Here are our player scouting reports and 2015-16 projections for the Denver Nuggets.
Projected starters
Emmanuel Mudiay
Position: Guard
Experience: Rookie
2015 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Promising point guard with limited high-level experience after missing most of 2014-15 season in China
+ Good pick-and-roll playmaker who creates for himself and others but is a poor outside shooter at this point
+ Strong, physical defender with excellent size for a point guard
Analysis
Rejoice! Mudiay comes to Denver as the Nuggets' point guard of the future -- and probably of the present, too, after Ty Lawson was traded to the Houston Rockets. A year ago, the notion of drafting Mudiay with the seventh pick was laughable. The question was whether he'd go No. 1 overall. But after bypassing SMU to play in China, Mudiay missed most of the season with a sprained ankle while D'Angelo Russell established himself as the top point guard in the draft. Mudiay was out of shape when he returned for workouts, which didn't help his cause.
Fortunately, Mudiay demonstrated during the Las Vegas Summer League that he's still as talented as any rookie guard. Expectations of immediate production should probably be tempered. Mudiay ended his summer 2-of-14 from 3-point range and with 20 turnovers in five games. His shooting will be an issue. Mudiay made just 57.4 percent of his free throws in China, which limits the value of his ability to get to the basket. On the plus side, Mudiay is already a skilled pick-and-roll operator, and he flashed impressive court vision in Las Vegas, finding open shooters when he drove the lane. That figures to be his best offensive skill this season.
At 6-foot-5 and with good strength, Mudiay should in time be able to defend either backcourt position. That could enable him to play alongside veteran Jameer Nelson at times as a rookie. His size makes Mudiay a presence on the glass.
Wilson Chandler
Position: Forward
Experience: 8 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Veteran 3-and-D role player who can defend multiple positions
+ More of a volume 3-point shooter than an accurate one and not an efficient scorer
+ Effective in transition game, especially when matched up with bigger opponent
Analysis
Chandler's versatility will give new Denver coach Michael Malone a variety of lineup options. He can start Chandler and Danilo Gallinari together as wings, with Chandler defending the better, quicker opponent, or use them both as forwards in a smaller lineup where Chandler typically defends the bigger player. The Nuggets valued that flexibility enough to give Chandler an extension that will pay him $46.5 million over the next four seasons, including a bump of $3-plus million from what he was due to make in 2015-16.
About half of Chandler's shots last year came either in transition, where he can be especially dangerous when playing as a power forward, or off catch-and-shoot situations. He's dramatically increased his 3-point rate the past two seasons, attempting more than five per game while making them at around a 34 percent clip -- good enough to keep defenses honest, but not to make him a dangerous shooter. Chandler can also be used on either end of the pick-and-roll depending on matchups and occasionally posts up as a vehicle to isolate and shoot jumpers off the dribble.
Chandler is decent at defending a variety of players but not particularly good against any of them. ESPN's real plus-minus rates him a below-average defender, and it's hard to find compelling evidence to the contrary. Denver apparently sees him as something more, and may have overvalued its own talent by resisting trade inquiries in favor of an extension for Chandler, who's older than the rest of the core at age 28.
Danilo Gallinari
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Multi-skilled forward whose career was interrupted by a torn ACL in April 2013
+ Good ball handler for a combo forward whose reputation as a shooter exceeds 3-point performance
+ Sacrificed some quickness after the injury, but size has become best defensive attribute
Analysis
The torn ACL Gallinari suffered in April 2013, with the Nuggets cruising to home-court advantage in the Western Conference, proved nearly a two-year injury. Gallinari and the team initially opted against surgery, only to reverse course when the incomplete ACL tear failed to heal naturally. That cost Gallinari the entire 2013-14 season, and he wasn't himself for most of last year. Only after the All-Star break, when he averaged 18.6 points per game, did the pre-injury Gallinari return on a regular basis. Hoping to lock up Gallinari before a breakthrough campaign, Denver renegotiated and extended his contract for an additional two seasons and $33.6 million. Gallinari's impressive play -- and good health -- for Italy in EuroBasket this summer, it's a deal that could prove a bargain.
