We gathered ESPN's college football writers to break down Mel Kiper's initial 2021 NFL draft rankings.
Who's ranked too high and whose stock will rise by the time the draft rolls around? Which under-the-radar players should you keep an eye on?
And how will the battle between Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields to be the top overall pick play out?
Let's dig in.
Which player not on this list do you think is a surefire first-rounder?
Alex Scarborough: When I close my eyes and picture a Pro Bowl offensive lineman, I see the profile of Tennessee's Trey Smith. Teams are going to need a thorough medical evaluation, given his history of blood clots, but I'm confident that someone will take a chance on him in the first round. At 6-foot-6, 325 pounds, he's exactly what you're looking for at the position. With his size and athleticism, I would have been surprised if he hadn't been a first-round pick in last month's draft.
David Hale: Chris Rumph II wasn't even Duke's starting defensive end last season, but he finished second in the country in pressure rate (22.1%, ahead of Chase Young), racked up 6.5 sacks and 13.5 tackles for loss, and earned Pro Football Focus' second-best grade for an edge defender. He's also the son of a coach and is working under a terrific position coach, Ben Albert. Rumph needs to add a little bulk (6-3, 225, according to Duke) but the skill set is there to become a star in 2020.
Chris Low: A lot of us forgot about Clemson defensive end Xavier Thomas last season because he didn't have a great year and admittedly got a little bit of the big head as a sophomore. He won't be easy to forget this coming season, because Thomas is about to blow up into the difference-maker everybody thought he would be when he signed with the Tigers. He shed some weight in the spring and said he was too heavy last season. Clemson has had its share of disruptive defensive linemen selected in the first round of the NFL draft, and Thomas is poised to be next.
Sam Khan Jr.: If he bounces back smoothly from knee surgery, Tylan Wallace should be in for a huge senior season and, subsequently, a quick rise up NFL draft boards. The Oklahoma State wide receiver has been one of the nation's best for the past two years (he was a Biletnikoff Award finalist in 2018), but an ACL tear cut his 2019 season short. When healthy, he's an explosive downfield threat who has a knack for having big-time performances in big games. The 2021 draft boasts another deep receiver class, but Wallace is as good as any of his contemporaries.
Adam Rittenberg: Maybe the comparison is unfair or too easy, but when I see what Pitt defensive tackle Jaylen Twyman accomplished last season -- 10.5 sacks, 12 tackles for loss, two passes deflected -- it's hard not to think about Aaron Donald. Twyman was the first defensive tackle since Donald in 2013 to lead Pitt in sacks. The Panthers' defense projects very well in 2020, so if Twyman has a strong encore, wins All-America honors again and challenges for national honors, he should get first-round consideration.
Ryan McGee: Kellen Mond needs to discover some consistency. But if the quarterback has half the season he seems to believe Texas A&M is capable of (see: recent comments comparing the Aggies to LSU), then his frame (6-3, 217) and his skills in the interview room feel like they could boost him into the spotlight with NFL evaluators.
Tom VanHaaren: We saw the New Orleans Saints put value on a center in this year's draft, taking Michigan offensive lineman Cesar Ruiz in the first round. I think we could see another team do the same in the next draft with Oklahoma center Creed Humphrey. He and Ruiz were probably the two best centers in college football last season; had Humphrey declared for the NFL, he would have had a chance to go in the first round. If he continues on the trajectory he's on, I don't know how a team could pass up someone who could anchor your offensive line for the foreseeable future.
Heather Dinich: At 6-7, 320 pounds, Stanford offensive tackle Walker Little has the potential to shoot up draft charts if he can stay healthy. He started as a true freshman in 2017, when he was named to ESPN's freshman All-America team, and he started every game at left tackle in 2018 before being named to the Pac-12 all-conference team. His 2019 was cut short with an apparent knee injury in the season opener against Northwestern. Little can continue a family tradition at the next level: His grandfather Gene Little played for the New York Giants, and his uncle Jack Little played for the Baltimore Colts.
Dave Wilson: In 2018, Purdue's Rondale Moore caught 114 passes, averaged 10.1 yards per carry, returned punts and kicks, won the Paul Hornung Award as the nation's most versatile player and became the first freshman to be named a consensus All-American in Big Ten history. Last year, he was limited to four starts with a hamstring injury. He's healthy now and could be a Heisman Trophy candidate this season. At 5-9, he's not a big target. But there are a lot of tiny guys running around in the NFL now. He'll put on a show at the combine (he was clocked at a 4.33 in recruiting camps with a 42-inch vertical) and will be too dazzling to resist.
