Football Outsiders takes a look at the biggest need positions for all 32 teams going into the 2021 NFL draft. Each team is listed with its biggest need, a lesser-known need, and a position where there's no need at all.
Many of the descriptions reference Football Outsiders stats, which are explained here. The most common is DVOA, or defense-adjusted value over average, which compares every play of the NFL season to a league average and adjusts based on situation and opponent.
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ARI | ATL | BAL | BUF | CAR | CHI | CIN
CLE | DAL | DEN | DET | GB | HOU | IND
JAC | KC | LV | LAC | LAR | MIA | MIN
NE | NO | NYG | NYJ | PHI | PIT | SF
SEA | TB | TEN | WSH
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
Biggest need: Cornerback
The Cowboys have lost starting cornerbacks Byron Jones and Chidobe Awuzie to the Dolphins and Bengals, respectively, in free agency the past two offseasons. And while the team took one step to replace them with its selection of Trevon Diggs in the second round of last year's draft, it needs to take another. Incumbent options Jourdan Lewis and Anthony Brown are more experienced in the slot. Rashard Robinson was a 2020 practice squad player forced into NFL action because of the team's injuries. C.J. Goodwin is a journeyman with just one start and 227 defensive snaps in his five-year career. Maurice Canady is only a bit more experienced and opted out of 2020 for COVID-19 concerns. 2020 fourth-rounder Reggie Robinson has yet to play corner in an NFL game after his transition from safety.
Prospects who might fit: Patrick Surtain II, Alabama; Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
Quiet need: Pass rush
The otherwise uninspiring 2020 Cowboys defense had a sneaky top-10 defensive pressure rate (26.8%) according to Sports Info Solutions charting, and that was thanks to two players. DeMarcus Lawrence and Aldon Smith may not have racked up sacks, but they finished seventh and eighth in football with 37 and 36 hurries, more than double the total of the third-place defender on their team (Tyrone Crawford, 16). Their defense has multiple holes to fill, but the Cowboys should not neglect edge rusher now that Smith has left in free agency for the Seahawks.
Prospect who might fit: Joe Tryon, Washington; Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest
Not a need: Tight end
The Cowboys' post-Jason Witten era started disastrously with tight end Blake Jarwin tearing his ACL in Week 1 of last season. But presumed backup Dalton Schultz acquitted himself nicely in his stead, producing a palatable -8.5% receiving DVOA that next to three talented wideouts makes him a fine option if Jarwin (12.1% DVOA in 2019) can't fulfill his pre-injury promise and if Jerry Jones is too far back at pick No. 10 to draft his prospect crush Kyle Pitts.
New York Giants
Biggest need: Pass rush
The Giants showed defensive promise in 2020, but last year's unit was notably stronger against the run (15th in DVOA) than the pass (22nd). Ironically, given his position (defensive tackle) and size (6-foot-5 and 302 pounds), re-signed free agent Leonard Williams should help with the latter. He more than doubled the team's next-best pass-rusher with 30 hurries. Free-agent addition Ifeadi Odenigbo should help as well. He outproduced his 3.5 sacks with 22 hurries for the Vikings last season. Still, the Giants need another impact rusher for depth and to make their opponents think twice before they double-team Williams.
Prospects who might fit: Kwity Paye, Michigan; Carlos Basham Jr., Wake Forest
Quiet need: Offensive line
The Giants recognized last year's loud need on the offensive line and addressed it with three draft picks in the first five rounds, including left tackle Andrew Thomas at pick No. 4. But those investments have yet to pay dividends. The team finished 25th in offensive pressure rate in 2020, and Thomas struggled with a 6.5% blown pass block rate that was the highest among tackles with 300 or more snaps in pass protection, according to Sports Info Solutions charting. The team also lost guard Kevin Zeitler in free agency, and although they will regain tackle Nate Solder after his opt-out season, he was no better in pass protection (6.3% blown block rate) when he last played in 2019 than Thomas was last season.
Prospect who might fit: Rashawn Slater, Northwestern; Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Not a need: Defensive back
With standout play from cornerback James Bradberry and safety Jabrill Peppers, the Giants' secondary deserves no blame for the 2020 team's weaker pass defense. And this year, they should be even stronger at defensive back with free-agent cornerback addition Adoree' Jackson and with second-round safety Xavier McKinney who recovered from his broken foot and has a year under his NFL belt.
Philadelphia Eagles
Biggest need: Wide receiver
The Eagles knew they would soon lose veteran receivers DeSean Jackson (34 years old) and Alshon Jeffery (31). But now that they have lost the former in free agency and released the latter, their succession plans do not appear ready to take over. Second-round 2019 selection J.J. Arcega-Whiteside saw just eight targets in eight games in 2020 and looks like a bust. The team's top pick from last year, Jalen Reagor, has played too little to pass judgment, but his -20.5% rookie receiving DVOA fell alarmingly short of the receiver who went one pick behind him in the draft, Justin Jefferson (25.5%, seventh best at the position). And in fact, thrice-cut sixth-rounder Travis Fulgham (4.9%) is the Eagles' only returning receiver whose efficiency was better than 10% below average in 2020.
Prospects who might fit: Jaylen Waddle, Alabama; Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Quiet need: Linebacker
It's difficult to find "quiet" needs for a team coming off a four-win season. Linebacker is the closest to it, especially after the team added Eric Wilson in free agency earlier this month. It's natural to assume that Wilson's and the Eagles incumbent Alex Singleton's 120-tackle 2020 seasons reflect performance improvements, but the truth is their increased productivity had more to do with their circumstances. Wilson, Singleton and Eagles middle linebacker T.J. Edwards all finished in the bottom third of players with 25 or more tackles at their position, allowing between 18.3% and 19.5% broken tackle rates, according to Sports Info Solutions charting.
Prospects who might fit: Micah Parsons, Penn State; Nick Bolton, Missouri
Not a need: Quarterback
Jalen Hurts may not have been a top-tier prospect, but Football Outsiders' QBASE projection system liked him more than his eventual draft position because of his college experience and efficiency, and his -17.6% rookie passing DVOA rate was comparable to those of recent early first-round quarterbacks in their freshman seasons such as Joe Burrow (-7.3%), Tua Tagovailoa (-8.5%), Kyler Murray (-3.1%) and Daniel Jones (-19.2%). And possibly more important for the 2021 Eagles, Hurts has the elusiveness to extend plays like Russell Wilson and Deshaun Watson do behind bad pass-protecting lines in Seattle (30.4% pressure rate, 28th) and Houston (29.6%, 26th) in case the Eagles' line (31.5%, 32nd) fails to rebound.
Washington Football Team
Biggest need: Left tackle
With guard Brandon Scherff returning, Washington's pass protection should be much better than its 22nd ranking in adjusted sack rate from 2020 would suggest. It was 11th in offensive pressure rate, and poor decision making and conservative play from former quarterbacks Dwayne Haskins Jr. and Alex Smith probably drove the bulk of that discrepancy. Still, Washington suffered a weak link at the worst spot on its offensive line -- left tackle. Geron Christian had a poor 3.5% blown pass block rate in his six games as the starter, and then after his knee injury, traditional right tackle Morgan Moses fared even worse (3.8%) after a switch to the blind side.