At his best, Gallinari is one of the league's most complete offensive small forwards. He's a dangerous outside shooter, though his 3-point percentage (36.7 percent career) has never matched his reputation. (Gallinari did make 40.4 percent of his 3s after the break.) He's also a confident ball handler and playmaker who can run pick-and-rolls and set up teammates. Gallinari is especially dangerous when facing bigger defenders in the Nuggets' smaller lineups. Denver has also tried to post him up against smaller opponents, though he really only has a turnaround jumper in his arsenal.
The quickness Gallinari lost after ACL surgery, perhaps temporarily, was most evident at the defensive end of the floor. He struggled, though his size (6-foot-10) can still be a deterrent to opponents even when he's beaten off the dribble. Still, Gallinari was the only Nuggets player with a positive plus-minus on the court last season.
Kenneth Faried
Position: Forward
Experience: 4 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Energetic, athletic forward whose effort was down at times in 2014-15
+ Has shown some ability to create his own shot but is most dangerous in transition and off putbacks
+ Excellent rebounder who will block a shot but not a great help or individual defender
Analysis
On the heels of his starting role for the USA's winning entry in the FIBA World Cup, Denver signed Faried to a four-year, $50 million extension that kicks in this season. Faried promptly responded with the weakest campaign of his career to date. The energy that made "The Manimal" a force in the paint despite his size was missing at times, and the Nuggets will have to hope it was a matter of Faried's relationship with former head coach Brian Shaw. He was a different player after a late-season coaching change.
During the second half of 2013-14, Faried made some progress as a one-on-one scorer in the post. Much of that was lost in 2014-15, as opponents started sitting on Faried's favored right hand and neutralizing his limited arsenal of moves. According to Synergy Sports, Faried shot 34.6 percent on post-up plays, the second-lowest mark among players with at least 100 such attempts. Those misses were the biggest reason Faried shot a career-low 50.7 percent from the field, and he might want to cut them out of his game.
Faried was more effective late in the season playing as a tiny center. That was surprising, given that Faried's defense has been a weakness. His leaping ability helps him block shots, but Faried is frequently out of position on D. Indeed, Denver surrendered 109.0 points per 100 possessions with Faried at center, which would have ranked 29th in the NBA per NBA.com/Stats, but scored at a rate (109.9 points per 100 possessions) that would have been the league's best. Faried told the Denver Post this summer he's working on his defense, and improvement there might make Malone more comfortable using him at the five to take advantage of his quickness edge against opposing centers.
Jusuf Nurkic
Position: Center
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Burly Bosnian big man contributed ahead of schedule as a 20-year-old rookie
+ Creates second chances with sheer strength, but also has good touch around the basket
+ Surprisingly nimble feet for his size and a decent shot blocker
Analysis
Nurkic entered his rookie season as the Nuggets' third center. JaVale McGee's injuries, his precocious performance and the midseason trade of starter Timofey Mozgov allowed the 20-year-old Nurkic to start 27 games and play 1,100 minutes, earning All-Rookie Second Team honors. Nurkic struggled with fouls and turnovers, but showed more than enough to suggest he could be the long-term answer for Denver in the middle. He'll probably be the Nuggets' best option in the short-term, too, once he's recovered from May surgery to repair a partial tear of the patella tendon in his left knee.
Nurkic's strength is, well, his strength. He's built like a bull and plays like one in the paint, pushing opponents under the basket to secure offensive rebounds. Nurkic tends to play on the ground and has a low release point, so he's vulnerable to getting his shot blocked. He compensates with a variety of hooks and sweeping releases, as well as a floater that's unorthodox for a big man. While Nurkic's 2-point percentage (44.6 percent) was too low as a rookie, expect it to improve as he hones his shot selection and creates better looks.