Which player on the list will rise significantly come draft time?
Hale: It's noteworthy that there are no true pass-rushers until you get to No. 24. If Miami's Gregory Rousseau is still the cream of the crop among the edge rushers by draft day, I'd be surprised if he's not a top-10 pick. There's just too much value on getting to the QB in what is shaping up as an awfully thin class.
Rittenberg: Rousseau already showed he can be an elite pass-rusher, emerging from a redshirt season to record 15.5 sacks, tied for second most in team history, as well as 19.5 tackles for loss and seven quarterback hurries. Opponents will target him more, but Miami's addition of Temple transfer Quincy Roche, the American Athletic Conference defensive player of the year, provides some protection. If Rousseau replicates his 2019 production, he should rise into the top 15, at least.
Low: USC's Jay Tufele is a big interior defensive lineman who improved as a pass-rusher last season and should improve even more in 2020. Those guys are usually long gone by the time teams get around to picking in the latter part of the first round. The 6-3, 310-pound Tufele made a wise decision to stay in school for another season, and it could propel him into the top half of the first round.
Dinich: I agree with Hale and Ritt about Rousseau, but also expect Alabama's Alex Leatherwood to finish higher. The decision to return for his senior season should help boost his stock, as he's versatile, having played both left tackle and right guard. He started all 13 games last season and graded out at almost 89%.
Andrea Adelson: Watch out for Florida tight end Kyle Pitts. Last season, on a team loaded with talent at wide receiver, Pitts emerged as a favorite target for Kyle Trask. The 6-6, 239 pound Pitts led the team with 54 receptions and finished second with 649 yards (while adding five touchdowns). Now, with Trask entrenched as the starter and the Gators losing four of their veteran receivers, Pitts is poised to have an even bigger year. While it is true that trends do not necessarily favor tight ends getting selected high in the NFL draft, Pitts certainly has the potential.
Khan: Leatherwood could have been a first-rounder in this year's draft; an additional year of work and improvement should be enough to send him into the upper half of the first round. The 6-6, 310-pounder was impressive in 2019, and he has started at both guard and tackle during his Alabama career. His measurables, versatility, production and potential all make him an appealing prospect.
McGee: Dylan Moses falling all the way to 19th? No way. The linebacker did the right thing returning to Bama after missing 2019 with a knee injury, and that knee is the only reason he isn't projected higher than he is. He'll fix that quickly.
Who are you surprised to see ranked so highly?
Scarborough: I'm surprised, albeit pleasantly so, to see Alabama wide receiver DeVonta Smith in the top 20. Because he's not a burner and because he doesn't jump out of the gym, he didn't feel like an obvious pick, which I think will eventually hurt him when he's stacked up against the likes of Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle and Justyn Ross at the NFL scouting combine. What he has are some of the strongest hands I've ever seen and an uncanny ability to win 50-50 balls, but I question whether that will be enough to keep him from slipping into the second round.
Hale: After a breakout playoff to cap his freshman season, Clemson's Justyn Ross regressed across the board in 2019, with more drops, fewer yards, fewer touchdowns and just one 100-yard game. Yes, his role changed a bit, and yes, he was dinged up throughout the season, but none of that quite explains how a receiver with his talent on an offense that good was so inconsistent. Of course, all this can change if Ross explodes for a huge 2020, but right now, there's as much risk as there is upside.
Ivan Maisel: I want to be careful how I say this, because I don't mean it as a slight toward Ja'Marr Chase. But can we see how he produces without Joe Burrow putting the ball exactly where it needs to be, play after play after play?
McGee: I'm with Ivan. Chase is great. But it is easy to see a scenario where the inability to reproduce last season's historic offensive output hurts his stock, fair or unfair.
Low: Oregon's Jevon Holland is a terrific player and plenty versatile and will be a big part of a Ducks secondary that should be outstanding next season. So this is not a knock on him as a player. It's just that teams tend to wait a bit longer in the draft to get a safety.
