When I do mock drafts, I'm not simply giving my opinion on where players will go. In fact, I disagree with some of the picks I'm putting down. But the mocks are based on a combination of where players are being valued across the league, how I feel those players are valued by individual teams, what the top needs for each team are, whether they value need over the best player available and so on. It's not an editorial. For this, I was asked, "What would you do if you were picking?" So I gave it a shot. I've listed what I see as the top needs for each team, and I've gone ahead and made the picks that fill needs based on where I have players ranked. A few ground rules:
1. At each spot, I'm making the pick best for that team at that spot. I won't pass on an ideal pick for the Bills at No. 10 just because that player would be a great fit at No. 11.
2. There are no duplicates anywhere.
3. I will suggest good spots to trade down, but I won't rearrange the board.
4. This is for fun! One pick can derail a whole draft, so in no way do I think this is how it might look.
With that in mind, let's go through it. I'll discuss motives for each team in the analysis.
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Regrading the 2011 NFL draft
AFC East
Top needs: LT, WR, OLB, CB, QB
Rd 1 (10) WR Michael Floyd, Notre Dame
Rd 2 (41) OT Jonathan Martin, Stanford
Rd 3 (71) LB Mychal Kendricks, California
Analysis: Not in order, but I've hit my top three needs if I'm Buffalo. There are front offices that have Floyd as the top wide receiver in the draft, so getting him at No. 10 is pretty fair, given I've had him at about that spot on my Big Board. Floyd is a big target who will pick up the route tree quickly and give Ryan Fitzpatrick a much-needed new option. Martin is a guy who once carried a solid first-round grade and could be a total steal at No. 41. Kendricks has immense physical talent and could be plugged in immediately, something the team did with Kelvin Sheppard last year.
Top needs: QB, WR, DE, T/G, S, OLB
Rd 1 (8) QB Ryan Tannehill, Texas A&M (only if they can't trade down)
Rd 2 (42) WR Kendall Wright, Baylor
Rd 3 (72) G James Brown, Troy
Rd 3 (73) CB Brandon Boykin, Georgia
Analysis: Now, I know I've been down on Tannehill. He has immense upside, but I think the hysteria about Miami actually trading up to get him is a little ridiculous. I can't reflect trades down, but what I'd like to see is Miami move down and actually dare some teams behind them to take Tannehill. I'd feel a lot better about the pick further down the board. Still, this is a pick I can talk myself into, because in terms of situation, I can't see a better one. Offensive coordinator Mike Sherman knows Tannehill and head coach Joe Philbin knows how to develop QBs, so they should have a good program in place to make this work. This pick won't bother me -- if they moved up five spots? Different story. Wright is a total steal here, as he could be gone in the 20s. He can develop into the No. 1 target Miami now lacks with the departure of Brandon Marshall. Brown can step in on the O-line, which should be a strength for Miami, and Boykin can play early after a career dealing well with elite competition in the SEC.
Top needs: DE, OLB, S, WR, CB, DL, G/C
Rd 1 (27) OLB Courtney Upshaw, Alabama
Rd 1 (31) CB Janoris Jenkins, North Alabama
Rd 2 (48) CB Josh Robinson, Central Florida
Rd 2 (62) G Brandon Brooks, Miami (OH)
Rd 3 (93) WR Chris Givens, Wake Forest
Analysis: This is a team that needed to make big strides with personnel on defense, and in Upshaw the Patriots get a talented, smart pass-rusher who could be scheme-versatile on the edge. And he can get to the quarterback. Jenkins is the shot to get extraordinary value with a little risk involved. (The Patriots did the same with Rob Gronkowski, with a different set of risks.) On a talent basis, this is an elite player. Get him in a team environment and he could thrive. Robinson is an absolute flyer (literally one of the fastest two or three players in the draft) at corner and has star potential if he cleans up his technique; he's also good insurance on Jenkins, and we've seen the Patriots double up recently with running backs and tight ends. Brooks is insurance on the offensive line, and Givens adds depth at wide receiver, something they really need.
Top needs: OLB, WR, S, RT, RB, LB
Rd 1 (16) DT Michael Brockers, LSU
Rd 2 (47) WR A.J. Jenkins, Illinois
Rd 3 (77) OLB Jonathan Massaquoi, Troy
Analysis: When it's all said and done, if I'm New York I feel like I may have gotten one of the two best defensive tackles in the draft in terms of immediate impact. Brockers is a big, high-motor player who can collapse pockets from the inside and move like a much lighter player. He'll thrive under coach Rex Ryan, and the addition of him and Massaquoi in Round 3 should have the Jets ecstatic about the possibilities up front. Jenkins is a very good wide receiver out of Illinois who some personnel people see as worthy of a late-first-round pick, so getting him midway through Round 2 is a nice value.
