When I do mock drafts, I'm not simply giving my opinion on where players will go. In fact, I disagree with some of the picks I'm putting down. But the mocks are based on a combination of where players are being valued across the league, how I feel those players are valued by individual teams, what the top needs for each team are, whether they value need over the best player available and so on. It's not an editorial. For this, I was asked, "What would you do if you were picking?" So I gave it a shot. I've listed what I see as the top needs for each team, and I've made the picks that fill needs based on where I have players ranked. A few ground rules:
1. At each spot, I'm making the best pick for that team at that spot. I won't pass on an ideal pick for the Bills at No. 10 just because that player would be a great fit at No. 11.
2. There are no duplicates.
3. I will suggest good spots to trade down, but I won't rearrange the board.
4. This is for fun! One pick can derail a whole draft, so in no way do I think this is how it might look.
With that in mind, let's go through it. I'll discuss motives for each team in the analysis.
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Regrading the 2011 NFL draft
NFC East
Top needs: G/C, CB, OLB, SS, DE, TE
Rd. 1 (14) S Mark Barron, Alabama
Rd. 2 (45) OLB Andre Branch, Clemson
Rd. 3 (81) CB Justin Bethel, Presbyterian
Analysis: The Cowboys need to shore up their coverage and get a lot of help here in the secondary and with an added piece in the pass rush. Barron makes too much sense. He has a good chance to be there at No. 14, and in this simulation he was. He provides an immediate upgrade. Branch is a guy scouts disagree on, but only on whether he's got the talent of a late-first-round grade. Midway through Round 2, Dallas can't go wrong, and he'll provide depth on the edge. You can't have too many pass-rushers. Bethel could be one of the sleepers of the draft. A star at Presbyterian, he has plenty of physical talent, and Dallas isn't out of the woods in the secondary because of the addition of Brandon Carr.
Top needs: RB, OL, TE, LB, CB, WR
Rd. 1 (32) TE Coby Fleener, Stanford
Rd. 2 (63) RB David Wilson, Virginia Tech
Rd. 3 (94) OT Donald Stephenson, Oklahoma
Analysis: I've liked Fleener to the Giants for a while. I think he just provides something that passing game doesn't have. Remember, Fleener won't just line up off tackle; you can split him out and use his size and speed to work matchups with smaller corners or slower linebackers. Teams will spend a lot of time looking at how to slow the momentum the Giants should carry over with their passing attack, and Fleener adds something new to account for. Wilson provides power and explosiveness in the run game, and Stephenson is the requisite pick this team needs to make to keep some semblance of depth on the offensive line.
Top needs: OLB, SS, OT, DT, TE/FB, QB
Rd. 1 (15) DT Fletcher Cox, Mississippi State
Rd. 2 (46) LB Zach Brown, North Carolina
Rd. 2 (51) TE Dwayne Allen, Clemson
Rd. 3 (88) QB Kirk Cousins, Michigan State
Analysis: He's not quite as high on my board as he is on Todd McShay's, but Cox is the real deal. The Eagles can get to quarterbacks, but they were awful up the middle last year. Cox can be a big part of the solution. So will Brown, who provides the linebacker they need with proper value in Round 2. Suddenly, if I'm Philly, I'm feeling a lot better about the interior of my defense, with Cox, Brown and the addition of DeMeco Ryans. Allen is the second-best tight end in the draft and a great value here. The Eagles have hinted that they could look for a quarterback to develop, and Cousins makes a lot of sense. He has the chance to be a good starter in this league if he gets some seasoning. He's coachable and has underrated physical talent; I love the value late in the third. I did consider tackle options, but the addition of Demetress Bell obviously shifts that need down a notch.
Top needs: QB, S, RT, ILB, CB, G/C
Rd. 1 (2) QB Robert Griffin III, Baylor
Rd. 3 (69) OT Zebrie Sanders, Florida State
Analysis: Enjoy this first-round pick, Redskins fans, because it'll be the last one for a while. RG3 has shown he's no reach, however, and given the additions to the wide-receiving corps, he has a pretty good shot to get off to a good start as a rookie. That said, Washington surely can't buy into the idea that one adequate offensive lineman (Trent Williams) will be enough just because RG3 can run. This is a kid who wants to pass, show off his patience, see deep routes develop and show off that arm. Bringing in Sanders to start out on the right side will help buy a little more time. Sanders isn't incredible value at No. 69, but he's right about there, and need supersedes the value here if I'm making the pick.
NFC North
Top needs: OL, DE, CB, WR, DT, S
Rd. 1 (19) DE Whitney Mercilus, Illinois
Rd. 2 (50) WR Brian Quick, Appalachian State
Rd. 3 (79) DT Devon Still, Penn State
Analysis: The Bears really need to shore up the offensive line, but they've expressed a lot of optimism -- particularly offensive coordinator Mike Tice -- and I can see them waiting around to add help. So I'll play along. Clearly, they've talked me into it, as I'm also looking elsewhere, targeting the pass rush in Round 1. Mercilus is a one-year wonder in terms of production, but the tape shows a guy who figured it out, and if he can play at the level he did in 2011 (I have no reason to believe it'll disappear), he fits the system in Chicago and can close on quarterbacks when he gets the edge. Quick is another huge target (6-foot-4, 220) for Jay Cutler, and while I think Chicago needs to go O-line here, the way the board lines up for this Quick is a steal, and a couple of O-line options I can see here look like reaches. I'm not married to this pick, but it wouldn't be a bad one for need and value. Still is a steal this late, and I might have left him on the board too long. The Bears do want help at defensive tackle, and Rod Marinelli can do a lot with Still.