Rittenberg: Offensive tackle is a priority position for the draft, and Michigan's Jalen Mayfield has a chance to make a big jump as a third-year player. But I am a bit surprised to see him pegged in the top 15, ahead of more established pocket protectors such as Alabama's Leatherwood (No. 25) and Stanford's Little (not ranked). The 6-5, 319-pound Mayfield clearly has a high ceiling, and will be coached well by Ed Warinner. But after earning just honorable mention All-Big Ten honors in 2019, he needs a huge season to justify this projection.
Bill Connelly: I agree on both Holland and Mayfield. As the nickel corner position becomes more important, teams could find that Holland is perfect for that role, so I'll focus more on Mayfield. In a field full of former star recruits who have also proved themselves in college, it's quite a projection to put him higher than Leatherwood and others, especially when Mayfield did suffer a lot of glitches last season. In my experience, the best blockers in college football tend to be below 1% in blown run-block rate and below 2% in blown pass-block rate -- Mayfield was at 2.3% and 3.5%, respectively. The potential is obvious, but this projection's a bit aggressive.
How do you see the Trevor vs. Justin battle playing out?
Hale: Trevor Lawrence is the most can't-miss quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, and while Justin Fields is an exceptional talent in his own right, I'd be a little surprised if he jumped the Clemson signal-caller to be the first pick on draft day. Lawrence has it all: arm strength, size, touch, athleticism. He has some nice intangibles working for him, too. He has handled an incredibly bright spotlight, and he's coming from a program that just produced an NFL star quarterback, Deshaun Watson. It's certainly not Fields' fault, but NFL execs will nitpick his time at Georgia and take note of the fact that Ohio State quarterbacks have a spotty track record at the next level. Still, it has all the makings of one of the great QB draft battles, and given that the two guys grew up just an hour apart, came in as the top two recruits and have already faced off in a playoff game, next year's draft is just the obvious extension of a rivalry I'd expect to last for years to come.
VanHaaren: I agree with what David said, but NFL teams, their scouts and general managers are sometimes enamored by the flashy and new. Fields burst onto the scene for Ohio State last season, was third in touchdown passes, tied for third-fewest interceptions thrown and was second in touchdowns per attempt, behind Tua Tagovailoa. He was in his first season with Ryan Day at Ohio State, and while he had a ton of talent around him, Fields showed his ability to adapt to a new system, new coaches and a new environment. If he has another season like he did in 2019, or if he can improve on his stats, I could see NFL teams putting Fields slightly ahead of Lawrence. This debate has gone back to high school when the two were Nos. 1 and 2 in the rankings. Fields has the size, athleticism and talent, and while I think Lawrence is drafted ahead of him, I could see an excellent season propelling Fields to the top or at least narrowing the margin.
Adelson: Only one of these quarterbacks was the subject of a breathless, months-long debate about whether college players should be allowed the freedom to leave school after their freshman season, just like their basketball counterparts. That would be Lawrence, who checks off every box that NFL scouts consider at draft time. Size? Check. Arm strength? Check. Accuracy? Check. Leadership? Check. Winner? Check. Mobility? Check. There are already convenient hashtags like #TankforTrevor and #LoseforLawrence that speak to the expectation he will go No. 1. After the worst performance of his college career in a loss to LSU in the national championship game, expect an even better and more highly motivated Lawrence in 2020. I still expect him to be the No. 1 quarterback drafted.
Low: After the way Lawrence carved up Alabama two years ago as a freshman in the national championship game, too much was expected of him to begin his sophomore season. We were all looking for his supposed flaws and not all of the things he does to elevate a team. Lawrence was not at his best last season in the national championship loss to LSU. Of course, we tend to forget that two weeks earlier, he led the Tigers on a game-winning, 94-yard scoring drive to beat Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl and was the essence of poise in doing so. Lawrence has thrived on big stages, and that's not going to change. And let's be honest, who wouldn't want to have the choice between elite quarterbacks the caliber of Lawrence and Fields? You can't go wrong, but no way I'm passing on Lawrence.
Maisel: Lawrence starts the season with a lead. He has won a national championship. He has led his team to two national championship games. Fields is a remarkable talent. He gambled on himself by moving to Ohio State, and both he and the Buckeyes won. I don't think he should be penalized for not dislodging Jake Fromm from the starting job at Georgia. That's asking a lot of any freshman. But that buttresses the argument for Lawrence, who won a job (and a ring) as a freshman.