AFC North
Top needs: G/C, OLB, WR, S, DL
Rd 1 (29) C Peter Konz, Wisconsin (or trade down)
Rd 2 (60) OLB Terrell Manning, N.C. State
Rd 3 (91) WR Joe Adams, Arkansas
Analysis: If I'm Baltimore, I look to trade down at least a few slots. When your top need is on the interior of the offensive line, you're in good position to pile up some picks and look for one of the top players available into Round 2. For this exercise, I'll take Konz and feel good knowing I have the best center in the draft. Matt Birk can still play, but this is a clear position of need. Baltimore lost Jarret Johnson this offseason, but getting a talent like Manning has the potential to soften that blow. Adams is a guy who can come in and work underneath; he'll complement the other wide receivers in that offense well.
Top needs: RG, WR, CB, DE, SS, RB
Rd 1 (17) CB Stephon Gilmore, South Carolina
Rd 1 (21) G David DeCastro, Stanford
Rd 2 (53) CB Jayron Hosley, Virginia Tech
Rd 3 (83) G Tony Bergstrom, Utah
Analysis: A good session of checking off top needs. Gilmore is a big, physical corner who comes in ready to play. I'm thrilled if I'm Cincy and he's still sitting there at No. 17; he's a smart kid who will pick things up and can contribute to a team looking to take the next step in the playoffs. DeCastro is a big-time prospect at guard, and the Bengals can draft him and assume improvement in the run game, where they really struggled in 2011. He may be the best guard prospect since Steve Hutchinson, and guard is a big need for them. Hosley provides more depth at corner. He has the instincts of a Round 1 pick and can be a playmaker but doesn't have the size to get the elite tag on most boards. Bergstrom can play early if needed, but is good insurance.
Top needs: QB, RB, WR, RT, CB, OLB
Rd 1 (4) RB Trent Richardson, Alabama
Rd 1 (22) T/G Cordy Glenn, Georgia
Rd 2 (37) QB Brandon Weeden, Oklahoma St.
Rd 3 (67) CB Dwight Bentley, Louisiana-Lafayette
Analysis: Richardson is simply a home run at No. 4. You rarely say that about a running back taken so high, but he has such a high floor as a prospect -- the only downside is injury, and that's such a perpetual issue, one that extends far beyond the running back position if you're looking close. Glenn is a versatile player who Cleveland will move to right tackle. He can be dominant as a run-blocker and has great initial pop, and with his presence, Joe Thomas on the left side and Richardson in the backfield, Cleveland has to feel pretty confident in an upgrade for the ground attack. Weeden is capable of pushing Colt McCoy right away (he's a few years older) and could be a steal. So he's older -- if the Browns get 6-8 good years from him, will anybody really care? Bentley is a nice piece at corner, where the team can use some help, even though I consider this a pretty good secondary.
Top needs: G/T, NT, ILB, CB, WR, RB
Rd 1 (24) ILB Dont'a Hightower, Alabama
Rd 2 (56) G/T Jeff Allen, Illinois
Rd 3 (86) DT Brandon Thompson, Clemson
Analysis: Hightower fits like a glove in defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau's system. This guy diagnoses plays at an NFL level already, then the physical side takes over. He's tall for a middle linebacker, takes away windows over the middle and packs an enormous punch, playing inside at over 260 pounds. The Steelers have built up some depth at linebacker, but in Hightower they're drafting a starter who can uphold the elite tradition. Since I'm the GM, the other guy I consider here is Bobby Massie, a rising tackle prospect. But I can take Allen later -- he could take over on the right side if Marcus Gilbert heads to the right side. Thompson would be an absolute steal that late in Round 3, and the Steelers need talent up front. While he's not a pure nose tackle in that system, they simply need upgrades on the defensive line, and he can play early.
AFC South
Top needs: WR, LB, G/T, CB, NT
Rd 1 (26) OT Bobby Massie, Ole Miss
Rd 2 (58) WR Alshon Jeffery, South Carolina
Rd 3 (76) LB Bobby Wagner, Utah St.
Analysis: One of the quiet stories of the offseason is the work Houston will have to do on the offensive line to keep its very efficient run game rolling. Massie is a guy moving up my board, and if I'm Houston I know where my bread is buttered and make sure things up front are in good shape. As a caveat, I'll say I'm really tempted here by Coby Fleener, the tight end out of Stanford. Houston lost a good one this offseason in Joel Dreessen. In Round 2, Jeffery is there as a nice piece to put across the formation from Andre Johnson. Jeffery won't stretch the field by blowing by people, but watch the tape and you'll see a guy who often just physically overwhelms smaller corners and safeties. Houston's play-action attack will be able to create favorable matchups for him. The Texans moved DeMeco Ryans, knowing they could fill his role in the draft, and Wagner is a guy I think can do the job.
Top needs: QB, WR, DL, CB, OL, TE
Rd 1 (1) QB Andrew Luck, Stanford
Rd 2 (34) DT Jerel Worthy, Michigan St.
Rd 3 (64) WR Ryan Broyles, Oklahoma
Analysis: I'm a pretty savvy GM, taking this Luck kid, huh? Really out in front of the pack! Needless to say, I think Luck is a lock on my board and Indy's as well. That's your Week 1 starter. Worthy runs a little hot and cold, but when he's on the warm side of that equation, he is a first-round talent at defensive tackle the Colts can say they got in Round 2. Roll the film when he's up against Notre Dame, Michigan or Georgia last year and see how hard it is for even some really good offensive linemen to keep him in place. The Colts have to stop the run, and it starts inside. Broyles has the talent of a Round 1 pick, but we'll take the chance here. He ran a 4.57 40-yard dash last week just months off an ACL injury, and when he's fully recovered he'll be just what Luck needs -- a wide receiver who flat-out knows how to diagnose, get open and operate in space.
