Now that we finally know which underclassmen are entering the 2020 NFL draft, I feel comfortable wading into the mock draft waters with my first Round 1 projection of April's class. You shouldn't be shocked about pick No. 1, but there will be a few surprises along the way.
It's worth noting that NFL teams are still in the early stages of their evaluations on this class, and what happens at the Senior Bowl this week, at the combine in a few weeks and at pro days in March really matters. Their draft boards won't be set until right before the prospects start making their way to Las Vegas, and that's not even mentioning free agency, where needs will change. So I'm making these 1-32 predictions based on a combination of my Big Board rankings, each team's needs right now and how I see positions that could be upgraded.
The draft order for picks 1-30 is set, but we're using ESPN's Football Power Index to project pick Nos. 31 and 32. Let's get into it, starting with the Bengals, who should run to the podium on April 23:
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1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU
Did you expect anything else here? The Bengals need a quarterback, and the Heisman Trophy-winning Burrow, coming off one of the greatest seasons in college football history, is the clear No. 1 quarterback in this class. Remember that the 2-14 Bengals can release former starter Andy Dalton with no dead-cap charge, so this can be a clean slate with Burrow -- who went to high school in Athens, Ohio -- taking over (and 2019 fourth-round pick Ryan Finley serving as backup). One more thing to remember: Cincinnati got zero snaps from last year's first-round pick Jonah Williams, so he'll help Burrow immediately. Now the Bengals have to get Burrow some weapons, starting with keeping free-agent receiver A.J. Green.
2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State
If you scanned Washington's depth chart, you probably wouldn't pick out an edge rusher as its top need. It might not even be in the top three. And yet, the Redskins absolutely can't pass on Young -- unless they get bowled over with an offer from a team trading up. With 16.5 sacks in 2019, Young was truly dominant, and he'll make an instant impact at the next level. Yes, Washington has veteran Ryan Kerrigan, who has one year left on his contract, and just took Montez Sweat (seven sacks as a rookie) in the first round, but Young has All-Pro talent and is my top-ranked prospect overall. New coach Ron Rivera will love him.
3. Detroit Lions
Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State
This pick has to be on defense, right? After the Lions spent a boatload of money in free agency last year on pass-rusher Trey Flowers and corner Justin Coleman, I thought they might take a step up. That didn't happen in a disappointing season, as Matt Patricia's defense gave up the NFL's most passing yards per game (284.4) and had the second-fewest sacks (28). Combine that with a half-season from Matthew Stafford and you get 3-12-1, and now Patricia is facing a make-or-break Year 3 in Detroit. Okudah, the top corner in this class, reminds me a little bit of Stephon Gilmore, whom Patricia coached for a season in New England. The Buckeye is also a stellar tackler off the edge. With Young off the board, Okudah is the top defender available.
4. New York Giants
Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson
An off-ball linebacker in the top five? Believe it -- Simmons is that good. He is the perfect run-and-cover linebacker for today's NFL, and he can do anything and play every down. Just look at his incredible stat line from 2019: 104 tackles, eight sacks, three interceptions and 16 total tackles for loss. The Giants have many needs, but Simmons is the type of defender who makes everyone around him better. This is another spot to watch for a rising pass-rusher, but I don't have another one graded this high. I also thought about offensive line; New York could upgrade at both tackle spots. By the way: The last time the Giants picked No. 4 overall, they ended up with a pretty good player (good luck in retirement, Eli).
5. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama
Let's rewind: Back in 2006, the Nick Saban-coached Dolphins passed on signing a quarterback coming off a serious injury and instead traded draft picks to acquire Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington. Things didn't work out, and Saban moved on to Alabama the next year. The quarterback Saban and Miami could have had? Drew Brees. Now, Saban has a talented quarterback with injury questions, and things have come full circle. The Dolphins shouldn't pass on this one. Tagovailoa, who still needs to pass medical checks on his injured hip, is a super-talented passer with elite accuracy. With three first-round picks and two second-rounders, Miami has to build its talent base, and it can start with a franchise quarterback.
6. Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon
The Chargers have some big decisions to make over the next few months. Will they bring back free-agent quarterback Philip Rivers? Will they pay up to keep tight end Hunter Henry and running back Melvin Gordon? Rivers showed some decline in 2019, throwing 20 interceptions. It could be time to start fresh with the 6-foot-6 Herbert, who has the highest ceiling of any of the quarterbacks in this class. His inconsistency can be maddening and his decision-making must improve, but you can't doubt his talent, and a team in the top 10 could fall in love. L.A. has some issues; its defense produced just 30 sacks (despite Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III combining for 18.5), and quarterbacks completed 70.7% of passes against it, highest in the league. The Chargers also got almost nothing from top 2019 picks Jerry Tillery and Nasir Adderley. This also could be a spot to watch for defense.
7. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn
I see this pick going toward the trenches, either on defense or offense. Carolina ranked second in the NFL with 53 sacks this season, but 29 of those came from pending free agents in Gerald McCoy (five), Mario Addison (9.5), Bruce Irvin (8.5) and Vernon Butler (six). New coach Matt Rhule needs to find replacements -- not all of them will be back. Worse news for the Panthers? The offensive line allowed 58 sacks, tied for most in the league. They can upgrade across the board there. I'll go with Brown, who has explosive athleticism in a massive 6-foot-5 frame. He improved as a pass-rusher this season, even if he didn't stuff the stat sheet (four sacks). He can be the Panthers' defensive anchor and make the linebackers and secondary behind him better, just by eating up blockers and chasing down quarterbacks.
8. Arizona Cardinals
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia
This is about the range in which we could see a run on offensive tackles, and Thomas, who has played on both the left and right, is No. 1 on my board. I debated going with a receiver here; wouldn't Kyler Murray's former teammate CeeDee Lamb enjoy catching a few more long touchdown passes from his friend? But this comes down to protecting the franchise quarterback, and Arizona desperately needs help along its line, particularly at left tackle, where starter D.J. Humphries is a free agent. The Cardinals also have some defensive deficiencies, so keep an eye on a defensive back too.
9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina
Kinlaw is just behind Brown in my defensive tackle rankings, and he has had a good week of practice at the Senior Bowl, cementing his status as a top-15 pick. He fills a void in Jacksonville, where former first-round pick Taven Bryan (three sacks in two seasons) hasn't worked out. The Jags hit on edge rusher Josh Allen (10.5 sacks) in last year's draft, going with the best player available in the top 10, but they'll have to pay up to keep Yannick Ngakoue from hitting the free-agent market. This defense has to get an injection of youth, and the Jaguars have two first-round picks to do it.
10. Cleveland Browns
Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville
This is a tough pick to project because the Browns don't even have a general manager yet, but Cleveland's clear weakness in 2019 was at left tackle. Greg Robinson was in and out of the starting lineup there and is now a free agent; he's not the long-term answer. If the Browns can't upgrade there in free agency, they should look to the draft. Becton, a 6-foot-7, 370-pound mountain of a man, is rising since he declared for the draft and scouts got a look at his 2019 film. He has great feet for his size and can plow through defenders in the running game. The last offensive tackle the Browns took in the first round? Joe Thomas at No. 3 overall in 2007. If Becton can come close to Thomas' ceiling, new coach Kevin Stefanski could stick around a long time.
11. New York Jets
Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama
This will be general manager Joe Douglas' first draft in charge of the Jets' front office, and this team has several needs it could look to fill with this pick. Wide receiver should be an option, and the Jets could have their pick of the board in this scenario. Edge rusher and cornerback are possibilities. But I keep coming back to the offensive line because of how bad that unit was in 2019. The Jets averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and they allowed 52 sacks, fourth most in the league. A good offensive line opens up so much for Adam Gase's offense, starting with unlocking Le'Veon Bell. Wills, who started at right tackle for the Crimson Tide the past two seasons, could be an immediate starter in New York.
12. Las Vegas Raiders
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma
Finally the first wide receiver comes off the board, and it's to a team that thought it had a No. 1 receiver when it traded for Antonio Brown last March. That didn't happen, of course, and when the Raiders cut Brown before the season, there was a massive hole in Derek Carr's weaponry (even after a breakout season from Darren Waller). Lamb is a big-time playmaker with great hands who will step in, catch a bunch of passes and score touchdowns. This team isn't that far off from contending -- don't forget that it sat at 6-4 before a late-season collapse, and it was only eliminated from the playoffs in Week 17 -- and Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have two first-round picks and three third-rounders with which to work.