Prospects who might fit: Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech; Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Quiet need: Linebacker
Washington was third in defensive DVOA in 2020 and could improve to first in 2021 considering its youth and the free-agent addition of cornerback William Jackson III. Still, it could eliminate the last weakness of that unit with a plus linebacker. Jon Bostic has revived his career in Washington, but his big tackle totals from the past two seasons belie below-average broken tackle rates of 21.5% and 17.9%. Meanwhile, the team has little depth and future prospects at the position beyond 2020 fifth-rounder Khaleke Hudson, who played more special teams than defense in his rookie season.
Prospects who might fit: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame; Jabril Cox, LSU
Not a need: Defensive tackle
Edge rusher and No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft Chase Young helped catapult Washington from 27th in defensive DVOA in 2019 to third last year. But the team's entire line is former first-rounders, including defensive tackles Daron Payne and Jonathan Allen. That should set them up for sustained defensive success for the next several seasons. Washington also has depth with veteran Matt Ioannidis returning from a torn biceps.
-- Scott Spratt
NFC North
Chicago Bears
Biggest need: Quarterback
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Chicago could use a quarterback. Incumbent sometimes-starter Nick Foles and new addition Andy Dalton finished back-to-back in passing DVOA last season at -16.3% and -16.7%. Those rates fell just behind frequent punching bags Drew Lock (-16.2%), Tua Tagovailoa (-8.5%) and ... Mitchell Trubisky (-7.5%). Yikes. That isn't news to the organization. It has little invested in either Foles or Dalton beyond 2021. Their problem is the 2020 playoff berth dropped them to the 20th pick, probably too late to draft one of the big five quarterback prospects or even trade up for one without ceding multiple future first-round picks. It's a difficult predicament, and the Bears' best solution may be to select a less-heralded prospect in the second or third round with an expectation that they will need to address the position again in 2022 when they hopefully will be better positioned to do so.
Prospects who might fit: Kellen Mond, Texas A&M; Kyle Trask, Florida
Quiet need: Offensive tackle
We wouldn't say Trubisky is a misunderstood talent, but his ebbs and flows have matched the quality of the team's pass protection very closely. He went 12-15 as a starter in 2017 and 2019 when the Bears' line landed outside the top 20 in adjusted sack rate. And he went 18-6 in 2018 and 2020 when they finished seventh and 15th. Any quarterback would benefit from improvements there, especially at tackle, where the team lost Bobby Massie and Rashaad Coward this offseason and where Massie, Coward and expected left tackle starter Charles Leno blew at least 3.2% of their pass blocks. Germain Ifedi was the Bears' best tackle in 2020, but he has traditionally been and figures to again be a guard in 2021.
Prospects who might fit: Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech; Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Not a need: Running back
The Bears' offensive line has been even worse in run blocking than in pass protection, finishing in the bottom 10 in adjusted line yards each of the past four seasons. David Montgomery has a modest 4.0 career yards-per-carry average because of that, but he shined in 2020 with a 23.9% broken tackle rate -- third among backs with 150 or more touches -- that better captures his contributions to the team's running game.
Detroit Lions
Biggest need: Wide receiver
As close as any team is to a full-blown rebuild, the Lions have holes all over their roster. But things are particularly dire at wide receiver, having lost Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr. in free agency. Tyrell Williams and Breshad Perriman are worthwhile placeholder signings, but they will play the majority of the 2021 season at 29 and 28 years old and justify their discounts with checkered injury and production histories. A top talent at receiver such as DeVonta Smith or Ja'Marr Chase could transform the team's offensive expectations and pay off Detroit's trade for Jared Goff.
Prospects who might fit: DeVonta Smith, Alabama; Ja'Marr Chase, LSU; Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Quiet need: Quarterback
As a 26-year-old with two Pro Bowl berths and one Super Bowl appearance, Jared Goff looks like the Lions' new franchise quarterback on paper. But his rider of two first-round picks and one third-rounder in the Matthew Stafford trade hints that teams view Goff as less valuable than his contract. The Lions are stuck with that contract for only two more years before they can release him without a dead-cap hit. That plus their seventh overall draft position and the deep top tier of quarterback prospects makes this a surprisingly perfect time to draft one with better versatility, especially if they believe that prospect will need time on the bench to develop.
Prospects who might fit: Justin Fields, Ohio State; Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Not a need: Offensive line
Rebuilding teams often prefer to build inside out, but the Lions have unusual talent and depth on their offensive line for a five-win team. Former first-rounders Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow blew just 1.9% and 0.7% of their pass blocks last season, and the line as a whole finished eighth in offensive pressure rate at 21.6%.
Green Bay Packers
Biggest need: Cornerback
It may seem silly to read cornerback as a need since Jaire Alexander is one of the best corners in football -- he finished second at the position with 4.4 yards allowed per target in 2020. But with one of the best rosters in football, the Packers lack the glaring holes that most teams have. And No. 2 corner Kevin King ranked 54th among positional qualifiers with 8.4 yards allowed per target last season. His deficiencies hurt the Packers against only their most dangerous offensive opponents, but those are the opponents the Packers need to beat to make the final jump from a final-four contender to a Super Bowl champion. That was certainly the case in last season's NFC Championship Game loss when King was on the wrong side of seemingly every big Bucs play, from Scotty Miller's first half-ending touchdown to the game-ending pass interference call.
Prospects who might fit: Greg Newsome II, Northwestern; Asante Samuel Jr., UCF
Quiet need: Edge rusher
An upgrade at cornerback would likely improve the effectiveness of the Packers' pass rush. But they also could use another impact player in their front seven. The Smiths transformed the team's defense from a bottom-five DVOA unit in 2018, but only Za'Darius Smith carried that success over to his second year with the Packers, with 30 hurries and 12.5 sacks. Preston Smith saw his production crater from 35 hurries and 12.0 sacks in 2019 to 11 and 4.0 last season. Second-year player Rashan Gary, a first-round pick in 2019, became a factor in the second half of the season, but the Packers probably will need more to make a strength out of a bottom-10 front in defensive pressure rate.
Prospect who might fit: Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Not a need: Offensive line
Offensive line may seem like a glaring need after the Packers lost star linemen Bryan Bulaga and Corey Linsley in free agency the last two offseasons, both to the Chargers. But the team has continued its run of successful drafting and developing of later-round blockers with Elgton Jenkins, Billy Turner and Lucas Patrick, who blew 2.6% or less of their blocks in 2020 and should be capable starters in 2021 alongside All-Pro anchor David Bakhtiari at left tackle.
Minnesota Vikings
Biggest need: Offensive line
The Vikings suffered a massive disparity between their run blocking (5.07 adjusted line yards, first) and pass protection (7.7% adjusted sack rate, 26th) in 2020. And while that sort of inequality often points to an indecisive quarterback, I don't think that's the case with Kirk Cousins. The Vikings allowed pressure on 31.4% of Cousins' dropbacks, the second-highest rate in football and barely behind that of the injury-decimated Eagles (31.5%). And Riley Reiff was the team's only lineman with 300 snaps in pass protection and a blown block rate under 2.0%, and he left for the Bengals in free agency.
Prospects who might fit: Rashawn Slater, Northwestern; Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Quiet need: Edge rusher
The Vikings should get two-time Pro Bowl defensive end Danielle Hunter back in 2021 after a neck injury sidelined him for all of 2020. But after losing pass-rushers Everson Griffen, Yannick Ngakoue and Ifeadi Odenigbo in trades and free agency the last two years, they need to replenish their depth at the position. Even with the latter two players, the team finished in the bottom five of both defensive pressure rate (19.6%, 30th) and adjusted sack rate (4.8%, 28th) in 2020, and free-agent addition Stephen Weatherly is unlikely to move the needle after contributing just 11 hurries and no sacks in his one year in Carolina.
