With 2021 NFL draft prospects all over the field, I'm fired up for Ohio State-Alabama in the College Football Playoff National Championship on Monday night (8 ET, ESPN and the ESPN app).
There's Heisman Trophy winner Alabama receiver DeVonta Smith. There are two potential first-round quarterbacks in Ohio State's Justin Fields -- coming off a show-stopping six-touchdown game against Clemson -- and Alabama's Mac Jones. And there are great running backs, defensive backs and defensive linemen squaring off.
My pal Todd McShay had his early first-round mock draft on Thursday, so now it's my turn to talk more about this draft class -- here's the order for the top 18 picks -- starting with all of the talent in this game. Let's answer 15 questions and break down the best prospects from the Buckeyes and Crimson Tide. Could Fields go No. 1 overall? How high could Jones go? Which team has the better running back? Here we go:
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Is Justin Fields now in the conversation to be the No. 1 pick?
No. He's not. Fields was tremendous in the win over Clemson, but he has put out some bad tape in two games this season. That performance was more about getting him back into the top-five discussion. He threw five interceptions, took eight sacks and completed 52.5% of his passes over two games against Indiana and Northwestern. Fields made some plays with his legs, but he looked out of sorts in the pocket. He missed some easy throws. There was some buzz inside the league about what was going on with him.
Now, he answered critics with his performance, and he showed why he has an elite ceiling. But Clemson quarterback Trevor Lawrence is going to the Jacksonville Jaguars with the No. 1 pick. The draft starts at No. 2.
How close is the No. 2 QB battle between Fields and BYU's Zach Wilson?
Now this is where it gets interesting. We're really splitting hairs at this point in the process, and some teams will prefer Fields while others prefer Wilson. There's not going to be a consensus. Both have NFL-level arm talent; they can make every throw to any part of the field. Both throw intermediate routes with anticipation. Fields is a better athlete, but Wilson has the edge as a decision-maker -- he cut down on turnovers this season. The question with Wilson is about the kind of competition BYU played.
McShay has moved Wilson over Fields, but I'm not ready to do that just yet. Fields' ceiling is just too high. Again, though, there's a long time until the draft. What Fields and Wilson do at the combine and in interviews with teams really matters.
What is Mac Jones' ceiling in the 2021 draft?
He could go in the middle of Round 1. What about to New England at No. 15? The Alabama quarterback has made a huge leap this season, going from fringe prospect to potential first-round pick. But as an athlete, he's not on the level of Lawrence, Fields and Wilson. He is more of a classic pocket passer; he's not going to beat defenses on the run. Jones, however, has shown elite accuracy, especially on deep throws, and it has been fun to watch his touch on throws to DeVonta Smith.
Will the Buckeyes' defense pressure Jones on Monday? If he is given time to sit in the pocket, he's going to pick apart Ohio State -- and find the Heisman Trophy winner Smith for a few more scores.
Does DeVonta Smith have a legit chance to go in the top five?
Definitely. He's No. 4 on my Big Board right now, and there's a natural connection to Miami at No. 3 because Tua Tagovailoa, his former quarterback, is there and because of the Dolphins' need for playmakers. And he'd be a great addition there. Smith is silky smooth, a fluid route runner who knows how to bait cornerbacks into making the wrong decision. With 40 touchdown catches over the past three seasons, he has continued to get better every year. At 6-foot-1, 175 pounds, he has a slight frame -- McShay has compared his body and style to Hall of Famer Marvin Harrison, and I agree. Smith is going to be a superstar.
Which team has the best draft talent?
It's Alabama if we're talking about top-tier talent, though Ohio State has a bunch of draftable prospects. I count eight Crimson Tide players who could go in the first two rounds: Smith, Jones, CB Patrick Surtain, DT Christian Barmore, RB Najee Harris, OT Alex Leatherwood, WR Jaylen Waddle (who has been out since October but could play Monday) and C Landon Dickerson (who is out for the game). I have five for Ohio State: Fields, RB Trey Sermon, G Wyatt Davis, WR Chris Olave and CB Shaun Wade.
So even with Dickerson out and Waddle's status uncertain, Bama gets the slight edge.
Is Trey Sermon or Najee Harris the better running back prospect?
Harris is my No. 1 back, and I've moved Sermon all the way up to No. 3. The Oklahoma transfer has had a phenomenal finish to the season for the Buckeyes; in his past three games, he has rushed for 636 yards with four touchdowns while averaging 9.1 yards per carry. He has boosted his draft stock, but Harris is more consistent and is a much more polished receiver -- he has 63 catches and 10 touchdowns over the past two seasons. Testing at the combine will be important for both, but give me Harris for now.