13. Indianapolis Colts
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama
The Colts didn't have much injury luck at receiver this season. T.Y Hilton missed six games. Free-agent signing Devin Funchess made it only one game, catching three passes. Second-round pick Parris Campbell caught just 18 passes in seven games. They could use a talent boost here, particularly with Hilton signed for only one more season. My comp for Jeudy for the past few months has been former Colts star Marvin Harrison, based mostly around his route running; Jeudy is already advanced as a route runner and is smooth out of his breaks. He should test well at the combine too. He'd help Jacoby Brissett on Day 1.
14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa
This is another tough team to peg because we don't yet know whether it will bring back quarterback Jameis Winston or breakout pass-rusher Shaquil Barrett, who are both free agents. The Bucs also could lose defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh, Carl Nassib, Jason Pierre-Paul and Beau Allen in free agency. That's a lot of unknowns, and the entire defensive line could be addressed here, really, particularly if Bruce Arians & Co. spot a pass-rusher they like. Because this is my mock draft, though, I see a perfect fit for Wirfs on the right side of the line with Demar Dotson likely leaving in free agency. Wirfs is powerful at the point of attack and tremendous in the running game. And if you're keeping count, that makes four offensive tackles in the first 14 picks here.
15. Denver Broncos
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Does Denver have its quarterback of the future? Second-round pick Drew Lock, who flashed in his late-season cameo, has given Broncos fans hope, and he'll get every opportunity to start all 16 games in 2020. So let's help him out and give him the draft's fastest pass-catcher to pair with Courtland Sutton, who looks like he could be a future superstar. Ruggs took a step forward as a route runner this season, but his game is all about speed -- he can run by any defensive back. I also thought about cornerback here, especially with veteran Chris Harris Jr. hitting free agency. There could also be a hole at safety if the Broncos get priced out of Justin Simmons' looming free-agent payday.
16. Atlanta Falcons
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa
The Falcons ended the season with four straight wins, saving Dan Quinn's job. Quinn, though, is still on the hot seat, and he needs much more out of his defense in 2020. It should get a boost from the return of safety Keanu Neal, who has played in only four games the past two seasons, but it also could use an overhaul along the defensive line. Former first-round edge rushers Vic Beasley Jr. and Takkarist McKinley haven't lived up to their hype, and Atlanta didn't get much out of its defensive tackles. Epenesa, who had 22 sacks over the past two seasons, is versatile enough to kick inside in Quinn's 4-3 defense, and I think he could be a dominant interior presence on passing downs. The Falcons' 28 sacks this season tied for second fewest in the league, and Epenesa would help.
17. Dallas Cowboys
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida
Here's a quick look at the Cowboys' top free agents, which includes some true star power: quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receivers Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb, pass-rushers Michael Bennett and Robert Quinn, and cornerback Byron Jones. Can they keep them all? Dallas likely has budgeted to pay up for Prescott and Cooper (it gave up its 2019 first-rounder for him), but Jones could be the odd man out on a team that is already paying top dollar at several positions. That means the Cowboys will need a cheap option as a replacement corner. With smooth hips and great recovery speed, Henderson is a natural cover corner with a 6-foot-1 frame. Safety is another position to keep an eye on, and Dallas could target Grant Delpit or Xavier McKinney.
18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT)
K'Lavon Chaisson, OLB, LSU
The Dolphins this season had the fewest sacks on defense (23) and also allowed the most sacks on offense (58), so they have huge holes on both sides of the trenches. And while they would probably love to grab an offensive tackle with their second first-rounder, my top four are all off the board here. The ascending Chaisson makes a ton of sense with this pick, as Miami can bet on the upside of a twitchy pass-rusher with elite quickness who ended his college career with just 9.5 sacks. Now, that includes a season lost to injury, but there is still some risk here. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Chaisson has room to grow on his frame.
19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)
Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma
Yes, this means two Sooners to Vegas in this projection, this time with my top-ranked inside linebacker taking over in the middle of the Raiders' defense. Murray is a chiseled, gifted talent with great athleticism for his size (6-foot-2, 240). He needs to improve in coverage, but he has the speed to match tight ends in space and is so fun to watch on tape as a tackler and penetrator. I also thought about a corner here -- the Raiders allowed quarterbacks to throw for 8.3 yards per attempt, tied for highest in the league -- but I like the fit with Murray in Paul Guenther's defense.