Prospect who might fit: Kwity Paye, Michigan
Not a need: Tight end
Kyle Rudolph had been a major part of the Vikings' offense for a decade, but the Vikings are well-equipped to survive his loss to the Giants in free agency. First-rounder Irv Smith Jr. was a top-10 tight end in receiving efficiency in his second season and is poised to break out with more targets this year, and Tyler Conklin is a capable second half of the team's preferred 12 personnel.
-- Scott Spratt
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
Biggest need: Safety
With Keanu Neal, Ricardo Allen, and Damontae Kazee all departing in the same offseason, a once-promising last line of defense in Atlanta needs to be completely rebuilt. That process began with veteran free agents Erik Harris and Duron Harmon, but both are the wrong side of 30 and neither is an established high-level starter. The Falcons still need an injection of youth and top-level talent; the Falcons picking a safety in the first three rounds should be one of the surest bets in the draft.
Prospect who might fit: Trevon Moehrig, TCU; Jevon Holland, Oregon
Quiet need: Quarterback
Matt Schaub's retirement opens a gap on the roster behind Matt Ryan, but more than that, it is quite possible that the new front office is appraising the succession plan. Ryan turns 36 in May, and the Falcons haven't picked this high in the draft since taking Ryan himself third overall in 2008. This year's draft is generally considered to have five first-round picks at quarterback. If Atlanta feels that they can address both next year's backup plan and 2022-23's succession plan with one first-round pick, it is very possible that we could see one of the big-name signal-caller prospects head to Georgia.
Prospect who might fit: Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Not a need: Wide receiver
Injuries limited Julio Jones to just nine games and his lowest per-game yardage tally since 2012. However, in Jones' absence Calvin Ridley finally broke through the 1,000-yard barrier, tallying 1,374 yards in his third year, and 24-year-old Russell Gage enjoyed a 100-plus-target season from the slot. Jones had only missed four games across the previous six seasons in Atlanta, so he is likely to be healthier in 2021. Even if he isn't, with Ryan under center, the Falcons have been very accomplished at getting production from backup receivers. A late flyer on a backup with special teams chops is always a possibility, but the Falcons don't need to invest heavily in targets for their veteran quarterback.
Carolina Panthers
Biggest need: Safety
Although the Panthers ostensibly do have two safeties they would consider starters, following the release of Tre Boston, they have no natural deep safety. Jeremy Chinn is a swiss-army-knife modern hybrid linebacker-safety who appears better suited to a role nearer the line of scrimmage, whereas Juston Burris is a solid veteran most teams would prefer to have as a depth option than a starter. Boston remains unsigned, but he looks unlikely to return. The team did not address his old spot during free agency, making them another candidate to spend a valuable pick at the position.
Prospect who might fit: Andre Cisco, Syracuse; Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh
Quiet need: Tight end
For a guy who was never a superstar, Greg Olsen sure has been tough to replace. Ian Thomas, Chris Manhertz, and Colin Thompson combined for just 27 catches last season, an average south of two catches per game from the position. Olsen more than doubled that on his lonesome every year from 2012 to 2016, before persistent foot injuries repeatedly kept him off the field. The free-agency addition of Dan Arnold doesn't exactly move the needle there; Arnold has just 31 catches across three seasons in Arizona and New Orleans. The Panthers aren't starved for pass targets, but a receiving tight end could have a big impact here in one of the league's best-designed offenses.
Prospects who might fit: Pat Freiermuth, Penn State; Brevin Jordan, Miami
Not a need: Wide receiver
Despite the departure of Curtis Samuel, the Panthers still have one of the best groups of pass targets in the game. Robby Anderson reunites with Sam Darnold, assuming Darnold starts over Teddy Bridgewater, after recording at least 750 yards in each of Darnold's seasons in New York. D.J. Moore is arguably the most underrated receiver in the league, and every football fan knows Christian McCaffrey's name. David Moore arrives from Seattle to provide a third option, meaning the Panthers don't need to rush out and draft a replacement for Samuel early. A late-round flyer at receiver isn't the worst idea, but they are free to invest their most valuable draft resources elsewhere.
New Orleans Saints
Biggest need: Wide receiver
Assuming the Saints genuinely believe Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill is the answer at quarterback -- itself no sure thing -- they once again need to address the issue of who, other than Michael Thomas, will catch the passes. Last season, they finally addressed their problem spot opposite Thomas by signing Emmanuel Sanders away from the 49ers. This offseason, Sanders was cut and Thomas is coming off an injury-plagued season. Current No. 2 target Tre'Quan Smith has been a breakout candidate for as long as he's been in the league, but this will be his fourth season, and he's still never exceeded 35 catches nor 450 yards. Hoping for Smith to break out puts the Saints back where they were two years ago, only this time without Drew Brees.
Prospects who might fit: Rashod Bateman, Minnesota; Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU
Quiet need: Linebacker
Kwon Alexander was the most predictable, and most predicted, salary-cap cut of the entire offseason, but his departure alongside those of Alex Anzalone and Craig Robertson leaves a major question mark next to Demario Davis in the Saints' front seven. Third-round rookie Zack Baun made a smattering of starts in 2020, but he had only 12 combined tackles all year. It's a tall ask to expect him to replace three veterans straight away. The Saints could do with, at the very least, one more strong rotational option, if not an outright starter.
Prospect who might fit: Zaven Collins, Tulsa; Jamin Davis, Kentucky
Not a need: Defensive line
Fortunately for any incoming linebacker, whoever it is will get to play behind one of the strongest defensive lines in the league. Shy Tuttle and David Onyemata kept one-time rising star defensive lineman Sheldon Rankins on the bench all year on the interior, while Cameron Jordan and Trey Hendrickson held down the edges. Hendrickson is now in Cincinnati, but the team already had his replacement lined up in Marcus Davenport. Rankins is now on the Jets roster, but he was no longer a starter anyway, and Ryan Glasgow is a solid depth option. Even with the talented departures, the Saints don't need to do much more than tune the depth.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest need: Defensive depth
In theory, the Buccaneers don't have any real needs or weaknesses at all. The Super Bowl champions were obviously among the best teams in football in 2020, and they return every starter from that championship-winning team. However, one often-overlooked aspect of that success is that they were the healthiest team in football in 2020. That was particularly true on defense, where only Vita Vea missed significant time, and even Vea returned and was healthy throughout their playoff run. Their relative weakness was shown during his absence: The Buccaneers lack defensive depth, particularly on the defensive line, at edge rusher and at safety.
It's hardly a crippling problem to have, and every other team would love to be in their shoes, but if we must pick one roster issue that qualifies as a need, this is about as close as we're going to get. Especially healthy or injured teams tend to regress toward the mean, so the Buccaneers should expect to need much more from their backups this time around.
Prospects who might fit: Christian Barmore, Alabama; Joseph Ossai, Texas
Quiet need: Quarterback
No, we aren't fools who are going to be drawn into yet again predicting Tom Brady's imminent demise. We're simply looking at the identity of Brady's sole backup: Ryan Griffin, a 31-year-old seven-year veteran who has thrown all of four passes in his career. Even Blaine Gabbert was a stronger insurance policy than Griffin, whose four career attempts all came as Jameis Winston's backup in 2019. It's possible, maybe even probable, that the Buccaneers will bring in a veteran after the draft as Brady's backup for 2021. It's just as possible, maybe even probable, that they'll pick up a young, cheaper option fresh out of college.