How high could Patrick Surtain go in this draft?
So much about where defensive backs get drafted depends on the combine. Does the Alabama cornerback have stellar straight-line speed, or is he just middle of the pack? What about the other athletic testing drills? Those results could be the difference between being a top-five pick and falling to the second half of Round 1. Based on what I've studied on tape, Surtain has tremendous instincts and is as fundamentally sound as any cornerback in the country. And I think he has enough speed to be a top-10 pick. McShay had him at No. 10 to Dallas, and I think he could go as high as No. 8 to Carolina.
Who is Ohio State's best prospect on defense?
The Buckeyes don't have an elite prospect on that side of the ball. Cornerback Shaun Wade is their best prospect, but he didn't have a great season after moving outside from slot corner. I expected much more after he became Ohio State's top corner, but he was beaten too often. He had a top-15 grade before the season, but now he could fall to Round 2. Wade is going to have his hands full with DeVonta Smith on Monday night, but if he plays the way he did in 2019, the Buckeyes have a chance to slow down the Alabama offense.
Linebackers Pete Werner and Baron Browning are likely to be third- or fourth-round picks.
Who are the future NFL offensive linemen we should know in this game?
Alabama's Landon Dickerson, my top-ranked center, injured his knee and will sit out this game, but there are some solid linemen prospect. Ohio State has my No. 2 guard Wyatt Davis. McShay put him at the end of Round 1, and he'd be an instant starter next season. Alabama's Alex Leatherwood is my No. 5 tackle; he plays on the left but projects to be a right tackle in the NFL. He could be a top-50 pick. Ohio State center Josh Myers, Alabama guard Deonte Brown and versatile Crimson Tide linemen Chris Owens -- who's starting at center for Dickerson -- are likely to be Day 3 picks.
What about defensive linemen?
It might surprise you, but Alabama's Christian Barmore is probably the only first-round defensive linemen in this matchup, and he's not a lock. The 6-foot-5, 310-pound tackle has come on lately with five sacks in his past five games. That pass-rush upside could put him into the first round. If Barmore & Co. can get to Fields, that will be trouble for the Buckeyes. LaBryan Ray will also get drafted.
The Buckeyes don't have a Chase Young on this defense line, but they have a solid if unspectacular core with Jonathon Cooper, Tommy Togiai, Haskell Garrett and Tyreke Smith leading the way. I expect all four to be drafted on Day 3.
Dylan Moses was a big-time recruit. Where could he get drafted?
The former five-star linebacker had a tremendous 2018 season for the Crimson Tide and looked like a potential first-rounder. But he missed last season because of an ACL tear in August, and he hasn't looked as explosive this season. At 6-foot-3, 240 pounds, he was never a downhill, thumping linebacker, but he hasn't showed off an all-around skill set in 2020. I have a late Day 2, early Day 3 grade on him now, but he could rise if he shows he's back to 100% at the combine in March.
Could Chris Olave boost his stock with another great game?
Yes. He is a really good player, one of the most effective deep-ball receivers in this class. He lulls cornerbacks into a false sense of security with his routes and then accelerates by them. Just watch him track the ball on this 56-yard touchdown catch against Clemson. And that's potential first-rounder Derion Kendrick that he beat. It's also important to note how out of rhythm Fields was without Olave on the field in the Northwestern game, when Fields had his worst performance of the season. Olave is one of the most important players on the field Monday night.
I know McShay has Olave in the 20s in his first mock, and right now I have him as my No. 7 wideout in this class. I expect him to be in the first-round mix in April. It's another loaded class of receivers, but he can move up if he outperforms Patrick Surtain.
Who is your favorite under-the-radar prospect in this game?
Ohio State defensive tackle Haskell Garrett will find a role in the NFL. At 6-foot-2, 299 pounds, he's disruptive off the snap. He could be a late-round steal. I also like Alabama backup running back Brian Robinson Jr., who would probably start at most other schools in the country. He's probably not going to get many touches with Harris used so often, but he'll take advantage of all of his snaps.
Which 2022 prospect will you be watching closely?
Sophomore Alabama linebacker Christian Harris is a tremendous athlete with sideline-to-sideline range. I want to see him blow up plays in the run and pass game. At 6-foot-2, 230 pounds, he had 73 total tackles, 4.5 sacks and an interceptions this season. He has a chance to be a first-round pick next year.
OK, make your pick: Who wins this game?
I'm not picking against Alabama. It has too much talent and too much depth. It's amazing how much Nick Saban & Co. reload every year.