Top needs: CB, RB, OL, LB, S
Rd. 1 (23) LB Lavonte David, Nebraska
Rd. 2 (54) CB Trumaine Johnson, Montana
Rd. 3 (85) S George Iloka, Boise State
Analysis: Remember, this is my draft. And in my draft, David is unquestionably a first-round pick. He played undersized, but I can see him piling up tackles as a weakside 'backer. He plays sideline to sideline and has the explosiveness to cause problems in blitzing situations. He also can dip and run with running backs flared out, or tight ends. The Lions like what they have up front; it's now time to find some playmakers in the secondary. Johnson is a bigger corner who will make plays and is a solid value in Round 2. Iloka, a safety out of Boise State, is a little overrated for me when you talk about a second-round grade, but I love the value in the third. Offensive line is also a huge need, but this is the way the value lined up for me, and I consider this trio to hit three needs.
Top needs: OLB, FS, DE, RB, CB, C, QB
Rd. 1 (28) OLB Shea McClellin, Boise State
Rd. 2 (59) DE Jared Crick, Nebraska
Rd. 3 (90) S Antonio Allen, South Carolina
Analysis: I originally had Upshaw of Bama here, but I like the McClellin fit better and have moved Upshaw to New England because Green Bay picks first. McClellin might be a little big to drop and play in space like a traditional 3-4 outside linebacker, but if Packers defensive coordinator Dom Capers allows him to make getting to the quarterback his primary goal, he has a chance to help early and develop in other areas. He's a really smart player and will pick things up quickly, and provides help for a pass rush that is desperate. Crick might be a bit of a reach on some boards, but if he's fully healthy (he will be after tearing a pectoral muscle during the season), I like his fit here. Green Bay's pass rush was as bad as any other team's in the NFL for much of last season, and Crick and Upshaw are solid additions to the front seven. Allen is a good developmental safety prospect.
Top needs: CB, LT, WR, S, G, LB
Rd. 1 (3) OT Matt Kalil, USC (attempt to move down)
Rd. 2 (35) S Harrison Smith, Notre Dame
Rd. 3 (66) WR Marvin McNutt, Iowa
Analysis: Corner is a big need for me if I'm Minnesota, which is why I can see the Vikings being very tempted to select Morris Claiborne, but left tackle is equally important. If they don't protect Christian Ponder, they really won't be able to effectively audit his progress. I put trading down as an option because I do it if it's clear a team will give up a ton of value to get into that No. 3 slot, so the Vikings should be entertaining offers all the way. But if that can't happen, they should be plenty happy to add Kalil, a rare tackle ready to start right away on the left side. The pick of Smith in Round 2 shores up a significant need at safety, and McNutt in Round 3 fills a void at wide receiver. He gives Minnesota a bigger target and different dimension to pair with the smaller Percy Harvin.
NFC South
Top needs: DE, OL, OLB, CB, TE
Rd. 2 (55) OT/G Kelechi Osemele, Iowa State
Rd. 3 (84) DE Olivier Vernon, Miami
Analysis: Atlanta fans might not be familiar with the names, but both guys should be able to find their way into the rotation because they play need positions. Osemele played left tackle at Iowa State, but he's a guy I'm looking to move inside to become a mauler in the run game. He has the size (333 pounds) to engulf smaller defenders, and you'll see that because he can get to the edge and flatten linebackers. He's a nice addition up front. Vernon is a 4-3 defensive end prospect who shows a good first step and can develop as a pass-rusher but also holds up pretty well against the run. Both guys are needs picks, but there isn't a value sacrifice.
Top needs: DT, CB, DE, WR, OLB, OL
Rd. 1 (9) LB Luke Kuechly, Boston College
Rd. 2 (40) DE Nick Perry, USC
Analysis: This is probably the first big surprise on the board. I don't have linebacker as a top-three need for the Panthers, but there are two things about this pick I like:
1. Kuechly is at No. 9 on my Big Board, which is extremely high for a guy who has played interior linebacker. He has incredible instincts, will help shut down the run and covers really well.
2. The Panthers have been decimated by injuries to their linebackers in recent years, and Kuechly can play right away and provide a lot of insurance. The Panthers need help up front, but you can build around Kuechly.
Perry is just major value in Round 2. It honestly wouldn't shock me if some team took him in the mid-first round, so getting a pass-rusher like him here is a huge get.