Prospects who might fit: Davis Mills, Stanford
Not a need: Starters
As noted above, the Buccaneers return every single starter from their Super Bowl-winning roster. They're the first team to do so since the 1970s. They are loaded at every spot: two All-Pro caliber receivers, arguably the greatest quarterback to ever play the game (and the arguments against that thesis become harder to make with every passing year), three excellent tight ends, four starter-caliber running backs, two former sack leaders on the edge, the best linebacker tandem in the game, and a very good group of young defensive backs. There is no position in this starting lineup that needs an upgrade. The rest of this offseason is just about making sure the team is able to overcome the possible absence of those starters, and perhaps bringing in long-term future replacements.
-- Andrew Potter
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals
Biggest need: Cornerback
Opponents preferred to pick on the pair of Patrick Peterson and Dre Kirkpatrick, so Arizona opted to part with its perennial Pro Bowler and his tag-team partner. With both starting cornerbacks departing in free agency (Kirkpatrick remains unsigned), the Cardinals are left hurting in the secondary.
They did sign free agent Malcolm Butler from Tennessee, but he was attacked even more than Peterson and Kirkpatrick; per Sports Info Solutions, he allowed 829 yards on 111 targets in coverage, both the highest totals in the league. He's also on the wrong side of 30. Robert Alford hasn't played since 2018 due to a broken leg and a torn pec, but he would likely be starting across from Butler if Arizona played tomorrow. The nickelback would probably be Byron Murphy, who started 16 games as a rookie in 2019 before being demoted last year, when he ranked 60th out of 80 qualifying cornerbacks in coverage success rate.
Prospects who might fit: Jaycee Horn, South Carolina; Patrick Surtain II, Alabama
Quiet need: Tight end
Kliff Kingsbury likes to use spread formations, but that doesn't mean there's no room for tight ends in his offense. Arizona quarterbacks threw 68 passes to tight ends last season, up from 46 the year before. Kingsbury also uses tight ends to set the edge in the option game for Kyler Murray, giving them more than 400 run-blocking snaps in 2020 per SIS. Top tight end Dan Arnold signed with Carolina in free agency. Incumbents Darrell Daniels and Maxx Williams combined for only 21 targets last year and are firmly in the journeyman stages of their careers. Florida's Kyle Pitts, the top tight end in the draft, won't make it to Arizona's 16th pick, but the Cardinals will be looking for a dual-threat player in later rounds.
Prospects who might fit: Pat Freiermuth, Penn State; Brevin Jordan, Miami
Not a need: Wide receiver
Start with DeAndre Hopkins, who finished second in the NFL in receptions and third in receiving yards in his first season in the desert. Then go to Christian Kirk, who gained over 600 yards as Hopkins' sidekick and also scored a half-dozen touchdowns. Now add A.J. Green, who might fare better as the third wideout in Arizona than he did as the top name in his final years in Cincinnati. That's not even counting Larry Fitzgerald, the best receiver of this century, who has yet to formally announce a decision on retirement. If all goes well, few teams will be able to boast a quartet of wide receivers on par with this one.
Los Angeles Rams
Biggest need: Secondary
The Rams' top two players in defensive snaps in 2020 -- safety John Johnson and cornerback Troy Hill -- both signed with the Cleveland Browns in free agency, and both will be hard to replace. Johnson led the team in tackles and received several votes for the AP All-Pro team. Hill started all 18 games, including the playoffs, and ranked 15th out of 80 cornerbacks in yards allowed per target, per Sports Info Solutions.
Darious Williams steps into Hill's spot as something of a question mark across from Jalen Ramsey; he was second in coverage success rate, per Sports Info Solutions, but he has only 13 starts in three NFL seasons. Only one other corner under contract was active in 2020: David Long, who scattered 116 defensive snaps across 16 games. The Rams do have options at safety; Taylor Rapp has started 15 of his 24 career games there, and L.A. also used a third-round draft pick last year on Utah's Terrell Burgess.
Prospects who might fit: Aaron Robinson, UCF; Eric Stokes, Georgia
Quiet need: Inside linebacker
Remember when we said Johnson led the Rams in tackles last year? That's not a ringing endorsement of Micah Kiser, Kenny Young or Troy Reeder, the top inside linebackers in ex-coordinator Brandon Staley's 3-4 defense. Kiser had 77 tackles in nine games and likely would have topped Johnson if not for a knee injury that knocked him out for nearly half a year, but not one of those tackles resulted in a loss of yardage. Young and Reeder each played all 16 games but managed only eight tackles for loss between them. (For comparison's sake, Chicago's Roquan Smith led all inside linebackers with 18 tackles for loss.) Kiser, Young and Reeder will all return, but L.A. could use a serious upgrade in big-play production here.
Prospect who might fit: Baron Browning, Ohio State; Amen Ogbongbemiga, Oklahoma State
Not a need: Wide receiver
This will likely never be a need for the Rams as long as Sean McVay is in charge; his offense is built around a deep corps of wide receivers that can exploit any weakness in an opponent's secondary. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp both joined the team along with McVay in 2017, and each ranks among the top 20 in receiving yardage since then. McVay also loves the end-around, and Woods was third among wideouts with 155 rushing yards in 2020.
Van Jefferson, a second-round draft pick out of Florida last year, is set to replace free-agent departure Josh Reynolds. L.A. even added DeSean Jackson, one of the NFL's top home run threats, in free agency. Jackson has led the league in yards per catch in four different seasons.
San Francisco 49ers
Biggest need: Secondary
49ers general manager John Lynch seems to have deliberately assembled a defensive backfield of talented but fragile players. It seems that every prominent member of the San Francisco secondary has a troubling history of injuries. Top cornerback Jason Verrett missed three games last year after hitting the field only six times from 2016 to 2019. K'Waun Williams missed eight games last year, and Emmanuel Moseley missed four; neither has ever started more than 11 games in a season.
At safety, Jimmie Ward has missed five games the past two years and 21 games in the three years before that, while Jaquiski Tartt missed nine games last year, 28 games in the past four. Most of the top depth players -- Briean Boddy-Calhoun, Dontae Johnson, Tavon Wilson -- are journeymen who have struggled to stick with the same team, let alone get on the field. It would be nice to have one defensive back who could be counted on to survive through 17 games.
Prospects who might fit: Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky; Eric Stokes, Georgia
Quiet need: Edge rusher
Kerry Hyder led San Francisco with 8.5 sacks last year, but he signed with Seattle in free agency. Nobody else on the roster had more than 3.5 sacks last season. Obviously, Nick Bosa's return from a torn ACL should be a big boost, but it would be nice to have a bookend on the other side of the line to prevent opponents from simply double-teaming Bosa on every play.
Prospect who might fit: Kwity Paye, Michigan; Rashad Weaver, Pittsburgh
Not a need: Running back
The 49ers have a very effective committee here. Jeff Wilson Jr. and Raheem Mostert combined for 143 rushing DYAR last season, a total that would have ranked just outside the top 10 individual runners. They combined with fullback Kyle Juszczyk to produce 133 receiving DYAR, which would have ranked among the top 10 individuals in that category. All three players will return in 2021, and you'd be hard pressed to find another backfield in the league with a trio of players so efficient. The 49ers even have further depth with youngster JaMycal Hasty and recently added veteran Wayne Gallman.