As a defender, Nurkic attempted to contest everything, often to his detriment. He committed 6.8 fouls per 36 minutes, the highest rate among players with at least 1,000 minutes played by a wide margin.
Unofficially, Nurkic also led the league in Slavic curse words, per Grantland's Zach Lowe. He'll learn in time that discretion is key defensively, especially as he plays heavier minutes and needs to stay on the court. Nurkic did block shots at a decent rate for his trouble, and his surprising agility for his size makes him an effective pick-and-roll defender.
Reserves
Jameer Nelson
Position: Guard
Experience: 11 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Aging point guard who showed last season he's still got something left in the tank
+ Primarily a pick-and-roll player, but spent more time playing off the ball in Denver
+ Loss of quickness has been especially problematic on the defensive end
Analysis
For the first month and a half of 2014-15, Nelson was the starting point guard on the best offense in NBA history. Nelson wasn't actually playing particularly well, and concerns about his defense led the Dallas Mavericks to trade him as part of the package for Rajon Rondo. After less than a month in Boston, Nelson was swapped again to the Nuggets to serve as a veteran backup. He opted out of his contract and re-signed for three years and $13.6 million, giving Denver a mentor for rookie Mudiay and insurance if Mudiay struggles early on.
Nelson's shooting bounced back at altitude, and he ended up with his best 2-point percentage (47.2 percent) since 2009-10. Most effective running the pick-and-roll, Nelson rarely gets all the way to the rim these days and is more dependent on pull-up jumpers off the dribble. He's a good enough shooter to keep defenders honest, having hit between 34 and 35 percent of his 3s each of the past three seasons. That skill allowed Nelson to play off the ball alongside departed Lawson at times after joining the Nuggets. He could play the same role occasionally with Mudiay.
As he's aged, Nelson has seen the biggest decline at the defensive end. In his prime, he could compensate for his small stature (listed at 6-foot) with strength and a low center of gravity. Declining quickness has made it more difficult for Nelson to keep up with the league's jets.
Randy Foye
Position: Guard
Experience: 9 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Undersized shooting guard who's been miscast as a point guard at times during his career
+ Good, though not great, 3-point shooter who is increasingly reliant on 3s
+ Gives up too much size to be effective defending wing players and is a poor rebounder
Analysis
Foye missed most of the first half of 2014-15 with a strained quadriceps, and found himself on the fringes of the Denver rotation after his return. The midseason trade of Arron Afflalo opened up more minutes for Foye, who started 21 of the team's 26 games after the All-Star break and averaged 11.7 points per game. As a result, the Nuggets decided to guarantee Foye's $3.1 million salary in the final season of his contract.
After the injury, Foye's shooting suffered. He shot 9-of-36 (25 percent) from downtown and a ghastly 3-of-19 (15.8 percent) but he bounced back to make 38.2 percent of his 3s in the second half of the season. Foye has to be accurate from beyond the arc to be valuable since he's evolved into almost strictly a 3-point specialist. Nearly two-thirds of his shot attempts were triples in 2014-15. As a shooting guard, Foye's ballhandling and playmaking skills are a plus, though he should strictly play point guard in an emergency role.
On defense, Foye's size (he's listed at 6-foot-4, but measured just 6-foot-2 and a quarter at the NBA pre-draft camp) is an issue, along with his poor rebounding. He's simply not big enough to defend many shooting guards, and is only average defensively against players his own size. When he plays with Mudiay, Foye might be able to cross-match and defend point guards.
Will Barton
Position: Guard
Experience: 3 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Aggressive, energetic reserve who thrived in Denver's up-tempo system
+ Good ball handler for a wing but poor outside shooting makes him a liability off the ball
+ Slight physically, which hampers him defensively and is an above-average defensive rebounder
Analysis
Being sent the other direction in the Portland Trail Blazers' trade for Afflalo from the Nuggets was the best thing that could have happened for Barton. Barton's on-and-off role in the Portland rotation was mostly off last season, but he played 24.4 minutes per game in Denver and earned a new three-year, $10.6 million deal as a restricted free agent.