20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame
When it was reported in November that Kmet said he planned to return for his senior season at Notre Dame in 2020, I took him out of my rankings for this class. Now? He has entered the draft, and he's my new No. 1 tight end. The 6-foot-5 Kmet doesn't have a ton of experience and only caught 60 passes over three seasons, but he flashes an all-around game that is too good to ignore. Before last year's draft, I projected the Jaguars to take T.J. Hockenson because their need at tight end was so clear, and that hasn't changed a year later. By the way, keep an eye on New England as a potential landing spot for Kmet; there was a Gronk-sized hole in the Pats' offense this season, and Kmet could fill some of it.
21. Philadelphia Eagles
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Philadelphia has to upgrade at wide receiver -- its two top pass-catchers in 2019 were tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert -- and the depth and talent in this class could set up perfectly for the Eagles to have several options here. At 6-foot-4, Higgins is the biggest wideout of the first-round talents, a jump-ball specialist and touchdown machine (25 the past two seasons). He's not super explosive like Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs, but he'll box out cornerbacks in the red zone and pick up first downs, not unlike Alshon Jeffery, who struggled to stay on the field this season. The Eagles would have liked more from second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in Year 1, and I still like his upside, but Higgins has No. 1 receiver talent. As is always the case for Philadelphia, this is another spot to watch for an edge rusher.
22. Buffalo Bills
Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado
General manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott used the 2019 offseason to build a competent offense around quarterback Josh Allen, and it worked -- the Bills went 10-6 and made the playoffs, with some help from a great defense. Now, though, they have to figure out how to get over the Patriots hump and take the next step. One way is to keep giving Allen targets who can get open, and that's Shenault, a Swiss Army knife who plays receiver like a running back. He's great after the catch and versatile enough to play inside or out. Shenault could nicely complement John Brown and Cole Beasley.
23. New England Patriots
Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama
At this time last year, I slotted in Daniel Jones as my projection to the Patriots in Round 1. And while I'm not ready to go quarterback here, the Patriots do have an offseason of uncertainty with Tom Brady not under contract, which means they could take a close look at these signal-callers through April (though I do like fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham). They have a few other important free agents, though, including safety Devin McCourty and linebacker Jamie Collins, who had a resurgent season. That's why I like the fit of McKinney, my top-ranked safety after I took a closer look at his 2019 tape. He's a complete player and is versatile, which is a trait Bill Belichick values. McKinney also has another thing Belichick likes: He played for Belichick's buddy Nick Saban.
24. New Orleans Saints
Jordan Love, QB, Utah State
So you probably see Love's stat line -- 20 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions -- and think this pick doesn't make sense, but you need to know the context around this Utah State team. Love lost his top five pass-catchers from his breakout 2018 (32 TDs, six INTs), along with a few starters along the offensive line. The Aggies just didn't have the offensive talent around him to compete. At 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Love can make every throw, and NFL teams are high on his talent. He could be a first-round pick with a strong pre-draft process, which started at the Senior Bowl. As for the Saints, this pick is all about projection. There's no guarantee that 41-year-old Drew Brees will return in 2020, and Teddy Bridgewater is also a free agent. Love could develop for a year or two behind a bridge quarterback. New Orleans, by the way, doesn't have a second-round pick, so it needs to hit here.
Mike Tannenbaum and Louis Riddick evaluate the draft stock and pro potential of Utah State QB Jordan Love.
25. Minnesota Vikings
Josh Jones, OT, Houston
A four-year starter for the Cougars, Jones has had a great week at the Senior Bowl, and I feel good about making him the fifth offensive tackle of this first round. Minnesota got a solid season out of Brian O'Neill at right tackle, but left tackle Riley Reiff isn't the long-term answer. The 6-foot-6, 310-pound Jones could be. You also could keep an eye on a cornerback here, as there could be some upheaval with Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander hitting free agency and Xavier Rhodes, who struggled in 2019, a possible cap casualty. And we already know Mike Zimmer loves coaching up talented cornerbacks.
26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia
I mentioned the Dolphins' need at offensive line earlier, and this is certainly a spot to watch for linemen who rise at the combine, but I just don't have one graded this highly at this point. So I'm going to follow my board and go with the No. 1 running back in Swift, who would be a good value pick for a team that really doesn't have a clear running back starter. Swift is a big-play threat and all-around back who will contribute in the passing game, and he'd make life easier on Tagovailoa (or whoever starts under center in 2020). I actually have a higher grade on Swift than Josh Jacobs, who went No. 24 a year ago. Again, though, this team has several positions it could target, so this is fluid.