Seattle Seahawks
Biggest need: Cornerback
The Seahawks find themselves with a half dozen veteran corners of note, none of whom were full-time starters in 2020. The closest would be Pierre Desir (signed this offseason) and D.J. Reed, who started eight games apiece. Reed actually started nine of Seattle's last 10 games including the playoffs. Desir started eight games for the Jets, finishing next to last in Sports Info Solutions' cornerback rankings in both yards allowed per target and success rate (Reed ranked 22nd and 47th in his half season). Desir was cut in November and joined the Ravens, who left him inactive in the playoffs.
Other options include Tre Flowers, who started 30 games here in his first two seasons before being demoted last year; Damarious Randall, a safety the past few years in Seattle and Cleveland who once started at cornerback in Green Bay; Ugo Amadi, who has split his spot-duty time between nickelback and safety; and Ahkello Witherspoon, who started only 12 of 21 games the past two years with the 49ers.
Prospects who might fit: Aaron Robinson, UCF; Eric Stokes, Georgia
Quiet need: Third receiver
Seattle's top two wide receivers are about as good a duo as you'll find in the NFL: DK Metcalf finished fifth among wideouts in our receiving value metrics, while Tyler Lockett was 14th. The talent pool behind that pair, however, is an abyss as cold and dark as the depths of Puget Sound.
The other wide receivers on the roster have a total of 16 career catches -- or, one more than Lockett had in a single game against Arizona in Week 7 of last year. The top option off the bench would be Freddie Swain, a sixth-round rookie out of Florida last year whose best game was a three-catch, 37-yard outing in a Week 10 loss to the Rams.
Prospect who might fit: Amon-Ra St. Brown, USC; Tutu Atwell, Louisville
Not a need: Pass rusher
Seattle started addressing this area in October, when it traded for Cincinnati's Carlos Dunlap. The Seahawks released him in March but were able to re-sign him a few weeks later. They also signed Kerry Hyder (who led San Francisco with 8.5 sacks last year) and Aldon Smith (who had 5.0 sacks with Dallas). Smith's future is now in jeopardy following a battery charge in Louisiana, but Seattle also hopes to get production from Darrell Taylor, a second-round pick out of Tennessee in 2020 who missed his entire rookie year after knee surgery.
And if all those players somehow fail, the Seahawks still have Benson Mayowa (6.0 sacks last year) and even Jamal Adams (9.5 sacks, a defensive back record, in only 12 games).
-- Vincent Verhei
AFC East
Buffalo Bills
Biggest need: Edge rusher
Buffalo is in the pleasant spot of not needing much, having re-signed nearly every significant free agent it had coming into the offseason. The needs are more about tweaking an already championship-ready roster to help the Bills get over the final hump; there are no holes big enough to justify reaching for a prospect. With that in mind, it might be helpful to sack Patrick Mahomes on occasion. While Buffalo was fifth in defensive pressure rate last season, the Bills were only 14th in adjusted sack rate -- at times, especially early on in the year, they struggled to convert those pressures into negative plays for the offense. While the defense as a whole was solid enough to not require instant pressure on a week-in, week-out basis to have success, it isn't a coincidence that three of Buffalo's four losses last season saw them record one or zero sacks. In addition, both Jerry Hughes and Mario Addison are on the wrong side of 30, and neither is under contract for 2022.
Prospects who might fit: Jaelan Phillips, Miami; Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
Quiet need: Cornerback
While Tre'Davious White remains one of the top corners in the game, the Bills have at least minor question marks both with the starter across from him and with depth in general. Sports Info Solutions charting ranked Levi Wallace 61st out of 80 qualified cornerbacks with a 46.4% success rate in coverage; rumors have last year's seventh-round pick, Dane Jackson, challenging him for the starting role in 2021. In addition, Josh Norman remains unsigned; he was on the field for 344 defensive snaps last season. Adding a Day 2 cornerback to help fill that hole makes a lot of sense, and more competition for Wallace is never a bad thing.
Prospects who might fit: Tyson Campbell, Georgia; Ifeatu Melifonwu, Syracuse
Not a need: Wide receiver
Yes, John Brown was released this offseason to save cap room, but that move became very easy thanks to the emergence of Gabriel Davis. Stefon Diggs was second in receiving DYAR last season, Cole Beasley was 10th in DVOA, and Davis managed a top-32 ranking in both -- when you have a starting-caliber receiver as your third guy, you're in pretty good shape. The Bills have also added Emmanuel Sanders for a perimeter guy in three- or four-receiver sets, and they still have Isaiah McKenzie as a rotational gadget player and return guy. There just isn't room for another prospect.
Miami Dolphins
Biggest need: Offensive line
With Miami's pre-draft trades seemingly locking Tua Tagovailoa in as the starting quarterback for the foreseeable future, it's time to give him the tools he needs to succeed on offense. You could make a decent argument for adding a top receiver, but the Dolphins' existing trio of Will Fuller V, DeVante Parker and Preston Williams isn't the worst to run with. We're not saying to avoid Kyle Pitts or Ja'Marr Chase, but Miami's receiving corps is at least respectable at the moment. The same can't really be said about the offensive line. The Dolphins were one of five teams to rank 20th or worse in both adjusted line yards and adjusted sack rate, and they duplicated the feat in ESPN's pass block and run block win rates. Both Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tagovailoa finished in the bottom 10 in time to throw last season, per Next Gen Stats; some of that was by design, but some of that was due to a lack of confidence in the big men up front. All five positions could stand to be upgraded.
Prospects who might fit: Penei Sewell, Oregon; Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Quiet need: Off-ball linebacker
Miami certainly hasn't been quiet about the fact it felt it needed to improve in the center of the defense. The Dolphins traded for former Pro Bowler Benardrick McKinney, re-signed Elandon Roberts, and brought in Duke Riley in free agency, all to bolster the inside linebacking group. These moves bump linebacker away from the top tier of Miami's needs, but we're not entirely sure this fixes the problems. McKinney missed most of last season with a shoulder injury and had shown some signs of slipping in 2019 -- his success rate in coverage dropped to 25%. McKinney should help improve a run defense that ranked 22nd in 2020 with a -2.3% DVOA, and Miami shouldn't be in the conversation for Micah Parsons or Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah anymore. But believing this offseason has fully patched the hole in the center of the defense would seem overly optimistic; a third- or fourth-round prospect would be a wise investment.
Prospect who might fit: Chazz Surratt, North Carolina; Jabril Cox, LSU
Not a need: Cornerback
Xavien Howard is in the running for the title of best cornerback in football, and the Dolphins brought in free agent Byron Jones and first-round pick Noah Igbinoghene last offseason as a hedge against Howard's health. That gives the Dolphins two high-priced starters and a high draft pick on the boundaries, and it's hard to imagine them wanting to spend more capital on the position, considering they ranked sixth in pass defense with a -4.1% DVOA. They also just added Justin Coleman to compete with Nik Needham at slot corner. While we suppose that you can never have enough bodies in the secondary, the Dolphins have enough needs elsewhere to ignore corner this year.
