Note: This is a new, updated version of ESPN's Future Power Rankings of NBA teams. The previous edition ran on Dec. 15, 2009, and the first edition launched on Nov. 10, 2009.
The Future Power Rankings are ESPN Insider's projection of the on-court success expected for each team during the 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 seasons.
Consider this a convenient way to see in what direction your favorite team is headed.
Each of the NBA's 30 teams received an overall Future Power Rating of 0 to 1,000, based on how well we expected each team to perform in the three seasons following this season.
To determine the Future Power Rating, we rated each team in five categories (see table at right).
As you can see, we determined that the most important category was a team's current players and the future potential of those players -- that category accounted for 40 percent of each team's overall Future Power Rating.
At the same time, we looked at many other factors, such as management, ownership, coaching, a team's spending habits, its cap situation, the reputation of the city and the franchise, and what kind of draft picks we expected the team to have in the future.
To reach our ratings in each category, we talked to teams to get a handle on their future strategies, we looked at their contractual commitments and we carefully broke down each roster to figure out which players would improve, which would decline and which would likely depart.
These rankings will evolve as the season moves along, transactions are made, injuries occur, strategies shift and so on. Return from time to time as we update the rankings.
Here are our current rankings, from 1 to 30:
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
1. Oklahoma City Thunder | Future Power Rating: 692
The Thunder have ascended to the top of the rankings thanks to the continued development of their young core and yet another astute trade. This one filched rookie point guard Eric Maynor from Utah, basically for free, and filled a rotation spot where the Thunder had previously been sorely lacking. Up front, meanwhile, the emergence of shot-blocking forward Serge Ibaka adds another piece to their rapidly expanding talent base.
That base still has only two true stars -- emerging MVP candidate and possible scoring champ Kevin Durant and his steadily improving sidekick Russell Westbrook. Fortunately, everything is in place for the Thunder to surround them with even more talent. General manager Sam Presti has preserved his cap space and hoarded draft picks, allowing him to trade from a position of strength to build the roster going forward, and the team draws so well that its small-market status shouldn't be an overwhelming concern.
(Previous rank: 3)
2. Los Angeles Lakers | Future Power Rating: 686
The Lakers seem to have everything going for them -- they are the defending champs, have the league's second-best record, and seem set for the next few seasons, with a nucleus of Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum. And while the Lakers won't have salary cap space this summer to join the superstar free-agent chase, the game remains rigged in their favor, money-wise: L.A. produces the most revenue of any team and can easily stomach paying luxury tax to keep the likes of Gasol and Lamar Odom.
Still, they're only second overall in our rankings because of the uncertainty about coach Phil Jackson's future and how that might relate to Bryant's. Jackson has yet to re-up for next year, and the smoke signals coming from L.A. make one wonder whether the team will look for a less expensive replacement. If so, Bryant could play the ultimate trump card by opting out of his contract and signing elsewhere. Is that far-fetched? Perhaps, but as long as it's in play, it's a risk that warrants mentioning.
The other concern is a paucity of quality young talent. Bynum is the only starter who is likely to get better, rather than worse, over the next three years, and the bench doesn't appear to hold any future stars. With no first-round pick this year, the Lakers will have to hope the current core ages well as they look for opportunities to make trades and sign inexpensive free agents.
(Previous rank: 2)
3. Orlando Magic | Future Power Rating: 674
The Magic dropped from first to third in our latest poll, as the specter of eating the back end of several large contracts looms ever larger in their future. While Vince Carter has increased his production of late, neither he nor several other well-compensated teammates (Rashard Lewis, Jameer Nelson, Marcin Gortat, Brandon Bass, Mickael Pietrus) have delivered at anywhere near the level at which they're paid. All those players still have years to go on their contracts, meaning the small-market Magic could be in a very precarious salary position in another year or two.
That said, Orlando still rated No. 1 in the players category. With a building block center in Dwight Howard who is a virtual certainty to stay with his team (as opposed to the uncertainty surrounding some of the game's other top stars at the moment), the Magic have the foundation of a great team. And while Howard's expensive supporting cast isn't fully earning its pay, there's no doubt that impressive talent surrounds him. With such assets, a couple of the players who haven't seen as much burn, such as Bass and Gortat, could make for great trade chips this summer.
(Previous rank: 1)
4. Miami Heat | Future Power Rating: 653
The Heat held on to the No. 4 position, but the one thing that might worry them is how much competition they'll have for free agents this summer because of what happened at the trade deadline. Miami was hoping to have more salary-cap room than any other team, but New York blew up that plan by trading Jared Jeffries to Houston. Additionally, Chicago's creation of enough cap space to lure away Dwyane Wade presents a significant risk to the Heat's future plans.
Nonetheless, the positives far outweigh the negatives right now. Most signs point to the Heat keeping Wade in South Beach and luring another star to join him, especially given the appeal of the Miami market (No. 2 behind L.A. on our list). Though owner Micky Arison hasn't been willing to outspend other teams, the Heat are a well-run franchise from president Pat Riley on down, and they've made creative use of their salary cap options in the past.
Hence the high ranking. We'd be very surprised if they can't unite Wade with another star to form an Eastern Conference force for the next three seasons.
(Previous rank: 4)
5. Portland Trail Blazers | Future Power Rating: 620
Portland moves up a spot from the last edition of the Future Power Rankings, mostly because the news on its young players has been largely positive. Second-year guard Jerryd Bayless has emerged as an offensive force off the bench, rookies Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph have shown they can contribute, and second-year forward Nic Batum returned from injury with a vengeance.
The Blazers did cash in one chip, trading Travis Outlaw for veteran Marcus Camby, but we had already discounted the likelihood of Outlaw returning. Of greater concern going forward is the uneven second season from Rudy Fernandez and the stalled development of forward LaMarcus Aldridge -- and, of course, our continued questions about Greg Oden's ability to stay healthy.
(Previous rank: 6)
Future Power Rankings: 1-5 | 6-10 | 11-15 | 16-20 | 21-25 | 26-30
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