The NFL has become more and more pass heavy in recent years. Although this obviously increases the value of elite quarterbacks, it has also increased the importance of the players who try to harass them. Although the 2017 NFL draft appears to be an unusually strong draft as a whole, it lacks an elite prospect at the quarterback position. Accordingly, all eyes have turned to Myles Garrett, the 2017 NFL draft's top edge rusher prospect, who many believe will be the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. The question is: Will he measure up?
One way to answer that question is Football Outsiders' model for projecting edge rushers: SackSEER.
SackSEER projections are based on a statistical analysis of the factors that have historically correlated to success as an NFL edge rusher. SackSEER has predicted success for many current stars, such as Von Miller, Khalil Mack and Justin Houston, while also identifying several high-profile busts at the edge rusher position, including Dion Jordan, Marcus Smith and Jarvis Jones. SackSEER had its fair share of misses as well, but it nevertheless provides a good starting point for discussing the likelihood that a pass-rushing prospect will collect high sack numbers at the NFL level.
For more detail on how SackSEER works, check out the full detail at the bottom of the article.
What follows is a ranking of the top edge rusher prospects for 2017 according to our model, as well as one fairly highly regarded prospect the model thinks is likely to be a bust:
1. Myles Garrett, Texas A&M
SackSEER projection: 31.9 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Julius Peppers, Jadeveon Clowney, Chris Long
Myles Garrett is easily the best edge rusher in this class. He was extremely productive, recording 31.5 sacks in 34 games. Garrett paired that production with an unusually strong workout. He ran the 40-yard dash in 4.64 seconds, recorded a 41-inch vertical leap, and had a 10-foot, 8-inch broad jump. Garrett's numbers would be fabulous for a 255-pound outside linebacker prospect, let alone a 270-pound player with ideal defensive end size. Some have questions about Garrett piling up sacks against lesser opponents, as 4.5 of his 8.5 sacks in 2016 came in one game against Texas-San Antonio. But it's not as though Garrett is the first pass-rushing prospect to excel against poor competition. Khalil Mack, of course, got nearly all of his sacks against MAC competition, with three of his senior-year sacks coming against an 0-12 Miami (Ohio) team. Jared Allen, one of the most successful "sleeper" projections in SackSEER history, played most of his games in the Big Sky Conference.
Although Garrett ends up with one of the top-10 projections of the past 20 years, he falls a bit shy of those in the Von Miller class -- players who were outstanding on each and every one of SackSEER's metrics. Garrett's passes defensed numbers are good, but not great. Garrett also declined to run the three-cone drill at the combine or at his pro day, which raises questions regarding his agility. Nonetheless, Garrett is certainly worthy of the No. 1 overall pick in the draft. SackSEER rates Garrett higher than Jadeveon Clowney, the most recent edge rusher who went No. 1 overall.
2. Solomon Thomas, Stanford
SackSEER projection: 24.2 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Justin Smith, Cameron Jordan
By contrast to Garrett, Thomas is thoroughly average for a first-round prospect, primarily due to mediocre college production. His best season was his junior year, in which he recorded 8.5 sacks in 13 games. By contrast, Garrett's worst year had 8.5 sacks in 10 games. Moreover, although Thomas' college career was short, he failed to record even a single pass defensed, which is a major red flag. But Thomas made up significant ground at the NFL combine, where he tested above average in every drill that SackSEER measures despite his bigger-than-average size (273 pounds). He had a particularly impressive 6.95-second time in the three-cone. Thomas is a decent prospect and a good fit for a team willing to gamble a little bit on athleticism and upside over college production.
3. T.J. Watt, Wisconsin
SackSEER projection: 24.1 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Aaron Schobel, LaMarr Woodley
If it ignored projected draft position, SackSEER would be more bullish on Watt than Solomon Thomas. Scouts Inc. projects Thomas to be drafted nearly a full round ahead of Watt, which gives Thomas a huge boost to his projection. However, despite this boost, SackSEER gives Thomas only a measly 0.1 sack advantage.
Thomas and Watt are similar prospects in a lot of ways. Neither saw game action as freshmen, they both had relatively pedestrian sophomore campaigns, and they both broke out as juniors, each recording exactly 12 career sacks apiece. Thomas has several pounds on Watt, but Watt makes up for it with slightly better combine numbers. Watt bested Thomas by two inches in both the vertical and broad jumps and had an even faster three-cone (6.79 seconds) than Thomas. However, what sets Watt apart from Thomas is his strong passes defensed rate, giving Watt at least one trait similar to his more famous older brother. Watt intercepted one pass and batted away six others during his short career, resulting in an average of nearly one pass defensed every three games.
4. Jordan Willis, Kansas State
SackSEER projection: 23.6 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Kyle Vanden Bosch, Cliff Avril
Willis posted Myles Garrett-like numbers at the combine, running the 40-yard dash in a blistering 4.53 seconds and recording impressive results in the vertical (39 inches) and broad jump (10 feet, 5 inches). Willis scored a slightly better passes defensed rate than Garrett, but was far from matching his sack production. Willis had a single sack as a freshman, 3.5 as a sophomore, 8.5 as a junior and 12 as a senior. Although it is certainly nice to see that Willis improved every year, this sack production is fairly typical of a second- to third-round prospect. Overall, SackSEER is optimistic about Willis' prospects, considering he combines fairly average production numbers with great workout results.