New England Patriots
Biggest need: Quarterback
It's fair to give Cam Newton somewhat of a pass for last season, thanks to his bout with Covid-19, a shoulder injury and the strange nature of the offseason. It's also fair to note that we haven't seen a healthy Newton since 2017 and may never see one again. While they ignored the position in the 2020 draft, at some point the Patriots need to find a long-term replacement for Tom Brady. They spent most of this offseason bringing in free agents to fix holes elsewhere on the roster, which may give them the wiggle room they need to trade up for one of the five first-round quarterbacks in this year's draft -- it's easier to give up picks if you feel you don't have a lot of needs. If they sit tight at 15, they'll likely miss out on the top group and have to wade through an uninspiring middle class on Day 2.
Prospects who might fit: Justin Fields, Ohio State; Mac Jones, Alabama
Quiet need: Defensive tackle
New England brought in Devon Godchaux, Henry Anderson and Montravius Adams to provide depth to a defensive line that ranked 31st in adjusted line yards and 30th in short-yardage success rate last season, but the key word there is "depth." These are mid-tier, rotational players without a lot of upside to them. And none of them provides any real interior pass-rushing threat, something the Patriots definitely could use.
Prospects who might fit: Levi Onwuzurike, Washington; Christian Barmore, Alabama
Not a need: Tight end
You can question whether signing both Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith to long-term deals is a good use of resources or not; at $12.5 million a year apiece, they are tied as the third-most expensive tight ends in the league behind George Kittle and Travis Kelce. It certainly takes the position off the draft board when coupled with the pair of third-round picks the Patriots used on tight ends in last year's draft.
New York Jets
Biggest need: Quarterback
Entering this offseason, the Jets had the worst roster in the NFL. Their stable of cornerbacks was just about empty; they didn't have much in the way of a pass rush; they spent last year wasting carries on Frank Gore rather than developing a young running back; they had an atrocious receiving corps and offensive line. Almost any warm body they pick in the first round would be a massive improvement over what they currently have. But the trade of Sam Darnold clears up any lingering questions anyone might have. The Jets will pick a quarterback with the second overall selection. They haven't had a passer top 5.0% DVOA since 2006, the longest drought in the league. Go get a passer, Gang Green.
Prospects who might fit: Zach Wilson, BYU; Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Quiet need: Edge rusher
Again, no needs are "quiet" for the Jets, but signing Carl Lawson does drop the pass rush to a secondary tier of New York needs. Lawson had 25 pass pressures in 2020; the leading Jets edge rusher a year ago was Tarell Basham with 19, but he's gone, leaving Bryce Huff's 10 as the leader in the clubhouse. That kind of tells the story. While Lawson is very good and the interior line is an actual strength for the Jets, they still need more bodies on the edges for Robert Saleh's Wide 9 defense. There's a reason his teams in San Francisco struggled until Nick Bosa came along. Rather than debate starting Huff or moving John Franklin-Myers to the outside, a Day 2 draft pick to work opposite Lawson would be a huge help.
Prospects who might fit: Joe Tryon, Washington; Gregory Rousseau, Miami
Not a need: Defensive line
Saleh's rebuild at least gets off to a good start in the middle, with Quinnen Williams and Foley Fatukasi both standing out in the interior. The aforementioned John Franklin-Myers led the Jets last season with 28 pass pressures, and Sheldon Rankins is an intriguing buy-low possibility after suffering an Achilles injury two years ago. One position down, many to go.
-- Bryan Knowles
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens
Biggest need: Wide receiver
It's apparent even to novice football fans that the Ravens play a style that minimizes -- almost ostracizes -- wide receivers. The highest-placing wideout in DYAR on the team was deep threat Marquise Brown, who finished 58th in the league. The position group in Charm City is muted in favor of the running game and Lamar Jackson's singular skills, which don't tend to cater to top-end wideouts.
Still, an all-around talent who can make plays in the air regardless of the scheme would make the offense virtually unstoppable, and since Baltimore couldn't get any of the available free agents who fit that description to take its money, the team will have to find one in the draft -- where, fortunately, several could be available late in the first round.
Prospects who might fit: Terrace Marshall Jr., LSU; Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Quiet need: Edge rusher
The edge group is currently a mixture of post-prime vets (Calais Campbell, Derek Wolfe, Pernell McPhee) and unproven youth (Tyus Bowser, Jaylon Ferguson). The Ravens have a history of turning backups into elite rushers, who then leave in free agency, rinse and repeat. But the position could use an infusion of new players to partake in that process.
Prospect who might fit: Ronnie Perkins, Oklahoma; Payton Turner, Houston
Not a need: Cornerback
Generally speaking, you can never have enough corners (unless you are playing against the Ravens, perhaps). But with Marlon Humphrey, Marcus Peters, Tavon Young and the ageless Jimmy Smith back in town, Baltimore feels set for the immediate future at the position. The Ravens were 10th against the pass by DVOA in 2020, even with the muted pass rush, which is a testament to the excellent coverage.
Cincinnati Bengals
Biggest need: Offensive line
The sight of franchise quarterback Joe Burrow writhing on the ground in agony with an injured knee filled Bengals fans with two feelings; a) nausea, and b) bittersweet vindication, having warned the team that sending out a line with the consistency of polenta would endanger Burrow's health. The unit finished 31st in adjusted line yards, so it wasn't getting the run game moving, either.
Free agent Riley Reiff was signed to handle right tackle, allowing the team to jettison Bobby Hart, but the interior still needs a massive upgrade. Mainly, the team requires more talent across the unit, and is in the position to add either a pair of top-flight possibilities, both of whom may be asked to kick inside for a year before, um, tackling tackle.
Prospect who might fit: Penei Sewell, Oregon; Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
Quiet need: Wide receiver
Okay, not so quiet. A fierce debate has broken out among Bengals fans torn between the "Protect Burrow" and "Give Burrow Weapons!" groups. Undoubtedly, Cincy lacks a true perimeter speed receiver, with former top-10 picks A.J. Green and John Ross gone; even with those two around, the team struggled mightily to throw it long in 2020.
This draft class is relatively deep in wideouts, but not necessarily receivers who fill that precise X role which would complement Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd in three-wide sets. Because of that, the Bengals could easily wait on a lineman until Day 2 and at No. 5 select a player with whom Burrow is quite familiar.
Prospects who might fit: Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
Not a need: Quarterback
The good news: Cincinnati is in the enviable position of possessing a top-5 pick while already having a young franchise quarterback on his rookie deal.
The bad news: That leaves the Bengals in the position of having to decide between players, positions and draft strategies, a situation that has seldom worked out well in recent years for the team.
Cleveland Browns
Biggest need: Defensive line
The edge rusher spot opposite the otherworldly Myles Garrett has been addressed -- to a point -- with one-year, prove-it deals given to Jadeveon Clowney and Takkarist McKinley. Of course, the vets were available at little cost for a reason, and last week the Browns sent defensive tackle Sheldon Richardson packing, after already swapping inside man Larry Ogunjobi out for Malik Jackson in free agency.
The turnover leaves the Browns' front in a state of flux and needing depth. The latter portion of the first round is a sweet spot for this year's front-four talent, and a pick there would be able to ease in as a rotational player at the very least.
Prospects who might fit: Jayson Oweh, Penn State; Levi Onwuzurike, Washington
Quiet need: Linebacker
The Browns were 28th in DVOA in covering opposing tight ends in 2020, and 23rd in covering enemy running backs receiving passes out of the backfield, and plenty of that ineptitude fell on the team's linebackers. Free-agent acquisition Anthony Walker will help in the middle, but the Sione Takitaki/Jacob Philips/Malcolm Smith combo outside could certainly use a talent boost.
