It seems like every year in studying the NFL draft that we hear "Wait until next year's class!" as the next big thing often seems greater than the current one. The 2021 class, though? The quarterbacks who will be eligible in that class look considerably more promising than what we saw this time last year for the 2020 class.
It's not hyperbole to say that the 2021 class could offer elite quarterback prospects at the top end the likes of which we haven't seen since Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III went 1-2 in 2012.
So how does next year's class stack up head to head with this year's? Here's how we'd rank the quarterbacks in a combined class if they all could have entered the 2020 draft, based on Pro Football Focus' draft board (all statistics from PFF):
1. Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
Ranking in 2021 class: No. 1
One doesn't carve up a loaded Alabama defense on the biggest stage as a true freshman without being something special. No quarterback prospect since Luck has allowed his college team to open up the entire playbook in the way Lawrence has at Clemson. Manipulating the pocket, playing on the move, throwing the far-hash deep comeback, running options -- you name it, Lawrence can do it.
The only thing we haven't quite seen him do is reach that next level in the PFF grading system. He earned a 90.7 overall grade as a freshman (a PFF freshman record) and 91.0 as a sophomore (Joe Burrow was at 95.0, for comparison). Lawrence had some accuracy issues pop up at times in 2019. If you take away screens and run-pass options (RPOs), Lawrence completed only 50% of his passes through the first seven games. While he dominated down the stretch, this issue reared its ugly head again in the national title game with a ridiculous 35.3% of his attempts deemed uncatchable.
The good still far outweighs the bad thanks to his ability to make quick decisions and protect the football. Lawrence has 58 big-time throws (special downfield throws) in his career compared to only 21 turnover-worthy plays. Maybe more impressively, he has taken only 32 sacks on 881 dropbacks over the past two seasons. That's less than half of Burrow's total over that span (72). The 6-foot-6, 220-pound Lawrence is the real deal.
2. Joe Burrow, LSU
Ranking in 2020 class: No. 1
It was a hotly contested debate for the top spot, as Burrow reached a height as a passer we've never seen before at the collegiate level. The age ultimately was the deciding factor -- Lawrence lighting up college football at 19 and 20 years old is different than Burrow doing it at 22 and 23.
The former LSU quarterback is still the best quarterback prospect PFF has seen in the past six drafts, though. His accuracy is on another level from any quarterback we've ever charted.
Of his targets 10-plus yards downfield last season, 61.6% were deemed accurate -- the highest we've ever seen in our six years of grading college players. Baker Mayfield's 55.7% accuracy rate on those same throws was the second best. That means Burrow was nearly six percentage points better than the previous gold standard. The Bengals got a good one.
3. Justin Fields, Ohio State
Ranking in 2021 class: No. 2
Fields' breakout 2019 campaign was reminiscent of Kyler Murray's 2018 with the Sooners -- and Fields was two years younger when he did it. The Georgia transfer lit up the Big Ten with a 92.4 PFF passing grade and 34 big-time throws (second most in FBS) compared to only 11 turnover-worthy plays. If it wasn't with his arm, the 6-foot-3 Fields was beating defenses with his legs, as he racked up 484 rushing yards.
Those are all cherries on top of the real sundae that is Fields' accuracy. Taking away screens and RPOs, and 19.5% of his attempts were deemed to be perfectly placed. Only Burrow, Jake Fromm and Lawrence were better last season. He also had the second-lowest off-target rate on intermediate throws of any quarterback in the country. Fields can beat you any which way you want, and his 2019 was only the first course.
4. Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
Ranking in 2020 class: No. 2
The thing we keep coming back to with Tagovailoa is the same observation that gave Lawrence the nod at the top: He never played bad football. While we never saw him quite reach the pinnacles from a grading perspective that Burrow and Fields have, Tagovailoa earned an 81.4 grade on 87 dropbacks as a true freshman, 90.9 as a sophomore and then 90.3 as a senior. The fact he did it in the SEC is an added bonus.
The injury history has to be taken into account here. And it's concerning that he was getting hurt behind elite Bama offensive lines. He already has had two of his tackles drafted in the first round (Jonah Williams and Jedrick Wills Jr.) and probably will have another in 2021 (Alex Leatherwood). He won't see anything close to that level of protection in the NFL, especially not anytime soon with the state of the Dolphins' offensive line.
5. Trey Lance, North Dakota State
Ranking in 2021 class: No. 3
The 6-foot-3 Lance looked every bit a first-round quarterback prospect as a redshirt freshman in 2019, leading North Dakota State to a 16-0 record and an FCS championship. He's doing it differently than other elite QB prospects, though; he averaged just 18 passing attempts a game (Burrow averaged slightly over 35, for comparison). Lance's biggest red flag at the moment is that we haven't seen him have to win enough games with his arm.
When your red flags aren't directly related to something bad occurring on the field, though, that's a good sign for a prospect. Lance doesn't have any decision-making issues. His 28 touchdown passes and zero interceptions showed off his traits.
