Jadeveon Clowney would have been the No. 1 pick in the 2013 draft. That's not really a question. And while he's no lock to go No. 1 in the 2014 NFL draft, I wouldn't read too much into the questions of whether he was productive enough this season as the cause.
So what will teams get with Clowney, and where does he fit?
Here are a few things to keep in mind:
• Production and the draft: Dion Jordan had a total of 5.0 sacks in 2012, and went No. 3 in the draft. In fact, Miami traded up to get him and his pass-rushing potential. Ezekiel Ansah had 4.5 sacks in 2012 at BYU, and even as an older player, was drafted No. 5 overall by Detroit. A pick later, the Browns took Barkevious Mingo coming off a 4.5-sack season. It wasn't about stats, it was about traits. If you have the talent to be a great NFL pass-rusher you'll go high regardless of your impact on the box score. The NFL is a developmental league, too, and teams draft for talent first.
• Don't knock the effort: Watching Clowney this season, I never saw a player dogging it, or being too protective of himself, staying away from contact, or anything like that. But could you blame him? He was worth many millions last spring and was essentially forced to return to play for another season. Anybody questioning his competitive integrity should remember he'd still be a first-round pick even if he'd sat out the whole season.
• Sack totals can lie: Anybody who watched South Carolina this year knows how cognizant offenses were of Clowney. He simply changed the way offenses approached the game plan. And while he came into the Capitol One Bowl with just 3.0 sacks, he has piled up 46 tackles for loss and 24 sacks in his career, and he's still going to get better. Sacks are an indicator, but if teams are determined to keep you from sacking the QB, and it happens every week, the numbers are going to be skewed.
The skill set
Clowney is the total package. He'll measure at 6-foot-5 and between 260 and 270 pounds at the NFL combine in February, with a balance of great upper- and lower-body strength. He has unusual quickness and change-of-direction skills for a man of his size, and his quickness and ability to convert speed to power alone can put an offensive tackle in a difficult position.
But he's not just quick. Clowney marries the quick-twitch athleticism to strength, flexibility, good recognition skills and strong hands. He avoids blocks with quickness about as well as any player in recent years, with the one problem being that his speed can get him out of position. However, that speed allows him to pursue the play down the line and all over the field. He's very good versus the run, both in finding the ball and in not giving ground to blockers. He really doesn't need to come off the field.
The fits
While any defense can use a player like this -- Clowney played with his hand on the ground at South Carolina, but could stand up and be a pass-rushing or edge-setting 3-4 OLB -- I think he's best as a 4-3 defensive end. I don't think he'll last outside the top 4-5 picks, even though most of those teams need a quarterback.
Potential fits
Houston: The system Houston ran in 2013 isn't an ideal fit, and the presence of J.J. Watt means they aren't lacking a pass-rusher. But there's also a new coach in town, and if the Texans don't see a QB they feel can be the future of the franchise, they could go instead with Clowney's ceiling.
St. Louis: The system is a fit, and the thought of Clowney on the same field with Robert Quinn is a pretty terrifying one for opposing offenses. But given the presence of Quinn and Chris Long, Clowney doesn't represent a major need for the Rams. Does somebody trade into the spot to get him?
Jacksonville: The Jags could certainly use a pass-rusher. It's been a problem area for the team for years. If they're able to address the QB situation via a trade or free agency, or are content to draft another QB down the board, Clowney is a great fit. I just don't know if the Jags can pass on a QB they really like if one is available.
Cleveland: They took Mingo at No. 6 last year. They could certainly use another pass-rusher, but the system will matter, and we don't know yet what the coaching staff will look like.
Oakland: The Raiders are in desperate need of talent on defense. Clowney certainly represents help.
After that, the next three teams are all fits. Atlanta could certainly use him, as could the Bucs and Vikings. He's not a lock to go at No. 1, but a player with this kind of talent won't have to wait long to hear his name called in May.