Connelly: There's no question that Lawrence leads the race, but a year ago, we were talking about #TankForTua, not Burrow. Things can change, and Fields' combination of nearly mistake-free passing (three interceptions in 354 passes) and his physical run presence (he rushed about two times more per game than Lawrence -- not a lot, but noteworthy) might be particularly appealing to whichever team ends up at No. 1. That said, he has ground to make up in terms of processing speed. His sack rate was about twice as high as Lawrence's, and with the heavier load in the run game, that meant Fields got hit a lot more. Considering his receiving corps isn't nearly as experienced as Lawrence's, it might be hard to catch up in that regard.
McGee: There's no loser here. Whatever two NFL teams land these two dudes will have a super-smart, talented and totally poker-faced QB on their rosters. You can pretty much predict where this tale of the tape will go, based on Clemson's and Ohio State's schedules. Fields gets the big showcase early with Oregon, but we'll have to wait patiently until mid-October before we can really start the debate of who's better.
Other than a QB or Penei Sewell, which player would you want to build a team around?
Scarborough: The one hang-up is his long-term health after he missed all of last season with a knee injury, but give me Alabama middle linebacker Moses and let him lead a defense for the next decade. When he's 100%, he's the full package, with strength, good instincts and intelligence to spare. His speed, sideline to sideline, is reminiscent of former LSU Tiger Devin White.
VanHaaren: If I can't take Sewell and I can't take a quarterback, I'm going to go with Penn State linebacker Micah Parsons. I've seen him succeed in high school and now live up to the hype in college, and I could see him leading a defense in the NFL. He's a former wrestler who could've played running back, linebacker or defensive end in college and has nearly every attribute you'd want in a defensive player. I know the NFL is an offensive league, but I would want to try to stop some of those offenses -- and I think Parsons could provide the versatility to be a guy who could help in the run or pass game and in multiple facets.
Low: Nobody changes the game the way an elite quarterback does, but if we're barred from taking a quarterback, then you take the guy who can make a quarterback's life miserable and help you win the line of scrimmage. Dominant interior defensive linemen are always going to be a commodity, and Florida State's Marvin Wilson has that makeup. Had he not broken his hand a year ago, he was on track for a huge season and could have been a first-round pick in this year's draft. He's an absolute force with the way he pushes the pocket and is going to be a fixture in the middle of an NFL defensive line for a long time.
Dinich: Totally going with TVH on this one. I think my jaw literally dropped when watching Parsons in the Cotton Bowl last season. I remember thinking, "Every college football fan is going to know his name next year." ICYMI: Against Memphis, Parsons had a game-high 14 tackles, two sacks, three tackles for loss, two forced fumbles, two pass breakups and a quarterback hurry that led to a Penn State interception return for a touchdown. He was a sophomore. It's not just how well he plays, though: He has that moxie you want when you're building a team around somebody. He said he was going to win the defensive MVP award in that bowl game, and he did. Should be the first of many awards for him.
Khan: Make room for me on the Parsons bandwagon. I was at the Cotton Bowl that Heather mentioned, and man, that is one of the best displays I've seen by a linebacker. Parsons' closing speed is incredible, and he hits like a Mack truck. He has the instincts, physical traits, nose for the ball and swagger you want in a big-time defensive player.
Connelly: My reflex answer was Parsons, but since analytics are suggesting that pass coverage might be more important and sustainable than pass rushing or run defense, let me make the case for Ohio State cornerback Shaun Wade: He has good size (6-1, 195) and can play well near the line of scrimmage (four tackles for loss, four run stuffs). Although Alabama's Patrick Surtain II and others are awfully close, Wade might have the best pure cover skills as well. He can even rush the passer! The Buckeyes sent him on 13 pass rushes last season, and he got to the QB twice. (That, uh, doesn't include his most famous sack, the one that got him ejected for targeting in the Fiesta Bowl.) He's dynamite and could quickly become one of the league's better corners.
McGee: Samuel Cosmi isn't Penei, but he's close. Dude is 6-7, 310, has switched from right tackle to left, and let's not forget him looking like Tony Gonzalez on that screen pass he ran in from the 20 against West Virginia last season. He's coming back for a fourth season at Texas. He's only going to get better.