27. Seattle Seahawks
Zack Baun, OLB, Wisconsin
It's fair to say the early returns on 2019 first-round pick L.J. Collier, whom I ranked outside my top 50, were disappointing; he played just 142 defensive snaps and didn't have a sack. Put that next to an injury-plagued season from Ezekiel Ansah and an inconsistent year from Jadeveon Clowney, and the Seahawks produced a very un-Pete-Carroll-like 28 total sacks, tied for second fewest in the league. This front seven could be depleted in free agency -- Jarran Reed is another who could leave -- which means Baun, whom I really wanted to find a way to sneak into the first round here, makes a lot of sense. He's not going to be a traditional hulking 4-3 defensive end, but he gets after quarterbacks in different ways. His 2019 breakout season (12.5 sacks) included a few "wow" moments from his relentlessness, and he's going to get some comps to former Badger T.J. Watt. If he lands in Seattle, he'd play outside linebacker, but he'd get plenty of opportunities to get after quarterbacks. I thought about Oklahoma defensive tackle Neville Gallimore, who has had a good week at the Senior Bowl as a Reed replacement, but I'll stick with Baun.
28. Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU
Did the Ravens ever really replace C.J. Mosley? Not really, though that defense didn't have many weaknesses for the last few months of the season. Journeyman Josh Bynes took the reins, but he's a free agent, and general manager Eric DeCosta could upgrade with Queen, a fast, athletic, run-and-hit middle linebacker who is rising up boards because of his play down the stretch of LSU's title run. He was tremendous in the two College Football Playoff games, picking up four tackles for loss and 16 total tackles. This is a great fit. Baltimore also could address another spot in the front seven.
29. Tennessee Titans
Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State
The Titans are another team with a few big pending free agents, and their list includes quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Marcus Mariota, running back Derrick Henry, cornerback Logan Ryan and offensive tackle Jack Conklin. But they also have some uncertainty at edge rusher, with Kamalei Correa, who had five sacks, a free agent, and soon-to-be 38-year-old Cameron Wake coming back from a serious injury. Gross-Matos is a pick to help the competition on the other side of Harold Landry, who came into his own this season. Gross-Matos has long arms on his 6-foot-5 frame, and he is stellar against the run. He's not a quick-twitch pass-rusher like Young or Chaisson, but he's a solid player and hard worker. General manager Jon Robinson has an eye for talent, and it's a huge offseason for Tennessee.
30. Green Bay Packers
KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State
When Green Bay had two first-round picks a year ago, I thought surely it would use one on a receiver to help out Aaron Rodgers, who has had Davante Adams and a bunch of late-round picks for the past few seasons. But no, the Packers went defense on Day 1. And while their defense was improved, the dearth of talent behind Adams reared its head again, as the No. 2 non-running back pass-catcher was former undrafted wideout Allen Lazard. What does Rodgers have to do to get some help? Hamler, who at 5-foot-9 reminds me a little bit of Marquise Brown, is electric with the ball in his hands. He could rise even more after he works out at the combine. Offensive tackle could be another potential target for Green Bay.
31. San Francisco 49ers
Grant Delpit, S, LSU
Can the 49ers hit a home run here like they did with their first two picks (Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel) in 2019? That could be tough, with the Niners not picking again until the fifth round. That makes this pick extremely important -- they have to get a contributor, or trade down to pick up more assets. Delpit was getting top-10 buzz early in the season, but he didn't have a great year, fighting through an ankle injury and missing too many tackles. This feels like a good pairing, with San Francisco potentially losing Jimmie Ward in free agency. Delpit has a ton of talent, but I want to see how he tests at the combine in a few weeks.
32. Kansas City Chiefs
Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn
OK, 49ers fans -- don't be mad at me for putting the Chiefs at No. 32; remember that we're using the projections from the ESPN Football Power Index, which favor Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Igbinoghene, a former wide receiver and track star at Auburn whose parents were both Olympic athletes, is another late-season riser, and he could light up the combine. He's still raw, but he has big-time upside, and I was really impressed by his improvement this season. The Chiefs have to get some more competition at cornerback. I debated Igbinoghene or LSU's Kristian Fulton here, but I'll give the edge for now to Igbinoghene. I also thought about J.K. Dobbins, my No. 2-ranked running back, adding to Andy Reid's toys around Patrick Mahomes.