Top needs: DE, WR, CB, RT
Rd 1 (7) DE Melvin Ingram, South Carolina (or trade down)
Rd 2 (38) WR Stephen Hill, Georgia Tech
Rd 3 (70) CB Josh Norman, Coastal Carolina
Analysis: The Jags need pass-rush help so bad, even if Justin Blackmon were somehow still there at No. 7, I'm not sure they pull the trigger. Ingram, if he can do anything, can rush the passer. The guy is wonderfully versatile, and even with his short arms he disengages really well and falls back on an arsenal of moves. This is not an elite class of pass-rushers, in my opinion, but the Jags can say they got the one who grades out best as of draft day. You can do worse at No. 7. Hill provides help stretching the field in Round 2. He is remarkably explosive given his long frame (he ran sub-4.4 at 6-foot-4). Still needs plenty of refinement coming out of Georgia Tech's run-first (and second) offense, but he gives the Jags something they don't have on the roster, even with the addition of Laurent Robinson. Norman is much-needed help at corner, so the top three needs are punched out.
Top needs: CB, DE, C, OLB, S
Rd 1 (20) CB Dre Kirkpatrick, Alabama
Rd 2 (52) DE Vinny Curry, Marshall
Rd 3 (82) C Ben Jones, Georgia
Analysis: Knocking out the needs here, with good value at each spot. Kirkpatrick is ready to start. The star out of Alabama has uncommon length at near 6-3 and plays with an edge. He'll come in willing to take on top receivers. After some misses in recent drafts, the Titans need to keep going back to the pass rush. The addition of Kamerion Wimbley helps, but Curry will be able to add some punch. He's an awesome kid, works like crazy and played through the loss of his mother in 2011. He's also pretty versatile, so the Titans can move him around. I have center as a top need, and Jones is the best one in the draft after Konz. He can come in and start if needed.
AFC West
Top needs: DT, RB, CB, WR, G/C, QB
Rd 1 (25) DT Derek Wolfe, Cincinnati
Rd 2 (57) RB LaMichael James, Oregon
Rd 3 (87) WR T.Y. Hilton, Florida International
Analysis: I'm the GM here, and Wolfe is one of my biggest sleepers in this draft. He is an explosive, scheme-versatile player and fills a big need on the defensive interior. I trust the Broncos with making talent work regardless of the "system" fit (see: Von Miller), and Wolfe could be a really good one. They simply have to add talent on the interior of the defensive line, and Wolfe makes sense. I love the idea of James keeping linebackers' eyes in the backfield on play-action fakes or swinging out into the flat for Peyton Manning. He's not quite Darren Sproles in terms of elusiveness, but he's in that category. He'll provide a change of pace the offense needs. Hilton is a good value in the third round and fills a need at wide receiver.
Top needs: NT, LG, S, DE, CB, WR
Rd 1 (11) DT Dontari Poe, Memphis
Rd 2 (44) G Amini Silatolu, Midwestern St.
Rd 3 (74) NT Alameda Ta'amu, Washington
Analysis: The Chiefs really need a nose tackle, and while Poe is not yet a finished product, and might even be as good or more successful in a 4-3, it's really hard to pass on his potential at this spot on the board. Guard is a huge need for the Chiefs, and I'm going to take one of my favorite sleepers in the draft with Silatolu here. He'll be able to help them early, and anything the Chiefs can do to invigorate the run game will be key. Ta'amu is a wide body and good insurance piece for the Chiefs at NT. In fact, I can see Poe and him on the field at the same time.
Top needs: DL, TE, WR, OLB, RB, LG
Rd 3 (95) OLB Bruce Irvin, West Virginia
Analysis: The Raiders are left with this one pick, a product of the Carson Palmer trade, and the decision to draft Terrelle Pryor in the supplementary draft last summer. Irvin is the quintessential high-risk, high-reward pick here. The Raiders need help in the pass rush, and Irvin has the chance to fill out a little more and still maintain a great first step and closing burst. The question is whether he can get stronger and take on NFL tackles without getting engulfed.
Top needs: OLB, S, CB, RB, OL, DE
Rd 1 (18) OLB Chandler Jones, Syracuse
Rd 2 (49) S Brandon Taylor, LSU
Rd 3 (78) RB Isaiah Pead, Cincinnati
Analysis: The Chargers need an outside 'backer, and Jones is moving up as fast as any player in the draft. He has the size to hold up as a 4-3 defensive end, but I don't think he'll have a tough time working effectively in San Diego's scheme. The Chargers also need help at safety, and the way it lines up Taylor would be the best one available at No. 49. The way the board lined up when I was making all the picks had Pead as a steal in Round 3 versus the Chargers reaching a bit at corner. That's three for four on the top needs, and they can grab a corner later on.