hasn't played the toughest schedule so far -- vs. Campbell, at Troy, vs. Old Dominion -- but Willis leads the country in Total QBR and looks improved from his excellent 2020 season. He's completing 71% of his passes with seven touchdowns and no picks while rushing for 225 yards and four more scores. Willis is averaging 9.7 air yards per attempt, so he's not dinking and dunking down the field. He's making NFL throws.
Willis was No. 15 on my preseason Big Board, and he's going to be in the mix to be the No. 1 quarterback in this class if he keeps playing like this. Next up for him and Liberty? Road games at Syracuse and UAB. The big one that NFL teams will be watching closely, though, comes on Nov. 6, when Liberty travels to Oxford, Mississippi, to face Ole Miss. Speaking off the Rebels, here are three more notes on the 2022 QB class:
Ole Miss' Matt Corral, my fifth-ranked QB before the season began, has been lights out. He has nine touchdown passes, no interceptions and five rushing scores in impressive wins over Louisville, Austin Peay and Tulane. The big thing with Corral has always been about limiting mistakes and not letting them accelerate into disastrous days; last season, he had a six-INT game vs. Arkansas and then had a five-INT game vs. LSU. Corral and Ole Miss now get a bye week ... followed by a trip to Tuscaloosa to play the defending champs.
Cincinnati's Desmond Ridder, No. 8 in my preseason QB rankings, had a bumpy first half against Indiana on Saturday, but he was tremendous down the stretch as the Bearcats came back to win. He hasn't thrown an interception or taken a sack in the fourth quarter this season, showing improvement from 2020, when he completed just 58.5% of his passes and averaged 6.2 yards per attempt in fourth quarters.
I didn't rank Pitt's Kenny Pickett among my top 10 QBs, but he's making his case. Coming off a six-TD day in a loss to Western Michigan on Saturday -- no one can blame him for the loss -- he already has 10 TDs in three games. He had only 13 in both the 2019 and 2020 seasons. Pickett ranks 10th in the country in Total QBR.
Alabama's top receiver is ...
Jameson Williams? The Ohio State transfer has made an immediate impact, already besting his previous two seasons for the Buckeyes. He has 11 catches for 218 yards and two touchdowns, including a 94-yard score against Miami. It's early, of course, but I didn't expect Williams to immediately take over as one of the top targets for quarterback Bryce Young. He got caught in a loaded depth chart at Ohio State, but he's thriving early at Alabama.
At 6-foot-2, Williams is playing both slot and outside receiver this season. He has the speed to break off big plays and the agility to make defenders miss. I still have John Metchie III as Bama's top-ranked wideout for the 2022 class, but I could see Williams rising in Day 2 territory if he enters the draft. Now, the Crimson Tide have had four first-round receivers in the past two years, and I don't think Williams will rise that high. But the surprise is how great he looks so far at a new school.
Two transfers who have caught my eye
Kenneth Walker III had two solid if unspectacular seasons at Wake Forest in 2019 and 2020, but he leads the country in rushing yards (493) and is averaging 8.6 yards per carry for Michigan State this season. He looked phenomenal against Northwestern and Miami. At 5-foot-10, 210 pounds, he gets tough yardage inside -- he's slippery. He breaks tackles. I didn't rank Walker among my top 10 backs before the season, but he has been super impressive. He's moving up.
I also have to give a shoutout to my fellow Calvert Hall grad Chance Campbell, who has really helped the Ole Miss defense. A transfer from Maryland, Campbell (6-foot-2, 235 pounds) has been all over the field, racking up 19 tackles, a sack and a fumble recovery. The Rebels' defense was awful last season, and Campbell has given them a boost on the second level. He could be a solid Day 3 pick.
Three prospects who haven't lived up to expectations -- yet
I ranked Washington offensive tackle Jaxson Kirkland at No. 8 overall on my preseason Big Board. I loved his 2020 tape. But he struggled big time against Michigan edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson last week. Now, Hutchinson is tremendous and could be a first-rounder, too, but I expected much more out of Kirkland. He needs to play better.
Indiana wide receiver Ty Fryfogle was ranked just outside my top 10 at the position, and I thought he could have a big season. But he has just 11 catches and is averaging 11.5 yards per reception this season. Cincinnati's talented cornerbacks -- Ahmad Gardner and Coby Bryant -- shut him down on Saturday (one catch, 13 yards). Fryfogle had a few drops and was inconsistent last season, but I had hoped that was behind him.
I was excited to see Georgia State transfer Jordan Strachan at South Carolina this season, but he hasn't made a big impact on the other side of Kingsley Enagbare yet. He has one sack in three games. The 6-foot-5, 250-pound edge defender has some upside, but he hasn't been a difference-maker so far.
Prospect on the rise after Week 3
Nik Bonitto, OLB, Oklahoma
Bonitto didn't make my preseason Big Board, but I might have to add him in the next update. He had two sacks in Saturday's win over Nebraska, including one on the Cornhuskers' final possession that all but ended their hopes of a comeback. He also added a tackle for loss. Bonitto, a fourth-year junior, is a stellar speed rusher who creates disruption while being lined up outside or inside. He reacts well to quarterbacks trying to misdirect him, and he'll even drop into coverage at times. He had 8.5 sacks last season and is on pace to top that this season. I'd like to see him get a little stronger -- he's not going to overpower offensive tackles -- but the arrow is definitely pointing up, and NFL teams covet edge rushers. I have a second-round grade on the 6-foot-3, 235-pound Bonitto right now.
Under-the-radar prospect you should know
Braxton Jones, OT, Southern Utah
The Thunderbirds struggled in their spring FCS season (1-5) and lost their first two games this season to FBS teams (San Jose State and Arizona State), but Jones is a legitimate left tackle prospect. He dominated in Saturday's win over Tarleton. At 6-foot-7, 310 pounds, he has good length, agility and feet. He sustains and finishes blocks well and can also hit a moving target on blitzes. He has strong hands. Jones needs some work on his technique -- a few times on Saturday, he let a Texans defender get onto his chest -- but for the most part he took away edge rushes and neutralized inside moves. He has everything NFL teams look for in a developmental offensive line prospect. Jones should get a look at postseason all-star games, where scouts can see him up close against better talent. I have an early Day 3 grade on him now.