Top needs: DE, CB, DT, OLB, WR
Rd. 3 (89) DT Akiem Hicks Regina (Canada)
Analysis: A lot of people won't know about Hicks, given that he played up in Regina (Saskatchewan), but he was recruited to LSU to be a difference-maker and could be a steal as an impact defensive tackle this late. He needs some technique work, as you'd expect, but he has pretty quick feet for a guy tipping the scales around 320 pounds. The Saints don't have a pick in the first round because of the deal that netted them Mark Ingram in last year's draft, and their second-round pick this year had to be forfeited.
Top needs: CB, RB, LB, SS, TE
Rd. 1 (5) CB Morris Claiborne, LSU
Rd. 2 (36) RB Doug Martin, Boise State
Rd. 3 (68) LB Demario Davis, Arkansas State
Analysis: I know the pick of Claiborne won't be a surprise to anyone, but it's just a really safe pick. Claiborne doesn't blind you with speed, but everything else is there to make him a Pro Bowl-caliber corner for a long time. I have running back as a big need for this team, and Martin makes a lot of sense to me early in Round 2. I actually have LaMichael James rated higher on my Board, but Martin is a really complete back and could become the lead horse if LeGarrette Blount is around for only one more year. It's also clear the team is looking for a complement to Blount in the meantime, and coach Greg Schiano hasn't been shy about Blount's fumbling issues. Linebacker is a need spot, and Davis is right about there in terms of where I have him graded.
NFC West
Top needs: OT, WR, OLB, DE, S
Rd. 1 (13) OT Riley Reiff, Iowa
Rd. 3 (80) DE Tyrone Crawford, Boise State
Analysis: It's not a secret that Arizona needs to do something at tackle, and Reiff becomes a very good value if he falls to No. 13. I can see up to three teams taking him before this spot, but when I'm playing GM, this is where he lands. He could start immediately on the right side with the move to left as he develops. The Cardinals are out of the mix in Round 2, but I have them taking an intriguing pass-rusher in Round 3. Crawford will play between 275 and 285 pounds, and he has a lot of strength to stand up versus the run but a really athletic streak as well. What you like about him is the versatility, again becoming a bigger need as teams show more and more looks.
Top needs: RG, WR, S, CB, RB, OLB
Rd. 1 (30) G Kevin Zeitler, Wisconsin
Rd. 2 (61) WR Rueben Randle, LSU
Rd. 3 (92) DT Mike Martin, Michigan
Analysis: Well, I know 49ers fans won't jump up and down about the guard pick, but let's be clear about San Francisco. Regardless of who it adds in the passing game, it's clear to all that Alex Smith isn't going to become Aaron Rodgers, and if this team wants to be successful on offense, it simply has to be able to run the ball, and with power. In many years, Zeitler would be the top guard taken. He will come in capable of starting. I'm also really tempted by WR Stephen Hill in this spot. But instead of that, I get a nice value in the passing game with Randle, a guy with good size capable of stretching the field, late in Round 2. If Randy Moss provides something in 2012, Randle could develop late as a threat and then become a starter in 2013. Martin is insurance for the 49ers because Justin Smith played at such an incredible level in 2011 that the thought of him being injured should scare San Francisco. If Martin plays with Smith's motor, he could develop into a good 3-technique in that scheme.
Top needs: DE, LB, WR, RB
Rd. 1(12) DE Quinton Coples, North Carolina
Rd. 2 (43) LB Ronnell Lewis, Oklahoma
Rd. 3 (75) WR Keshawn Martin, Michigan State
Analysis: Coples has dropped a bit in the past month, as I sense that a lot of personnel folks aren't of the belief that he has a really high ceiling. But at No. 12, you're still talking about getting the guy who most saw as the most complete 4-3 defensive end prospect in this draft class for the better part of two years. Coples can play. Lewis is a pretty dynamic physical talent who struggled a bit when Oklahoma asked him to play linebacker. However, coach Pete Carroll can work magic with these types. As a "Leo" LB, he can use his good size and athleticism in the same way Carroll has used Chris Clemons. Lewis can be a pass-rusher for the Seahawks. This defense is turning into something with these pieces. Martin is a quick receiver who could work all over. He's not a deep threat, but he turns tight spaces and press coverage into wide-open passing lanes because he's really proficient at creating space with quickness and smarts. Keep an eye on him.
Top needs: WR, OL, CB, OLB, DT, RB
Rd. 1 (6) WR Justin Blackmon, Oklahoma State
Rd. 2 (33) OT Mike Adams, Ohio State
Rd. 2 (39) DT Kendall Reyes, Connecticut
Rd. 3 (65) RB Lamar Miller, Miami
Analysis: I know St. Louis has been listening on this pick and could move down, but if the price isn't right, the pick of Blackmon would be. He might not have the upside of a superstar, but he has the floor of a very good player. He's proficient at doing anything a receiver must: He'll get open, create space, fight for and work back to the ball and work underneath as well as over the top. Adams isn't a mauler, but he can really move his feet and could help at right tackle early with the upside of a pretty good left tackle, which is nothing to scoff at. Reyes is a steal at No. 39 if he's around and should fit well inside on this improving defensive line. Miller can be explosive and will take the load off the great Steven Jackson. Some help on both sides of the ball here, with a focus on getting a dreadful offense back on track.