Playing at altitude was perfect for Barton, who excels in the open court. According to Synergy Sports tracking, 29.3 percent of his plays with the Nuggets came in transition, the third-highest rate among players with at least 100 transition points. Much like Corey Brewer once did in Denver, Barton can outrace slower defenders up the court. In the half-court offense, his poor shooting is a much bigger problem. Barton made a career-high 23 3-pointers last season, but at a 28.1 percent clip, freeing defenders to sag off him when he's spotting up. Barton is a capable ball handler, good enough that he served as a third point guard at times in Portland, and he can initiate the offense when playing with a shoot-first lead guard.
A lean 175 pounds, Barton can be pushed around at times by bigger wings, and occasionally requires help in the post. He does have a tendency to make highlight steals and blocks by taking chances on defense, and is a solid defensive rebounder for a wing.
Darrell Arthur
Position: Forward
Experience: 6 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Pick-and-pop big whose development of 3-point range has been inconsistent
+ Heady, reliable defender who is effective against the pick-and-roll game
+ Undersized for a four-man and struggles on the glass
Analysis
With Arthur on the court last season, the Nuggets defended at a rate that would have ranked second in the NBA, per NBA.com/Stats. With him on the bench? Their defensive rating increased by 9.1 points per 100 possessions, and would have ranked 28th. That kind of defensive impact earned Arthur a new two-year deal for Denver's room exception, starting at $2.8 million.
Surely, not all the difference in the Nuggets' defense can be attributed to Arthur, but this isn't a new effect. ESPN's real plus-minus has historically rated him as an excellent defender, and his defensive RPM ranked third among power forwards and 10th overall last season. Arthur is incredibly perceptive defensively and in the right place at the right time. He also moves his feet well defending pick-and-rolls -- well enough that Denver has played him at small forward at times, which is probably not a good idea -- and has solid steal and block rates for a power forward.
Arthur gives up some of his value at the other end. His only real skill is running pick-and-pops, and since he's yet to develop consistent 3-point range -- Arthur made a career-high 26 3-pointers last season, but shot them at a 23.6 percent clip -- those aren't high-value shots. Nearly two-thirds of Arthur's shot attempts came from beyond 16 feet, per Basketball-Reference.com, meaning he rarely gets high-percentage looks at the basket.
J.J. Hickson
Position: Forward
Experience: 7 years
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Pick-and-roll big man who was less effective as a finisher coming off a torn ACL
+ Below-average midrange shooter
+ Poor defensive instincts. Grabs rebounds without helping his team on the defensive glass
Analysis
After starting 52 of his 69 games in 2013-14, Hickson largely played a reserve role last season coming off a torn ACL. His playing time also dropped, from 26.9 minutes per game to 19.3. In part, that's because Hickson wasn't as effective. His 2-point percentage declined from 51.4 percent to 47.7 percent, and despite the injury it was actually better in the first half (50.7 percent) than the second (42.7 percent). Hickson's finishing was down slightly, unsurprisingly, and aside from his one full season in Portland he hasn't been a good enough outside shooter to justify taking a lot of shots outside the paint. He's most dangerous around the basket.
Hickson's defense has always been a liability, particularly when he's asked to play the center position. He doesn't have good help instincts and is only adequate as a rim protector when he is in the right spot. While Hickson tends to rack up rebounds (11.5 per 36 minutes last season), he goes to get the ball rather than boxing out, so Denver cleaned the defensive glass substantially better with Hickson on the bench (75.6 defensive rebound percentage) than on the court (73.0).
Gary Harris
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Multi-talented shooting guard who struggled as rookie with transition to NBA
+ Has yet to demonstrate advertised ability to make NBA 3-pointer
+ A tad undersized defensively and needs to get tougher to make good on defensive potential
Analysis
While Denver got unexpectedly good play from rookie Nurkic, the higher of the two first-round picks the team acquired on draft night from the Chicago Bulls didn't pan out so well right away. Harris, the No. 16 overall pick, saw just 719 minutes of action as a rookie and posted the league's second-worst rating in ESPN's real plus-minus -- 7.1 points per 100 possessions worse than an average player.
