I put out my first draft guide in 1979. This year will be No. 35. That first guide was a full six years before the first NFL scouting combine. Back then, there were no online prospect guides, no recruiting rankings to track talent down to the high school level, and the draft looked something like this. For me, evaluating prospects was all about getting as much tape as I could find (there was no ESPN GamePlan) and making hundreds and hundreds of phone calls (no cell phones, either!) to coaches, scouts, front-office folks that would listen and evaluators at every level. You couldn't watch a verified 40-yard time on live TV; instead, you had to triangulate and weed out truth from fiction. It wasn't easy.
Mel Kiper's all-time draft grades
• Top 10 QBs »
• Top 10 RBs »
• Top 10 WR/TEs »
• Top 10 OLs
• Top 10 DE/DTs »
• Top 10 LBs »
• Top 10 S/CBs »
• Top 10 K/Ps »
But throughout all of this time, I've kept the same 10-point grading scale, so even as the athletes changed, we can compare today where players stood among their prospect peers over a generation. So, some parameters for what you see below:
1. The ranking is based on the final draft grade before the draft, and it goes back to 1979, my first draft guide. It's clear to me now I graded a little easier when I was younger. I didn't have the point of reference I do today.
2. The grades do not reflect NFL performance. (You'll see.) I printed these grades and simply went back through every book. I have to live with the busts.
3. There are some ties on grades, so I had to break those ties without a great deal of science. But again, I didn't break ties based on NFL production.
Here are my top 10 all-time running backs based on draft grades.
1. Eric Dickerson, Southern Methodist (No. 2 pick, 1983)
Grade: 9.8
Tall and powerful, Dickerson had an upright running style that made him look like a sprinter at the 60-yard mark -- right up until the split second before contact, when he'd drop his shoulder and use his 220-pound frame to wipe out a linebacker or safety in his path. A superb athlete with great vision, he was a dominant NFL runner until the mileage became too much. Who knows if that 2,105-yard season in 1984 will be challenged again soon.
2. Curt Warner, Penn State (No. 3 pick, 1983)
Grade: 9.8
At a time when the program was on top, Warner led Penn State in rushing three consecutive seasons, and had a great blend of speed, power, short-area burst and vision. He also was really durable, which made it tough to see him tear his ACL in his second NFL season after piling up 1,449 yards as a rookie. But he came back strong and put together three more 1,000-yard seasons. Players didn't recover as well from injuries like that at the time.
3. Ricky Williams, Texas (No. 5 pick, 1999)
Grade: 9.8
The funny thing now is that you hear Williams' NFL career framed as a disappointment. He finished with more than 10,000 yards! But that's just a reminder of what kind of a prospect he was. People also forget about Williams' power. This is a guy who could run a hair more than 4.5 seconds in the 40-yard dash at 240-plus pounds. He had great durability, and showed such a limited downside, which says a lot about how some people view what really was a very good NFL career.
4. Barry Sanders, Oklahoma State (No. 3 pick, 1989)
Grade: 9.8
Over his last five NFL seasons, Sanders played 80 of a possible 80 regular-season games. When he retired at age 30, we all knew he could have continued and simply destroyed the NFL's all-time rushing record. That Sanders retired seemingly 100 percent healthy and still untouchable is in some ways a joy, however, because as a prospect he could never be touched. I don't know if we'll ever see a college season as good as Sanders' 1988 campaign, when he cracked 300 yards rushing four times. As a prospect, the only question was whether he could hold up when defenses were finally able to put consistent hits on him, and not simply get some jersey and pull him down. But they never really did.
5. Billy Sims, Oklahoma (No. 1 pick, 1980)
Grade: 9.7
A great college runner, often on big stages, Sims was a sure thing if healthy. He could turn a small seam into a big gain through a mix of power, speed and shiftiness. He made the Pro Bowl each of his first three seasons, and simply couldn't play after his knee was mangled at a time when medicine couldn't do what it can today.
6. George Rogers, South Carolina (No. 1 pick, 1981)
Grade: 9.7
The guy who was the lead blocker for Rogers at South Carolina went to my high school -- but Rogers would have been a good prospect anyway. A big back for the era at 220 pounds, Rogers was great at spinning off tacklers and using his patience to find cutback lanes, even when his power was adequate enough to take defenders on. He led the NFL in rushing as a rookie, and played seven pretty good seasons in the league.
7. Edgerrin James, Miami (No. 4 pick, 1999)
Grade: 9.7
For some reason, the fact that Bill Polian shocked so many people by taking James instead of Ricky Williams in that draft makes people think James was a reach, a sleeper the Colts were taking a risk on. Well, when you consider that James could run a sub-4.4 40-yard dash at near 200 pounds, had exceptional vision and short-area burst, blocked blitzing linebackers like it was fun and had soft hands as a receiver, you're less blinded by the narrative of that draft year. More than 15,500 NFL yards later
8. Reggie Bush, USC (No. 2 pick, 2006)
Grade: 9.7
He's doomed to be underrated as an NFL player because of his great college career and the probation that followed, but what a prospect. Possessing a sprinter's speed (I had him at a 4.33 40-yard dash), exceptional change-of-direction skills, hands like a wide receiver and the ability to scare defenses wherever you lined him up, Bush offered a lot and still does. The guy averaged 8.7 yards per carry as a junior.
9. Blair Thomas, Penn State (No. 2 pick, 1990)
Grade: 9.7
A very good college player -- and a better athlete than people who saw him struggle as a pro realized -- Thomas is one of the few players on this list who never really came close to his full potential in the NFL. He finished with just 2,236 career yards in the NFL and saw injuries usher him out of the league.
10. (Tie) Freeman McNeil, UCLA (No. 3, 1981)
Grade: 9.6
Given the era we're in now, the reported 40 time I had on McNeil in 1981 was just 4.7. Think about that -- a No. 2 overall pick at running back running a 4.65. What Freeman had was the ability to do everything in an era when few backs did. He was an outstanding all-purpose guy, a runner, blocker and very good pass-catcher -- a guy perhaps a little ahead of his time.
10. (Tie) Marshall Faulk, San Diego State (No. 2 pick, 1994)
Grade: 9.6
He didn't see the best competition in the WAC, and it made you wonder if he could be as explosive at the next level, but he proved he could. Faulk was a big play waiting to happen, a brilliant runner off the edge, and, like Bush, a great pass-catcher. I probably should have had him a little higher.
Next best running backs
• Bo Jackson (Auburn, 1987): At the time, he was headed for baseball. But what an incredible talent.
• Garrison Hearst (Georgia, 1993): Injuries robbed him of a better NFL career.
• Marcus Allen (USC, 1982): A very good prospect who made himself a great NFL player.
• Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma, 2007): Brilliant talent, though I hated to see all the carries he endured. He's everything we could have hoped.
• Emmitt Smith (Florida, 1990): Very good, and came into a very good situation.