Prospect who might fit: Jabril Cox, LSU
Not a need: Offensive line
The overnight resuscitation of what was a poor unit in 2019, thanks to the addition of tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills Jr., not to mention the ministrations of offensive line coach Bill Callahan, powered the team to the divisional round of the AFC playoffs (Cleveland finished sixth in adjusted line yards). Depth may be addressed, but the front five are back and are uniformly stalwart.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Biggest need: Offensive line
Pittsburgh's glaring inability to run the ball in 2020 (30th in rush DVOA) was jarring to longtime fans of the Black and Gold. Most of that fell on the O-line, which finished dead last in adjusted line yards. Longtime center fixture Maurkice Pouncey retired, tackle Alejandro Villanueva is expected to ply his trade elsewhere, and versatile Matt Feiler left in free agency. The unit needs bodies and talent, and a deep pool of linemen will provide opportunity for just such a move.
Prospects who might fit: Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State; Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
Quiet need: Running back
The other part of the running game, the ball carrier, might well be addressed first, given the relative paucity of top backfield prospects versus linemen in the draft. James Connor is now in Arizona, leaving Benny Snell Jr. and his 794 career yards at the top of the depth chart, for the moment. There is little doubt Pittsburgh will draft a back; the question is how long they wait.
Prospects who might fit: Travis Etienne, Clemson; Javonte Williams, North Carolina
Not a need: Wide receiver
The surprising return of JuJu Smith-Schuster has the receiver corps in good shape for the Last Stand of Ben Roethlisberger. Chase Claypool, Diontae Johnson and James Washington join with Smith-Schuster to provide the team with a strong group with disparate and complementary skills.
-- Robert Weintraub
AFC South
Houston Texans
Biggest need: Quarterback
Imagine a situation where Deshaun Watson is either traded after the draft, sits out or serves a suspension due to his legal troubles, and the team has no recourse to solving things this year. Tyrod Taylor is a solid backup quarterback but will be exposed over 16 games. The Texans traded for Ryan Finley, but he has little in his history that says he will be a solution. Taking one of their few picks to make a stab for a mid-round quarterback who has some potential might be a good way to spin the wheel this year. You might get nothing from that spin, but NFL quarterback evals haven't been flawless recently, and this was an incredibly difficult year for scouts to do all the work they'd like. If you hit on a mid-round quarterback and wind up with a Dak Prescott, that's the biggest win this team can have right now.
Prospect who might fit: Davis Mills, Stanford; Kellen Mond, Texas A&M
Quiet need: Off-ball linebacker
While the Texans showed confidence in Zach Cunningham with a big contract extension right before last season, he was a boom-bust run player last year who gave up some big runs on bad angles. Per Sports Info Solutions charting, he had a league-high 21 missed tackles. He wasn't much better on play-action passes. Outside of that, the team brought in several free agents to compete for spots. Christian Kirksey, Kevin Pierre-Louis, Joe Thomas and Kam Grugier-Hill are the main players in that competition. While there are other weak areas on the Houston defense, there are few with as little upside youth as at linebacker.
Prospect who might fit: Jamin Davis, Kentucky
Not a need: Offensive tackle
Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Roderick Johnson combine to create a stellar depth chart at tackle. Howard has flashes of greatness, and Johnson showed a lot in run blocking with a small sample towards the end of last season.
Indianapolis Colts
Biggest need: Edge rusher
With the price paid to get Carson Wentz probably too prohibitive for the Colts to trade up for a young quarterback of the future, eyes shift to the defense. Though the team has maintained contact with Justin Houston, losing Denico Autry to the Titans means that the only player from last year's roster with more than four sacks is DeForest Buckner. The Colts could use another true disruptor, and the 21st overall pick could get them in the conversation for most of the draft's big names there, with perhaps a couple being off the board at that point. Al-Quadin Muhammad led the team in pressures per SIS charting at 22 -- as good as the defense was last year, a real force on the edge working with Buckner would amp up the coverage even more.
Prospect who might fit: Jaelan Phillips, Miami
Quiet need: Offensive tackle
The retirement of Anthony Castonzo puts the Colts into a bit of a bind on the line, with recently signed Julien Davenport and Sam Tevi as the obvious in-house solutions. To call this a quiet need might be putting it too mildly, as Tevi's play last year led to 27 blown blocks in just 14 starts, and Davenport hasn't played a real role since starting with the 2018 Texans. Tackle is a strength of this draft, and there are a few possible answers that could be around even at Indy's second-round pick.
Prospect who might fit: Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State; James Hudson, Cincinnati
Not a need: Interior defensive line
Between Buckner and Grover Stewart, the Colts have an interior that can get pass pressure and be stout at the point of attack against the run. That's hard to find, and while they might consider a backup at the position, it would have to be pretty clearly the best player on their board by a lot to draft a defensive tackle in the first couple of rounds.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Biggest need: Quarterback
Well, not for long.
Prospect who might fit: Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Quiet need: Offensive tackle
Jawaan Taylor and Cam Robinson each finished last year tied for first in blown blocks for offensive linemen at 42 per Sports Info Solutions charting, and Robinson was franchise tagged and may not be a long-term solution for the Jaguars. To be sure, the quarterback play last year was inconsistent and may merit giving Taylor more of a leash, but finding a tackle of the future to take over for Robinson and protect the presumptive No. 1 overall pick would make a lot of sense.
Prospect who might fit: Sam Cosmi, Texas; Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Not a need: Wide receiver
Jacksonville signed consistent top-30 DVOA finisher (each of the last five years) Marvin Jones Jr. to pair with D.J. Chark Jr. and Laviska Shenault Jr., and they have solid depth at the position in Phillip Dorsett and Collin Johnson. They could still pick a wideout; it's a loaded class, but it may not be done early unless it's clearly a best-player-on-the-board situation.
Tennessee Titans
Biggest need: Pass-catchers
With Corey Davis, who finished ninth in receiving DVOA last year, and Adam Humphries both gone, as well as tight end Jonnu Smith, there's a severe lack of pass-catching targets on the roster not named A.J. Brown. Josh Reynolds was brought in as a free agent, and he has done good work on play-action with Jared Goff, but beyond that the Titans have Cameron Batson, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Chester Rogers on the depth chart. There's not exactly a lot of depth at tight end either beyond Anthony Firkser. The Arthur Smith/Ryan Tannehill offense has done yeoman's work creating good small sample results with lesser receivers, but you can't make the whole offense out of that. The Titans might not use their first-round pick on a receiver in what's considered a deep class, but if the right receiver falls to 22, that could be tempting.
Prospect who might fit: Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
Quiet need: Right tackle
Remember Isaiah Wilson, last year's first-round pick? Titans fans do, but they're about the only ones, after his year spent away from the team, trade to Miami and subsequent release. That was supposed to be the future at right tackle, and instead with Wilson and Dennis Kelly gone, the team is looking at Kendall Lamm and Ty Sambrailo as potential starters on the right side. It hurts to have to dip this again right after the Wilson fiasco, but the Titans knew they needed to fix this last year, and they assuredly still know that after how the pick turned out.