Much of the problem was Harris' inability to put the ball in the basket. A 37.6 percent 3-point shooter in two seasons at Michigan State, Harris made just 20.4 percent of his 3s as a rookie. And while the sample (104 attempts) wasn't big, it wasn't tiny either. Among players who shot at least 100 3s, only Lance Stephenson (17.1 percent) made them at a worse rate than Harris. Knocking down the outside shot could unlock the rest of Harris' game. He was effective with the ball in his hands in college, making plays for himself off the dribble and others. That wasn't evident during his rookie season, as Harris had more turnovers than assists.
Harris wasn't particularly good at the defensive end, either. While he's a bit undersized for a shooting guard, Harris had been a strong individual defender at Michigan State. He'll have to get stronger to deal with physical play from NBA wings, who pushed him around on the glass. Harris grabbed just 3.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.
Nikola Jokic
Position: Center
Experience: Rookie
2014 draft profile
Scouting report
+ Skilled Serbian post player who has been a valuable international contributor by age 20
+ Has range to the NBA 3-point line and demonstrates excellent court vision for a big man
+ Unathletic and may struggle to keep up with NBA athletes, particularly at power forward
Analysis
After taking Nurkic in the first round of the 2014 draft, the Nuggets grabbed another top international prospect by taking Jokic 41st overall. At the time of the draft, Jokic was just 19 but had already averaged double figures in the Adriatic League. After another strong season where he averaged 15.4 points and 9.3 rebounds in Adriatic play, Jokic came to Denver on a four-year, $5.6 million deal that has the potential to be a steal.
For a 6-foot-10 post player, Jokic is incredibly skilled. He showed the ability to shoot the NBA 3-pointer during the Las Vegas Summer League, going 2-of-7 from beyond the arc. And while it may be a few years before Jokic is a consistent 3-point threat, he's already dangerous in the high post because of his ability to find teammates as a passer. (Turnovers may be an issue there.) Jokic can also finish around the basket when he does play inside.
The key to Jokic's development will be his ability to find a defensive position. He plays below the rim and projects as a below-average shot-blocker for a center based on his translated European stats. At power forward, Jokic will be challenged by the athleticism of NBA opposition. The question of whether he has a defensive position was a major reason why Jokic slipped to the second round, and it may limit his contributions as a rookie.
Joffrey Lauvergne
Position: Forward
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Lanky French forward/center who joined the Nuggets midseason
+ Most useful offensively around the basket and is working to develop NBA 3-point range
+ Solid rebounder but not really a shot-blocker and he must learn NBA goaltending rules
Analysis
After clearing a roster spot and room under the salary floor, the Nuggets signed 2013 second-round pick Joffrey Lauvergne -- aka King Joffrey -- to a three-year, $5.1 million contract in February. Lauvergne got a 24-game crash course in the NBA that should leave him more comfortable this season.
The 6-foot-11 Lauvergne proved a useful offensive rebounder with his energy. He finished well around the basket, but was hopeless elsewhere, shooting just 6-of-44 (13.6 percent) away from the rim according to Basketball-Reference.com. Denver evidently hopes Lauvergne can develop NBA 3-point range; he was a regular, if not exactly accurate, outside shooter from the FIBA line but went just 3-of-16 beyond the arc with the Nuggets. Lauvergne can make plays as a passer, but at the cost of a high turnover rate -- better than one in six plays he used last season ended in a turnover.
Lauvergne has enough size to play center, and logged about 40 percent of his minutes there last season, but he's not really a shot-blocker. He averaged just 1.3 blocks per 36 minutes. And Lauvergne's strength is more problematic against centers. One area of likely improvement for him this season is understanding the NBA's goaltending rules. Out of habit, he tried to make plays on the ball on the rim, which is legal internationally but not in the NBA.