5. Takkarist McKinley, UCLA
SackSEER projection: 22.7 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Calvin Pace, Charles Grant
McKinley has the second-highest passes defensed rate in this draft class (10 passes in three seasons, or just more than one pass defensed every three games). Those are excellent numbers that provide a big boost to his projection. On a sacks-per-game basis, McKinley is no Myles Garrett, but he was productive enough that SackSEER gives him a slight edge in that category over Watt, Thomas and Willis. McKinley's projection, however, suffers from his combine performance. His explosion numbers were a bit uneven. He performed well in the 40-yard dash and the broad jump, but was a bit below average in the vertical leap. That alone is not much cause for concern, but he also recorded a poor three-cone time (7.48 seconds). That's doesn't make McKinley a guaranteed bust -- for example, Calvin Pace and Charles Grant had some success as pass-rushers despite even worse three-cone results. But both players were far from Hall of Fame quality, and somewhat highly regarded prospects such as Michael Boireau, Kenechi Udeze and Erasmus James flamed out after posting poor times in the three-cone.
6. Derek Barnett, Tennessee
SackSEER projection: 22.0 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Terrell Suggs, Jarvis Jones
Derek Barnett is a prospect for teams that prefer production over measurables. He was the second-most productive edge rusher in this draft class behind Myles Garrett, recording 32 sacks in just three seasons of college football. Barnett also accomplished this feat in the SEC, so it's not as if he benefited from poor competition. Barnett's passes defensed rate was also solid, if not spectacular.
Barnett's combine performance, however, did not measure up to his on-field success. He ran a 4.88 40, a time that is more closely associated with a run-stuffing defensive lineman than a 259-pound edge player. Barnett's best historical comparable for success is Suggs, who was both more productive than Barnett and even worse in his workouts. A closer comparable, however, might be former Georgia edge rusher Jarvis Jones, who has not been a consistent NFL performer after posting excellent college production and poor workout results. Given the disparity between these comparable prospects, SackSEER is understandably ambivalent about Barnett's prospects for success.
7. Taco Charlton, Michigan
SackSEER projection: 20.8 sacks through Year 5
Similar historical prospects: Michael Haynes, Marcus Smith
Charlton was dominant for the Wolverines in his senior season, but could barely crack the lineup during the first three years of his college career. Scouts are likely intrigued by the prospect of combining Charlton's ideal size (6-foot-6, 273 pounds) with the pass-rushing production he displayed as a senior.
SackSEER is highly skeptical of players who are one-year wonders, especially those who break out during their senior seasons. College football players are more experienced as seniors than at any point in their careers and are often lined up against less experienced sophomores and juniors. This advantage is completely reversed when those senior players are drafted and become NFL rookies. Indeed, history suggests that many of the players who dramatically overperform as seniors may have simply had a lucky season or are naturally inconsistent, neither which bodes well for Charlton's prospects.
Charlton's case is eerily similar to 2003 Bears first-round pick Michael Haynes, who was an even more extreme example of a late bloomer. Haynes had only four sacks as a junior player, but recorded an amazing 15 sacks as a senior. Haynes tipped the scales at 281 pounds, teasing scouts with his potential to combine great pass-rushing with ideal run-stopping size. However, Haynes also fared poorly in pre-draft workouts. Haynes ran the 40-yard dash in 4.87 seconds, recorded a below-average 30.5-inch vertical leap, and broad-jumped only 9 feet, 1 inch. Given Haynes' pedestrian first three seasons, and a combine performance that corroborated the less impressive section of his career, scouts should have realized that Haynes was simply not a first-round talent.
Similarly, Charlton ran the 40-yard dash in 4.92 seconds, even slower than Haynes. Charlton performed better than Haynes on the vertical leap and the broad jump, but he was still below average on both for a drafted edge rusher, let alone a possible first-round pick. To top it off, Charlton recorded only two passes defensed while at Michigan. That's a lot of evidence against Charlton as a prospect.
Other players have certainly overcome these challenges before. Tamba Hali, in particular, had a late breakout season and below-average workout numbers, yet became a star in the NFL. However, for every Hali there are three players like Michael Haynes, making Charlton an extremely risky play in the first round.
How SackSEER works:
SackSEER is based on a statistical analysis of all edge rushers drafted in the years 1998-2015, and measures the following:
The edge rusher's projected draft position. These projections use the rankings from ESPN's Scouts, Inc.;
An "explosion index" that measures the prospect's scores in the 40-yard dash, the vertical leap, and the broad jump in pre-draft workouts;
The prospect's score on the three-cone drill;
A metric called SRAM ("sack rate as modified") which measures the prospect's per-game sack productivity, but with adjustments for factors such as early entry in the NFL draft and position switches during college;
The prospect's college passes defensed divided by college games played;
The number of medical redshirts the player either received or was eligible for.