Prospects who might fit: Liam Eichenberg, Notre Dame; Jalen Mayfield, Michigan
Not a need: Interior defensive line
Jeffrey Simmons had a terrific ascent last year for the Titans, and after signing Denico Autry away from the Colts, they've got quite a bit of juice inside. They still could look for some depth or another nose-tackle sort of guy here, but it's an unlikely spot for an early pick.
-- Rivers McCown
AFC West
Denver Broncos
Biggest need: Quarterback
Drew Lock did not take the step forward for which many were hoping in 2020. Lock produced a decent 138 DYAR and 48.2 QBR in his five starts as a rookie in 2019. Those numbers were not eye-popping, but they were not the worst in the league, and he had some flashes on film to get excited over. In 2020, however, Lock plummeted to -87 DYAR (30th of 36) while only completing 57.3% of his passes and tossing 16 touchdowns compared to a whopping 15 interceptions. Lock was surely hurt by the absence of Courtland Sutton for most of the year, but things still should not have gone as poorly for the second-year quarterback as they did.
Prospects who might fit: Trey Lance, North Dakota State; Justin Fields, Ohio State
Quiet need: Secondary
The secondary does not need immediate help. Justin Simmons and Kareem Jackson return to start at safety, while nickelback Bryce Callahan has now been joined by outside corners Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby in free agency, both of whom posted at least a 57% success rate in converge last year.
But beyond Simmons -- who signed a four-year deal after being tagged -- few of these players are sticking around for long. Jackson is a 34-year-old with a one-year deal in place. Callahan is also in the final year of his contract, while Fuller was inked for just one year this offseason. It is possible Denver will have to revamp much of their secondary for 2022 and they would be smart to get out ahead of things.
Prospect who might fit: Paulson Adebo, Stanford
Not a need: Pass catchers
Finding open pass catchers should not be an issue for whoever is behind center for the Broncos. Courtland Sutton established himself as a good (albeit not dominant) X receiver in 2019 before missing most of 2020 with a knee injury. Thankfully, 2020 first-round pick Jerry Jeudy stepped up in his stead. Jeudy managed to bring in only 46% of his 113 targets, which is in part because of some shaky hands, but Denver's inaccurate quarterback play had a much bigger role in Jeudy's inconsistent production.
Tight end Noah Fant also continued to produce, though he was not quite as explosive considering Lock took a step back. Package those three players together with Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler filling in as tertiary options, and it is hard to find many offenses who outclass Denver when it comes to young pass catchers.
Kansas City Chiefs
Biggest need: Pass rusher
Frank Clark may not fully be living up to the deal to which the Chiefs signed him when they traded for him prior to 2019, but he is still a quality starter. Clark needs a partner on the other side, though.
Alex Okafor was Kansas City's second-most productive edge defender in the sack department last year (3.0), but he is not returning. The Chiefs are left with Mike Danna, a competent 2020 fifth-rounder who is more of a run defender, and failed Cowboys first-round pick Taco Charlton. They need to add to this group by the time they get to training camp.
Prospects who might fit: Payton Turner, Houston; Jayson Oweh, Penn State
Quiet need: Linebacker
The Chiefs spent a second-round pick on Willie Gay Jr. last year, but he did not immediately solve their problems. Gay was on and off the field throughout the year, which is not particularly encouraging considering the players ahead of him. Kansas City's primary issue is how poor all of their linebackers were in coverage. Anthony Hitchens, Damien Wilson and Ben Niemann all saw at least 10 targets in coverage last year, yet none of them earned a success rate better than 43% on those targets. Gay also surrendered five catches on seven targets, per Sports Info Solutions. Of the group, Wilson is not returning in 2021. The Chiefs need a makeover at linebacker.
Prospects who might fit: Jabril Cox, LSU
Not a need: Interior offensive line
Kansas City hit the interior offensive line hard in free agency in an effort to avoid having their entire 2021 season look like the Super Bowl. Joe Thuney, a former franchise-tagged player from the Patriots, headlines the Chiefs' moves. Among guards with at least 500 total snaps in 2020, the only guard with fewer blown blocks than Thuney was four-time All-Pro Zack Martin.
Alongside Thuney, the Chiefs also brought in Austin Blythe (Rams) and Kyle Long, who is coming off of a sort-of hiatus year in 2020. Blythe is far from a superstar, and Long is a bit of a gamble, but both players should be immediate upgrades to some degree, with Long having some serious potential to return to Pro Bowl caliber.
Las Vegas Raiders
Biggest need: Right tackle
Trent Brown is headed back to New England after spending two seasons with the Raiders. Though Brown missed much of last season and arguably did not quite live up to the contract the Raiders gave him in 2019, losing an above-average right tackle in free agency still hurts. Las Vegas' current answer at the position in 2018 third-round pick Brandon Parker, who surrendered eight blown blocks in 187 pass-protection snaps last year.
Prospects who might fit: Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
Quiet need: Safety
All the draft picks and free agency spending the Raiders have made at safety over the past handful of years have not mattered. Karl Joseph, a former Raiders first-round pick who was with Cleveland last year, is back with the team, but that is not enough. Jonathan Abram -- a first-rounder in 2019 -- struggles to do much of anything in the pass game, surrendering a putrid 40% success rate on 30 targets last year. Last year's free-agent signing Jeff Heath is still around as well, but his poor tackling and volatility in coverage makes it uncomfortable to start him for an extended period of time.
Prospect who might fit: Damar Hamlin, Pittsburgh; Hamsah Nasirildeen, Florida St.
Not a need: Tight end
The Raiders are set at tight end. Darren Waller has come on strong over the past couple seasons as one of the best tight ends in the league, particularly as a field-stretcher. Only Travis Kelce (Chiefs) and Robert Tonyan (Packers) finished 2020 with more DYAR than Waller. Depth is not an issue for Las Vegas, either. Foster Moreau is no star, but he is a steady run blocker with enough contested-catch ability to serve as a strong No.2 behind Waller, as well as a serviceable No.1 in a pinch.
Los Angeles Chargers
Biggest need: Left tackle
The Chargers completely overhauled their offensive line this offseason. At least for now, however, the left tackle position remains untouched. Trey Pipkins is still the projected starting tackle, which is a nightmare scenario for Justin Hebert. Among tackles with at least 300 pass protection snaps, only five blew more blocks in 2020 than Pipkins, and there is little reason to believe he will be taking a step forward next season.
It is hard to imagine a scenario where the Chargers leave the top two rounds of the draft without addressing left tackle.
Prospects who might fit: Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
Quiet need: Cornerback
Chris Harris Jr. is still among the league's best nickel cornerbacks, when healthy. Harris held a solid 53.8% success rate in coverage last season, but missed the middle portion of the year with a foot injury. The Chargers lost Casey Hayward Jr. this offseason, though. Their only other competent cornerback aside from Harris is Michael Davis, who surely should not be faced up against opposing No.1 wide receivers on a routine basis. The Chargers should consider adding some help to the cornerback room on Day 2.
Prospect who might fit: Tyson Campbell, Georgia; Kelvin Joseph, Kentucky
Not a need: Interior offensive line
The Chargers made a valiant effort to protect quarterback Herbert this offseason. Not only did they break the bank for center Corey Linsley, who surrendered just two blown blocks in pass protection last year, but they also shored up both guard spots. Oday Aboushi excelled with the Lions last year, only giving up three blown blocks on 389 pass protection snaps. Matt Feiler, a tackle with Pittsburgh last year who may play guard for the Chargers, also only gave up six blown blocks in pass protection.
-- Derrik Klassen