Lance has easy arm talent to attack all levels of the defense, and he already has shown he's comfortable throwing on the move. Even by PFF's turnover-worthy plays metric, we charted him with only four. With a big redshirt sophomore campaign, Lance could join Lawrence and Fields as franchise prospects at the top of the 2021 draft.
6. Justin Herbert, Oregon
Ranking in 2020 class: No. 3
Herbert always tantalized yet never quite delivered. The hype on him heading into the 2018 season was well-deserved. He earned a 77.0 passing grade on 292 dropbacks as a true freshman in 2016 before making the leap to dominance as a sophomore in 2017 for the Ducks. He averaged 9.6 yards per attempt, completed 67.5% of his passes and earned a 91.1 passing grade. But he broke his collarbone midway through the season and amassed only 231 dropbacks on the year.
In the two subsequent seasons, Herbert failed to deliver on the buzz surrounding him. All the arm talent in the world never quite translated to big plays on the field. He ranked sixth with 29 big-time throws in 2018 but only 26th with 21 big-time throws last season. That's not the kind of trend you want to see. The talent is obvious, but it will take a different offensive system and coach to get it out of him for the Chargers.
7. Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma
Ranking in 2020 class: No. 4
While many panned Hurts going in the middle of Round 2 as a reach, we saw the same promise as the Eagles. Whether it's with his legs or decision-making, Hurts plays winning football. The biggest selling point is simply how much he improved as a passer over the course of his college career. As a true freshman, he looked more like a running back thrust in at quarterback and earned only a 69.2 passing grade. The next season, that jumped to 79.9 before he was benched in the national title game for Tagovailoa. Finally, in 84 dropbacks filling in for an injured Tagovailoa in 2018 and 425 last season season at Oklahoma, Hurts earned a 92.0 passing grade.
That kind of year-over-year improvement is exactly what you want in a quarterback prospect. We've seen not only his decision-making improve by leaps and bounds but also his accuracy. His adjusted completion percentage on throws 10-plus yards downfield went from 55.3% in 2017 to 63.7% in 2019. Add in his 1,298 rushing yards at 5.6 yards per carry last season, and he's well worth the second-round pick.
8. Jake Fromm, Georgia
Ranking in 2020 class: No. 5
It was a bit surprising that Fromm declared for the draft, as the second half of 2019 was some of the worst football we've seen from him in his career. He's a quarterback who lives with his quick decision-making, ability to manipulate defenses and accuracy at the intermediate level.
It's that last skill, though, that faltered down the stretch. Through the first six weeks of last season, Fromm earned a 92.5 passing grade and missed on only one of his 44 attempts to open receivers. Over the rest of the season, the passing graded dipped to 75.8 and his off-target rate to open receivers jumped from 2.3% to 17.5%. With limited arm strength, Fromm has to thrive off his accuracy and decision-making. Questions about the former are probably why he slid all the way to the fifth round, but Buffalo got a talented passer.
9. Jordan Love, Utah State
Ranking in 2020 class: No. 6
PFF was far lower on Love than where he was ultimately drafted, as the Packers moved up in the first round to grab him at No. 26 overall. The decision-making and accuracy issues were far too risky for us to get on board with early. He had the fourth-most turnover-worthy plays in the country last season and had more in 2019 (27) than Tagovailoa had in his entire college career (24).
The videos of him throwing 75-yard Hail Marys and placing it over linebackers on the move are great. But even though his highlight reel is long, Love's lowlight reel is even longer. Among the 27 quarterbacks with at least 200 throws last season to receivers deemed open, Love's 10.5% uncatchable inaccurate rate ranked 25th (Burrow led the nation at 3.3%, for comparison). That's a scary rate for a top prospect.
10. Brock Purdy, Iowa State
Ranking in 2021 class: No. 4
Where the NFL ultimately falls on Purdy will be curious. He has far from ideal size -- he's listed at 6-foot-1, 210 pounds -- and will only be a true junior in 2021, but there's a reason Iowa State has been a major player in the Big 12 after being a doormat for so long. The Cyclones have finished with a winning record for three consecutive seasons, and the last time they did that was the mid-1970s.
Simply put, quarterbacks aren't supposed to be putting up the numbers he has at Iowa State. Purdy was thrust into a starting role midway through his freshman year and earned an 88.0 passing grade over the final nine games of the season. He couldn't quite replicate that magic last season after losing his top wide receiver in Hakeem Butler and running back David Montgomery, but he put up 3,975 passing yards and an 81.8 passing grade nonetheless.
He has a little Johnny Manziel to his game -- he's a good athlete -- while also making several plays outside the pocket. And unlike many of the others above him on this list, Purdy is doing it without anything in the way of surrounding NFL-talent. Iowa State didn't have anyone drafted in 2020, and the only player who might get a sniff from the league on its offense is tight end Charlie Kolar.