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No. 13: Denver Nuggets
Last Season: 30-52
12th place in West; missed playoffs
In 2012-13, the Denver Nuggets were one of the league's most pleasant surprises, winning 57 games without an All-Star. After the Nuggets were upset in the opening round, however, general manager Masai Ujiri left for a more lucrative position in Toronto and head coach George Karl was fired. Since then, Denver has won a combined 66 games while losing 98.
Following a 30-52 season, there are signs Denver is again moving in the right direction. The Nuggets have amassed extra draft picks to go along with a young core of Kenneth Faried, Danilo Gallinari, Jusuf Nurkic and rookie Emmanuel Mudiay, and new head coach Michael Malone should bring a steadier hand on the sidelines. But Denver still has a ways to go before returning to the playoffs, let alone reaching the heights of 2012-13.
The Nuggets began last season with the expectation they would contend for the postseason. After all, their 36-46 finish in 2013-14 had been marred by injuries, with Denver losing the fourth-most games due to injury of any NBA team, according to my research. So it came as a surprise when the Nuggets lost six of their first seven games. While they got over .500 once, and were still in the mix at 18-20 in mid-January, Denver went 2-19 through March 1 to fall firmly into the lottery picture.
That stretch cost Brian Shaw his job as head coach after less than two rocky years at the helm. Shaw's ability to connect with players as an assistant with the Los Angeles Lakers and Indiana Pacers didn't translate as a head coach, and he could never establish an identity after trying unsuccessfully to move the Nuggets away from the fast-paced style that has historically been successful for them.
Interim replacement Melvin Hunt gave the team more freedom to run, and Denver responded with six wins in its next eight games, finishing 10-13 under Hunt. Still, the Nuggets' final 30-52 record was the franchise's worst since 2002-03, the season that allowed them to draft Carmelo Anthony.
Denver began turning over its roster during the season. After resisting overtures from the Cleveland Cavaliers, the Nuggets finally dealt them center Timofey Mozgov when the Cavs were willing to offer a pair of future first-round picks for the big man. Denver also got a 2016 protected first-round pick from the Portland Trail Blazers for shooting guard Arron Afflalo, but gave up one of the picks acquired at the deadline to dump the final season and a half of center JaVale McGee's contract on the Philadelphia 76ers.
Sitting seventh in the draft order, the Nuggets lucked out when Mudiay -- considered a possible No. 1 overall pick before going overseas to play in China rather than spending a year at SMU -- dropped to them. The arrival of their point guard of the future didn't sit well with disgruntled starter Ty Lawson, and when Lawson was arrested on DUI charges for the second time in five months, Denver wasted little time sending him to the Houston Rockets for a protected first-round pick and salary relief.
Most of the Nuggets' cap space went to retaining their own players. They re-signed free agents Darrell Arthur, Will Barton and Jameer Nelson while using space to bring over 2014 second-round pick Nikola Jokic on a four-year contract. Denver also got creative with its room, becoming the first team in years to renegotiate contracts (for forwards Gallinari and Wilson Chandler) while simultaneously locking them up to long-term extensions. The Nuggets now have all five starters and nine players in total under contract through 2017-18 but will still have cap room next summer.
If there's one conclusion to be drawn from the Nuggets' offseason, it's that Denver is now in Mudiay's hands. The Nuggets drafted the 19-year-old point guard with the seventh pick in June. Less than a month later, Denver traded starting point guard Ty Lawson to Houston. Those were the biggest transactions of the Nuggets' summer, and they left general manager Tim Connelly optimistic that Denver can improve on its 30-win total from 2014-15.
"I fully expect to be better than last year," Connelly said. "I don't want to put any concrete barometer on what's good or bad this year. But we'll be better. I'm beyond excited about where we are right now. We have a long way to go, but I think we have some foundational pieces to really build off of." -- Ian Begley
Projected Real Plus-Minus for starters
Emmanuel Mudiay, PG: N/A
Wilson Chandler, SG: -0.9
Danilo Gallinari, SF: +1.9
Kenneth Faried, PF: +2.0
Jusuf Nurkic, C: +1.8
Scouting reports on every player on the Nuggets
Using shot data from 2014-15 and projected starters, Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry ranks each team's offensive efficiency based on square footage.
The Nuggets project to shoot a dreadful 32 percent from 3 this season, worst in the NBA. A healthy Gallinari helps, though, and particularly from the left wing, where he shoots 39.2 percent.
Faried takes an absurd 90 percent of his shots from inside nine feet. Great! Efficient! ... Or not. He makes a paltry 53 percent from there.
All About The Space: 29th (265 square feet of above-average offense)
To identify players who stretch offenses the most, ESPN Stats & Information created the Kyle Korver Effect -- a metric on a 1-100 scale, factoring in 3PT%, 3-point attempt rate (percentage of total shots that come from 3-point range) and influence on teammate FG%.
Korver Effect: It took Gallinari (86.9) half a season to shake off the rust stemming from a torn meniscus, but post-All-Star break last season, Gallo shot 40 percent from 3 and posted an elite 119 offensive rating.
There's the makings of another great Denver team here. Nurkic started ahead of schedule as a rookie, Mudiay was the most impressive rookie at the Las Vegas Summer League and Gallinari looked back to normal following his torn ACL after the All-Star break. Add in three extra first-round picks in drafts to come -- plus the option to swap picks with the New York Knicks next year -- and the Nuggets are well-positioned to rebuild.
In the short term, however, the Lawson trade likely ends any real hope of Denver making the playoffs this season. Projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus have the Nuggets among the NBA's five worst teams. And that's OK, as long as Denver develops Mudiay and Nurkic and combines its own pingpong balls with New York's in next spring's lottery. (In fact, simulations based on RPM projections show Denver ending up with the No. 1 pick better than 20 percent of the time, narrowly behind the 76ers for the best odds of any team.) Better days are ahead in the Mile High City.
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