Nick Johnson
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Combo guard who played primarily off the ball in college but has the body of an NBA point guard
+ Can make plays off the dribble, but thinks score first rather than pass. Developing outside shooter
+ Physical defender who has the ability to pressure opposing ball handlers in the backcourt
Analysis
Of the four players Denver got from the Houston Rockets in return for Lawson, Nick Johnson is on the only one left on the roster at the start of training camp. Though the 2014 second-round pick saw more action in the D-League than the NBA as a rookie, he's got the physical tools to contribute in the league.
The biggest key for Johnson's development will be learning to run the point. He played primarily off the ball at Arizona, where he was named Pac-12 Player of the Year as a junior before declaring for the draft. That likely won't work in the NBA at 6-foot-3, especially since Johnson isn't a great spot-up shooter (he shot 28.3 percent on 3s in the D-League). Johnson can get to the basket off the dribble, and excels at finishing through contact. But he doesn't have a playmaking mentality. Johnson made some progress in the D-League, averaging 5.4 assists per 36 minutes, though he also turned the ball over 4.3 times per 36.
Johnson has proven a much quicker study at the defensive end. His size becomes an asset defending point guards, and Johnson has ample quickness to keep smaller opponents in front of him. The Rockets liked to have Johnson pressure ball handlers in the backcourt, much like starter Patrick Beverley. Despite a relatively low steal rate, Johnson will take chances defensively, and he probably needs to stick to the scheme more consistently.
Mike Miller
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Aging veteran couldn't shake off the rust last season to contribute in Cleveland
+ Nearly exclusively a 3-point shooter at this point, so must rebound beyond the arc
+ Can no longer contain wings defensively
Analysis
Mike Miller parlayed a strong 2013-14 season with the Memphis Grizzlies into the Cleveland Cavaliers' coveted room exception, signing for two years and $5.6 million last summer to rejoin former Miami Heat teammate LeBron James. Miller began the year as a key reserve, a job he quickly lost with poor shooting. Miller's playoff cameo as a replacement for suspended J.R. Smith went poorly, and he saw sparing action the remainder of the postseason even as injuries battered the Cleveland roster. The Cavaliers dealt Miller to Portland in a tax-saving maneuver over the summer, and after the Blazers bought him out Miller signed with the Nuggets to provide veteran leadership.
To justify getting on the court, Miller will have to improve dramatically on last season's 32.7 percent 3-point shooting, far and away the worst mark of his career. Miller shot 45.9 percent in 2013-14, so the skills should still be there if he's physically capable of contributing. Given Miller took 98 of his 114 shots beyond the arc last season, his 3-point percentage is critical. He's certainly not contributing on defense, as he's no longer quick enough to keep up with younger wing players at age 35.
Erick Green
Position: Guard
Experience: 1 year
2015-16 projections
Scouting report
+ Score-first point guard who can put points on the board in bunches
+ Doesn't have playmaking mentality and tends to pound the basketball
+ Not a defensive presence and at a size disadvantage much of the time
Analysis
With just $100,000 of his 2015-16 salary guaranteed, Green will have to convince Denver to eat a guaranteed contract to make the roster. Most likely, that would mean beating Johnson out for the role of third point guard.
Green played 410 minutes as a rookie and did little to change the scouting report on him coming out of Virginia Tech. He's a scorer, pure and simple. Well, last season Green was more of a shooter, since he didn't make those attempts at a high rate (40.9 percent on 2s and 29.8 percent on 3s). Green rarely gets all the way to the basket off the dribble, so he's dependent on outside shots, but he's got the ability to make them. This year's Las Vegas Summer League, where Green made half his 3s and averaged 22.2 points per 36 minutes, is more indicative of his skills.
To stick, Green will have to become a great scorer, because he's not a point guard at all. He handed out just 3.4 assists per 36 minutes, a rate that would only be average for a shooting guard. And Green is too slight defensively, where he plays smaller than his 6-foot-4 height, to make much of an impact at that end of the court.